Try the model
HOU

Houston 37 at UTSA 35

UTSA
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2022 · Alamodome
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2OTQ3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT 0:00 · Brandon Campbell run for no gain to the TexSA 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2OTQ3Q4OT
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 14:54: Nathaniel Dell 10 Yd pass from Clayton Tune (Bubba Baxa Kick) — HOU win probability +15.0 pts (now 32%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:19: Joseph Manjack IV 20 Yd pass from Clayton Tune (Bubba Baxa Kick) — HOU win probability +42.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 0:23: Bubba Baxa 35 Yd Field Goal — HOU win probability +38.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 0:00: Jared Sackett 37 Yd Field Goal — UTSA win probability +32.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Brandon Campbell run for no gain to the TexSA 1 — HOU win probability +55.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 13:05UTSA 4th & 3 at UTSA 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:17HOU 4th & 14 at HOU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:38HOU 4th & 14 at HOU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:19UTSA 4th & 2 at HOU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    45.2%−0.7
    30% to make
    Punt
    45.4%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:21HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:58HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 31, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%−1.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:58HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 31, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:27UTSA 4th & 9 at HOU 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    60.8%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:35HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−1.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:05UTSA 4th & 1 at HOU 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    65.8%−4.0
    30% to make
    Punt
    66.6%−3.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:24HOU 4th & 20 at HOU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−5.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:53UTSA 4th & 9 at HOU 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    51.6%−1.5
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:23HOU 4th & 7 at UTSA 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−10.6
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−34.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 14:02HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:20UTSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:30UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:12UTSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:54HOU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:19HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2039% → 40%
Q1 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for no gain to the TexSA 25Similar
Q1 14:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
39.4%
Brenden Brady run for 2 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
39.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 5 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q1 13:05
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
39.7%
Lucas Dean punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · -4 yds · 6:2260% → 57%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+5
40.1%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 5 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+8
40.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 8 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-7
40.3%
Clayton Tune sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 31Similar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 14
OWN 31
0
41.0%
Laine Wilkins punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Joshua Cephus at the TexSA 24Similar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+5
42.1%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 5 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+8
42.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 8 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-7
41.8%
Clayton Tune sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 31Similar
Q1 5:38
4TH & 14
OWN 31
0
42.7%
Laine Wilkins punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Joshua Cephus at the TexSA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
40.7%
Trelon Smith run for 6 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 4
OWN 30
-10
40.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Harris,Frank pass complete deep middle to Clark,De'Corian for 13 yards to the UTSA43 (Green,Art), out of bounds PENALTY UTSA Holding (Tatafu,Venly) 10 yards from UTSA30 to UTSA20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 14
OWN 20
-5
40.7%
PENALTY UTSA False Start (Cephus,Joshua) 5 yards from UTSA20 to UTSA15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 19
OWN 15
+4
40.7%
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the TexSA 11Similar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 23
OWN 11
+5
40.4%
Trelon Smith run for 5 yds to the TexSA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4FUMBLE
5 plays · 26 yds · 2:2359% → 59%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
41.3%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 15 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
40.9%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 2 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+3
41.3%
Brandon Campbell run for 3 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+9
41.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 9 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
41.1%
Clayton Tune sacked by Brandon Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line Clayton Tune fumbled, recovered by Houst Dadrian Taylor , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1643% → 43%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
50
+1
43.1%
Brenden Brady run for 1 yd to the Houst 49Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
43.1%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 9
OPP 49
+7
42.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 7 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q1 4:19
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
43.0%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6TD
12 plays · 58 yds · 5:1758% → 64%
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
41.6%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Nathaniel DellSimilar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
41.8%
Brandon Campbell run for 5 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+15
41.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Tune,Clayton pass incomplete short right to Golden,Matthew PENALTY UTSA Pass Interference (Nwachuku,Kelechi) 15 yards from UH47 to UTSA38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
41.3%
Clayton Tune run for 7 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+2
40.9%
Brandon Campbell run for 2 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+1
41.3%
Brandon Campbell run for 1 yd to the TexSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
