Try the model
SFA

Stephen F. Austin 17 at Louisiana Tech 52

LT
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Joe Aillet Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadSFA aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreSFA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:09 · Austin McCready punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Xavier Gipson at the SFAus 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 30Home team on offense+4.9Score differential+2.6Pregame prior+16.4Blowout margin−0.2Garbage-time factor+1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:08: Trae Self 1 Yd Run (Chris Campos Kick) — SFA win probability +3.0 pts (now 32%) (top driver: SFA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 5:24: Tre Harris 40 Yd pass from Parker McNeil (Jacob Barnes Kick) — LT win probability +3.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 0:00: Marquis Crosby run for 68 yds to the SFAus 11 for a 1ST down — LT win probability +3.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:39: Marquis Crosby 3 Yd Run (Jacob Barnes Kick) — LT win probability +8.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 4:37: Marquis Crosby 42 Yd Run (Jacob Barnes Kick) — LT win probability +3.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 4 of 6SFA made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 8:23SFA 4th & 6 at SFA 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:09LT 4th & 12 at LT 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:33SFA 4th & 10 at SFA 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:34LT 4th & 15 at SFA 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:17SFA 4th & 2 at SFA 32, down 14
    Close callPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 6:01SFA 4th & 5 at SFA 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:12SFA 4th & 10 at SFA 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:12SFA 4th & 10 at SFA 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:29SFA 4th & 8 at LT 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    11.1%−<0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:30SFA 4th & 6 at SFA 30, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:05LT 4th & 5 at LT 48, up 28
    Close callPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00SFA 4th & 1 at SFA 34, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:14SFA 4th & 10 at LT 15, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:13LT 4th & 5 at LT 39, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:14LT 4th & 3 at SFA 40, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:02LT 4th & 1 at LT 39, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:30SFA 4th & 10 at SFA 30, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6SFA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:00LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:08SFA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:24LT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:39LT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:37LT Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:00LT Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:46LT Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LTDrive 1TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 3:5070% → 72%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
70.4%
Marquis Crosby run for 9 yds to the LaTch 42Similar
Q1 14:50
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
70.4%
Marquis Crosby run for 2 yds to the LaTch 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
70.4%
Marquis Crosby run for no gain to the LaTch 44Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
70.4%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:50
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+19
70.3%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Tre Harris for 19 yds to the SFAus 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
70.4%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+19
70.4%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Tre Harris for 19 yds to the SFAus 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
70.4%
Marquis Crosby run for 9 yds to the SFAus 9Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+2
70.4%
Marquis Crosby run for 2 yds to the SFAus 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 1
OWN 42
0
70.4%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
71.5%
Smoke Harris 7 Yd pass from Parker McNeil (Jacob Barnes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:3729% → 28%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
70.9%
Trae Self sacked by Kershawn Fisher for a loss of 2 yards to the SFAus 23Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+11
71.0%
Trae Self pass complete to Xavier Gipson for 11 yds to the SFAus 34Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
70.9%
Miles Reed run for 2 yds to the SFAus 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
70.8%
Xavier Gipson run for 8 yds to the SFAus 44Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 2
OWN 44
-4
70.6%
Miles Reed run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFAus 40Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 2
OWN 44
-4
70.6%
Miles Reed run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFAus 40Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
70.8%
Trae Self pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:23
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
71.6%
Max Quick punt for 57 yds, downed at the LaTch 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 3INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
71.4%
Parker McNeil pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 4TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.4%
Trae Self 1 Yd Run (Chris Campos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 5TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 0:3772% → 77%
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
72.0%
Charvis Thornton run for 16 yds to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
72.8%
Charvis Thornton run for 13 yds to the SFAus 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
76.7%
Tre Harris 40 Yd pass from Parker McNeil (Jacob Barnes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:0877% → 77%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+16
76.6%
