Try the model
APSU

Austin Peay 27 at Western Kentucky 38

WKU
2022 · Week 1 · Aug 27, 2022 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadAPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreAPSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:17 · Matt Rigney punt for 39 yds , Upton Stout returns for 12 yds to the WKent 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 67Pregame prior+37.2Home team on offense+1.3Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Blowout margin+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:27: Upton Stout 34 Yd Interception Return (Brayden Narveson Kick) — WKU win probability +3.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: APSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:18: Mike DiLiello 1 Yd Run (Maddux Trujillo Kick) — APSU win probability +4.0 pts (now 10%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 12:56: Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 25 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +10.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:34: Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 48 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +4.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:09: Drae McCray 24 Yd pass from Mike DiLiello (Maddux Trujillo Kick) — APSU win probability +9.2 pts (now 13%) (top driver: APSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8APSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 13:24WKU 4th & 8 at WKU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:38WKU 4th & 5 at APSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    96.8%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:58APSU 4th & 13 at WKU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:35WKU 4th & 7 at WKU 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:32APSU 4th & 5 at APSU 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:46WKU 4th & 23 at WKU 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:17APSU 4th & 13 at WKU 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    7.7%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:33WKU 4th & 1 at WKU 28, up 4
    Close callPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:22APSU 4th & 1 at WKU 14, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    5.5%−0.4
    84% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:13APSU 4th & 2 at APSU 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:08WKU 4th & 7 at WKU 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:12APSU 4th & 12 at WKU 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    11.8%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:44WKU 4th & 6 at WKU 29, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:44APSU 4th & 1 at APSU 31, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.3%−1.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:16APSU 4th & 19 at APSU 24, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−5.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:58APSU 4th & 7 at APSU 38, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:18WKU 4th & 3 at APSU 5, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.9%−0.7
    92% to make
    Punt
    89.6%−5.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5APSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 10:39WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:35APSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:16WKU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:27WKU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:18APSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:56WKU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:34WKU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:09APSU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.6%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WKUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:3698% → 97%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 6 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+11
97.6%
Jakairi Moses run for 11 yds to the WKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
97.6%
Jakairi Moses run for 2 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
97.6%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
97.6%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:24
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
97.4%
Tom Ellard punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 2INT
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:463% → 3%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-6
97.4%
Mike Diliello pass complete to Kam Thomas for a loss of 6 yards to the APeay 12Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 16
OWN 12
+3
97.4%
CJ Evans Jr. run for 3 yds to the APeay 15Similar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 13
OWN 15
0
97.3%
Mike Diliello pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 1:5997% → 97%
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
97.3%
Daewood Davis run for 15 yds to the APeay 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
97.3%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
97.3%
Jakairi Moses run for 5 yds to the APeay 31Similar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 5
OPP 31
0
97.3%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:38
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+15
97.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 15 yds to the APeay 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
97.3%
Jakairi Moses run for no gain to the APeay 16Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
97.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 16 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 4FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 4:413% → 4%
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.1%
CJ Evans Jr. run for 3 yds to the APeay 28Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
97.1%
Mike Diliello run for 3 yds to the APeay 31Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+17
97.1%
Drae McCray run for 17 yds to the APeay 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
97.1%
Mike Diliello pass complete to Drae McCray for 8 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+8
97.1%
