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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 7 at James Madison 44

JMU
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2022 · Bridgeforth Stadium
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Win probability · JMU
modelJMU aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playJMU scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDSAFETYTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:12 · Kyle Ulbrich punt for 54 yds , Josh Sarratt returns for 17 yds to the JMads 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 114Home team on offense+31.7Score differential+24.6Blowout margin+13.0Garbage-time factor+7.5Pregame prior+3.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:55: Todd Centeio pass complete to Reggie Brown for 20 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +4.2 pts (now 65%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:49: Todd Centeio pass complete to Reggie Brown for 29 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +8.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:05: Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 7 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +13.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:16: Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 35 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +5.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:47: Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 19 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
JMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11MTSU made the numbers' call on 12 of 12
  1. Q1 8:32JMU 4th & 11 at MTSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    61.9%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:24MTSU 4th & 9 at MTSU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:01JMU 4th & 2 at MTSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    62.6%−0.5
    34% to make
    Punt
    62.7%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:01JMU 4th & 2 at MTSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    62.6%−0.5
    34% to make
    Punt
    62.7%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:45MTSU 4th & 3 at JMU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    37.8%−0.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    37.8%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:56MTSU 4th & 11 at MTSU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:02JMU 4th & 24 at MTSU 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−1.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    67.5%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:06MTSU 4th & 18 at MTSU 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−2.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:46MTSU 4th & 7 at MTSU 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:11MTSU 4th & 13 at MTSU 36, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−1.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:16JMU 4th & 5 at MTSU 35, up 21
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.7
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    92.6%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:16JMU 4th & 5 at MTSU 35, up 21
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.7
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    92.6%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 14:02MTSU 4th & 4 at MTSU 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 14:02MTSU 4th & 4 at MTSU 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:37JMU 4th & 7 at JMU 34, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  16. Q3 9:12MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 20, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  17. Q3 7:34JMU 4th & 2 at MTSU 23, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q3 7:34JMU 4th & 2 at MTSU 23, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:47JMU 4th & 6 at MTSU 40, up 30
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 12:43MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 37, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:19MTSU 4th & 11 at MTSU 39, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  22. Q4 4:19MTSU 4th & 11 at MTSU 39, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:04JMU 4th & 7 at JMU 14, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
JMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MTSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 14:55JMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:49JMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:05JMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:16JMU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:47JMU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:31MTSU Touchdown, down 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:49JMU Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
JMUDrive 1MISSED FG
14 plays · 64 yds · 6:2358% → 59%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
58.4%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 4 yds to the JMads 19Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
58.4%
Todd Centeio run for no gain to the JMads 19Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+9
58.4%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 9 yds to the JMads 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
58.4%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+4
58.4%
Todd Centeio run for 4 yds to the JMads 32Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+9
58.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Reggie Brown for 9 yds to the JMads 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+27
58.4%
Todd Centeio run for 27 yds to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
58.4%
Latrele Palmer run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+3
58.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 3 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+5
58.4%
Todd Centeio run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
58.4%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 17
-4
58.4%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 11
OPP 21
0
58.4%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:32
4TH & 11
OPP 21
+37
58.5%
Camden Wise 37 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0842% → 41%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
58.3%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 8
OWN 23
-1
58.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
58.6%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:24
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
58.9%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 51 yds, downed at the JMads 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 3DOWNS
7 plays · 33 yds · 1:2359% → 59%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+25
58.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 25 yds to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
59.3%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 3
OPP 41
0
59.3%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:24
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+1
59.2%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 40 Percy Agyei-Obese fumbled, recovered by JMadsSimilar
Q1 6:01
4TH & 2
OPP 40
0
58.9%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
57.8%
JMU Penalty, Offsides (Jamare Edwards) to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q1 6:01
4TH & 2
OPP 40
0
58.9%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4DOWNS
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:1642% → 42%
Q1 6:01
1ST & 5
OWN 45
+11
57.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 11 yds to the JMads 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
57.4%
Chase Cunningham run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMads 46Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 12
OPP 46
+2
57.7%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the JMads 44Similar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+7
57.8%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 7 yds to the JMads 37Similar
Q1 3:45
4TH & 3
OPP 37
-3
57.9%
Frank Peasant run for a loss of 3 yards to the JMads 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 5TD
11 plays · 60 yds · 3:5059% → 65%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
59.2%
Latrele Palmer run for 4 yds to the JMads 44Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+2
59.6%
Todd Centeio run for 2 yds to the JMads 46Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+8
59.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 8 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
