2022 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2022 · FIU Stadium
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Win probability · FIU
modelFIU aheadBRY aheadconfidence bandkey playFIU scoreBRY score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:08 · Lexington Joseph 4 Yd pass from Gunnar Holmberg (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:15: Ishod Byarm 2 Yd Run (Ethan Gettman PAT blocked) — FIU win probability +46.7 pts (now 70%) (top driver: BRY has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: Anthony Frederick 25 Yd pass from Zevi Eckhaus (Ethan Gettman Kick) — BRY win probability +49.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: BRY has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:07: G. Moloney pass,to J. Edmond for 21 yds for a TD, (E. Gettman KICK), (E. Gettman KICK) — BRY win probability +14.1 pts (now 66%) (top driver: BRY has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:25: Kris Mitchell 17 Yd pass from Grayson James (Chase Gabriel Kick) — FIU win probability +37.2 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
- TD · Q4 4:08: Kris Mitchell 46 Yd pass from Grayson James (Chase Gabriel Kick) — FIU win probability +21.0 pts (now 27%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FIU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11BRY made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 13:34FIU 4th & 8 at FIU 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snapGo for it76.2%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.2%average punt
- Q1 0:00BRY 4th & 2 at FIU 39, up 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.6%57% to convertField goal30.8%−0.836% to makePunt30.8%−0.8average punt
- Q1 4:23FIU 4th & 3 at midfield, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call72.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt72.3%−0.2average punt
- Q1 1:57BRY 4th & 2 at FIU 2, up 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.9%48% to convertField goal31.2%−0.794% to makePunt28.2%−3.7average punt
- Q1 1:52BRY 4th & 6 at FIU 6, up 9Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.0% before the snapGo for it31.6%−0.131% to convertField goalTheir call31.7%91% to makePunt28.7%−3.0average punt
- Q2 13:41FIU 4th & 18 at FIU 36, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.2% before the snapGo for it63.2%−1.513% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.7%average punt
- Q2 8:03BRY 4th & 13 at FIU 48, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snapGo for it39.3%−0.721% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.0%average punt
- Q2 6:02FIU 4th & 15 at FIU 27, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snapGo for it54.5%−2.016% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call56.4%average punt
- Q2 0:00FIU 4th & 3 at FIU 43, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call48.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt48.2%−0.2average punt
- Q3 12:26BRY 4th & 21 at BRY 13, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.5% before the snapGo for it51.2%−4.38% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.5%average punt
- Q3 9:51FIU 4th & 13 at BRY 32, down 11Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 39.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call37.4%−1.521% to convertField goal39.0%51% to makePunt37.7%−1.3average punt
- Q3 0:00FIU 4th & 1 at BRY 48, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call29.2%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt26.1%−3.1average punt
- Q3 6:32FIU 4th & 9 at FIU 2, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snapGo for it31.3%−3.327% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.6%average punt
- Q3 6:23FIU 4th & 4 at FIU 7, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snapGo for it33.7%−0.245% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.0%average punt
- Q3 0:00BRY 4th & 4 at FIU 25, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call73.8%47% to convertField goal73.0%−0.866% to makePunt64.7%−9.1average punt
- Q4 11:57BRY 4th & 19 at BRY 34, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.4% before the snapGo for it59.5%−5.811% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.3%average punt
- Q4 4:08FIU 4th & 7 at BRY 46, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.5%37% to convertField goal19.2%−4.323% to makePunt19.2%−4.3average punt
- Q4 0:23FIU 4th & 10 at FIU 25, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.9%28% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt9.6%−1.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FIU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1BRY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 2:07BRY Touchdown, up 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.6%97% to makeGo for two58.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q2 0:08FIU Touchdown, down 10 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick50.7%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call50.6%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFIUDrive 1PUNT15 plays · 2 yds · 13:3474% → 70%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 2TD12 plays · 59 yds · 6:1530% → 35%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+5
66.1%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Jalen Powell for 5 yds to the Brynt 43Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+10
65.8%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Ishod Byarm for 10 yds to the FlaIn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+11
66.0%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to David Zorrilla for 11 yds to the FlaIn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
64.9%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Anthony White for 5 yds to the FlaIn 12Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
64.9%
Zevi Eckhaus pass incomplete to Anthony Frederick for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Demetrius Hill) to the FlaIn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 3DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 4:2369% → 65%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
