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USA

South Alabama 27 at Southern Miss 20

USM
2022 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2022 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:44 · Mason Hunt punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the SAlab 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 73Pregame prior−7.2Home team on offense+0.5Garbage-time factor−0.6Score differential−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:51: Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 5 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +11.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:09: Jason Brownlee 29 Yd pass from Frank Gore Jr. (Briggs Bourgeois Kick) — USM win probability +20.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:31: Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 26 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +22.4 pts (now 65%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:53: Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 33 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +18.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:13: Briggs Bourgeois 36 yd FG GOOD — USM win probability +11.5 pts (now 18%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8USA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:16USA 4th & 9 at USM 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    66.1%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:39USM 4th & 11 at USM 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:53USA 4th & 10 at USA 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:10USM 4th & 2 at USM 34, up 4
    Close callPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:10USA 4th & 1 at USA 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    57.3%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:55USA 4th & 6 at USA 32, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.2%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    55.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:34USM 4th & 5 at USA 5, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    42.1%−4.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:05USM 4th & 19 at USM 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−3.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:44USM 4th & 6 at USM 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−2.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00USA 4th & 6 at USM 31, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.1%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    58.3%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:39USA 4th & 2 at USM 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    60.5%−1.7
    58% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−7.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:39USM 4th & 1 at USA 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    36.1%−4.9
    32% to make
    Punt
    36.8%−4.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:20USM 4th & 13 at USA 38, down 3
    Close callPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−1.0
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    39.1%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:15USA 4th & 11 at USA 9, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−2.9
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00USA 4th & 1 at USM 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    39.1%−3.4
    66% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−13.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:31USM 4th & 1 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.2%−5.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:58USM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:51USA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:09USM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:31USA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:53USA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1FG
7 plays · 66 yds · 2:4464% → 63%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
36.3%
Carter Bradley run for 3 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+64
36.3%
Braylon McReynolds run for 64 yds to the SoMis 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
36.3%
Braylon McReynolds run for 1 yd to the SoMis 7Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
36.8%
Braylon McReynolds run for 3 yds to the SoMis 4Similar
Q1 12:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
36.8%
Carter Bradley sacked by Kristin Booth and Santrell Latham for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 9Similar
Q1 12:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
37.0%
Diego Guajardo 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3737% → 37%
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
37.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 24Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
37.0%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 19Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+5
37.0%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 5 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
36.9%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:39
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+16
37.0%
Mason Hunt punt for 53 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 16 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3INT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:3763% → 62%
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
37.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 2 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+6
37.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 6 yds to the SAlab 47Similar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+10
37.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Omni Wells for 10 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
37.1%
Braylon McReynolds run for no gain to the SoMis 43Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
37.1%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+15
37.7%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Natrone Brooks) to the SoMis 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 4:0438% → 43%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
38.0%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Targeting on HYATT, Ricky enforced (15 Yards) to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
38.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 5
OPP 33
-1
39.0%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Chandler Pittman for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 34Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+11
38.7%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Latreal Jones for 11 yds to the SAlab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+11
39.0%
Chandler Pittman run for 11 yds to the SAlab 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
39.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the SAlab 7Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 5
OPP 7
0
39.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the SAlab 7Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+7
42.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 3:5858% → 56%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
42.3%
Braylon McReynolds run for 3 yds to the SAlab 12Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+6
42.3%
Braylon McReynolds run for 6 yds to the SAlab 18Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+18
42.4%
Marco Lee run for 18 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-9
41.6%
Carter Bradley sacked by Josh Ratcliff and Brodarius Lewis for a loss of 9 yards to the SAlab 27Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 19
OWN 27
0
42.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for no gain to the SAlab 27Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 19
OWN 27
+9
44.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Omni Wells for 9 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
44.5%
Jack Brooks punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4344% → 44%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
43.9%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Antavious Willis for 6 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+3
44.3%
run for 3 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 1
OWN 35
-1
44.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 34Similar
Q2 13:10
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
43.9%
Mason Hunt punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Braylon McReynolds at the SAlab 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7DOWNS
9 plays · 18 yds · 3:1556% → 53%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
44.5%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+2
44.7%
Omni Wells run for 2 yds to the SAlab 20Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+7
45.2%
Omni Wells run for 7 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q2 13:10
4TH & 1
OWN 27
+1
45.1%
