Try the model
MTSU

Middle Tennessee 34 at Colorado State 19

CSU
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Canvas Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:34 · Cayden Camper 43 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Home team on offense−28.1Pregame prior+5.5Score differential−14.3Garbage-time factor−11.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:37: Frank Peasant run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +14.2 pts (now 46%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 2:26: Zeke Rankin 35 yd FG GOOD — MTSU win probability +17.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:28: Frank Peasant run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +13.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:02: Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 69 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK) — CSU win probability +7.4 pts (now 13%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:57: Tory Horton 17 Yd pass from Clay Millen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — CSU win probability +12.0 pts (now 25%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11MTSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 13:40CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:35CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:06MTSU 4th & 22 at MTSU 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:01CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:02MTSU 4th & 8 at CSU 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    22.4%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:51CSU 4th & 17 at CSU 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:56MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:16CSU 4th & 16 at CSU 8, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−0.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:01MTSU 4th & 4 at CSU 36, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    46.0%−1.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    45.4%−2.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:26MTSU 4th & 3 at CSU 18, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.4%−1.2
    79% to make
    Punt
    48.0%−9.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:52CSU 4th & 17 at CSU 17, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−6.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:00MTSU 4th & 9 at MTSU 46, up 27
    Numbers favored punt by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.2%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    83.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:48CSU 4th & 15 at CSU 20, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:54MTSU 4th & 1 at CSU 39, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    93.8%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    93.8%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:45MTSU 4th & 3 at MTSU 47, up 28
    Close callPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00CSU 4th & 7 at MTSU 34, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    23.3%−0.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    22.0%−1.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:34CSU 4th & 15 at MTSU 26, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−2.2
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    5.5%−5.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:46MTSU 4th & 7 at MTSU 29, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:45CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 33, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.7%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:37MTSU 4th & 2 at CSU 41, up 15
    Close callPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    96.3%−0.7
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%−0.7
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:37CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 30, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.2%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MTSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 11:37MTSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:28MTSU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:41MTSU Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:41CSU Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    6.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:02CSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:57CSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    21.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    21.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 1:1281% → 81%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.2%
A'Jon Vivens run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q1 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.1%
A'Jon Vivens run for 4 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
81.0%
A'Jon Vivens run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 28Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
81.0%
A'Jon Vivens run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 28Similar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
80.7%
Clay Millen pass incomplete to Tory Horton, broken up by Decorian PattersonSimilar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
80.6%
Clay Millen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:40
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
80.6%
Paddy Turner punt for 42 ydsSimilar
Q1 13:35
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
80.6%
Paddy Turner punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:1020% → 21%
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
80.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 5 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+25
80.3%
Frank Peasant run for 25 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+25
80.3%
Frank Peasant run for 25 yds to the ColSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
80.2%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the ColSt 39Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 9
OPP 39
-6
80.2%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Darius Bracy for a loss of 6 yards to the ColSt 45Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 15
OPP 45
-7
80.3%
Chase Cunningham sacked by Mohamed Kamara for a loss of 7 yards to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q1 11:06
4TH & 22
OWN 48
0
79.3%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-32
81.2%
Tra Fluellen 32 Yd Interception Return (Zeke Rankin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 4:0480% → 78%
Q1 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
80.4%
A'Jon Vivens run for 4 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
79.2%
A'Jon Vivens run for 10 yds to the ColSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
78.8%
Clay Millen pass complete to Melquan Stovall for no gain to the ColSt 30Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
78.6%
A'Jon Vivens run for 4 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+1
78.4%
A'Jon Vivens run for 1 yd to the ColSt 35Similar
Q1 9:01
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
77.9%
Paddy Turner punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the MTnSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 3:5922% → 25%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
77.8%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 9 yds to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+26
77.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 26 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
77.5%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the ColSt 36Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+9
77.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 9 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+6
77.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 6 yds to the ColSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
77.4%
Frank Peasant run for 9 yds to the ColSt 12Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+9
77.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 9 yds to the ColSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
77.4%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the ColSt 2Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
77.4%
Darius Bracy run for no gain to the ColSt 2Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-6
77.5%
Darius Bracy run for a loss of 6 yards to the ColSt 8Similar
Q1 5:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
74.6%
Zeke Rankin 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 3:1175% → 71%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
74.6%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
74.7%
Clay Millen pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 9 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
74.9%
Clay Millen sacked by Quindarius Dunnigan for a loss of 10 yards to the ColSt 27Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 20
OWN 27
+7
74.5%
