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SMU

SMU 48 at North Texas 10

UNT
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2022 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:59 · Ryan Bujcevski punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the NoTex 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Home team on offense+0.0Score differential−0.1Pregame prior−24.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:05: Tyler Lavine run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jahari Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +3.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:58: Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 51 yds for a TD, (Jahari Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +9.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 4:52: Collin Rogers 39 yd FG GOOD — SMU win probability +6.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:08: Oscar Adaway III run for 35 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +5.8 pts (now 23%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:57: Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 75 yds for a TD, (Jahari Rogers KICK) — SMU win probability +13.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 10 of 13SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 13:59SMU 4th & 2 at SMU 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:59SMU 4th & 2 at SMU 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:17UNT 4th & 3 at UNT 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:04UNT 4th & 2 at SMU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.2%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:05UNT 4th & 3 at SMU 14, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.5%−0.2
    84% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−3.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:14UNT 4th & 16 at SMU 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    20.0%−3.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:50UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 29, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:50UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 29, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:52SMU 4th & 5 at UNT 22, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    79.0%−4.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:02UNT 4th & 5 at UNT 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:32SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 35, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:32SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 35, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:11UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:11UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 11:15SMU 4th & 5 at UNT 44, up 21
    Close callPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    92.0%−0.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q3 11:15SMU 4th & 5 at UNT 44, up 21
    Close callPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    92.0%−0.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:57UNT 4th & 9 at UNT 21, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:15UNT 4th & 9 at SMU 46, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    0.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:47SMU 4th & 4 at UNT 15, up 35
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:52UNT 4th & 6 at SMU 6, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:52UNT 4th & 6 at SMU 6, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:26SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 14, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 7:04SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:05SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:58SMU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:08UNT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:57SMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:54SMU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:16SMU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0175% → 74%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
25.4%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
25.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 5 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
25.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:59
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
25.9%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 44 ydsSimilar
Q1 13:59
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
25.9%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the NoTex 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4226% → 27%
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
25.9%
Isaiah Johnson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+4
25.9%
Isaiah Johnson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+5
25.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 5 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
25.9%
Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
25.9%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+4
25.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jake Roberts for 4 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q1 11:17
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
27.1%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jordan Kerley at the SMU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3TD
14 plays · 82 yds · 4:1373% → 74%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
27.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 9 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+2
27.0%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
27.1%
Tre Siggers run for no gain to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+8
27.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 8 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+6
27.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to RJ Maryland for 6 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
26.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 1 yd to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
26.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+27
27.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 27 yds to the NoTex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
26.7%
MORDECAI, Tanner pass to the right complete for -3 yards to RICE, Rashee caught at the UNT31 and advanced to the UNT32 (GADDIE, DeShawn). PENALTY UNT Offsides enforced 5 yards from the UNT29 to the UNT24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 5
OPP 24
0
26.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+5
26.7%
Tre Siggers run for 5 yds to the NoTex 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
26.7%
Tanner Mordecai run for 3 yds to the NoTex 16Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+7
26.7%
Tre Siggers run for 7 yds to the NoTex 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
25.8%
Tre Siggers run for 9 yds for a TD, (Jahari Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4FUMBLE
8 plays · 39 yds · 3:0327% → 28%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
26.7%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 7 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+11
27.1%
Oscar Adaway III run for 11 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
27.2%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
27.0%
Oscar Adaway III run for 6 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+2
27.3%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q1 7:04
4TH & 2
OPP 49
+8
27.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jake Roberts for 8 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
27.5%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the SMU 46Similar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+10
27.8%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 10 yds Roderic Burns fumbled, recovered by SMU Nick RobertsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 0:5674% → 77%
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+27
26.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Gage Haskin for 27 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
26.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
26.1%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offsides ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
26.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Kelvontay Dixon for 7 yds to the NoTex 5Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+5
22.8%
