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UL

Louisiana 41 at Texas State 13

TXST
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2022 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:41 · Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 19Home team on offense+0.2Score differential+0.0Pregame prior−13.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:24: Dre'lyn Washington run for 8 yds for a TD, (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +11.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Kenneth Almendares 27 yd FG GOOD — UL win probability +7.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:19: Chris Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +10.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:23: Lincoln Pare run for 64 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +7.6 pts (now 20%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:08: Chandler Fields pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 3 yds for a TD, (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +6.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 7 of 8UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:01TXST 4th & 10 at UL 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    39.2%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:30UL 4th & 13 at UL 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:41TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:35UL 4th & 4 at TXST 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    57.4%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    55.6%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:27UL 4th & 1 at TXST 1, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    57.8%−1.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    54.1%−5.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:00TXST 4th & 23 at UL 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−1.9
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    36.7%−4.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:38UL 4th & 15 at TXST 16, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−1.5
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    51.2%−5.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:47TXST 4th & 10 at UL 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:00TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:50UL 4th & 1 at UL 27, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%−2.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:40TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:00TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:06TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 34, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 5:35UL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:24UL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:19UL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:23TXST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:08UL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:58UL Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1FG
9 plays · 45 yds · 2:5936% → 37%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
35.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
35.6%
Donnovan Moorer run for no gain to the TexSt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+42
35.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 42 yds to the TEXSTATE 20 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Bralen Trahan) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
35.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+2
35.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 18Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+5
35.6%
PENALTY TXST False Start (Hergel,Kyle) 5 yards from LA 18 to LA 23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 23
+3
35.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 3 yds to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q1 12:01
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+38
37.1%
Seth Keller 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2463% → 62%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
37.1%
Chris Smith run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-6
37.1%
Chandler Fields sacked by Nelson Mbanasor for a loss of 6 yards to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 13
OWN 23
0
37.3%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Michael JeffersonSimilar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 13
OWN 23
0
38.2%
Rhys Byrns punt for 57 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4938% → 38%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
37.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
37.7%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
37.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Donnovan MoorerSimilar
Q1 9:41
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
37.7%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaLaf 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 4:0662% → 63%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
38.0%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
37.8%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Dre'lyn Washington for 10 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
37.6%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 11 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
37.6%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 13 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
37.4%
Chris Smith run for no gain to the TexSt 24Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+5
37.5%
Chris Smith run for 5 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 15
OPP 29
+11
38.0%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Chris Smith for 11 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+18
37.1%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Chris Smith for 18 yds for a TD, (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5FUMBLE
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:1937% → 38%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
37.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
37.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Donnovan MoorerSimilar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+12
36.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 12 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
37.2%
Damarius Good run for 4 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+7
37.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 7 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
37.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
38.0%
Damarius Good run for 2 yds to the TexSt 46 Damarius Good fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Zi'Yon Hill-GreenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6DOWNS
7 plays · 43 yds · 2:4464% → 63%
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
36.4%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 13 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
36.1%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Errol Rogers Jr.Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+24
36.1%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Lance Legendre for 24 yds to the TexSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
35.9%
Chandler Fields run for 1 yd to the TexSt 8Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
35.9%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Lance Legendre for 6 yds to the TexSt 2Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
36.4%
Zylan Perry run for 1 yd to the TexSt 1Similar
Q1 0:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+2
37.2%
Zylan Perry run for 2 yds to the TexSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7FG
12 plays · 74 yds · 5:0037% → 41%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+8
37.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 8 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 11
+56
37.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 56 yds to the LaLaf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
40.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Titus LyonsSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
40.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+5
39.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
40.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 13 yds to the LaLaf 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
40.1%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the LaLaf 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-8
40.1%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Sonny Hazard for a loss of 8 yards to the LaLaf 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+10
38.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hatcher,Layne rush right for 3 yards gain to the LA 12, out of bounds at LA 12 PENALTY TXST Holding (West,Richard) 10 yards from LA 15 to LA 25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 25
+2
38.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q2 10:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 23
+40
40.5%
Seth Keller 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8FG
15 plays · 59 yds · 4:1560% → 62%
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
39.9%
Chris Smith run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
38.8%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Michael JeffersonSimilar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-10
39.7%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 5 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, (-15 Yards) to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
38.0%
Chris Smith run for 4 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+21
37.8%
Chandler Fields run for 21 yds to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
36.9%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Dre'lyn WashingtonSimilar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+6
37.3%
Chandler Fields run for 6 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+6
37.7%
Chris Smith run for 6 yds to the TexSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 15
OPP 16
0
37.5%
Chris Smith run for no gain to the TexSt 16Similar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 15
OPP 16
0
38.8%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Johnny LumpkinSimilar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
36.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Fields,Chandler pass incomplete short left to LeBlanc,Peter QB hurried by Harris,London PENALTY LA Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Thomas,Nathan) 5 yards from TXST11 to TXST16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 15
OPP 16
0
37.2%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Peter LeBlancSimilar
Q2 5:38
4TH & 15
OPP 16
+33
38.2%