59.8%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+10
59.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 10 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
59.8%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+8
59.8%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+5
59.6%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 5 yds to the MTnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
60.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Reggie Brown for 4 yds to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 19
-1
60.8%
Wayne Knight run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+20
65.0%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Reggie Brown for 20 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5936% → 35%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.6%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
63.7%
Joe Ervin run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
64.3%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:56
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+17
65.0%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 42 yds , Josh Sarratt returns for 17 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 2:5466% → 64%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
65.7%
Latrele Palmer run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+2
65.8%
Latrele Palmer run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
65.8%
Todd Centeio run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+5
65.9%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
65.9%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 8 yds to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 2
OPP 16
-15
65.9%
JMU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 17
OPP 31
0
65.2%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 17
OPP 31
-7
64.6%
Todd Centeio sacked by Jordan Branch for a loss of 7 yards to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q2 11:02
4TH & 24
OPP 38
0
64.4%
Sam Clark punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:5635% → 33%
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
64.9%
Chase Cunningham sacked by Abi Nwabuoku-Okonji for a loss of 5 yards to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+1
65.2%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Marquel Tinsley for 1 yd to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 14
OWN 16
-4
65.8%
Chase Cunningham sacked by Jamree Kromah for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q2 9:06
4TH & 18
OWN 12
0
67.2%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Josh Sarratt at the JMads 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 2:1768% → 76%
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
67.9%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+8
68.0%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
68.0%
Kaelon Black run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+9
68.0%
Todd Centeio run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
76.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Reggie Brown for 29 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0326% → 25%
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
74.3%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
74.1%
Chase Cunningham run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q2 6:49
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
74.6%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:46
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
75.5%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:4177% → 90%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
76.9%
Latrele Palmer run for a loss of 1 yard to the JMads 44Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+15
76.5%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Roughing the Passer on DUNNIGAN, Quindarius enforced (15 Yards) to the MTnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
77.1%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+7
77.1%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
77.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 5 yds to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+3
77.1%
Todd Centeio run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 7Similar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+7
90.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 7 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:5412% → 10%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
88.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 7 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
87.8%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 7 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
87.8%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 2 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
87.8%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 8
OWN 41
-5
88.0%
Chase Cunningham sacked by Isaac Ukwu for a loss of 5 yards to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 13
OWN 36
+18
89.8%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 38 yds , Josh Sarratt returns for 18 yds to the JMads 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:5592% → 91%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
91.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Reggie Brown for 16 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
91.8%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Devin Ravenel for 6 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 4
OPP 34
-5
91.8%
JMU Penalty, False Start (Kris Thornton) to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 9
OPP 39
-9
91.7%
Todd Centeio sacked by Jordan Ferguson for a loss of 9 yards to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 18
OPP 48
+13
91.2%
Latrele Palmer run for 13 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 5
OPP 35
0
91.2%
Sam Clark punt for 30 yds, downed at the MTnSt 5Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 5
OPP 35
0
91.2%
Sam Clark punt for 30 yds, downed at the MTnSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
90.0%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5810% → 9%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
90.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
90.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 5 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
90.1%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:02
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
90.9%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 34 yds , Josh Sarratt returns for no gain to the JMads 35Similar
Q3 14:02
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
90.9%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 34 yds , Josh Sarratt returns for no gain to the JMads 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 16TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:4692% → 98%
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
92.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 10 yds to the JMads 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+20
92.6%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 20 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
98.0%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 35 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17FUMBLE
3 plays · -4 yds · 1:182% → 2%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.2%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.2%
Frank Peasant run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
98.2%
Frank Peasant run for a loss of 9 yards to the MTnSt 35 Frank Peasant fumbled, recovered by JMads Taurus Jones for a 1ST down JMU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 18TD
3 plays · 35 yds · 1:1198% → 99%
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
98.4%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
98.4%
Todd Centeio run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+19
98.8%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 19 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19SF
3 plays · -5 yds · 0:061% → 1%
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
98.8%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (Jahlil Ryles) to the MTnSt 6Similar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 15
OWN 6
-6
98.9%
Xavier Cokley SafetySimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
98.9%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, False Start (Jahlil Ryles) to the MTnSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5599% → 99%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
