Try the model
NMSU

New Mexico State 13 at UTEP 20

UTEP
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Sun Bowl
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:15 · Joshua Sloan punt for 48 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 48Pregame prior+29.2Home team on offense+1.4Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Time remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q4 5:43: Ethan Albertson kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — NMSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 29%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:07: Tyrin Smith 9 Yd pass from Gavin Hardison (Gavin Baechle Kick) — UTEP win probability +3.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:55: Ronald Awatt 22 Yd Run (Gavin Baechle Kick) — UTEP win probability +5.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:50: Diego Pavia run for 14 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson PAT MISSED) — NMSU win probability +6.3 pts (now 15%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:43: Diego Pavia run for 11 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK) — NMSU win probability +10.4 pts (now 18%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 8 of 9NMSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 14:57UTEP 4th & 3 at NMSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    87.3%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    86.9%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:42UTEP 4th & 9 at NMSU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    84.3%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:20NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:15UTEP 4th & 8 at UTEP 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:35NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:52NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 29, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:38UTEP 4th & 23 at UTEP 12, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−2.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:33NMSU 4th & 17 at NMSU 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−1.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:17UTEP 4th & 2 at UTEP 36, up 17
    Close callPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:46NMSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:57NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:12UTEP 4th & 20 at UTEP 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%−2.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:22UTEP 4th & 10 at UTEP 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:06NMSU 4th & 7 at UTEP 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−4.8
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:05UTEP 4th & 8 at NMSU 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    91.6%−3.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:50NMSU 4th & 2 at UTEP 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    6.1%−0.4
    68% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−3.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:00UTEP 4th & 3 at UTEP 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:49NMSU 4th & 5 at UTEP 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    6.4%−4.4
    51% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−5.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTEP made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NMSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 7:07UTEP Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:55UTEP Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:50NMSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    12.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:43NMSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTEPDrive 1FG
25 plays · 63 yds · 14:5788% → 84%
Q1 14:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
88.3%
Gavin Hardison run for 9 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q1 14:57
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
88.3%
Ronald Awatt run for 2 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
88.3%
Ronald Awatt run for 2 yds to the UTEP 38Similar
Q1 14:57
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
88.3%
Similar
Q1 14:57
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+20
88.3%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Trent Thompson for 20 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
88.3%
Ronald Awatt run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q1 14:57
2ND & 3
OPP 35
0
88.3%
Gavin Hardison pass incomplete to Reynaldo Flores, broken up by BJ ScularkSimilar
Q1 14:57
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+3
88.3%
Ronald Awatt run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
88.3%
Gavin Hardison run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 14:57
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+4
88.3%
Deion Hankins run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q1 14:57
3RD & 2
OPP 24
-1
88.3%
Ronald Awatt run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q1 14:57
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+12
88.3%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Reynaldo Flores for 12 yds to the NMxSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
88.3%
Ronald Awatt run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 12Similar
Q1 14:57
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
88.3%
Gavin Hardison pass incomplete to Reynaldo FloresSimilar
Q1 14:57
3RD & 9
OPP 12
0
88.3%
pass incomplete to Kelly AkharaiyiSimilar
Q1 6:42
4TH & 9
OPP 12
+29
86.3%
Gavin Baechle 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.0%
pass incomplete to Tyrin SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2INT
6 plays · 49 yds · 3:3715% → 16%
Q1 3:37
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
84.7%
Gavin Frakes pass incomplete to Jamoni Jones, broken up by Blake ThompsonSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
84.2%
Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
84.1%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Ahmonte Watkins for 11 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+36
83.7%
Jonathan Brady run for 36 yds to the UTEP 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-15
83.0%
Gavin Frakes pass complete to Jamoni Jones NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul (Canaan Yarro) to the UTEP 40Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 25
OPP 40
+14
83.6%
Jonathan Brady run for 14 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 3FUMBLE
5 plays · 72 yds · 0:5685% → 85%
Q1 0:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
85.3%
Deion Hankins run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 9 Deion Hankins fumbled, recovered by NMxSt Lazarus WilliamsSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+25
84.0%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to James Tupou for 10 yds to the UTEP 31 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul (Tyriece Thomas) to the UTEP 46Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+36
84.7%
Ronald Awatt run for 36 yds to the NMxSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