Tyler Lavine run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jahari Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6MISSED FG
12 plays · 64 yds · 3:5124% → 24%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
23.5%
Oscar Adaway III run for 13 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
23.7%
Oscar Adaway III run for 5 yds to the NoTex 40Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
24.0%
Oscar Adaway III run for 4 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
24.1%
Oscar Adaway III run for 3 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
24.3%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-1
24.2%
Isaiah Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 46Similar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+12
23.8%
AUNE, Austin pass to the right incomplete intended for MCMILLAN, Zhighlil thrown to the SMU44. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on HALL, Kevaris enforced 12 yards to the SMU42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+21
24.3%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 21 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
24.6%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 4 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+5
24.6%
Austin Aune pass complete to Var'Keyes Gumms for 5 yds to the SMU 12Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 12
-2
24.3%
Oscar Adaway III run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 14Similar
Q2 14:05
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+31
24.1%
Ethan Mooney 31 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7FUMBLE
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:2478% → 76%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
22.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 13 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
22.0%
Tre Siggers run for no gain to the SMU 32 Tre Siggers fumbled, recovered by NoTex Tom TriebSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
24.4%
AUNE, Austin pass to the left incomplete intended for SHORTER, Jyaire broken up by ROBERTS, Nick at the SMU0. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on ROGERS, Jahari enforced 15 yards to the SMU17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8FG
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:2724% → 25%
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
24.4%
Oscar Adaway III run for 15 yds to the SMU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
24.3%
Oscar Adaway III run for no gain to the SMU 2Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
23.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for 1 yd to the SMU 1Similar
Q2 12:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-15
23.3%
run for a loss of 15 yards to the SMU 16Similar
Q2 11:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
+33
25.2%
Ethan Mooney 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9TD
1 play · 51 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
16.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 51 yds for a TD, (Jahari Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:0819% → 18%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
19.0%
Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the NoTex 26Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
18.8%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
18.4%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 8 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q2 9:57
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
18.8%
JOHNSON, Isaiah rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the UNT35 (CHATMAN, Elijah). PENALTY Before the snap, UNT False Start on BLAIR, Gabe enforced 5 yards from the UNT34 to the UNT29. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:50
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
18.3%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jordan Kerley at the SMU 26Similar
Q2 9:50
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
18.3%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jordan Kerley at the SMU 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11FG
15 plays · 52 yds · 4:5884% → 87%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
15.6%
Camar Wheaton run for 9 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 1
OWN 35
0
15.6%
Camar Wheaton run for no gain to the SMU 35Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
15.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Ben Redding for 2 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
15.5%
MCDANIEL, TJ rush to the left for a gain of 9 yards to the SMU46 (FAULKNER, Sean-Thomas). PENALTY SMU Holding on THOMAS, Jaylon enforced 10 yards from the SMU37 to the SMU27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+4
15.7%
TJ McDaniel run for 4 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 16
OWN 31
0
15.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:28
3RD & 16
OWN 31
+23
15.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 23 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
14.7%
TJ McDaniel run for 4 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+15
14.7%
TJ McDaniel run for 15 yds to the NoTex 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
14.3%
Preston Stone pass complete to Rashee Rice for no gain to the NoTex 27Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-6
18.4%
Preston Stone pass complete to Teddy Knox for a loss of 6 yards to the NoTex 33Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 16
OPP 33
+11
18.8%
Tre Siggers run for 11 yds to the NoTex 22Similar
Q2 4:52
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+39
12.7%
Collin Rogers 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 2:3815% → 23%
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
14.8%
Oscar Adaway III run for no gain to the NoTex 21Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
14.7%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:46
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+12
14.6%
Austin Aune pass complete to Tommy Bush for 12 yds to the NoTex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
15.0%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
14.9%
Isaiah Johnson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
Q2 4:46
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+29
15.0%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jake Roberts for 29 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
16.8%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for no gain to the SMU 35Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+35
22.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for 35 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
9.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 75 yds for a TD, (Jahari Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5513% → 13%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.3%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
13.2%
Isaiah Johnson run for 5 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
13.4%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
12.9%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jordan Kerley at the SMU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:3091% → 91%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
8.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tre Siggers for 4 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
8.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+3
9.0%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
8.9%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 61 yds, downed at the NoTex 4Similar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
8.9%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 61 yds, downed at the NoTex 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+9
16.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for 9 yds to the NoTex 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4912% → 11%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
11.7%
Oscar Adaway III run for 2 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-4
11.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoTex 23Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+6
11.4%
Austin Aune run for 6 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q3 13:11
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
11.1%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jordan Kerley at the SMU 32Similar
Q3 13:11
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
11.1%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jordan Kerley at the SMU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 1:5692% → 93%