40.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to KeSean Carter for 3 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+3
40.9%
Stacy Sneed run for 3 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+4
41.7%
Clayton Tune run for 4 yds to the TexSA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
41.1%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Sam BrownSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 23
+12
41.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 12 yds to the TexSA 11Similar
Q2 14:02
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+11
36.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 11 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:4238% → 47%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
38.2%
Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+11
38.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 11 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
39.3%
Trelon Smith run for no gain to the TexSA 49Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+51
46.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 51 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:5956% → 56%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
44.0%
Stacy Sneed run for 4 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
43.6%
Stacy Sneed run for 3 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
44.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 9 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
42.7%
Stacy Sneed run for 1 yd to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+7
43.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 7 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
42.7%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Matthew GoldenSimilar
Q2 9:21
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
44.4%
Laine Wilkins punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 2:5146% → 59%
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
46.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 5 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
46.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Brenden Brady for 4 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q2 9:21
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+1
46.0%
Brenden Brady run for 1 yd to the TexSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
46.6%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+14
46.3%
Frank Harris run for 14 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
48.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 11 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
50.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 14 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
50.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Harris,Frank pass incomplete short middle to Brady,Brenden PENALTY UTSA Holding (Almaraz,Ernesto) 10 yards from UH31 to UH41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 20
OPP 41
+3
49.0%
Brenden Brady run for 3 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 17
OPP 38
+38
58.9%
Frank Harris run for 38 yds for a TD, (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:2643% → 41%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
57.3%
Clayton Tune sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 19Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+1
57.6%
Stacy Sneed run for 1 yd to the Houst 20Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 12
OWN 20
+11
58.4%
Clayton Tune run for 11 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q2 3:58
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+14
59.5%
Laine Wilkins punt for 51 yds , Joshua Cephus returns for 14 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q2 3:58
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+9
59.5%
Laine Wilkins punt for 51 yds , Joshua Cephus returns for 9 yds to the TexSA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 51 yds · 2:3160% → 61%
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+13
59.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 13 yds to the TexSA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
59.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tre'Von Bradley for 9 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+4
61.0%
Trelon Smith run for 4 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+24
60.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 24 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
62.0%
Trelon Smith run for 1 yd to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
61.9%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
62.8%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to De'Corian ClarkSimilar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
61.1%
Brenden Brady punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 20 yds · 46:2736% → 12%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
63.6%
Brandon Campbell run for 4 yds to the Houst 5Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+7
63.7%
Brandon Campbell run for 7 yds to the Houst 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
88.2%
Brandon Campbell run for 9 yds to the Houst 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2540% → 37%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
60.4%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 5 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
59.6%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 1 yd to the Houst 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
60.5%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Matt ByrnesSimilar
Q3 13:35
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+1
62.8%
Laine Wilkins punt for 43 yds , Joshua Cephus returns for 1 yd to the TexSA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 31 yds · 4:3063% → 68%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
62.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 3 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+6
62.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 6 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+2
63.5%
Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
64.1%
Trelon Smith run for 8 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+3
65.1%
Trelon Smith run for 3 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
65.1%
Frank Harris sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 47Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+7
63.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Brenden Brady for 7 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+4
64.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 4 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q3 9:05
4TH & 1
OPP 42
0
68.2%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:4137% → 32%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
62.9%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 4 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 14
OWN 38
-6
64.5%
Clayton Tune sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 32Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 20
OWN 32
0
66.3%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Matthew GoldenSimilar
Q3 7:24
4TH & 20
OWN 32
0
67.9%
Laine Wilkins punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Joshua Cephus at the TexSA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:1271% → 87%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
