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FAU

Florida Atlantic 38 at Ohio 41

OHIO
2022 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2022 · Peden Stadium
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Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreFAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:43 · Riley Thompson punt for 47 yds , Tyler Walton returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Ohio 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialDefense timeouts
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 111Pregame prior−9.0Home team on offense+1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential+0.7Defense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:33: Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 5 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — OHIO win probability +13.6 pts (now 55%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:24: Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 1 yd for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — OHIO win probability +14.0 pts (now 72%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:20: Kurtis Rourke run for 2 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — OHIO win probability +11.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:22: N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Tony Johnson for 9 yds for a TD, (Morgan Suarez KICK) — FAU win probability +12.1 pts (now 19%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:09: LaJohntay Wester 7 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Morgan Suarez Kick) — FAU win probability +30.9 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Defense has -5 timeouts left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 8 of 8FAU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 8:43OHIO 4th & 12 at OHIO 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:00OHIO 4th & 10 at FAU 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    34.6%−1.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:50FAU 4th & 7 at OHIO 7, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    58.1%−3.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:47OHIO 4th & 15 at OHIO 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−1.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:47OHIO 4th & 15 at OHIO 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−1.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:49FAU 4th & 11 at FAU 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:24OHIO 4th & 13 at FAU 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−1.8
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    27.3%−5.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:21FAU 4th & 6 at FAU 29, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−1.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:43FAU 4th & 3 at FAU 29, down 3
    Close callPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:52FAU 4th & 9 at OHIO 38, down 10
    Close callPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    23.8%−0.4
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:52FAU 4th & 9 at OHIO 38, down 10
    Close callPunted · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    23.8%−0.4
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:09OHIO 4th & 10 at OHIO 37, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:15OHIO 4th & 10 at OHIO 1, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−2.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:36OHIO 4th & 6 at OHIO 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−2.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:32FAU 4th & 10 at FAU 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.9%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.8%−3.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:32FAU 4th & 10 at FAU 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.9%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.8%−3.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 5 of 5FAU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:10FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:13OHIO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:38FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:33OHIO Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:24OHIO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:20OHIO Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:22FAU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.4%−0.6
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:10OHIO Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:09FAU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.4%−0.6
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:09FAU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.9%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FAUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5071% → 71%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
28.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 16 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
28.6%
Larry McCammon run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+11
28.6%
Larry McCammon run for 11 yds to the Ohio 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
28.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 7 yds to the Ohio 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 37
0
28.6%
Larry McCammon run for no gain to the Ohio 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+7
28.6%
N'Kosi Perry run for 7 yds to the Ohio 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
28.6%
Larry McCammon run for 4 yds to the Ohio 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+6
28.6%
Larry McCammon run for 6 yds to the Ohio 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
28.6%
Larry McCammon run for no gain to the Ohio 20Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
28.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 20 yds for a TD, (Morgan Suarez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:2229% → 29%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
29.1%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Ohio 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
29.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sieh Bangura for 5 yds to the Ohio 48Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 5
OWN 48
-10
29.5%
ROURKE, Kurtis pass to the right complete for 12 yards to CROSS, Miles caught at the FAU45 and advanced to the FAU40 (MUNGIN, Romain). PENALTY OHI Holding on RAMER, Bryce enforced 10 yards from the OHI48 to the OHI38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+11
29.2%
Sieh Bangura run for 11 yds to the Ohio 49Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 4
OWN 49
-8
29.4%
Kurtis Rourke sacked by Romain Mungin for a loss of 8 yards to the Ohio 41Similar
Q1 8:43
4TH & 12
OWN 41
0
28.9%
Jonah Wieland punt for 42 yds , returns for no gain to the FlAtl 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:4330% → 31%
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
30.1%
Sieh Bangura run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 14Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+2
30.1%
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 12Similar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
29.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to James Bostic for no gain to the FlAtl 12Similar
Q1 7:00
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+29
31.2%
Nathanial Vakos 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4FG
13 plays · 68 yds · 4:1069% → 71%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
31.4%
Larry McCammon run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
31.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 4 yds to the FlAtl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
31.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 10 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
30.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 12 yds to the Ohio 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
30.6%
PERRY, N'Kosi pass to the right complete for 8 yards to ALEXANDER, BJ caught at the OHI35 and advanced to the OHI34 (SANDERS, Zack), out of bounds. PENALTY FAU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on HINTON, Dorian enforced 5 yards from the OHI42 to the OHI47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+8
30.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Larry McCammon for 8 yds to the Ohio 39Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+5
30.6%
Zuberi Mobley run for 5 yds to the Ohio 34Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+24
30.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Marvin Landy for 24 yds to the Ohio 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
