2022 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2022 · Protective Stadium
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Win probability · UAB
modelUAB aheadAAMU aheadconfidence bandkey playUAB scoreAAMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:13 · Taven Curry run for 5 yds to the AlaAM 7 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 11:18: Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 19 yds for a TD, (Matt Quinn KICK) — AAMU win probability +0.2 pts (now 1%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q1 7:26: Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Bryce Damous for 25 yds for a TD, (Matt Quinn KICK) — UAB win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:19: Mac McWilliams 78 Yd Interception Return (Matt Quinn Kick) — UAB win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AAMU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Matt Quinn 51 yd FG GOOD — UAB win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UAB made the numbers' call on 3 of 5AAMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
- Q1 9:32AAMU 4th & 6 at AAMU 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.6%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q1 8:33AAMU 4th & 8 at AAMU 27, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q1 7:44UAB 4th & 20 at UAB 16, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.3%−0.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.5%average punt
- Q1 7:26AAMU 4th & 1 at AAMU 47, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.2%−0.1average punt
- Q1 2:50AAMU 4th & 12 at midfield, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q2 11:27AAMU 4th & 7 at UAB 23, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%−0.136% to convertField goal0.7%70% to makePunt-0.4%−1.1average punt
- Q2 6:49AAMU 4th & 5 at AAMU 27, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q2 2:35UAB 4th & 17 at UAB 48, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.5%−0.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.6%average punt
- Q2 1:51AAMU 4th & 1 at AAMU 29, down 35Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%−0.1average punt
- Q2 0:00UAB 4th & 11 at AAMU 34, up 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.6%−<0.127% to convertField goalTheir call99.6%47% to makePunt99.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 10:33AAMU 4th & 5 at UAB 35, down 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%42% to convertField goal0.3%−<0.145% to makePunt0.2%−0.1average punt
- Q3 5:44AAMU 4th & 4 at AAMU 42, down 52Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%average punt
- Q4 15:00AAMU 4th & 1 at UAB 39, down 59Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%70% to convertField goal-0.1%−0.236% to makePunt-0.1%−0.2average punt
- Q4 12:29AAMU 4th & 4 at UAB 29, down 59Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.0%48% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.158% to makePunt-0.3%−0.3average punt
- Q4 5:13UAB 4th & 5 at AAMU 12, up 59Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.138% to convertField goal99.9%86% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 2:10UAB 4th & 13 at AAMU 13, up 59Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%−0.117% to convertField goal99.9%85% to makePunt99.6%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UAB made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 11:18UAB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:26UAB Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:19UAB Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:57UAB Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:47UAB Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:44UAB Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:14UAB Touchdown, up 58 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUABDrive 1TD10 plays · 70 yds · 3:3899% → 99%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
99.0%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Jermaine Brown Jr. for 12 yds to the UAB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
99.0%
PENALTY UAB False Start (Bedosky,Trey) 5 yards from UAB42 to UAB37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+11
99.0%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to TJ Jones for 11 yds to the AlaAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+10
99.0%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 10 yds to the AlaAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AAMUDrive 2PUNT TD5 plays · 4 yds · 1:461% → 1%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.8%
Quincy Casey pass complete to Bryson Clark for 5 yds to the AlaAM 30Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-1
98.8%
Quincy Casey sacked by Grayson Cash for a loss of 1 yard to the AlaAM 29Similar
Q1 9:32
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
98.8%
Troy Lendvay punt blocked by Charlie Goode blocked by Charlie Goode for a TD, (Matt Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AAMUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:591% → 1%
Q1 8:33
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
98.8%
Troy Lendvay punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Starling Thomas V at the UAB 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 4PUNT5 plays · -10 yds · 0:4999% → 99%
AAMUDrive 5FUMBLE1 play · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
98.7%
Quincy Casey sacked by Kyle Harrell for a loss of 1 yard to the AlaAM 40 Quincy Casey fumbled, recovered by UAB Damien Miller , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 6TD2 plays · 40 yds · 0:0799% → 99%
AAMUDrive 7PUNT11 plays · 25 yds · 4:361% → 1%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
98.9%
Xaiver Lankford pass complete to Cameron Young for no gain to the AlaAM 38Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
98.9%
Donovan Eaglin run for 4 yds to the AlaAM 42 Donovan Eaglin fumbled, forced by Damien Miller, recovered by AlaAMSimilar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+5
98.9%
Xaiver Lankford pass complete to Brian Jenkins Jr. for 5 yds to the AlaAM 47Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 12
50
0
98.9%
Xaiver Lankford pass complete to Brian Jenkins Jr. for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:50
4TH & 12
50
0
98.9%
Troy Lendvay punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Starling Thomas V at the UAB 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 8INT5 plays · 32 yds · 1:3499% → 99%
