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USM

Southern Miss 20 at UL Monroe 10

ULM
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2022 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:00 · Devyn McCormick punt for 46 yds, downed at the SoMis 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 53Home team on offense−1.0Pregame prior−7.9Score differential−0.9Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:26: Chandler Rogers pass complete to Andrew Henry for 23 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK) — ULM win probability +6.3 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. FG · Q3 5:24: Calum Sutherland 37 yd FG GOOD — ULM win probability +7.0 pts (now 52%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:00: Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the LaMon 26 — USM win probability +6.4 pts (now 58%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:30: Briggs Bourgeois 24 yd FG GOOD — USM win probability +7.1 pts (now 63%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:32: Frank Gore Jr. run for 33 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK) — USM win probability +24.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 9 of 10USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 10:17ULM 4th & 8 at ULM 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:41USM 4th & 2 at ULM 3, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.9%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    55.6%−2.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:34ULM 4th & 1 at USM 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.7%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:28USM 4th & 18 at USM 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−2.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:41ULM 4th & 17 at ULM 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−2.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:56USM 4th & 2 at USM 45, up 3
    Close callPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:00ULM 4th & 3 at ULM 40, down 3
    Close callPunted · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:02ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:36USM 4th & 2 at ULM 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    56.2%−2.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    54.7%−3.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:24ULM 4th & 8 at USM 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−1.7
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.6%
    77% to make
    Punt
    35.4%−11.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:36USM 4th & 10 at USM 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−2.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:30ULM 4th & 11 at ULM 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−2.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:30USM 4th & 7 at ULM 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−18.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:41ULM 4th & 20 at ULM 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−4.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:19ULM 4th & 15 at USM 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:36USM 4th & 4 at USM 36, up 10
    Close callPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:36ULM 4th & 10 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1USM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:41USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:26ULM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 7:32USM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:1963% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
36.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+29
36.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 29 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
36.7%
run for 6 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+4
36.7%
Janari Dean run for 4 yds to the LaMon 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
36.6%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 29 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:1837% → 37%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
36.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Malik Jackson for no gain to the LaMon 24Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+3
36.8%
Malik Jackson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 7
OWN 27
-1
36.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jevin Frett for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 26Similar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 8
OWN 26
+2
36.5%
Devyn McCormick punt for 48 yds , Tiaquelin Mims returns for 2 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3FG
12 plays · 69 yds · 5:3663% → 64%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
36.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 11 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
36.4%
Chandler Pittman run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 38Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+2
36.5%
run for 2 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
36.6%
UL MONROE Penalty, Offsides (Kenard Snyder) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
36.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 9 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 1
OPP 27
-10
36.2%
GORE, Frank rush up the middle for a gain of 8 yards to the ULM19 (JOHNSON, Jabari). PENALTY USM Holding on SCOTT, Gerquan enforced 10 yards from the ULM27 to the ULM37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+3
36.3%
Janari Dean run for 3 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+23
36.4%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 23 yds to the LaMon 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
36.2%
Janari Dean run for 5 yds to the LaMon 6Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+3
36.2%
Trey Lowe run for 3 yds to the LaMon 3Similar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 2
OPP 3
0
36.3%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:41
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+20
35.7%
Briggs Bourgeois 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4TD
14 plays · 73 yds · 6:0836% → 42%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
36.2%
Andrew Henry run for 5 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+2
36.4%
Andrew Henry run for 2 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+8
36.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Nolan Quinlan for 8 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
36.7%
Andrew Henry run for no gain to the LaMon 42Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
36.6%
ROGERS, Chandler pass to the right complete for 5 yards to LUKE, Alred to the ULM47, out of bounds. PENALTY USM Offsides on HABAS, Averie enforced 5 yards from the ULM42 to the ULM47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 5
OWN 47
-2
36.9%
Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 45Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+6
36.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jevin Frett for 6 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q1 4:34
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+17
36.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Zach Rasmussen for 17 yds to the SoMis 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
36.0%
Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+13
35.7%
Andrew Henry run for 13 yds to the SoMis 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
36.0%
Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 23Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 12
OPP 23
0
36.1%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 12
OPP 23
+23
42.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Andrew Henry for 23 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:5860% → 58%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.3%
Chandler Pittman run for no gain to the SoMis 25Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
40.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-10
40.8%
Trey Lowe sacked by Quincy Ledet Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the SoMis 17Similar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
42.1%
Mason Hunt punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:4743% → 41%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
43.3%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
43.1%
Malik Jackson run for no gain to the LaMon 48Similar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-7
41.6%
Chandler Rogers sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the LaMon 41Similar
Q2 9:41
4TH & 17
OWN 41
+15
40.7%
Devyn McCormick punt for 49 yds , Tiaquelin Mims returns for 15 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:4559% → 60%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
40.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 12 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
40.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 38Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+5
39.9%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Janari Dean for 5 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+2
39.7%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 2 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 6:56
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
40.2%
Mason Hunt punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:5641% → 41%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
41.2%
Chandler Rogers run for 12 yds to the LaMon 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
41.6%
Alred Luke run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 32Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 11
OWN 32
0
41.2%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 11
OWN 32
+8
40.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Malik Jackson for 8 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q2 5:00
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
41.6%
Devyn McCormick punt for 46 yds, downed at the SoMis 14Similar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
40.9%
GORE, Frank rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the USM19, out of bounds. PENALTY USM Holding on RAMSEY, Bryce enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the USM14 to the USM7 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9END OF HALF
19 plays · 85 yds · 5:0058% → 65%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 17
OWN 7
+8
41.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 8 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+11