David Bailey run for 7 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 13
OWN 34
-4
74.3%
David Bailey run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 30Similar
Q1 1:51
4TH & 17
OWN 30
0
70.8%
Paddy Turner punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the MTnSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5528% → 29%
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
71.6%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
71.8%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:51
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+5
72.3%
Chase Cunningham run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q1 0:56
4TH & 5
OWN 38
+5
71.1%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 53 yds , Melquan Stovall returns for 5 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:4070% → 68%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
70.4%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the ColSt 16Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 16
-4
69.6%
Clay Millen sacked by Marley Cook for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 12Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 12
-4
69.1%
Clay Millen pass complete to David Bailey for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 8Similar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 16
OWN 8
+12
68.1%
Paddy Turner punt for 45 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 12 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:3931% → 46%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
68.8%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 4 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+3
68.7%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 3 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+30
68.9%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 30 yds to the ColSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
68.6%
Darius Bracy run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 5Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
68.6%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the ColSt 3Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
68.9%
CUNNINGHAM, Chase pass to the right incomplete dropped by ALI, Yusuf thrown to the CSU0. PENALTY CSU Personal Foul on ONYECHI, CJ enforced half the distance from the goal, 2 yards from the CSU3 to the CSU1 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
68.6%
Chase Cunningham run for no gain to the ColSt 1Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
54.4%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10FUMBLE
6 plays · 54 yds · 2:3060% → 58%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
60.4%
A'Jon Vivens run for 2 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+15
60.6%
MILLEN, Clay pass to the right incomplete intended for STOVALL, Melquan thrown to the MTN35. PENALTY MTN Pass Interference on ROSS, Teldrick enforced 15 yards to the MTN43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+20
61.0%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 20 yds to the MTnSt 23 for a 1ST down MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Teldrick Ross) to the MTnSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
61.4%
A'Jon Vivens run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+4
61.4%
A'Jon Vivens run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 6Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
57.5%
A'Jon Vivens run for no gain to the MTnSt 6 A'Jon Vivens fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Ja'Kerrius WyattSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11FG
18 plays · 76 yds · 6:3548% → 67%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-2
51.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Frank Peasant for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 4Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 12
OWN 4
+6
51.8%
Frank Peasant run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 6
OWN 10
+12
52.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Bud Tolbert for 12 yds to the MTnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
51.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 9 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 1
OWN 31
-5
51.1%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (Sterling Porcher) to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+5
51.2%
Chase Cunningham run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+16
51.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 16 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
50.1%
A'Varius Sparrow run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+3
50.3%
Chase Cunningham run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+10
50.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to A'Varius Sparrow for 10 yds to the ColSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
50.0%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 5 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 5
OPP 37
0
49.9%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+1
50.3%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 1 yd to the ColSt 36Similar
Q2 9:01
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+11
51.2%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 11 yds to the ColSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
49.8%
Chase Cunningham run for 1 yd to the ColSt 24Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+3
49.8%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 3 yds to the ColSt 21Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+3
50.0%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 3 yds to the ColSt 18Similar
Q2 2:26
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
32.9%
Zeke Rankin 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12FUMBLE
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:1438% → 37%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
38.0%
Clay Millen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-2
37.4%
Clay Millen sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13TD
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:4070% → 84%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
29.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 7 yds to the ColSt 11Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+10
29.6%
Frank Peasant run for 10 yds to the ColSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.1%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:3019% → 14%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
18.9%
Clay Millen pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
12.2%
Clay Millen pass complete to Ty McCullouch for no gain to the ColSt 24Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 10
OWN 24
-7
14.1%
Clay Millen sacked by Quindarius Dunnigan and Jalen Davis for a loss of 7 yards to the ColSt 17Similar
Q2 0:52
4TH & 17
OWN 17
0
13.7%
Paddy Turner punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the MTnSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15END OF HALF
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:5284% → 86%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
16.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to A'Varius Sparrow for 8 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 2
OPP 47
-5
15.2%
Chase Cunningham sacked by Cam Bariteau and James Mitchell for a loss of 5 yards to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 7
OWN 48
-2
13.3%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to A'Varius Sparrow for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 9
OWN 46
+25
14.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to A'Varius Sparrow for 25 yds to the ColSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1984% → 92%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for no gain to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
15.6%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
15.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to AJ Toney for 4 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-1
15.0%
Frank Peasant run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+15
15.7%
CUNNINGHAM, Chase pass to the left incomplete intended for ALI, Yusuf broken up by LADAY, Greg at the CSU35. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on LADAY, Greg enforced 15 yards to the CSU42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
8.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for 42 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:5310% → 7%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
10.3%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
10.0%
Clay Millen run for no gain to the ColSt 27Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-7
9.9%
Clay Millen sacked by Drew Francis for a loss of 7 yards to the ColSt 20Similar
Q3 11:48
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
7.1%
Paddy Turner punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the MTnSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18DOWNS