Kenneth Almendares 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9INT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:1037% → 37%
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
36.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 6 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+4
36.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
36.9%
Layne Hatcher pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10TD
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4965% → 76%
Q2 4:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-10
35.2%
PENALTY LA Illegal Block in Back (Narcisse,Mason) 10 yards from TXST01 to TXST11. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+3
35.3%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 3 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
24.3%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 8 yds for a TD, (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 24 yds · 2:3127% → 25%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
26.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 8 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+1
27.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TexSt 37Similar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+5
27.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
27.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
27.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Charles BrownSimilar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+6
25.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 6 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
27.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
26.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Chandler SpeightsSimilar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
26.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 10
OPP 48
+29
25.3%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 yds , Eric Garror returns for 29 yds to the LaLaf 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12FG
7 plays · 51 yds · 0:4778% → 87%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
21.7%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 16 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
21.3%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 12 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
21.1%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Errol Rogers Jr.Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+16
21.1%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 16 yds to the TexSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
20.9%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Chris Smith for 7 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+27
12.7%
Kenneth Almendares 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 2:3379% → 92%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
20.7%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Michael JeffersonSimilar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+12
21.0%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 12 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
20.4%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 14 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
20.2%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 5 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
20.1%
Chandler Fields pass incomplete to Dontae FlemingSimilar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+6
20.3%
Chandler Fields run for 6 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+23
18.4%
Chris Smith run for 23 yds to the TexSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
8.3%
Chris Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5614% → 20%
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
13.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
14.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
14.0%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the TexSt 36Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+64
19.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 64 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15INT
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:4082% → 84%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
18.0%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Neal Johnson for 10 yds to the LaLaf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
15.6%
Chandler Fields pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:3913% → 11%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
12.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+2
12.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+10
12.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Drue Jackson for 10 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
12.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Donnovan MoorerSimilar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+11
12.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 11 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 15
OWN 34
0
13.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Chandler Speights for no gain to the TexSt 34Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+9
13.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Chandler Speights for 9 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
13.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Lincoln PareSimilar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
10.7%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Eric Garror at the LaLaf 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1087% → 87%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
13.4%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 21Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+6
13.4%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 1
OWN 27
0
13.3%
Dre'lyn Washington run for no gain to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q3 3:50
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
12.6%
Rhys Byrns punt for 49 yds , Rontavius Groves returns for no gain to the TexSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 3:108% → 8%
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
8.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 7 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+4
8.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
8.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+3
8.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+6
8.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Damarius Good for 6 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q3 0:40
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+15
7.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt blocked by Dalen Cambre blocked by Dalen CambreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 2:5291% → 98%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
9.4%
Chris Smith run for no gain to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+8
9.5%
Chris Smith run for 8 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+9
9.3%
Chris Smith run for 9 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
9.2%
Chris Smith run for 13 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
8.7%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 11 yds to the TexSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
8.6%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 12 yds to the TexSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
1.8%
Chandler Fields pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 3 yds for a TD, (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:021% → 1%
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
1.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TexSt 15Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
1.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Titus LyonsSimilar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 9
OWN 15
+15
1.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 15 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
1.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+4
1.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 4 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 4
OWN 36
-4
1.2%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Andre Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 32Similar
Q4 9:00
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
0.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 42 yds , Eric Garror returns for no gain to the LaLaf 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 6:0299% → 100%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
1.3%
Zylan Perry run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 14Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 12
OWN 14
+14
1.3%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Lance Legendre for 14 yds to the LaLaf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
1.3%
Zeon Chriss pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+8
1.3%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Pearse Migl for 8 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+10
1.2%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 10 yds to the LaLaf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
1.2%
Zylan Perry run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 45Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+15
1.2%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to John Stephens Jr. for 15 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
1.1%
Zylan Perry run for 2 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+5
1.1%
Zeon Chriss run for 5 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+37
0.1%
Zeon Chriss pass complete to Lance Legendre for 37 yds for a TD, (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:520% → 0%
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.0%
Emmanuel Abdallah run for 5 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
0.0%
Emmanuel Abdallah run for 2 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
0.0%
Emmanuel Abdallah run for 2 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
0.0%
Emmanuel Abdallah run for 1 yd to the TexSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 1:06100% → 100%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-3
0.1%
Kneel down by Louisiana at TXST36 for loss of 3 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 36
-1
0.1%
Kneel down by Louisiana at TXST37 for loss of 1 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:24
Dre'lyn Washington run for 8 yds for a TD, (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
-11
TD · Q3 12:19
Chris Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
-10.1
TD · Q3 10:23
Lincoln Pare run for 64 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)
+7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com