Marquis Crosby run for 16 yds to the LaTch 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
76.7%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-2
76.7%
Marquis Crosby run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 24Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 12
OWN 24
0
76.4%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:09
4TH & 12
OWN 24
0
76.6%
Austin McCready punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Xavier Gipson at the SFAus 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3624% → 23%
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
76.4%
Trae Self pass complete to Miles Reed for 6 yds to the SFAus 36Similar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
76.1%
Trae Self pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:09
3RD & 4
OWN 36
-6
76.3%
Trae Self run for a loss of 6 yards to the SFAus 30 Trae Self fumbled, recovered by SFAusSimilar
Q1 1:33
4TH & 10
OWN 30
+15
77.0%
Max Quick punt for 40 yds , Smoke Harris returns for 15 yds to the LaTch 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 3:5979% → 80%
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
78.6%
Harlan Dixon run for 4 yds to the LaTch 49Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+7
78.5%
Marquis Crosby run for 7 yds to the SFAus 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-6
79.5%
Marquis Crosby run for 4 yds to the LaTch 40 LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Joshua Mote) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+1
79.3%
Cyrus Allen run for 1 yd to the SFAus 45Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 16
50
+4
79.2%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Smoke Harris for 4 yds to the SFAus 46Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 11
OPP 45
-4
80.0%
Parker McNeil run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFAus 49Similar
Q2 12:34
4TH & 15
OPP 49
0
79.6%
Austin McCready punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 3:5824% → 23%
Q1 4:17
4TH & 2
OWN 32
+57
75.8%
Max Quick punt for 57 yds , Smoke Harris returns for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 10Similar
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
77.3%
Brian Mauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:19
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+2
77.4%
Brian Mauer run for 2 yds to the SFAus 26Similar
Q1 0:19
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+6
77.5%
Trae Self pass complete to Xavier Gipson for 6 yds to the SFAus 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 5:4425% → 23%
Q1 6:01
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
75.2%
Max Quick punt for 39 yds , Smoke Harris returns for no gain to the LaTch 31Similar
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
77.3%
Miles Reed run for 3 yds to the SFAus 28Similar
Q1 0:17
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
77.3%
Jerrell Wimbley run for 2 yds to the SFAus 30Similar
Q1 0:17
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
77.3%
Trae Self pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 11TD
2 plays · 79 yds · 7:2076% → 79%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
75.5%
Charvis Thornton 11 Yd Run (Jacob Barnes Kick)Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+68
78.8%
Marquis Crosby run for 68 yds to the SFAus 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2221% → 21%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
78.6%
Trae Self pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
78.7%
Trae Self pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
78.9%
SFA Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 12:12
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+1
79.1%
Max Quick punt for 49 yds , Smoke Harris returns for 1 yd to the LaTch 32Similar
Q2 12:12
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+1
79.1%
Max Quick punt for 49 yds , Smoke Harris returns for 1 yd to the LaTch 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13TD
11 plays · 68 yds · 4:3380% → 91%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
80.1%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Tre Harris for 6 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+2
80.7%
Charvis Thornton run for 2 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+15
80.4%
MCNEIL, Parker pass to the right incomplete intended for LEWIS, Julien thrown to the SFA32. PENALTY SFA Pass Interference on WALKER, Jeremiah enforced 15 yards to the SFA45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
80.9%
MCNEIL, Parker pass to the right complete for -10 yards to HARRIS, Smoke caught at the SFA45 and advanced to the LAT45 (WALKER, Jeremiah;MURRAY, Amad). PENALTY SFA Personal Foul on WALKER, Jeremiah enforced 15 yards from the SFA45 to the SFA30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
81.0%
Marquis Crosby run for 9 yds to the SFAus 21Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+2
81.0%
Marquis Crosby run for 2 yds to the SFAus 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
81.0%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Smoke Harris for 8 yds to the SFAus 11Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+2
81.0%
Charvis Thornton run for 2 yds to the SFAus 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
82.6%
Harlan Dixon run for 6 yds to the SFAus 3Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
90.6%
Marquis Crosby 3 Yd Run (Jacob Barnes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:0511% → 11%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
88.6%
Brian Mauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+35
89.0%
Brian Mauer pass complete to Darryle Simmons for 35 yds to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+35
89.0%
Brian Mauer pass complete to Darryle Simmons for 35 yds to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
87.6%
Brian Mauer run for 6 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 4
OPP 29
-10
87.0%
(06:50) QB Keeper MAUER, Brian rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the LAT25 (DAVIS, Hugh;COLE, Jaiden). PENALTY SFA Holding on REED, Miles enforced 10 yards from the LAT29 to the LAT39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 14
OPP 39
+6
88.2%
Brian Mauer run for 6 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
87.8%
Brian Mauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 8
OPP 33
-5