Mike Diliello pass complete to Trey Goodman for 8 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
97.1%
Mike Diliello run for 7 yds to the WKent 29Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+1
97.1%
Josh Samuel run for 1 yd to the WKent 28Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+7
97.1%
Mike Diliello run for 7 yds to the WKent 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
97.1%
Josh Samuel run for 4 yds to the WKent 17Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 6
OPP 17
0
97.1%
AUSTINPEAY Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Mike Diliello) to the WKent 28Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 17
OPP 28
+4
97.1%
Mike Diliello pass complete to Josh Samuel for 4 yds to the WKent 24Similar
Q1 5:58
4TH & 13
OPP 24
+41
96.4%
Maddux Trujillo 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2396% → 96%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
96.4%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 28Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 12
OWN 28
0
96.3%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+5
96.3%
REED, Austin pass to the right complete for 10 yards to CORLEY, Malachi caught at the WKU38 and advanced to the WKU38 (SMITH, Devin), out of bounds. PENALTY APS Offsides enforced 5 yards from the WKU28 to the WKU33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
96.3%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:35
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
96.0%
Tom Ellard punt for 50 yds, downed at the APeay 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 3:004% → 6%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+20
96.2%
Mike Diliello run for 20 yds to the APeay 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
96.1%
Mike Diliello pass complete to Drae McCray for 7 yds to the APeay 44Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 3
OWN 44
0
96.1%
Josh Samuel run for no gain to the APeay 44Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+4
96.1%
Josh Samuel run for 4 yds to the APeay 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
96.0%
Josh Samuel run for 7 yds to the WKent 45Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+1
96.0%
Josh Samuel run for 1 yd to the WKent 44Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+44
94.5%
Drae McCray 44 Yd pass from Mike DiLiello (Maddux Trujillo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1995% → 95%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.8%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 4 yds to the WKent 29Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
94.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 4 yds to the WKent 33Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
94.8%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 6 yds to the WKent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
94.4%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 3 yds to the WKent 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
94.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for no gain to the WKent 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+28
94.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 28 yds to the APeay 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+19
94.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Davion Ervin-Poindexter for 19 yds to the APeay 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
95.1%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 11 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:395% → 5%
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
94.8%
Mike Diliello run for 2 yds to the APeay 24Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
94.8%
Mike Diliello pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+3
94.9%
Mike Diliello pass complete to Josh Samuel for 3 yds to the APeay 27Similar
Q2 11:32
4TH & 5
OWN 27
+19
94.7%
Matt Rigney punt for 43 yds , Upton Stout returns for 19 yds to the WKent 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 1:4695% → 94%
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
94.6%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-15
94.5%
ROBICHAUX, Kye rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the APS46 (RUDOLPH, Joshua;CASELBERRY, Ethan). PENALTY WKU Tripping on GOODE, Mark enforced 15 yards from the WKU49 to the WKU34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 25
OWN 34
-8
94.3%
Jakairi Moses run for a loss of 8 yards to the WKent 26Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 33
OWN 26
+10
94.1%
Kye Robichaux run for 10 yds to the WKent 36Similar
Q2 9:46
4TH & 23
OWN 36
0
93.5%
Tom Ellard punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 3:296% → 7%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
93.6%
James Burns run for no gain to the APeay 43Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
93.7%
Mike Diliello run for 8 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+6
93.5%
CJ Evans Jr. run for 6 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
93.4%
Mike Diliello sacked by JaQues Evans for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 44Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 11
OPP 44
0
92.6%
Mike Diliello pass complete to Drae McCray for no gain to the WKent 44Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 11
OPP 44
-2
92.5%
Mike Diliello sacked by Lorenzo Hernandez and JaQues Evans for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 46Similar
Q2 6:17
4TH & 13
OPP 46
+12
93.0%
Matt Rigney punt for 39 yds , Upton Stout returns for 12 yds to the WKent 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4493% → 92%
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
93.0%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the WKent 24Similar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+3
93.0%
Austin Reed pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 3 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+1
92.8%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the WKent 28Similar
Q2 4:33
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
91.9%
Tom Ellard punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Kam Thomas at the APeay 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 12INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-34