64.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jackson McDonald for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 4TD6 plays · 52 yds · 1:5734% → 36%
FIUDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 1:1964% → 62%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
63.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Josiah Miamen for 7 yds to the FlaIn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 6TD1 play · 25 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
12.7%
Anthony Frederick 25 Yd pass from Zevi Eckhaus (Ethan Gettman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 7TD8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
21.1%
Grayson James pass complete to EJ Wilson Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Brynt 26Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+15
16.7%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Tyrese Chambers, broken up by Colin Elliott for a 1ST down BRYANT Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Colin Elliott) to the Brynt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
19.0%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Tyrese Chambers, broken up by Lake EllisSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+5
17.1%
Tyrese Chambers 5 Yd pass from Grayson James (Grayson James Pass to EJ Wilson Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 8PUNT11 plays · 39 yds · 8:5441% → 54%
Q2 0:00
2ND & 14
OWN 28
+14
49.1%
Gage Moloney pass complete to Jalen Powell for 14 yds to the Brynt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
46.4%
Gage Moloney pass complete to Jalen Powell for 2 yds to the Brynt 44Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
45.6%
Gage Moloney pass incomplete to David Zorrilla, broken up by Henry GraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 14 yds · 6:0254% → 48%
Q2 6:02
4TH & 15
OWN 27
+4
54.0%
Daton Montiel punt for 39 yds , Jalen Powell returns for 4 yds to the Brynt 38Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+19
49.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 19 yds to the FlaIn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
50.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 4 yds to the FlaIn 36Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 15
OWN 27
0
48.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jalen Bracey, broken up by Colin ElliottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 10TD10 plays · 62 yds · 2:0766% → 70%
Q2 2:07
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+21
34.2%
G. Moloney pass,to J. Edmond for 21 yds for a TD, (E. Gettman KICK), (E. Gettman KICK)Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
31.7%
Gage Moloney pass complete to Landon Ruggieri for 11 yds to the Brynt 49 for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Henry Gray) to the Brynt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 9
50
+13
31.3%
Gage Moloney pass complete to Jalen Powell for 13 yds to the FlaIn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+5
30.4%
Gage Moloney pass complete to Jalen Powell for 5 yds to the FlaIn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 11TD14 plays · 75 yds · 0:2042% → 46%
Q2 0:20
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+8
42.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 8 yds to the Brynt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
51.3%
Lexington Joseph 4 Yd pass from Gunnar Holmberg (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
46.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Dean Patterson for 11 yds to the FlaIn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+1
47.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to EJ Wilson Jr. for 1 yd to the FlaIn 43Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 3
OWN 43
+12
46.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Josiah Miamen for 12 yds to the Brynt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
49.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Tyrese Chambers, broken up by Chris YatesSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+13
49.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to EJ Wilson Jr. for 13 yds to the Brynt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
51.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 7 yds to the Brynt 25Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
51.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Ross Fournet for 8 yds to the Brynt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 12PUNT5 plays · -12 yds · 12:2655% → 73%
FIUDrive 13DOWNS7 plays · 25 yds · 10:4343% → 28%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
42.8%
Gunnar Holmberg sacked by Christopher Eaton Jr. for 0 yards to the Brynt 44 for a 1ST down BRYANT Penalty, personal foul (Christopher Eaton Jr.) to the Brynt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
28.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Rivaldo Fairweather BRYANT Penalty, off-side (Kenny Dyson Jr.) to the FlaIn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 14FUMBLE7 plays · 66 yds · 8:2666% → 77%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-8
33.9%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to David Zorrilla for 2 yds to the FlaIn 14 BRYANT Penalty, Offensive holding (Konor Lathrop) to the FlaIn 24Similar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 18
OPP 24
+22
34.2%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Jalen Powell for 22 yds to the FlaIn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
32.2%
Ishod Byarm run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 1 Ishod Byarm fumbled, recovered by FlaIn Donovan ManuelSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+31
24.1%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Anthony Frederick for 31 yds to the FlaIn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
23.2%
pass incomplete to Derick Eugene BRYANT Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass ( Yards) to the FlaIn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 6:3233% → 25%