98.9%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
98.9%
Latrele Palmer run for 3 yds to the JMads 34Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
98.9%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
99.0%
Sam Clark punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Yusuf Ali at the MTnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:251% → 1%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.0%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
99.0%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
99.0%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:12
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+17
99.1%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 54 yds , Josh Sarratt returns for 17 yds to the JMads 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 34 yds · 1:3899% → 99%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
99.1%
Kaelon Black run for 1 yd to the JMads 44Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+25
99.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kaelon Black for 25 yds to the MTnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
99.1%
Kaelon Black run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 2
OPP 23
0
99.1%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 2
OPP 23
0
99.1%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:34
4TH & 2
OPP 23
0
99.3%
Kaelon Black run for no gain to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q3 7:34
4TH & 2
OPP 23
0
99.3%
Kaelon Black run for no gain to the MTnSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23TD
15 plays · 77 yds · 4:031% → 1%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
99.3%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 4 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 6
OWN 27
-3
99.3%
Chase Cunningham run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+15
99.4%
CUNNINGHAM, Chase pass to the right incomplete intended for TINSLEY, Marquel thrown to the MTS35. PENALTY JMU Roughing the Passer on NWABUOKU-OKONJI, Abi enforced 15 yards from the MTS24 to the MTS39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
99.3%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to A'Varius Sparrow for 5 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
99.3%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+6
99.3%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
50
+10
99.3%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 10 yds to the JMads 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
99.1%
CUNNINGHAM, Chase pass to the left complete for 5 yards to TONEY, A.J. caught at the JMU35 and advanced to the JMU35 (WALKER, Jailin). PENALTY MTS Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on RYLES, Jahlil enforced 5 yards from the JMU40 to the JMU45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:34
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+5
99.2%
A'Varius Sparrow run for 5 yds to the JMads 40Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+7
99.2%
A'Varius Sparrow run for 7 yds to the JMads 33Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+4
99.5%
Chase Cunningham run for 4 yds to the JMads 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
99.4%
Frank Peasant run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMads 31Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+5
99.5%
Frank Peasant run for 5 yds to the JMads 26Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+26
99.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 26 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 3:4499% → 100%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.4%
Latrele Palmer run for 3 yds to the JMads 28Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+16
99.4%
Todd Centeio run for 16 yds to the JMads 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
99.5%
Kaelon Black run for 12 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
99.5%
Kaelon Black run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 38
-2
99.6%
Kaelon Black run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
99.6%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
99.6%
Sam Clark punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Yusuf Ali at the MTnSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:040% → 0%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
99.7%
A'Varius Sparrow run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 7Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+9
99.7%
Darius Bracy run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
99.7%
Darius Bracy run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
99.7%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+15
99.7%
CUNNINGHAM, Chase pass to the left incomplete dropped by TOLBERT, Bud thrown to the JMU50. PENALTY JMU Personal Foul on CARPENTER, James enforced 15 yards from the MTS17 to the MTS32 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
99.7%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 5 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
99.7%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
99.7%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:43
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
99.8%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Josh Sarratt at the JMads 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 26TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 5:54100% → 100%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.7%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 2 yds to the JMads 22Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+20
99.7%
Todd Centeio run for 20 yds to the JMads 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
99.7%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 12 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
99.7%
Kaelon Black run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+4
99.7%
Kaelon Black run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+25
99.7%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Targeting on THOMAS, Jakobe enforced half the distance from the goal (Jakobe Thomas) to the MTnSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
99.7%
Latrele Palmer run for a loss of 5 yards to the MTnSt 13Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+4
99.9%
Latrele Palmer run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 9Similar
Q4 6:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Devin Ravenel 9 Yd pass from Todd Centeio (Camden Wise Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:300% → 0%
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
99.9%
Chase Cunningham sacked by Jamree Kromah for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+2
99.9%
A'Varius Sparrow run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+16
99.9%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Javonte Sherman for 16 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
99.9%
A'Varius Sparrow run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-2
99.9%
A'Varius Sparrow run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Chase Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:19
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Josh Sarratt at the JMads 11Similar
Q4 4:19
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Josh Sarratt at the JMads 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:15100% → 100%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
99.9%
Sammy Malignaggi run for 5 yds to the JMads 16Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+2
99.9%
Sammy Malignaggi run for 2 yds to the JMads 18Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 3
OWN 18
-4
99.9%
Devin Ravenel run for a loss of 4 yards to the JMads 14Similar
Q4 2:04
4TH & 7
OWN 14
0
100.0%
Sam Clark punt for 61 yds, downed at the MTnSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 29END OF GAME
3 plays · 1 yds · 2:040% → 0%
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
100.0%
Preston Rice pass complete to Elijah Metcalf for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+2
100.0%
Darius Bracy run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+2
100.0%
Darius Bracy run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:05
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 7 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)
+13
TD · Q2 6:49
Todd Centeio pass complete to Reggie Brown for 29 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)
+8.4
TD · Q3 13:16
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 35 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)
+5.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com