Try the model
FIU

Florida International 12 at Texas State 41

TXST
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadFIU aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreFIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.8TXST 81.8%Seth Keller 31 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 5:57
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:57 · Seth Keller 31 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 26Pregame prior+29.5Home team on offense+0.8Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.2Blowout margin−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:00: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 67 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +2.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:33: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 52 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +4.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 3:55: Mason Shipley 54 yd FG GOOD — TXST win probability +3.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:03: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 7 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +3.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:29: EJ Wilson Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — FIU win probability +5.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 7FIU made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
  1. Q1 11:20TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:30FIU 4th & 16 at FIU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:57TXST 4th & 4 at FIU 14, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.4%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    78.4%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:44FIU 4th & 10 at FIU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:00FIU 4th & 2 at TXST 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    18.9%−0.3
    60% to make
    Punt
    17.8%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:00FIU 4th & 6 at TXST 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−2.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:44TXST 4th & 8 at FIU 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    80.4%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:19FIU 4th & 13 at FIU 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:54FIU 4th & 3 at FIU 48, down 14
    Close callPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:34TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:55TXST 4th & 19 at FIU 37, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−0.9
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.9%
    40% to make
    Punt
    85.6%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:16FIU 4th & 8 at FIU 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:06FIU 4th & 2 at TXST 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−0.8
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    10.8%−1.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:52FIU 4th & 7 at FIU 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:51TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:48FIU 4th & 17 at FIU 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−1.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  17. Q3 6:47FIU 4th & 6 at TXST 9, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.9%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    11.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−5.5
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:52TXST 4th & 17 at TXST 13, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−2.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:54FIU 4th & 25 at TXST 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−2.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:19FIU 4th & 6 at TXST 15, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5FIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 4:00TXST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:33TXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:03TXST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:29FIU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    4.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.5%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:03TXST Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:54TXST Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 3:4084% → 83%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
83.8%
Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
83.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Charles BrownSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
83.8%
Layne Hatcher run for 5 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q1 13:24
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
83.4%
O'Kelly,Seamus punt 53 yards to the FIU13 Chambers,Tyrese return 7 yards to the FIU20 (Haynes,Kenny) PENALTY FIU Running Into The Kicker (Owens,Kejon) 5 yards from TXST34 to TXST39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+5
83.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 5 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
83.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Tyler Huff for 2 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+6
83.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 6 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q1 11:20
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+9
82.8%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 42 yds , Tyrese Chambers returns for 9 yds to the FlaIn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:5017% → 18%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
82.8%
PENALTY FIU Delay Of Game (James,Grayson) 5 yards from FIU24 to FIU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 15
OWN 19
-7
82.8%
Grayson James sacked by Jordan Revels for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaIn 12Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 22
OWN 12
+8
82.8%
Grayson James pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 8 yds to the FlaIn 20Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 14
OWN 20
+2
82.9%
Grayson James pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 2 yds to the FlaIn 18Similar
Q1 9:30
4TH & 16
OWN 18
0
82.5%
Daton Montiel punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Rontavius Groves at the TexSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 3:3383% → 82%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
82.5%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the TexSt 42Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
82.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+10
82.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 10 yds to the FlaIn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
82.6%
Calvin Hill run for 9 yds to the FlaIn 39Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+6
82.7%
Calvin Hill run for 6 yds to the FlaIn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
82.7%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+13
82.7%
Calvin Hill run for 13 yds to the FlaIn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
82.7%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Demarcus GregorySimilar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+6
82.7%
Calvin Hill run for 6 yds to the FlaIn 14Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
82.6%
Jahmyl Jeter run for no gain to the FlaIn 14Similar
Q1 5:57
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+31
81.8%
Seth Keller 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:1318% → 18%
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
81.8%
PENALTY FIU False Start (Miamen,Josiah) 5 yards from FIU25 to FIU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+10
81.8%
Grayson James pass complete to Josiah Miamen for 10 yds to the FlaIn 30Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
81.6%
Jalen Bracey run for 5 yds to the FlaIn 25Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
82.0%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Tyrese ChambersSimilar
Q1 4:44
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+6
82.0%
Daton Montiel punt for 49 yds , Rontavius Groves returns for 6 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5TD
2 plays · 68 yds · 0:4481% → 83%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
81.3%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the TexSt 33Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+67
83.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 67 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 6FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 4:0017% → 18%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
82.7%
Grayson James pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 11 yds to the FlaIn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
82.1%
Grayson James pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 5 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 5
OPP 31
0
81.7%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Dean PattersonSimilar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+3