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
8.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 1 yd to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
8.3%
Tre Siggers run for 4 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+14
8.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Gage Haskin for 14 yds to the NoTex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
7.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
7.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 5 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
8.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
6.9%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the NoTex 8Similar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
6.9%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the NoTex 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19INT
17 plays · 89 yds · 5:2810% → 8%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
10.2%
Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the NoTex 9Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 9
OWN 9
-6
10.1%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-6 Yards) to the NoTex 3Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 14
OWN 4
+53
10.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Ja'Mori Maclin for 53 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
11.8%
Ayo Adeyi run for no gain to the SMU 43Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
11.7%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+13
11.6%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 13 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
12.1%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 35Similar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+5
12.0%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 5 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
9.4%
Oscar Adaway III run for 4 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+6
9.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 6 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
9.7%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+15
9.5%
Oscar Adaway III run for 15 yds to the SMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
11.6%
Oscar Adaway III run for no gain to the SMU 5Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
10.8%
Isaiah Johnson run for 2 yds to the SMU 3Similar
Q3 5:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
8.1%
Austin Aune pass interceptedSimilar
Q3 5:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
8.1%
Austin Aune pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 96 yds · 1:5397% → 99%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
3.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+9
3.3%
TJ McDaniel run for 9 yds to the SMU 13Similar
Q3 5:47
3RD & 1
OWN 13
+10
3.3%
TJ McDaniel run for 10 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+54
3.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 54 yds to the NoTex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
2.8%
TJ McDaniel run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 24Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+24
1.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 24 yds for a TD, (Jahari Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:521% → 1%
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
1.2%
Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the NoTex 21Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
1.2%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:49
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
1.2%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:57
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
1.1%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 35 yds , returns for no gain to the SMU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:461% → 1%
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
1.3%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-2
1.3%
Oscar Adaway III run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 2:11
3RD & 12
OPP 39
0
1.1%
Austin Aune pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 51 yds · 2:5599% → 100%
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
1.0%
Tanner Mordecai sacked by KD Davis and Mazin Richards for a loss of 10 yards to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 20
OWN 39
+3
1.0%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q3 2:11
3RD & 17
OWN 42
+30
1.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 30 yds to the NoTex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
1.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to RJ Maryland for 13 yds to the NoTex 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
0.5%
Tre Siggers run for 7 yds to the NoTex 8Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+8
0.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Kelvontay Dixon for 8 yds for a TD, (Jahari Rogers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24DOWNS
8 plays · 29 yds · 3:010% → 0%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
0.4%
Isaiah Johnson run for 9 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
0.4%
Isaiah Johnson run for 9 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
0.4%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 10 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
0.4%
Grant Gunnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+6
0.4%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 6 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 4
OPP 41
-5
0.4%
Grant Gunnell sacked by Keke Burns for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 11:15
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
0.2%
Grant Gunnell pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25FG
7 plays · 39 yds · 4:28100% → 100%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
0.4%
Camar Wheaton run for 16 yds to the NoTex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
0.4%
Preston Stone run for 8 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+9
0.3%
Camar Wheaton run for 9 yds to the NoTex 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
0.3%
Camar Wheaton run for 5 yds to the NoTex 16Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+2
0.3%
Camar Wheaton run for 2 yds to the NoTex 14Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 3
OPP 14
-1
0.3%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 15Similar
Q4 6:47
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+32
0.2%
Brendan Hall 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 26DOWNS
11 plays · 70 yds · 3:550% → 0%
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
0.1%
Ayo Adeyi run for 7 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
0.1%
Ayo Adeyi run for 7 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
0.1%
Ayo Adeyi run for 10 yds to the NoTex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
0.1%
Ayo Adeyi run for 9 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+33
0.1%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Var'Keyes Gumms for 33 yds to the SMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
0.1%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 4 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
0.1%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 6Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
0.1%
Grant Gunnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
0.1%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Ikaika Ragsdale for 1 yd to the SMU 5Similar
Q4 2:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
0.1%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Ikaika Ragsdale for 1 yd to the SMU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:26100% → 100%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
0.4%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for 6 yds to the SMU 11Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 4
OWN 11
0
0.3%
Brandon Epton Jr. run for no gain to the SMU 11Similar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+3
0.2%
Austin Upshaw run for 3 yds to the SMU 14Similar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 1
OWN 14
0
0.2%
Ryan Bujcevski punt for 42 yds, downed at the NoTex 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
0.0%
Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:57
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 75 yds for a TD, (Jahari Rogers KICK)
-13.2
TD · Q2 10:58
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 51 yds for a TD, (Jahari Rogers KICK)
-9.2
FG · Q2 4:52
Collin Rogers 39 yd FG GOOD
-6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com