70.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Brenden Brady for 3 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+8
70.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 8 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
72.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
50
-4
72.9%
Frank Harris sacked by Nelson Ceaser for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 46Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 14
OWN 46
+1
71.3%
Brenden Brady run for 1 yd to the TexSA 47Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 13
OWN 47
+14
70.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 14 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+18
73.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 18 yds to the Houst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
73.5%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+6
73.5%
Trelon Smith run for 6 yds to the Houst 15Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+15
86.8%
De'Corian Clark 15 Yd pass from Frank Harris (Jared Sackett Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1817% → 32%
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
83.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Ta'Zhawn Henry for 4 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
82.4%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 4 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q3 4:12
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
82.3%
Ta'Zhawn Henry run for 1 yd to the Houst 34Similar
Q3 4:12
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
82.8%
Sneed,Stacey rush left for 0 yards to the UH34 (Moore,Trey; French,Martavius) PENALTY UTSA Illegal Substitution 5 yards from UH34 to UH39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
82.4%
Clayton Tune run for 4 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+37
82.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Matthew Golden for 37 yds to the TexSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
79.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 10 yds to the TexSA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
79.7%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Cody JacksonSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
83.1%
Stacy Sneed run for 5 yds to the TexSA 5Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
68.1%
Nathaniel Dell 10 Yd pass from Clayton Tune (Bubba Baxa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18INT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:2879% → 83%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
78.8%
Trelon Smith run for 2 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
78.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 11 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
80.6%
Frank Harris run for 9 yds to the TexSA 47Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+3
81.4%
Trelon Smith run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
50
0
81.6%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 10
50
0
83.3%
Frank Harris pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19TD
1 play · 20 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
40.8%
Joseph Manjack IV 20 Yd pass from Clayton Tune (Bubba Baxa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:2659% → 53%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
50
0
58.6%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Oscar CardenasSimilar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 10
50
+10
57.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 10 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
59.1%
Joshua Cephus run for 4 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q4 11:46
2ND & 14
OPP 44
0
56.3%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to De'Corian ClarkSimilar
Q4 11:46
3RD & 9
OPP 39
0
57.3%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q4 10:53
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
53.3%
Lucas Dean punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Nathaniel Dell at the Houst 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21FG
21 plays · 77 yds · 10:3051% → 94%
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
49.5%
Brandon Campbell run for 5 yds to the Houst 10Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 5
OWN 10
0
49.6%
Clayton Tune run for no gain to the Houst 10Similar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 5
OWN 10
+13
51.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 13 yds to the Houst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+3
48.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 3 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+10
49.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Nathaniel Dell for 10 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+10
47.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 10 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
44.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 4 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+7
44.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Brandon Campbell for 7 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
43.0%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Matthew GoldenSimilar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
43.7%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to KeSean CarterSimilar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+15
45.7%
Clayton Tune run for 15 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
40.8%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Matthew GoldenSimilar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
41.1%
Brandon Campbell run for 5 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+7
39.9%
Clayton Tune run for 7 yds to the TexSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
37.5%
Clayton Tune run for 2 yds to the TexSA 19Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+7
37.5%
Brandon Campbell run for 7 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 15
OPP 26
+8
44.3%
Brandon Campbell run for 8 yds to the TexSA 18Similar
Q4 0:23
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+35
6.2%
Bubba Baxa 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22FG
8 plays · 55 yds · 0:2318% → 68%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.8%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to De'Corian ClarkSimilar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+30
17.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 30 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
24.2%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+25
22.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 25 yds to the Houst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
34.8%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+37
67.5%
Jared Sackett 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23FG
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
12.2%
Brandon Campbell run for no gain to the TexSA 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · OT 0:00
Brandon Campbell run for no gain to the TexSA 1
-55.4
TD · Q4 12:19
Joseph Manjack IV 20 Yd pass from Clayton Tune (Bubba Baxa Kick)
-42.5
FG · Q4 0:23
Bubba Baxa 35 Yd Field Goal
-38.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com