82.0%
Lexington Joseph run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 4:00
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+3
82.3%
Lexington Joseph run for 3 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
81.7%
Grayson James run for 1 yd to the TexSt 24Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+6
81.7%
Jalen Bracey run for 6 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+3
82.0%
Grayson James pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 3 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+38
81.7%
Chase Gabriel 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:1682% → 82%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
82.4%
Calvin Hill run for 8 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
82.7%
Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
82.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 19 yds to the FlaIn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
83.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Demarcus Gregory for 7 yds to the FlaIn 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+5
83.3%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 5 yds to the FlaIn 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
82.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q2 12:44
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
82.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2518% → 18%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
81.7%
Lexington Joseph run for no gain to the FlaIn 20Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
81.9%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Lexington JosephSimilar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+3
82.3%
Grayson James pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 3 yds to the FlaIn 17Similar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+13
82.4%
Daton Montiel punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 47 , Ashtyn Hawkins returns for 13 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9TD
2 plays · 53 yds · 0:4683% → 87%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
82.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 1 yd to the TexSt 48Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+52
87.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 52 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 3:3215% → 15%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
85.0%
Grayson James pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 4 yds to the FlaIn 30Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+3
84.8%
EJ Wilson Jr. run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 33Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+8
84.9%
Grayson James pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 8 yds to the FlaIn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
84.7%
EJ Wilson Jr. run for 7 yds to the FlaIn 48Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 3
OWN 48
-10
84.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Wilson Jr.,EJ rush left for 1 yard loss to the FIU47 (Bell,Levi; Bell,Ben) PENALTY FIU Holding (Burnett,Reynard) 10 yards from FIU48 to FIU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+11
85.2%
Grayson James run for 11 yds to the FlaIn 49Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+1
84.3%
EJ Wilson Jr. run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 48Similar
Q2 6:54
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
85.4%
Daton Montiel punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 1:2089% → 89%
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
88.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
88.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+13
88.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Calvin Hill for 13 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
89.9%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
89.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
89.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Charles BrownSimilar
Q2 5:34
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
89.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Dean Patterson at the FlaIn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 12INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
86.0%
Grayson James pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13FG
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:3491% → 94%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
90.7%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+1
90.6%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 27Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 9
OPP 27
-10
90.3%
Layne Hatcher sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the FlaIn 37Similar
Q2 3:55
4TH & 19
OPP 37
+54
93.6%
Mason Shipley 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:3110% → 10%
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
89.6%
Kris Mitchell run for 5 yds to the FlaIn 31Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+6
89.1%
Grayson James pass complete to EJ Wilson Jr. for 6 yds to the FlaIn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
89.1%
Grayson James pass incomplete to EJ Wilson Jr.Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
89.2%
Grayson James pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 2 yds to the FlaIn 39Similar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
89.3%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Jalen BraceySimilar
Q2 2:16
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+31
90.3%
Daton Montiel punt for 42 yds , Rontavius Groves returns for 31 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:3194% → 93%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
50
+7
94.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 7 yds to the FlaIn 43Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+1
94.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 42Similar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+3
94.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
93.4%
Layne Hatcher pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 16FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 0:3910% → 13%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
89.8%
Grayson James pass complete to EJ Wilson Jr. for 11 yds to the FlaIn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
89.2%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Josiah MiamenSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+23
89.4%
Grayson James pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 23 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
88.0%
Grayson James run for 8 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 2
OPP 32
0
87.4%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Jalen BraceySimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 2
OPP 32
0
88.0%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Tyrese ChambersSimilar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+49
86.9%
Chase Gabriel 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
91.0%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the TexSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0811% → 11%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
88.6%
EJ Wilson Jr. run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
88.7%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Rivaldo FairweatherSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+4
88.9%
Grayson James run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 28Similar
Q3 13:52
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
89.1%
Daton Montiel punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Rontavius Groves at the TexSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:0190% → 89%
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
89.5%
Calvin Hill run for 6 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+3
89.6%
Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+3
89.4%
Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
89.9%
Calvin Hill run for 8 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
90.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Julian Ortega-JonesSimilar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+1
89.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Calvin Hill for 1 yd to the TexSt 42Similar
Q3 10:51
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
89.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Tyrese Chambers at the FlaIn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 20PUNT
13 plays · 33 yds · 3:0311% → 10%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
89.4%
Grayson James pass complete to Josiah Miamen for 8 yds to the FlaIn 18Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+7
89.1%
Grayson James pass complete to Lexington Joseph for 7 yds to the FlaIn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
89.3%
Grayson James pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 6 yds to the FlaIn 31Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-10