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:5493% → 94%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
6.7%
Frank Peasant run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+7
6.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to AJ Toney for 7 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
6.4%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+2
6.4%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+4
6.5%
Darius Bracy run for 4 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q3 9:54
4TH & 1
OPP 39
0
5.9%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 61 yds · 1:136% → 8%
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
5.9%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the ColSt 40Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+15
5.8%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tra Fluellen) to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
7.5%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 48 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:5694% → 95%
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
6.3%
Chase Cunningham run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
6.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Frank Peasant for 2 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q3 8:41
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
6.6%
CUNNINGHAM, Chase pass to the right incomplete intended for ALI, Yusuf broken up by FRANCIS, Tywan at the MTN43. PENALTY CSU Holding on FRANCIS, Tywan declined CSU Holding on FRANCIS, Tywan enforced 15 yards from the MTN30 to the MTN45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
6.1%
Frank Peasant run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+8
6.2%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 8 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q3 8:41
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
5.6%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:45
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
5.1%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 23 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21TD
2 plays · 70 yds · 0:436% → 13%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
5.6%
A'Jon Vivens run for 1 yd to the ColSt 31Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+69
13.0%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 69 yds for a TD, (Cayden Camper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22FUMBLE
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:2291% → 92%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
9.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
9.2%
Frank Peasant run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
9.4%
Frank Peasant run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
7.9%
Frank Peasant run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 36 Frank Peasant fumbled, recovered by ColSt Mohamed KamaraSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23TD
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:4313% → 25%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
12.6%
Clay Millen pass complete to A'Jon Vivens for 6 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+6
13.4%
A'Jon Vivens run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
13.4%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 3 yds to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+9
13.4%
A'Jon Vivens run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
13.6%
COLORADO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 15
OPP 17
0
13.1%
Clay Millen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 15
OPP 17
0
13.1%
Clay Millen pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:57
3RD & 15
OPP 17
+17
25.1%
Tory Horton 17 Yd pass from Clay Millen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 24INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:4381% → 81%
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.4%
Chase Cunningham run for no gain to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
18.7%
Chase Cunningham pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 25MISSED FG
13 plays · 25 yds · 6:4025% → 11%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
24.9%
David Bailey run for no gain to the ColSt 49Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
23.3%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 4 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+10
23.5%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 10 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
24.2%
COLORADO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+11
23.3%
Clay Millen pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 11 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 31
-8
25.4%
Clay Millen sacked by Marley Cook for a loss of 8 yards to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 39
+5
22.7%
Clay Millen run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 34
+13
23.2%
Clay Millen pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 13 yds to the MTnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
25.4%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 20
-10
25.4%
MILLEN, Clay pass to the left complete for 0 yards to VIVENS, A'Jon caught at the MTN25 and advanced to the MTN20 (FLUELLEN, Tra). PENALTY CSU Illegal Block in the Back on MCCULLOUCH, Ty enforced 10 yards from the MTN20 to the MTN30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 19
OPP 30
-6
24.1%
Clay Millen sacked by Christian Dixon for a loss of 6 yards to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 25
OPP 36
+10
22.3%
Clay Millen pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 10 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q4 9:34
4TH & 15
OPP 26
+43
10.6%
Cayden Camper 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4892% → 92%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
8.5%
Chase Cunningham run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
8.5%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
8.9%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:46
4TH & 7
OWN 29
+5
8.1%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 45 yds , Melquan Stovall returns for 5 yds to the ColSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 27DOWNS
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:0110% → 8%
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
9.9%
Clay Millen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+2
9.8%
Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
9.7%
Clay Millen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:45
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
8.2%
Clay Millen pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 28PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 5:0894% → 98%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
5.8%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+1
5.8%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+11
5.9%
Chase Cunningham run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
5.7%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+14
5.7%
Frank Peasant run for 14 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
5.3%
Darius Bracy run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+4
5.5%
Darius Bracy run for 4 yds to the ColSt 47Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+6
2.3%
Chase Cunningham run for 6 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
Q4 2:37
4TH & 2
OPP 41
0
2.4%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 29END OF GAME
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:373% → 2%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
3.1%
Avery Morrow run for 3 yds to the ColSt 5Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+6
3.0%
Clay Millen pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 6 yds to the ColSt 11Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 1
OWN 11
+4
3.1%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 4 yds to the ColSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+10
3.2%
Clay Millen pass complete to Melquan Stovall for 10 yds to the ColSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.2%
Clay Millen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-6
3.2%
Clay Millen sacked by Quindarius Dunnigan for a loss of 6 yards to the ColSt 19Similar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+11
3.1%
Clay Millen pass complete to Tory Horton for 11 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q4 2:37
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+9
3.2%
Clay Millen pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 9 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-20
2.4%
Clay Millen sacked for a loss of 20 yards to the ColSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 2:26
Zeke Rankin 35 yd FG GOOD
-17.1
TD · Q2 11:37
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)
-14.2
TD · Q2 1:28
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)
-13.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com