85.0%
Ronald Awatt run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 11Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+4
85.0%
Deion Hankins run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:2015% → 15%
Q1 0:20
4TH & 5
OWN 14
+63
85.0%
Josh Carlson punt for 53 yds UTEP Penalty, Offensive holding (Jalen Joseph) to the UTEP 23Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
84.4%
Jamoni Jones run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 14Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 14
0
84.3%
pass incomplete to Jamoni JonesSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 14
0
84.7%
pass incomplete to Jamoni JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:4584% → 83%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
84.0%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Reynaldo Flores for 12 yds to the UTEP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
84.1%
UTEP Penalty, false start (Jeremiah Byers) to the UTEP 30Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 30
0
84.0%
pass incomplete to Tyrin SmithSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+15
84.0%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Ronald Awatt for 15 yds to the UTEP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
84.7%
Ronald Awatt run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 49
-4
84.9%
Ronald Awatt run for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
84.1%
pass incomplete to Tyrin SmithSimilar
Q2 12:15
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
82.8%
Joshua Sloan punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:4017% → 16%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
83.5%
Ahmonte Watkins run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 9
OWN 6
-1
83.6%
Ahmonte Watkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 10
OWN 5
0
84.0%
Gavin Frakes pass incomplete to Jonathan Brady, broken up by Tyrice KnightSimilar
Q2 10:35
4TH & 10
OWN 5
0
83.9%
Josh Carlson punt for 45 yds , Marcus Bellon returns for no gain to the UTEP 5 UTEP Penalty, illegal block (Ilijah Johnson) to the UTEP 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 7TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 3:2883% → 87%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
82.7%
Ronald Awatt run for 2 yds to the UTEP 37Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+14
82.9%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to James Tupou for 14 yds to the NMxSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+20
83.7%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Tyrin Smith for 20 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
83.9%
Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+5
83.9%
Ronald Awatt run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q2 10:35
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+15
83.5%
Gavin Hardison pass incomplete to Reynaldo Flores for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Linwood Crump) to the NMxSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
87.3%
Tyrin Smith 9 Yd pass from Gavin Hardison (Gavin Baechle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 8TD
1 play · 22 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
92.6%
Ronald Awatt 22 Yd Run (Gavin Baechle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9FUMBLE
2 plays · -1 yds · 6:049% → 8%
Q2 6:04
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-2
91.3%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 22 Star Thomas fumbled, recovered by UTEP James NealSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
91.8%
Gavin Frakes run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 24 Gavin Frakes fumbled, recovered by NMxStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 4:529% → 8%
Q2 4:52
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+1
91.5%
Josh Carlson punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTEP 25 , Marcus Bellon returns for 1 yd to the UTEP 25Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.8%
Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
91.7%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Kordell David, broken up by Ilijah JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
91.8%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Justice Powers, broken up by Ilijah JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 11PUNT
3 plays · -13 yds · 3:3892% → 92%
Q2 3:38
4TH & 23
OWN 12
0
92.1%
Joshua Sloan punt for 43 ydsSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.6%
Gavin Hardison pass incomplete to Tyrin Smith, broken up by Dylan EarlySimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 23
OWN 12
0
92.1%
pass incomplete to Jeremiah BallardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 3:388% → 8%
Q2 3:38
2ND & 20
OWN 35
+3
91.6%
Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q2 2:33
4TH & 17
OWN 38
0
92.1%
Josh Carlson punt for 34 ydsSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
91.3%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Jonathan Brady NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Isaiah Mursalat) to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 35
0
91.9%
pass incomplete to Jordin ParkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1793% → 92%
Q2 1:17
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
92.7%
Joshua Sloan punt for 64 ydsSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
92.6%
Ronald Awatt run for 2 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+5
92.5%
Ronald Awatt run for 5 yds to the UTEP 35Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+1
92.3%
Ronald Awatt run for 1 yd to the UTEP 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
91.8%
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
91.8%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15TD
1 play · 14 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
85.4%
Diego Pavia run for 14 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2610% → 9%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
90.5%
Star Thomas run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 2
OWN 38
-2
89.8%
Ahmonte Watkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
90.3%
pass incomplete to Star ThomasSimilar
Q3 7:46
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
90.8%
Josh Carlson punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 10:579% → 7%
Q3 10:57
4TH & 10
OWN 46
+1
91.0%
Josh Carlson punt for 41 yds , Marcus Bellon returns for 1 yd to the UTEP 14Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.2%
Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
92.7%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
92.8%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Jamoni Jones for a 1ST down UTEP Penalty, personal foul (Ty'Reke James) to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
92.4%
Diego Pavia run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-7
92.3%
Diego Pavia sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 16
OWN 40
+6
93.2%
Diego Pavia run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 9:1291% → 95%
Q3 9:12
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
91.1%