94.9%
Upton Stout 34 Yd Interception Return (Brayden Narveson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 13TD
13 plays · 60 yds · 4:045% → 10%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
94.8%
Josh Samuel run for 5 yds to the APeay 45Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+2
94.6%
Josh Samuel run for 2 yds to the APeay 47Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+5
94.6%
Mike Diliello run for 5 yds to the WKent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
94.5%
Josh Samuel run for 1 yd to the WKent 47Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+24
94.6%
Josh Samuel run for 24 yds to the WKent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
94.2%
Josh Samuel run for 2 yds to the WKent 21Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+7
94.1%
Mike Diliello run for 7 yds to the WKent 14Similar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 1
OPP 14
0
94.4%
Josh Samuel run for no gain to the WKent 14Similar
Q2 4:22
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+1
94.6%
Mike Diliello run for 1 yd to the WKent 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
94.1%
DILIELLO, Mike pass to the right incomplete intended for MCCRAY, Drae broken up by BAKER, Desmyn at the WKU0. PENALTY WKU Pass Interference on BAKER, Desmyn enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the WKU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
93.6%
Josh Samuel run for 1 yd to the WKent 1Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.6%
Mike DiLiello 1 Yd Run (Maddux Trujillo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.0%
Jakairi Moses run for 6 yds to the WKent 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4710% → 10%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.3%
CJ Evans Jr. run for 3 yds to the APeay 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
90.1%
CJ Evans Jr. run for 2 yds to the APeay 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
90.4%
Mike Diliello pass complete to Trey Goodman for 3 yds to the APeay 33Similar
Q3 13:13
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
89.7%
Matt Rigney punt for 45 yds, downed at the WKent 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0590% → 88%
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
89.7%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
89.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 3 yds to the WKent 25Similar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
89.1%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:08
4TH & 7
OWN 25
+33
88.1%
Tom Ellard punt for 49 yds , Kam Thomas returns for 33 yds to the WKent 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 17FG
9 plays · 9 yds · 3:5613% → 14%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
87.3%
Mike Diliello pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
87.3%
EVANS, CJ rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the WKU40 (HAILASSIE, Kahlef). PENALTY WKU Offsides on EVANS, JaQues enforced 5 yards from the WKU41 to the WKU36 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+4
87.1%
CJ Evans Jr. run for 4 yds to the WKent 32Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+2
87.2%
Josh Samuel run for 2 yds to the WKent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
86.7%
Mike Diliello pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+2
86.8%
Mike Diliello run for 2 yds to the WKent 28Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 8
OPP 28
-10
87.4%
DILIELLO, Mike pass to the right incomplete intended for BURNS, James broken up by HAILASSIE, Kahlef at the WKU24; QB hurried by THOMPSON, Terrion. PENALTY APS Holding on WRIGHT, Isaiah enforced 10 yards from the WKU28 to the WKU38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 18
OPP 38
+6
88.7%
Mike Diliello pass complete to James Burns for 6 yds to the WKent 32Similar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 12
OPP 32
+49
86.1%
Maddux Trujillo 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:2886% → 83%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.0%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 1 yd to the WKent 26Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
85.9%
REED, Austin pass to the right complete for 3 yards to MATHISON, Michael caught at the WKU28 and advanced to the WKU29 (CASELBERRY, Ethan). PENALTY Before the snap, APS Illegal Substitution enforced 0 yards from the WKU30 to the WKU30. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
86.3%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 4 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
86.3%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for no gain to the WKent 34Similar
Q3 8:12
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
85.4%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the WKent 29Similar
Q3 5:44
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+61
83.0%
Tom Ellard punt for 61 yds , Kam Thomas returns for a loss of 1 yard to the APeay 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 5:2816% → 18%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+13
84.3%
Josh Samuel run for 13 yds to the APeay 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
83.9%
Mike Diliello pass complete to James Burns for 6 yds to the APeay 28Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+2
83.3%
Josh Samuel run for 2 yds to the APeay 30Similar
Q3 5:44
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+1
83.9%
Josh Samuel run for 1 yd to the APeay 31Similar
Q3 5:44
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+2
84.5%
Josh Samuel run for 2 yds to the APeay 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
83.4%
Josh Samuel run for no gain to the APeay 33Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-10
83.7%
AUSTINPEAY Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the APeay 23Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 20
OWN 23
+7
84.3%
CJ Evans Jr. run for 7 yds to the APeay 30Similar
Q3 5:44
3RD & 13
OWN 30
-6
85.0%
Mike Diliello sacked by Kahlef Hailassie for a loss of 6 yards to the APeay 24Similar
Q3 0:16
4TH & 19
OWN 24
0
81.6%
Matt Rigney punt for 47 yds , Craig Burt Jr. returns for no gain to the WKent 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 2:2080% → 94%