30.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
30.3%
LaJohntay Wester run for 3 yds to the Ohio 7Similar
Q1 2:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
30.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
28.9%
Morgan Suarez 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 5TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3729% → 38%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
28.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 10 yds to the Ohio 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
28.6%
Sieh Bangura run for 3 yds to the Ohio 38Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+14
29.1%
Sieh Bangura run for 14 yds to the FlAtl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
29.6%
Kurtis Rourke run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
29.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+30
29.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 30 yds to the FlAtl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
30.6%
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+7
30.6%
Kurtis Rourke run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 6Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+6
37.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 6 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 3:3565% → 73%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
34.7%
Zuberi Mobley run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+43
34.5%
Zuberi Mobley run for 53 yds to the OHIO 17 FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jahmal Edrine) to the FlAtl 23Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 14
OWN 23
0
35.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 14
OWN 23
+28
35.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Larry McCammon for 28 yds to the Ohio 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
33.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
33.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+22
34.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Zuberi Mobley for 22 yds to the Ohio 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
32.5%
Zuberi Mobley run for 4 yds to the Ohio 23Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
32.5%
Zuberi Mobley run for no gain to the Ohio 23Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+7
33.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 7 yds to the Ohio 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
27.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 16 yds for a TD, (Morgan Suarez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 1:5130% → 35%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
30.4%
Julian Ross run for 10 yds to the Ohio 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
36.0%
Sieh Bangura run for 3 yds to the Ohio 48Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
36.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 7
OWN 48
-8
35.6%
Kurtis Rourke sacked by Marlon Krakue for a loss of 8 yards to the Ohio 40Similar
Q2 8:47
4TH & 15
OWN 40
+4
34.5%
Jonah Wieland punt for 51 yds , LaJohntay Wester returns for 4 yds to the FlAtl 13Similar
Q2 8:47
4TH & 15
OWN 40
+4
34.5%
Jonah Wieland punt for 51 yds , LaJohntay Wester returns for 4 yds to the FlAtl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 3:5867% → 66%
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
33.3%
Larry McCammon run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
33.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Tony Johnson for no gain to the FlAtl 23Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
33.3%
N'Kosi Perry run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+8
33.2%
N'Kosi Perry run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
32.5%
N'Kosi Perry run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+10
32.3%
Larry McCammon run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
31.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
31.7%
Zuberi Mobley run for 4 yds to the Ohio 49Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 6
OPP 49
-5
31.7%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 11
OWN 46
0
32.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:49
4TH & 11
OWN 46
+2
34.0%
Riley Thompson punt for 41 yds , Tyler Walton returns for 2 yds to the Ohio 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9FG
10 plays · 66 yds · 3:2535% → 39%
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+29
34.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to James Bostic for 29 yds to the Ohio 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
36.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Tyler Walton for 7 yds to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+13
37.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to James Bostic for 13 yds to the FlAtl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
37.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 6 yds to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+14
38.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 14 yds to the FlAtl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-4
38.1%
Kurtis Rourke sacked by Eddie Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the FlAtl 20Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 14
OPP 20
+1
38.8%
Sieh Bangura run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 19Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 13
OPP 19
0
37.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 13
OPP 19
+36
39.4%
Nathanial Vakos 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:0357% → 53%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
42.8%
Larry McCammon run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
44.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 2 yds to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
45.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
47.3%
Riley Thompson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tyler Walton at the Ohio 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:2140% → 43%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+25
39.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to James Bostic for 25 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
43.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
43.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 12TD
13 plays · 87 yds · 4:2135% → 55%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
35.4%
Sieh Bangura run for 6 yds to the Ohio 19Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+6
35.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Tyler Walton for 6 yds to the Ohio 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
35.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Tyler Walton for 24 yds to the Ohio 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
38.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+14
38.1%
Kurtis Rourke run for 14 yds to the FlAtl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
39.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Alec Burton for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 38Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+3
38.9%
Sieh Bangura run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 35Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+17
38.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Tyler Walton for 17 yds to the FlAtl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
41.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Tyler Walton for 9 yds to the FlAtl 9Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+4
41.3%
Kurtis Rourke run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
54.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 5 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4451% → 48%
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
49.0%
Larry McCammon run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+7
49.1%
Larry McCammon run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q3 10:27
3RD & 1
OWN 31
-2
48.0%
Larry McCammon run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q3 8:43
4TH & 3
OWN 29
-2
52.1%
Riley Thompson punt for 47 yds , Tyler Walton returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Ohio 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 14TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 4:1951% → 72%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
50.8%
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds to the Ohio 24Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+18
50.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 18 yds to the Ohio 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
53.9%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Personal Foul (LaJohntay Wester) to the FlAtl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