AAMUDrive 9INT TD4 plays · 40 yds · 0:571% → 1%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+29
98.9%
Xaiver Lankford pass complete to Isiah Cox for 29 yds to the UAB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
98.8%
Xaiver Lankford pass complete to Diata Burns for 1 yd to the UAB 31Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+30
98.8%
Xaiver Lankford pass complete to Brian Jenkins Jr. for 5 yds to the UAB 26 for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, Holding Personal Foul (25 Yards) to the UAB 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AAMUDrive 10DOWNS16 plays · 55 yds · 3:331% → 1%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
99.3%
Xaiver Lankford pass complete to Keenan Hambrick for 9 yds to the AlaAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+15
99.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Lankford,Xavier pass incomplete short right to Gardner,Terrell QB hurried by Bratton,Jackson PENALTY UAB Pass Interference (Boler,Will) 15 yards from AAM44 to UAB41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 6
OPP 37
-5
99.4%
PENALTY AAM False Start (Cox,Isiah) 5 yards from UAB37 to UAB42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 11
OPP 42
+16
99.4%
Xaiver Lankford pass complete to Brian Jenkins Jr. for 16 yds to the UAB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 11TD6 plays · 80 yds · 2:3099% → 99%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
99.3%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Samario Rudolph for 10 yds to the UAB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
99.3%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to TJ Jones for 15 yds to the UAB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+21
99.4%
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 21 yds to the AlaAM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+29
99.4%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 29 yds to the AlaAM 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AAMUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 2:000% → 0%
Q2 6:49
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
99.7%
Troy Lendvay punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Starling Thomas V at the UAB 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 13PUNT9 plays · 18 yds · 4:14100% → 100%
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 4 yds to the UAB 34Similar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
99.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to TJ Jones for 12 yds to the AlaAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
99.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Brody Dalton for 6 yds to the AlaAM 39Similar
Q2 6:49
3RD & 7
OPP 42
-10
99.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hopkins,Dylan rush right for 25 yards gain to the AAM17 (Conner,Aadreekis), out of bounds PENALTY UAB Holding (Richey,Eli) 10 yards from AAM42 to UAB48. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AAMUDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:440% → 0%
Q2 1:51
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
99.7%
Troy Lendvay punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Starling Thomas V at the UAB 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 15FG7 plays · 31 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
Q2 1:51
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+31
99.7%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Samario Rudolph for 31 yds to the AlaAM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-10
99.7%
Dylan Hopkins sacked by Jamal Irby for a loss of 10 yards to the AlaAM 43Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 20
OPP 43
+14
99.7%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Tejhaun Palmer for 14 yds to the AlaAM 29Similar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 6
OPP 29
-5
99.7%
PENALTY UAB False Start (Richey,Eli) 5 yards from AAM29 to AAM34. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AAMUDrive 16DOWNS12 plays · 40 yds · 4:270% → 0%
UABDrive 17TD4 plays · 65 yds · 0:46100% → 100%
AAMUDrive 18INT6 plays · 11 yds · 1:090% → 0%
Q3 9:41
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+7
99.9%
Quincy Casey pass complete to Brian Jenkins Jr. for 7 yds to the AlaAM 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 19TD9 plays · 37 yds · 2:48100% → 100%
Q3 8:32
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+10
99.9%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Dexter Boykin for 10 yds to the AlaAM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+15
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Zeno,Jacob pass incomplete short left to Davis,Ryan, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY AAM Pass Interference (McNeal,JaBraun) 15 yards from AAM21 to AAM06, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Terrell McDonald for 4 yds for a TD, (Matt Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AAMUDrive 20INT9 plays · 21 yds · 3:100% → 0%
UABDrive 21TD3 plays · 47 yds · 1:20100% → 100%
Q3 2:34
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+12
99.9%
Jacob Zeno pass complete to Brody Dalton for 12 yds to the AlaAM 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AAMUDrive 22DOWNS11 plays · 44 yds · 3:450% → 0%
Q3 1:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+25
100.0%
Xaiver Lankford pass complete to Isiah Cox for 25 yds to the UAB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+4
100.0%
Xaiver Lankford pass complete to Brian Jenkins Jr. for 4 yds to the UAB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
4TH & 4
OPP 29
-2
100.0%
Xaiver Lankford sacked by Reise Collier for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 23DOWNS17 plays · 53 yds · 10:19100% → 100%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
100.0%
PENALTY UAB False Start (Reid,Tater) 5 yards from UAB31 to UAB26. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AAMUDrive 24END OF GAME3 plays · -5 yds · 2:100% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 0:19
Mac McWilliams 78 Yd Interception Return (Matt Quinn Kick)
+0.5
TD · Q1 11:18
Jermaine Brown Jr. run for 19 yds for a TD, (Matt Quinn KICK)
-0.2
TD · Q1 7:26
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Bryce Damous for 25 yds for a TD, (Matt Quinn KICK)
+0.2