2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · FAU Stadium
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Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadSELA aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreSELA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Eli Sawyer pass complete to Darius Lewis for 7 yds to the SELa 30 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 7:53: Zuberi Mobley 14 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Morgan Suarez Kick) — FAU win probability +4.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:52: LaJohntay Wester 36 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Morgan Suarez Kick) — FAU win probability +0.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 8:41: Dom Serapiglia III 19 Yd Field Goal — SELA win probability +1.5 pts (now 16%) (top driver: SELA has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Cephus Johnson III pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 2 yds to the FlAtl 2 — FAU win probability +0.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: SELA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:23: N'Kosi Perry 2 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick) — SELA win probability +0.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4SELA made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
- Q1 9:28SELA 4th & 3 at SELA 42, down 1Close callPunted · 23.5% before the snapGo for it23.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 5:16SELA 4th & 15 at SELA 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snapGo for it21.6%−0.316% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.9%average punt
- Q1 2:37FAU 4th & 6 at SELA 35, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call77.9%40% to convertField goal77.7%−0.245% to makePunt77.5%−0.4average punt
- Q1 1:27SELA 4th & 18 at SELA 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snapGo for it21.3%−0.912% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.2%average punt
- Q2 8:41SELA 4th & 2 at FAU 2, down 15Close callKicked a field goal · 17.6% before the snapGo for it17.8%48% to convertField goalTheir call16.9%−0.894% to makePunt13.6%−4.2average punt
- Q2 2:25SELA 4th & 11 at SELA 47, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snapGo for it9.3%−0.226% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.5%average punt
- Q3 13:13SELA 4th & 3 at SELA 23, down 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.5%−<0.151% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q3 12:22FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 47, up 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snapGo for it97.9%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.0%average punt
- Q3 10:34SELA 4th & 8 at SELA 27, down 26Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.533% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q3 5:35SELA 4th & 18 at SELA 35, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q4 7:48FAU 4th & 2 at SELA 18, up 33Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%56% to convertField goal99.8%−0.179% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 1:23FAU 4th & 5 at SELA 8, up 33Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.134% to convertField goal99.9%90% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 0:00SELA 4th & 1 at FAU 45, down 33Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.170% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.125% to makePunt0.0%average punt
- Q4 0:00SELA 4th & 4 at SELA 23, down 33Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 7:53FAU Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call77.9%97% to makeGo for two77.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:57FAU Touchdown, up 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFAUDrive 1INT17 plays · 40 yds · 11:0479% → 77%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
76.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Javion Posey for 7 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 2PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 9:2821% → 24%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+8
76.6%
Cephus Johnson III pass complete to Carlos Washington Jr. for 8 yds to the SELa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3TD5 plays · 80 yds · 7:5380% → 81%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 4PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 5:1620% → 20%
FAUDrive 5DOWNS8 plays · 36 yds · 2:3780% → 80%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
80.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Austin Evans for 19 yds to the SELa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 6PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 1:2720% → 20%
Q1 1:27
4TH & 18
OWN 27
+7
80.2%
Austin Dunlap punt for 52 yds , LaJohntay Wester returns for 7 yds to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
79.2%
SE LOUISIANA Penalty, false start (Brennan Lanclos) to the SELa 30Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 18
OWN 27
0
79.6%
Cephus Johnson III pass incomplete to Gage Larvadain, broken up by Romain MunginSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7TD7 plays · 72 yds · 2:0880% → 85%
SELADrive 8FG9 plays · 73 yds · 8:4116% → 5%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+17
87.6%
Jessie Britt run for 2 yds to the SELa 27 FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, personal foul (Keem Green) to the FlAtl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+35
95.7%
Cephus Johnson III pass complete to CJ Turner for 35 yds to the FlAtl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+17
95.3%
Jessie Britt run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 36 for a 1ST down FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, personal foul (Keem Green) to the FlAtl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
95.2%
Cephus Johnson III pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 2 yds to the FlAtl 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 9TD8 plays · 70 yds · 6:0294% → 97%
Q2 6:02
3RD & 12
OPP 27
+19
94.0%