88.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun James,Grayson pass complete deep left to Miamen,Josiah for 24 yards to the TXST45 (Mills,Chris) PENALTY FIU Holding (Hobdy-Lee,Shamar) 10 yards from FIU31 to FIU21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+16
89.1%
Grayson James run for 16 yds to the FlaIn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
87.9%
Grayson James pass complete to Lexington Joseph for 4 yds to the FlaIn 41Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
87.6%
Grayson James pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 4 yds to the FlaIn 45Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+5
87.5%
Grayson James pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
50
-7
86.9%
Grayson James sacked by Davon Sears for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaIn 43Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 17
OWN 43
0
88.9%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Lexington JosephSimilar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 17
OWN 43
0
89.0%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jake Howard) declinedSimilar
Q3 7:48
4TH & 17
OWN 43
0
89.6%
Daton Montiel punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0114% → 12%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
86.0%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Jalen BraceySimilar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
86.0%
Grayson James pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:48
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+4
87.1%
EJ Wilson Jr. run for 4 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q3 6:47
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+1
87.7%
Grayson James pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 1 yd to the TexSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 3:5590% → 90%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
89.7%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+4
90.0%
Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+3
89.6%
Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
90.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
90.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-6
89.7%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Gaethan Bernadel for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 18Similar
Q3 2:52
4TH & 17
OWN 13
0
90.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tyrese Chambers at the FlaIn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 5 yds · 2:5811% → 8%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
89.1%
Jalen Bracey run for 10 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
88.3%
Grayson James pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 4 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+6
87.9%
Grayson James pass complete to Josiah Miamen for 6 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
87.8%
Grayson James pass complete to Lexington Joseph for 4 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 6
OPP 30
-10
87.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun James,Grayson pass complete short right to Miamen,Josiah for 0 yards to the TXST30 (Texas St.), out of bounds PENALTY FIU Holding (Peace,Jacob) 10 yards from TXST30 to TXST40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 16
OPP 40
+1
89.0%
Grayson James pass complete to Lexington Joseph for 1 yd to the TexSt 41Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 17
OPP 41
-8
91.3%
Grayson James sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 49Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 25
OPP 49
0
91.9%
Daton Montiel punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24TD
8 plays · 89 yds · 3:5196% → 99%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+10
96.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 10 yds to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 25
OWN 20
+19
95.8%
Calvin Hill run for 19 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
96.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+28
96.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 28 yds to the FlaIn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+27
96.2%
Calvin Hill run for 27 yds to the FlaIn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
96.1%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 7Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
96.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Demarcus GregorySimilar
Q4 11:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 7 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 25TD
8 plays · 46 yds · 1:251% → 6%
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
98.7%
Grayson James pass complete to Jalen Bracey for 12 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
98.6%
Grayson James pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 2 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+26
98.6%
Grayson James pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 26 yds to the TexSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
98.5%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Rivaldo FairweatherSimilar
Q4 9:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
92.6%
EJ Wilson Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
94.0%
PENALTY FIU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Pierce,Julius) 15 yards from FIU35 to FIU20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 26TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 4:1998% → 100%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
98.3%
Calvin Hill run for 7 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+5
98.4%
Layne Hatcher run for 5 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
98.4%
Calvin Hill run for 6 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+1
98.4%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the TexSt 49Similar
Q4 9:22
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+4
98.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 4 yds to the FlaIn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
98.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the FlaIn 41Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+16
98.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 16 yds to the FlaIn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
98.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Julian Ortega-JonesSimilar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
99.7%
Calvin Hill run for 25 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 27INT TD
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:011% → 0%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
99.3%
Grayson James pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 5 yds to the FlaIn 44Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
99.3%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Tyrese ChambersSimilar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+10
99.3%
Grayson James pass complete to Dean Patterson for 10 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-60
99.9%
Kordell Rodgers 60 Yd Interception Return (Seth Keller Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 28DOWNS
11 plays · 59 yds · 2:280% → 0%
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
99.9%
Haden Carlson pass complete to EJ Wilson Jr. for 4 yds to the FlaIn 30Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Haden Carlson pass incomplete to Jackson McDonaldSimilar
Q4 3:47
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+33
99.9%
Haden Carlson pass complete to Jacolby Hewitt for 33 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
99.9%
Haden Carlson pass complete to Kejon Owens for 5 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+4
99.9%
Haden Carlson pass complete to Ross Fournet for 4 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q4 3:47
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+9
99.9%
Haden Carlson pass complete to Kejon Owens for 9 yds to the TexSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
99.9%
Kejon Owens run for 4 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
99.9%
Haden Carlson pass incomplete to Ross FournetSimilar
Q4 3:47
3RD & 6
OPP 15
0
99.9%
Haden Carlson pass incomplete to Ross FournetSimilar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 6
OPP 15
0
99.9%
Haden Carlson pass incomplete to Jackson McDonaldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 29END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · 5 yds · 1:19100% → 100%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
99.9%
Josh Berry run for 7 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 22
-2
100.0%
Layne Hatcher run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:29
EJ Wilson Jr. run for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-5.9
TD · Q2 10:33
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 52 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)
+4.5
TD · Q4 11:03
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 7 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)
+3.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com