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Win probability · OU
modelOU aheadUTEP aheadconfidence bandkey playOU scoreUTEP score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:17 · Calvin Brownholtz pass complete to Jeremiah Ballard for 10 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:43: Gavin Freeman run for 46 yds for a TD, (Zach Schmit KICK) — OU win probability +0.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 14:12: Gavin Baechle 48 yd FG GOOD — UTEP win probability +0.8 pts (now 3%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:18: Ronald Awatt run for 2 yds for a TD, (Gavin Baechle KICK) — UTEP win probability +2.2 pts (now 6%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:55: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brayden Willis for 28 yds for a TD, (Zach Schmit KICK) — OU win probability +1.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:48: Marcus Major run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zach Schmit KICK) — OU win probability +1.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UTEP made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 11:06UTEP 4th & 14 at UTEP 47, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snapGo for it3.7%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q1 7:13UTEP 4th & 13 at UTEP 29, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snapGo for it3.7%−0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.8%average punt
- Q2 14:12UTEP 4th & 19 at OU 31, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.211% to convertField goalTheir call2.8%54% to makePunt2.6%−0.1average punt
- Q2 13:28OU 4th & 6 at OU 30, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snapGo for it96.3%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.4%average punt
- Q2 7:14OU 4th & 15 at OU 20, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snapGo for it93.4%−0.516% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.9%average punt
- Q2 4:56UTEP 4th & 22 at UTEP 31, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snapGo for it5.2%−0.57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.7%average punt
- Q2 4:56OU 4th & 1 at UTEP 47, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt93.4%−0.5average punt
- Q3 13:28UTEP 4th & 14 at UTEP 39, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snapGo for it3.4%−0.618% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.0%average punt
- Q3 5:07UTEP 4th & 6 at OU 36, down 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.9%40% to convertField goal0.8%−0.142% to makePunt0.7%−0.2average punt
- Q4 14:01UTEP 4th & 10 at OU 37, down 32Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.130% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%40% to makePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 12:15OU 4th & 5 at OU 47, up 29Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 10:45UTEP 4th & 4 at UTEP 13, down 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 5:17OU 4th & 5 at UTEP 5, up 29Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%92% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
- Q4 5:17UTEP 4th & 10 at OU 46, down 32Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.130% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.123% to makePunt0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UTEP made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 13:43OU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.6%97% to makeGo for two96.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:18OU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.4%97% to makeGo for two96.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:43OU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:18UTEP Touchdown, down 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.2%97% to makeGo for two5.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:55OU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.3%97% to makeGo for two96.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:48OU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:16OU Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOUDrive 1TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1797% → 97%
UTEPDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 22 yds · 2:373% → 3%
OUDrive 3TD6 plays · 93 yds · 1:4897% → 97%
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+31
96.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marvin Mims for 31 yds to the UTEP 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+24
96.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Eric Gray for 24 yds to the UTEP 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
96.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brayden Willis for 6 yds for a TD, (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 4PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 1:583% → 3%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
96.6%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Tyrin Smith for 15 yds to the UTEP 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
3RD & 16
OWN 26
+3
96.6%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Reynaldo Flores for 3 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q1 7:13
4TH & 13
OWN 29
0
96.6%
Joshua Sloan punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims at the Okla 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5TD2 plays · 55 yds · 0:3097% → 97%
UTEPDrive 6FG18 plays · 49 yds · 7:313% → 3%
Q1 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
97.1%
PENALTY UTEP False Start (Klein,Elijah) 5 yards from UTEP25 to UTEP20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
97.2%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 5 yds to the UTEP 25Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
97.1%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Tyrin Smith for 10 yds to the UTEP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
97.1%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Reynaldo Flores for 11 yds to the UTEP 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+5
97.1%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Zach Fryar for 5 yds to the Okla 47Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 3
OPP 47
-5
97.2%
PENALTY UTEP False Start (Henry,Zuri) 5 yards from OU47 to UTEP48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+11
97.3%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Tyrin Smith for 11 yds to the Okla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 21
OPP 33
-6
97.4%
Gavin Hardison sacked by Reggie Grimes for a loss of 6 yards to the Okla 39 Gavin Hardison fumbled, recovered by UTEP Gavin Hardison , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3897% → 97%
Q2 13:28
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
96.7%
Michael Turk punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Marcus Bellon at the UTEP 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 8TD10 plays · 85 yds · 5:103% → 6%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
96.7%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Tyrin Smith for 8 yds to the UTEP 23Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+24