Q3 6:32
4TH & 9
OWN 2
0
32.7%
Daton Montiel punt , Jalen Powell returns for no gain to the FlaIn 2 BRYANT Penalty, roughing kicker (Matthew Prochaska) to the FlaIn 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 16Uncategorized12 plays · 33 yds · 0:0076% → 77%
Q3 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 40
+18
25.2%
Gage Moloney pass complete to Landon Ruggieri for 18 yds to the FlaIn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+2
23.6%
Gage Moloney pass complete to Kyle Cichanowsky for 2 yds to the FlaIn 39Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+8
23.9%
Gage Moloney pass complete to Jalen Powell for 8 yds to the FlaIn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
23.3%
Gage Moloney pass incomplete to Jalen Powell, broken up by Jamal PottsSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+6
23.7%
Gage Moloney pass complete to Derick Eugene for 6 yds to the FlaIn 25Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+6
26.3%
Gage Moloney pass complete to Landon Ruggieri for 6 yds to the FlaIn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 24
0
23.3%
Gage Moloney pass incomplete to Anthony Frederick, broken up by Hezekiah MassesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 17TD11 plays · 69 yds · 1:5827% → 50%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
27.3%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Dean Patterson, broken up by Colin ElliottSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+14
26.6%
Grayson James pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 14 yds to the FlaIn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+21
47.9%
Grayson James pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 21 yds to the Brynt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-5
51.0%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, false start (Shamar Hobdy-Lee) to the Brynt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 27
+13
48.6%
Grayson James pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 13 yds to the Brynt 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+8
48.7%
Grayson James pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 8 yds to the Brynt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
50.0%
Tyrese Chambers 6 Yd pass from Grayson James (Chase Gabriel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -9 yds · 11:5764% → 92%
Q4 11:57
4TH & 19
OWN 34
+6
35.9%
Ethan Gettman punt for 40 yds , Tyrese Chambers returns for 6 yds to the FlaIn 32Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 44
-5
6.7%
pass incomplete to Landon Ruggieri BRYANT Penalty, false start (Ahmad Assad) to the Brynt 39Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 19
OWN 34
0
7.9%
Gage Moloney pass incomplete to Derick Eugene, broken up by Jamal PottsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 19TD9 plays · 68 yds · 9:2545% → 30%
Q4 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
45.1%
Kris Mitchell 17 Yd pass from Grayson James (Chase Gabriel Kick)Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+5
16.6%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Josiah Miamen, broken up by Colin Elliott for a 1ST down BRYANT Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Colin Elliott) to the FlaIn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
19.2%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Randall St. Felix for a 1ST down BRYANT Penalty, roughing passer (Dylan Perez) to the Brynt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
22.6%
Grayson James pass complete to Josiah Miamen for 12 yds to the Brynt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 20TD8 plays · 73 yds · 7:1181% → 94%
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-15
18.9%
Zevi Eckhaus pass intercepted for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Hezekiah Masses) to the FlaIn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+20
7.1%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Matthew Prochaska for 20 yds to the FlaIn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
6.2%
Zevi Eckhaus pass incomplete to Landon Ruggieri for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Defensive holding (Adrian Cole) to the FlaIn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 21TD5 plays · 60 yds · 4:0827% → 21%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
19.2%
Grayson James pass complete to Lexington Joseph for 11 yds to the Brynt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BRYDrive 22TD10 plays · 75 yds · 1:0092% → 94%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
7.2%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Matthew Prochaska for 5 yds to the Brynt 30Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
6.7%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to David Zorrilla for 6 yds to the FlaIn 48Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+5
6.4%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to David Zorrilla for 5 yds to the FlaIn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+31
6.2%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Matthew Prochaska for 31 yds to the FlaIn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
6.0%
Zevi Eckhaus pass complete to Ishod Byarm for 7 yds to the FlaIn 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 23FG7 plays · 63 yds · 0:2314% → 14%
Q4 0:23
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+15
14.1%
Grayson James pass incomplete to Ross Fournet for a 1ST down BRYANT Penalty, personal foul (Chris Yates) to the FlaIn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
19.4%
Grayson James pass complete to Josiah Miamen for 18 yds to the Brynt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+13
22.2%
Grayson James pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 13 yds to the Brynt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+85.7
TD · OT 0:00
Anthony Frederick 25 Yd pass from Zevi Eckhaus (Ethan Gettman Kick)
-49
TD · Q1 6:15
Ishod Byarm 2 Yd Run (Ethan Gettman PAT blocked)
+46.7