Joshua Sloan punt for 55 ydsSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.0%
pass incomplete to Reynaldo FloresSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.0%
Ronald Awatt run for 1 yd to the UTEP 26Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-11
94.8%
Gavin Hardison sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the UTEP 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 7:2292% → 95%
Q3 7:22
4TH & 10
OWN 23
+43
91.8%
Joshua Sloan punt for 43 yds NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, roughing kicker (Keyshaun Elliott) to the NMxSt 34Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
95.0%
pass incomplete to Zach FryarSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
95.0%
pass incomplete to Tyrin SmithSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
94.8%
Gavin Hardison pass incomplete to Tyrin Smith, broken up by Andre SeldonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20MISSED FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 4:069% → 8%
Q3 4:06
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+37
91.3%
Ethan Albertson 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
92.7%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Dominic Gicinto) to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 29
-10
93.2%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Jamoni Jones NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Gabriel Preciado) to the NMxSt 19Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 25
OWN 19
+44
93.2%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 44 yds to the UTEP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+31
92.2%
Diego Pavia run for 31 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+9
91.2%
Star Thomas run for 9 yds to the UTEP 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
91.2%
Diego Pavia run for 3 yds to the UTEP 20Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
91.2%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Justice Powers, broken up by Ty'Reke JamesSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
91.9%
pass incomplete to Kordell DavidSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 21FG
6 plays · 52 yds · 1:2295% → 95%
Q3 1:22
3RD & 10
OPP 30
-3
95.2%
Ronald Awatt run for a loss of 3 yards to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q3 0:05
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+46
94.8%
Gavin Baechle 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
95.0%
pass incomplete to Tyrin SmithSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
95.4%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Reynaldo Flores for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
95.5%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Tyrin Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+13
95.0%
Ronald Awatt run for 13 yds to the UTEP 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 9:177% → 18%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.2%
Ahmonte Watkins run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
93.1%
Diego Pavia run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
92.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 5 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
92.7%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+3
92.4%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+12
92.5%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Chris Bellamy for 12 yds to the UTEP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
92.2%
pass incomplete to Terrell WarnerSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
92.2%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the UTEP 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+14
92.3%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jamoni Jones for 14 yds to the UTEP 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
91.5%
Jamoni Jones run for 5 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+2
91.2%
Diego Pavia run for 2 yds to the UTEP 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+1
91.9%
Jamoni Jones run for 1 yd to the UTEP 24Similar
Q4 7:50
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+3
93.2%
Jamoni Jones run for 3 yds to the UTEP 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
92.3%
Star Thomas run for 11 yds to the UTEP 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
92.3%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 11Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
81.9%
Diego Pavia run for 11 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 4:0092% → 91%
Q4 4:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+4
92.4%
Joshua Sloan punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMxSt 27 , Lawrence Dixon returns for 4 yds to the NMxSt 27Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.3%
pass incomplete to Reynaldo FloresSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.1%
Ronald Awatt run for 3 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
91.2%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Tyrin Smith for 4 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24FUMBLE
13 plays · 60 yds · 0:4913% → 11%
Q4 0:49
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+8
87.0%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 8 yds to the UTEP 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
80.7%
pass incomplete to Kordell DavidSimilar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
81.9%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Grant OberheuSimilar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+11
84.9%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Jonathan Brady for 11 yds to the UTEP 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
80.5%
pass incomplete to Kordell DavidSimilar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 10
OPP 13
-1
84.4%
Diego Pavia run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 14 Diego Pavia fumbled, recovered by UTEP Cal WallerstedtSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
88.2%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+7
87.6%
Star Thomas run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+26
88.0%
Diego Pavia run for 11 yds to the UTEP 48 UTEP Penalty, personal foul (Tyrice Knight) to the UTEP 37Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
84.9%
Diego Pavia pass incomplete to Star ThomasSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-15
85.4%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, personal foul (Shiyazh Pete) to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 25
OWN 48
+6
88.8%
Diego Pavia pass complete to Star Thomas for 6 yds to the UTEP 46Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 19
OPP 46
+14
88.8%
Diego Pavia run for 14 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 25Uncategorized
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
91.2%
Ronald Awatt run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:43
Diego Pavia run for 11 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)
-10.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+8.8
TD · Q3 10:50
Diego Pavia run for 14 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson PAT MISSED)
-6.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com