96.6%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Reynaldo Flores for 24 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+11
96.4%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Reynaldo Flores for 11 yds to the Okla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
96.4%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Ronald Awatt for 11 yds to the Okla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
96.3%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Reynaldo Flores for 9 yds to the Okla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:5895% → 95%
UTEPDrive 10PUNT4 plays · -12 yds · 2:186% → 5%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
94.5%
Gavin Hardison sacked by David Ugwoegbu for a loss of 10 yards to the UTEP 33Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 20
OWN 33
-4
94.8%
Gavin Hardison sacked by Ethan Downs for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 29Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 24
OWN 29
+2
94.9%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Walter Dawn Jr. for 2 yds to the UTEP 31Similar
Q2 4:56
4TH & 22
OWN 31
0
95.0%
Joshua Sloan punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Marvin Mims at the Okla 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 11TD11 plays · 68 yds · 4:0195% → 97%
Q2 4:56
2ND & 4
50
-5
95.0%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Jadrian Taylor for a loss of 5 yards to the Okla 45Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+8
94.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marcus Major for 8 yds to the UTEP 47Similar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
96.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brayden Willis for 28 yds for a TD, (Zach Schmit KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 12END OF HALF8 plays · 33 yds · 0:554% → 5%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
96.3%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 13 yds to the UTEP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
96.1%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Tyrin Smith for 5 yds to the UTEP 43Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+9
95.9%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Reynaldo Flores for 9 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
95.8%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Marcus Bellon for 4 yds to the Okla 44Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+9
95.8%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Reynaldo Flores for 9 yds to the Okla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-7
95.5%
Gavin Hardison sacked by Reggie Grimes for a loss of 7 yards to the Okla 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 1:264% → 4%
OUDrive 14TD10 plays · 80 yds · 2:4097% → 99%
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
97.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Theo Wease for 5 yds to the Okla 37Similar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+33
97.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Theo Wease for 33 yds to the UTEP 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
97.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brayden Willis for 6 yds to the UTEP 19Similar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
97.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jalil Farooq for 9 yds to the UTEP 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 15DOWNS14 plays · 39 yds · 5:411% → 1%
Q3 10:48
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
98.9%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jeremiah Ballard for 8 yds to the UTEP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
98.9%
PENALTY UTEP False Start (Byers,Jeremiah) 5 yards from UTEP39 to UTEP34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+7
98.9%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jeremiah Ballard for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
50
+5
98.9%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Tyrin Smith for 5 yds to the Okla 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 16TD8 plays · 64 yds · 1:5199% → 100%
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
99.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Theo Wease for 1 yd to the UTEP 21Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+15
99.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Gabriel,Dillon pass intercepted by Johnson,Ilijah at UTEP05, End Of Play PENALTY UTEP Pass Interference (Johnson,Ilijah) 15 yards from UTEP21 to UTEP06, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 17FG12 plays · 38 yds · 4:150% → 0%
Q3 3:16
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
99.8%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Tyrin Smith for 2 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q3 3:16
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
99.8%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Tyrin Smith for 15 yds to the UTEP 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+8
99.8%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Kelly Akharaiyi for 8 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 1:46100% → 100%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Eric Gray for 9 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
99.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marvin Mims for 8 yds to the Okla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Michael Turk punt for 42 yds , Marcus Bellon returns for no gain to the UTEP 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:300% → 0%
OUDrive 20FG9 plays · 37 yds · 5:28100% → 100%
Q4 10:45
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+15
99.9%
Jovantae Barnes run for 15 yds to the UTEP 24 Jovantae Barnes fumbled, forced by Kobe Hylton, recovered by UTEP Jovantae Barnes for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+9
99.9%
Davis Beville run for 4 yds to the UTEP 12 for a 1ST down UTEP Penalty, Personal Foul (Jalen Rudolph) to the UTEP 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 21INT11 plays · 52 yds · 4:590% → 0%
Q4 5:17
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
99.9%
Calvin Brownholtz pass complete to Jeremiah Ballard for 10 yds to the UTEP 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
99.9%
Calvin Brownholtz pass complete to Walter Dawn Jr. for 7 yds to the UTEP 49Similar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-8
99.9%
Calvin Brownholtz sacked by Isaiah Coe for a loss of 8 yards to the UTEP 46Similar
Q4 5:17
4TH & 10
OPP 46
+10
99.9%
Calvin Brownholtz pass complete to Jeremiah Ballard for 10 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
99.9%
Calvin Brownholtz pass complete to Torrance Burgess Jr. for 13 yds to the Okla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:18
Ronald Awatt run for 2 yds for a TD, (Gavin Baechle KICK)
-2.2
TD · Q3 10:48
Marcus Major run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zach Schmit KICK)
+1.9
TD · Q2 0:55
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brayden Willis for 28 yds for a TD, (Zach Schmit KICK)
+1.8