Larry McCammon run for 10 yds to the SELa 17 for a 1ST down SE LOUISIANA Penalty, personal foul (Donniel Ward-Magee) to the SELa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+15
96.8%
Larry McCammon run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST down SE LOUISIANA Penalty, Defensive holding (Kaleb Proctor) to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+26
96.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Javion Posey for 26 yds to the SELa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 10PUNT6 plays · 33 yds · 2:3710% → 3%
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+34
97.9%
Cephus Johnson III pass complete to Gage Larvadain for 34 yds to the SELa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 11TD11 plays · 80 yds · 0:1197% → 97%
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
97.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 6 yds to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+5
97.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to LaJohntay Wester for a 1ST down SE LOUISIANA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jack Henderson) to the FlAtl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+29
97.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Tony Johnson for 29 yds to the SELa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 18
0
97.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to BJ Alexander, broken up by Brandon BarbeeSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+8
97.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Tony Johnson for 8 yds to the SELa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
97.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Austin Evans for 6 yds to the SELa 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 12PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 13:132% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 12:2298% → 100%
SELADrive 14PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 10:342% → 0%
FAUDrive 15TD8 plays · 65 yds · 7:5799% → 100%
SELADrive 16PUNT9 plays · 10 yds · 5:351% → 0%
Q3 5:35
4TH & 18
OWN 35
0
98.8%
Austin Dunlap punt for 46 yds , LaJohntay Wester returns for no gain to the FlAtl 15Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.8%
SE LOUISIANA Penalty, false start (Brennan Lanclos) to the SELa 20Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+8
99.8%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Maurice Massey for 8 yds to the SELa 28Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+15
99.8%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Maurice Massey for 15 yds to the SELa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 17FUMBLE14 plays · 81 yds · 0:18100% → 100%
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+7
99.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 7 yds to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+6
99.7%
Zuberi Mobley run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 30 Zuberi Mobley fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Zuberi Mobley for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 4 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+9
99.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Javion Posey for 9 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 25
-5
99.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the SELa 30Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+6
99.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jayshon Platt for 6 yds to the SELa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass intercepted Garrett Crawford fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Austin EvansSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18DOWNS15 plays · 65 yds · 6:25100% → 100%
FAUDrive 19TD2 plays · 37 yds · 13:45100% → 100%
SELADrive 20TD17 plays · 75 yds · 7:560% → 0%
Q4 7:56
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+13
99.9%
Ivan Drobocky 13 Yd pass from Eli Sawyer (Mateo Rengifo PAT failed)Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
100.0%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to CJ Turner for 10 yds to the SELa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
100.0%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Antoine Robinson for 6 yds to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
100.0%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Antoine Robinson for 11 yds to the FlAtl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
100.0%
SE LOUISIANA Penalty, false start (Ivan Drobocky) to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+15
100.0%
pass incomplete to Gage Larvadain for a 1ST down FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, personal foul (Amari Wansley) to the FlAtl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
99.9%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Antoine Robinson for 7 yds to the FlAtl 15Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 15
-15
99.9%
SE LOUISIANA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Antoine Robinson) to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 18
OPP 30
+16
100.0%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Maurice Massey for 2 yds to the FlAtl 28 for a 1ST down FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, personal foul (Jaylen Wester) to the FlAtl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SELADrive 21Uncategorized7 plays · 25 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+12
100.0%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Bauer Sharp for 12 yds to the SELa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+6
100.0%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Darius Lewis for 6 yds to the SELa 23Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 4
OWN 23
+7
100.0%
Eli Sawyer pass complete to Darius Lewis for 7 yds to the SELa 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 7:53
Zuberi Mobley 14 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Morgan Suarez Kick)
+4.7
FG · Q2 8:41
Dom Serapiglia III 19 Yd Field Goal
-1.5
TD · Q2 4:23
N'Kosi Perry 2 Yd Run (Morgan Suarez Kick)
-0.9