89.4%
Brian Mauer sacked by Jaiden Cole and Hugh Davis for a loss of 5 yards to the LaTch 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 0:5293% → 96%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
92.6%
MCNEIL, Parker pass up the middle incomplete intended for ALLEN, Cyrus thrown to the SFA30. PENALTY SFA Pass Interference on DEMMINGS, Charles enforced 15 yards to the SFA47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
92.6%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
92.6%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:46
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+5
92.4%
MCNEIL, Parker sacked for a loss of 5 yards at the LAT48 (THOMPSON, BJ;MURRAY, Amad). PENALTY SFA Offsides on MURRAY, Amad enforced 5 yards from the SFA47 to the SFA42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+42
96.0%
Marquis Crosby 42 Yd Run (Jacob Barnes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:013% → 2%
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
97.2%
Trae Self pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
97.3%
Jerrell Wimbley run for 4 yds to the SFAus 30Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
97.1%
Trae Self pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
97.1%
Trae Self pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:30
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
98.2%
Max Quick punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:2597% → 97%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
96.7%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
96.6%
SFA Penalty, Offsides (DaRyan Williams) to the LaTch 48Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
96.6%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
96.6%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:05
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
96.5%
Austin McCready punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Xavier Gipson at the SFAus 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 18PUNT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:003% → 2%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
97.5%
Miles Reed run for 6 yds to the SFAus 21Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 4
OWN 21
0
97.5%
Trae Self pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 4
OWN 21
0
97.6%
Trae Self pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19FG
13 plays · 53 yds · 2:1897% → 98%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
96.9%
Marquis Crosby run for 2 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+7
96.9%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Tre Harris for 7 yds to the SFAus 45Similar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
97.0%
Charvis Thornton run for 6 yds to the SFAus 16Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+23
96.8%
Marquis Crosby run for 23 yds to the SFAus 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+23
96.8%
Marquis Crosby run for 23 yds to the SFAus 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+13
97.0%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Julien Lewis for 13 yds to the SFAus 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+13
97.0%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Julien Lewis for 13 yds to the SFAus 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
97.2%
Charvis Thornton run for 1 yd to the SFAus 2Similar
Q2 2:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
97.2%
Charvis Thornton run for 1 yd to the SFAus 2Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
97.2%
MCNEIL, Parker pass to the left incomplete intended for HARRIS, Tre thrown to the SFA2. PENALTY SFA Pass Interference on HARMON, Bruce enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards to the SFA1 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.2%
Parker McNeil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+18
97.9%
Jacob Barnes 18 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 20FUMBLE
12 plays · 49 yds · 5:242% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.0%
Miles Reed run for 3 yds to the SFAus 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
98.0%
Miles Reed run for 5 yds to the SFAus 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
97.9%
Miles Reed run for 1 yd to the SFAus 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
97.9%
Trae Self run for 2 yds to the SFAus 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
98.0%
Trae Self pass complete to Jerrell Wimbley for 9 yds to the SFAus 45Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
97.9%
Jerrell Wimbley run for 12 yds to the LaTch 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+7
97.8%
Trae Self run for 7 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
97.9%
Trae Self pass complete to Darryle Simmons for 11 yds to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
97.6%
Trae Self pass complete to Jerrell Wimbley for 8 yds to the LaTch 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 17
0
97.5%
Trae Self pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+3
97.6%
Miles Reed run for 3 yds to the LaTch 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-12
98.9%
Miles Reed run for a loss of 12 yards to the LaTch 26 Miles Reed fumbled, recovered by LaTch J'Dan BurnettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21TD
2 plays · 74 yds · 0:3699% → 99%
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
99.2%
Parker McNeil pass complete to Julien Lewis for 11 yds to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
99.3%
Griffin Hebert 63 Yd pass from Parker McNeil (Jacob Barnes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 22FUMBLE RETURN TD
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:071% → 0%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
99.3%
Trae Self pass complete to Lawton Rikel for 4 yds to the SFAus 30Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+2
99.3%
Miles Reed run for 2 yds to the SFAus 32Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+6
99.3%
Trae Self run for 6 yds to the SFAus 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+30
99.6%
J'Dan Burnett 30 Yd Fumble Return (Jacob Barnes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 23FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 3:320% → 0%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.6%