Q3 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
80.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 10 yds to the WKent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
81.0%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the WKent 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+6
81.5%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 6 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+6
81.7%
Austin Reed run for 6 yds to the APeay 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
82.8%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 7 yds to the APeay 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+15
82.9%
REED, Austin pass to the left incomplete intended for CORLEY, Malachi thrown to the APS5. PENALTY APS Pass Interference on RUFFIN, Kam enforced 15 yards to the APS25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
83.6%
Kye Robichaux run for no gain to the APeay 25Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
93.6%
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 25 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 21FUMBLE
4 plays · 26 yds · 0:519% → 11%
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
91.1%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Personal Foul (Darius Shipp) to the WKent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
89.2%
CJ Evans Jr. run for 2 yds to the WKent 42Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
89.2%
Mike Diliello pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 8
OPP 42
-7
89.3%
Mike Diliello run for a loss of 7 yards to the WKent 49 Mike Diliello fumbled, recovered by WKent Aaron KeySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 22TD
3 plays · 51 yds · 0:3193% → 97%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
93.3%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
93.2%
Jakairi Moses run for 3 yds to the APeay 48Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+48
97.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 48 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:364% → 4%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
95.8%
Josh Samuel run for 5 yds to the APeay 40Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-5
95.8%
Mike Diliello sacked by Terrion Thompson for a loss of 5 yards to the APeay 35Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+3
96.2%
Mike Diliello pass complete to Trey Goodman for 3 yds to the APeay 38Similar
Q4 9:58
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
96.5%
Matt Rigney punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Craig Burt Jr. at the WKent 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 24INT
3 plays · 33 yds · 0:5397% → 98%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
97.3%
Jakairi Moses run for 3 yds to the WKent 30Similar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+30
97.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 30 yds to the APeay 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
97.5%
Austin Reed pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APSUDrive 25TD
3 plays · 85 yds · 0:563% → 13%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
96.6%
Mike Diliello pass complete to Drae McCray for 7 yds to the APeay 22Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+15
96.3%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Personal Foul (Tre Shaw) to the WKent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
87.1%
Drae McCray 24 Yd pass from Mike DiLiello (Maddux Trujillo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 26FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 4:5193% → 96%
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
92.9%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 9 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
93.1%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 2 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
93.2%
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 19 yds to the APeay 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
93.8%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+18
93.7%
Austin Reed pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 18 yds to the APeay 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
93.8%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
93.8%
Austin Reed pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
93.3%
REED, Austin pass up the middle incomplete intended for HALL, Jaylen broken up by RUFFIN, Kam at the APS0. PENALTY APS Pass Interference on RUFFIN, Kam enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the APS12 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
93.8%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for a loss of 1 yard to the APeay 13Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+8
95.3%
Austin Reed pass complete to Michael Mathison for 8 yds to the APeay 5Similar
Q4 4:03
3RD & 3
OPP 5
0
95.9%
Austin Reed run for no gain to the APeay 5Similar
Q4 3:18
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+23
96.3%
Brayden Narveson 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 27END OF GAME
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:3097% → 98%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
96.8%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 3 yds to the APeay 24Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+2
97.2%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 2 yds to the APeay 22Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+9
97.1%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 9 yds to the APeay 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
97.2%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 4 yds to the APeay 9Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+5
97.6%
Davion Ervin-Poindexter run for 5 yds to the APeay 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:56
Austin Reed pass complete to Malachi Corley for 25 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)
+10.1
TD · Q4 8:09
Drae McCray 24 Yd pass from Mike DiLiello (Maddux Trujillo Kick)
-9.2
TD · Q4 11:34
Austin Reed pass complete to Daewood Davis for 48 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)
+4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com