41.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 11 yds to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
40.7%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SoMis 20Similar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 16
OWN 20
+4
41.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+8
40.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 8 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+3
40.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+5
40.7%
UL MONROE Penalty, Offsides (Tralon Thomas) to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
37.1%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+16
37.7%
Janari Dean run for 16 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
36.2%
LOWE III, Trey pass to the right incomplete intended for MAY, Jalen thrown to the ULM40; QB hurried by SNYDER, Kenard and THOMAS, Caleb. PENALTY USM Holding on MAYS, Briason enforced 10 yards from the ULM44 to the USM46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 20
OWN 46
+14
39.1%
Antavious Willis run for 14 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+15
36.0%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 15 yds to the LaMon 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
35.7%
Trey Lowe run for 11 yds to the LaMon 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
35.4%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Cole Cavallo for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 16Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+12
35.8%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 12 yds to the LaMon 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
35.3%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 3 yds to the LaMon 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:5842% → 40%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
41.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+3
41.1%
Andrew Henry run for 3 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+7
39.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Nolan Quinlan for 7 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q3 13:02
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
39.9%
Devyn McCormick punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the SoMis 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11DOWNS
7 plays · 36 yds · 3:2661% → 61%
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
39.1%
Trey Lowe run for 2 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+15
39.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 15 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
37.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 11 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
37.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 42Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+9
37.5%
Janari Dean run for 9 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q3 13:02
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+1
37.3%
Janari Dean run for 1 yd to the LaMon 32Similar
Q3 9:36
4TH & 2
OPP 32
0
38.8%
Janari Dean run for no gain to the LaMon 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 4:1242% → 52%
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
42.0%
Malik Jackson run for 1 yd to the LaMon 33Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+34
41.8%
Chandler Rogers run for 34 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
47.2%
Malik Jackson run for 5 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+4
47.2%
Malik Jackson run for 4 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q3 9:36
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+3
45.4%
Malik Jackson run for 3 yds to the SoMis 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
47.2%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+3
47.2%
Malik Jackson run for 3 yds to the SoMis 18Similar
Q3 9:36
3RD & 7
OPP 18
-1
45.4%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Quentin Bivens for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 19Similar
Q3 5:24
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+37
52.4%
Calum Sutherland 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:4853% → 51%
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
47.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 11 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
46.2%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:24
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
46.9%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
48.4%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:36
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
49.5%
Mason Hunt punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Boogie Knight at the LaMon 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 4:0651% → 51%
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
50.9%
Andrew Henry run for 11 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
52.3%
Andrew Henry run for 1 yd to the LaMon 37Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+3
51.9%
Andrew Henry run for 3 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+8
51.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Zach Rasmussen for 8 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
54.8%
Andrew Henry run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 8
50
+2
55.1%
Malik Jackson run for 2 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 6
OPP 48
-5
54.4%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Averie Habas for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 47Similar
Q3 0:30
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
50.5%
Devyn McCormick punt for 42 yds, downed at the SoMis 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15FG
8 plays · 82 yds · 3:0051% → 63%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+59
48.7%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Latreal Jones for 59 yds to the LaMon 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
42.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the LaMon 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+11
41.8%
run for 11 yds to the LaMon 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
41.8%
Frank Gore Jr. pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 13 yds to the LaMon 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
41.8%
Janari Dean run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
41.8%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 7 Frank Gore Jr. fumbled, recovered by SoMis Frank Gore Jr.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
43.6%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
36.6%
Briggs Bourgeois 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 4:4142% → 36%
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
41.6%
Chandler Rogers run for 8 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 2
OWN 40
-10
45.3%
HENRY, Andrew rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the ULM43 (NEWSOME, T.Q.;BIVENS, Quentin). PENALTY ULM Holding on FISHER, Elijah enforced 10 yards from the ULM40 to the ULM30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+9
40.7%
Chandler Rogers run for 9 yds to the LaMon 39Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+17
43.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 17 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
46.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 49Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+2
43.3%
Malik Jackson run for 2 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 13
OPP 47
-7
41.6%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Dominic Quewon and Daylen Gill for a loss of 7 yards to the LaMon 46Similar
Q4 7:41
4TH & 20
OWN 46
0
36.2%
punt blocked by Brendan Toles blocked by Brendan TolesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17TD
1 play · 33 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
11.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 33 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:0914% → 10%
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
14.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 8 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 2
OWN 32
0
15.1%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+8
14.2%
Chandler Rogers run for 8 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
15.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Will Derrick for 16 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
17.1%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-4
16.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Nolan Quinlan for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 48Similar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 14
OPP 48
-1
14.3%
Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 49Similar
Q4 4:19
4TH & 15
OPP 49
0
9.6%
Devyn McCormick punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 1:4389% → 94%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
10.6%
Janari Dean run for 9 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+1
10.4%
Janari Dean run for 1 yd to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
7.7%
run for no gain to the SoMis 30Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
7.0%
run for 5 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+1
6.4%
Trey Lowe run for 1 yd to the SoMis 36Similar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
6.1%
Mason Hunt punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Boogie Knight at the LaMon 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:004% → 3%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
3.9%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
3.7%
Chandler Rogers run for 3 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+17
3.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
50
0
4.4%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 10
50
0
4.0%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 10
50
0
3.8%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:36
4TH & 10
50
+1
3.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 1 yd to the SoMis 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 1:3696% → 96%
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
3.8%
[NHSG] Kneel down by LOWE III, Trey at USM48 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 11
OWN 48
0
3.9%
[NHSG] Kneel down by LOWE III, Trey at USM47 (team loss of 1).Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 47
0
3.9%
[NHSG] Kneel down by LOWE III, Trey at USM46 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:32
Frank Gore Jr. run for 33 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)
-24.3
FG · Q4 12:30
Briggs Bourgeois 24 yd FG GOOD
-7.1
FG · Q3 5:24
Calum Sutherland 37 yd FG GOOD
+7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com