Jerrell Wimbley run for 5 yds to the SFAus 30Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
99.6%
Jerrell Wimbley run for 4 yds to the SFAus 34Similar
Q3 6:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
99.5%
Trae Self run for 2 yds to the SFAus 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+29
99.6%
Trae Self run for 29 yds to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+20
99.8%
Trae Self pass complete to Lawton Rikel for 20 yds to the LaTch 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.7%
Jerrell Wimbley run for no gain to the LaTch 15Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
99.8%
Trae Self pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:07
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
99.8%
Trae Self pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:14
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
99.7%
Chris Campos 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:53100% → 100%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.7%
Matthew Downing pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+5
99.7%
Charvis Thornton run for 5 yds to the LaTch 39Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
99.7%
Matthew Downing pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:13
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
99.7%
Austin McCready punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Xavier Gipson at the SFAus 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 25INT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:340% → 0%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
99.8%
Trae Self pass complete to Lawton Rikel for 7 yds to the SFAus 31Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+6
99.8%
Brian Mauer run for 6 yds to the SFAus 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.8%
Brian Mauer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+12
99.8%
Brian Mauer run for 12 yds to the SFAus 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.8%
Brian Mauer pass interceptedSimilar
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.8%
Brian Mauer pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 26DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:46100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
99.8%
Harlan Dixon run for 1 yd to the SFAus 46Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.8%
Charvis Thornton run for no gain to the SFAus 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+6
99.8%
Charvis Thornton run for 6 yds to the SFAus 40Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
99.8%
Matthew Downing run for no gain to the SFAus 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 27TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 1:390% → 0%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
99.9%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Reginald Johnson Jr.) to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-15
99.9%
REED, Miles rush up the middle for no gain to the LAT42 (WALKER, Allen;JOHNSON, DJ). PENALTY SFA Personal Foul on WHITE, Keeymon enforced 15 yards from the LAT42 to the SFA43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 25
OWN 43
+13
99.9%
Preston Weeks run for 13 yds to the LaTch 44Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+44
99.9%
Lawton Rikel 44 Yd pass from Preston Weeks (Chris Campos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:21100% → 100%
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.8%
Harlan Dixon run for 4 yds to the LaTch 34Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+3
99.8%
Matthew Downing pass complete to Praise Okorie for 3 yds to the LaTch 37Similar
Q4 12:23
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+2
99.8%
Solomon Lewis run for 2 yds to the LaTch 39Similar
Q4 10:02
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Austin McCready punt for 50 yds , returns for no gain to the SFAus 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SFADrive 29PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:320% → 0%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+10
99.9%
Jaquarion Turner run for 10 yds to the SFAus 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
99.9%
SFA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SFAus 14Similar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+16
99.9%
Jaquarion Turner run for 16 yds to the SFAus 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Jaquarion Turner run for no gain to the SFAus 30Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Preston Weeks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Preston Weeks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Preston Weeks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:30
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Max Quick punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Solomon Lewis at the LaTch 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 30END OF GAME
10 plays · 33 yds · 5:44100% → 100%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
99.9%
Harlan Dixon run for 8 yds to the LaTch 36Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+5
99.9%
Harlan Dixon run for 5 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Praise Okorie for no gain to the LaTch 41Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
99.9%
Harlan Dixon run for 6 yds to the LaTch 47Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 4
OWN 47
-10
99.9%
LYDDY, Landry pass up the middle complete for 13 yards to MCCALLISTER, Matthew caught at the SFA42 and advanced to the SFA40 (OLATUNJI, Triumphant). PENALTY LAT Holding on ROSSELL, Biron enforced 10 yards from the LAT47 to the LAT37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 14
OWN 37
+16
99.9%
Landry Lyddy pass complete to Harlan Dixon for 16 yds to the SFAus 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
99.9%
Harlan Dixon run for 2 yds to the SFAus 45Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+6
100.0%
Landry Lyddy run for 6 yds to the SFAus 39Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+2
100.0%
Keldric Moody run for 2 yds to the SFAus 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:39
Marquis Crosby 3 Yd Run (Jacob Barnes Kick)
+8
TD · Q1 5:24
Tre Harris 40 Yd pass from Parker McNeil (Jacob Barnes Kick)
+3.9
TD · Q2 4:37
Marquis Crosby 42 Yd Run (Jacob Barnes Kick)
+3.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com