55.2%
Sieh Bangura run for 16 yds to the FlAtl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
55.5%
Sieh Bangura run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 16Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+15
57.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 15 yds to the FlAtl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
57.6%
Kurtis Rourke run for no gain to the FlAtl 1Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
57.6%
Kurtis Rourke run for no gain to the FlAtl 1Similar
Q3 4:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 1 yd for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 37 yds · 1:3230% → 29%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
70.2%
Larry McCammon run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+37
70.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Tony Johnson for 37 yds to the Ohio 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
66.1%
N'Kosi Perry run for 1 yd to the Ohio 38Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
66.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
66.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:52
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
70.7%
Riley Thompson punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Tyler Walton at the Ohio 13Similar
Q3 2:52
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
70.7%
Riley Thompson punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Tyler Walton at the Ohio 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:4377% → 83%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
77.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 12 yds to the Ohio 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
76.2%
Sieh Bangura run for 3 yds to the Ohio 28Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
75.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 9 yds to the Ohio 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
76.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Tyler Walton for 1 yd to the Ohio 38Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-10
76.7%
ROURKE, Kurtis pass to the right incomplete intended for CROSS, Miles broken up by ADAMS, Armani at the OHI50. PENALTY OHI Holding on RAMER, Bryce enforced 10 yards from the OHI38 to the OHI28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 19
OWN 28
-3
82.8%
Kurtis Rourke sacked by Marlon Krakue for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 22
OWN 25
+12
82.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 12 yds to the Ohio 37Similar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+17
82.9%
Jonah Wieland punt for 45 yds , LaJohntay Wester returns for 17 yds to the FlAtl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 17FUMBLE
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
76.3%
N'Kosi Perry sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the FlAtl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 18TD
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:3787% → 98%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
87.1%
Kurtis Rourke run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+11
87.0%
Sieh Bangura run for 11 yds to the FlAtl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
86.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+15
87.1%
ROURKE, Kurtis pass to the left incomplete intended for JONES, Jacoby thrown to the FAU0. PENALTY FAU Pass Interference on HILL, Daedae enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the FAU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.1%
Kurtis Rourke run for 2 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 19TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:586% → 19%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
94.2%
PERRY, N'Kosi pass to the right incomplete intended for BURTON, Je'Quan thrown to the OHI40. PENALTY OHI Offsides on WATKINS, Vonnie declined OHI Roughing the Passer on WEAVER, Bradley enforced 15 yards from the FAU25 to the FAU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
94.0%
N'Kosi Perry sacked by Jack McCrory for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+4
94.0%
N'Kosi Perry run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+20
94.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 20 yds to the Ohio 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
93.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
93.8%
PERRY, N'Kosi pass to the right complete for 18 yards to EDRINE, Jahmal caught at the OHI19 and advanced to the OHI19 (JOHNSON, Ben), out of bounds. PENALTY OHI Targeting on JOHNSON, Ben enforced half the distance from the goal, 10 yards from the OHI19 to the OHI9 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
92.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
80.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Tony Johnson for 9 yds for a TD, (Morgan Suarez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 20TD
6 plays · 83 yds · 3:0893% → 99%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
93.2%
Sieh Bangura run for 1 yd to the Ohio 18Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+2
93.1%
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds to the Ohio 20Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+54
92.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to James Bostic for 54 yds to the FlAtl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
94.0%
OHIO Penalty, False Start (Hagen Meservy) to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+16
93.9%
Sieh Bangura run for 16 yds to the FlAtl 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
98.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to James Bostic for 15 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 21TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:013% → 12%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+57
96.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 57 yds to the Ohio 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
95.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 11 yds to the Ohio 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
88.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 7 yds for a TD, (Morgan Suarez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:5398% → 98%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
97.6%
Sieh Bangura run for 1 yd to the Ohio 2Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+2
97.9%
Sieh Bangura run for 2 yds to the Ohio 4Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 7
OWN 4
-3
98.0%
Kurtis Rourke run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 1Similar
Q4 4:15
4TH & 10
OWN 1
+41
97.8%
Jonah Wieland punt for 47 yds , LaJohntay Wester returns for 41 yds to the Ohio 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 23TD
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q4 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
61.3%
LaJohntay Wester 7 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Morgan Suarez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:2781% → 86%
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
80.5%
Sieh Bangura run for 5 yds to the Ohio 36Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+3
85.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 3 yds to the Ohio 39Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+1
84.7%
Sieh Bangura run for 1 yd to the Ohio 40Similar
Q4 2:35
4TH & 1
OWN 40
-5
83.6%
OHIO Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the Ohio 35Similar
Q4 1:36
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
85.8%
Jonah Wieland punt for 36 yds, fair catch by LaJohntay Wester at the FlAtl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 25DOWNS
9 plays · 22 yds · 1:0419% → 16%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
80.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 12 yds to the FlAtl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
79.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+10
80.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 10 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
78.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
79.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
82.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:32
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
84.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:32
4TH & 10
OWN 41
0
84.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:09
LaJohntay Wester 7 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Morgan Suarez Kick)
-30.9
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+15.7
TD · Q3 4:24
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 1 yd for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
+14
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com