Omni Wells run for 1 yd to the SAlab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
44.0%
Omni Wells run for 3 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+1
43.9%
Omni Wells run for 1 yd to the SAlab 32Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
44.4%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:55
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+4
46.8%
Todd Justice run for 4 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8FG
9 plays · 31 yds · 4:2149% → 55%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
49.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 10 yds to the SAlab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
49.4%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 15 yds to the SAlab 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-3
49.4%
Tiaquelin Mims run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 14Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 13
OPP 14
-1
49.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 15Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 14
OPP 15
0
47.7%
LOWE III, Trey pass to the right incomplete intended for BROWNLEE, Jason thrown to the USA0. PENALTY USA Holding on ROBINSON, Marquise enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the USA15 to the USA8 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
49.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the SAlab 5Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
49.4%
Kenyon Clay run for no gain to the SAlab 5Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
48.7%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
54.6%
Briggs Bourgeois 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 1:3447% → 62%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+29
53.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for 29 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+29
50.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 29 yds to the SoMis 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
49.7%
Marco Lee run for 1 yd to the SoMis 5Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
38.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 5 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 1:4646% → 44%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
45.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 22Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
45.5%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Chop Block (TEAM) to the SoMis 11Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 24
OWN 11
+4
45.7%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Chandler Pittman for 4 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+1
44.9%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 1 yd to the SoMis 16Similar
Q2 2:05
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
44.2%
Mason Hunt punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the SAlab 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11INT
3 plays · 44 yds · 0:5859% → 62%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+33
40.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for 33 yds to the SoMis 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
38.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 11 yds to the SoMis 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
37.8%
Carter Bradley pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:2347% → 45%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
46.8%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+4
47.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 6
OWN 23
0
45.7%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
45.0%
Mason Hunt punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the SAlab 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13FG
7 plays · 37 yds · 0:4457% → 63%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
43.5%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 15 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
41.4%
Desmond Trotter run for 18 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
38.5%
Desmond Trotter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
38.7%
Desmond Trotter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+4
40.3%
Desmond Trotter pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for 4 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+49
36.8%
Diego Guajardo 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14INT
3 plays · 22 yds · 1:1541% → 44%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
41.2%
Trey Lowe run for 3 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+19
41.5%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 19 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
44.2%
Trey Lowe pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15DOWNS
4 plays · 19 yds · 2:0663% → 60%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
37.0%
Carter Bradley run for 6 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+1
35.9%
Braylon McReynolds run for 1 yd to the SoMis 30Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+1
37.1%
Braylon McReynolds run for 1 yd to the SoMis 29Similar
Q3 11:39
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+11
39.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 11 yds Devin Voisin fumbled, recovered by SoMis Daylen GillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 44 yds · 4:1941% → 40%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+20
40.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 20 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
42.5%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Latreal Jones for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
50
-5
44.7%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, False Start (Matt Ryals) to the SoMis 45Similar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 15
OWN 45
0
42.0%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 15
OWN 45
0
41.5%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 15
OWN 45
+14
40.2%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 14 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q3 11:39
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+6
42.8%
Kenyon Clay run for 6 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
46.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 38Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 13
OPP 38
0
43.1%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 13
OPP 38
0
41.9%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:20
4TH & 13
OPP 38
0
40.1%
Mason Hunt punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the SAlab 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 2:0560% → 57%
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
39.7%
Braylon McReynolds run for 5 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 5
OWN 15
-2
39.8%
Braylon McReynolds run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 13Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 7
OWN 13
-4
41.3%
Carter Bradley run for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 9Similar
Q3 5:15
4TH & 11
OWN 9
0
42.8%
Jack Brooks punt for 56 yds, downed at the SoMis 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 4:0643% → 70%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
42.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
46.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
45.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
46.1%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Latreal Jones for 3 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+6
46.4%
run for 6 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+15
46.5%
LOWE III, Trey pass to the left incomplete intended for MIMS, Tiaquelin thrown to the USA30. PENALTY USA Pass Interference on ROBINSON, Marquise enforced 15 yards to the USA30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
48.6%
Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd to the SAlab 29Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+29
69.5%
Jason Brownlee 29 Yd pass from Frank Gore Jr. (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19TD
11 plays · 61 yds · 4:3040% → 65%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
59.6%
Braylon McReynolds run for 2 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
59.1%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+25
61.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 25 yds to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
55.7%
Carter Bradley run for 4 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+5
55.2%
Braylon McReynolds run for 5 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 25
0
57.0%
Marco Lee run for no gain to the SoMis 25Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+2
59.1%
Marco Lee run for 2 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
55.2%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Dontae Lucas) to the SoMis 28Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+2
57.1%
Marco Lee run for 2 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 26
0
56.9%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 13
OPP 26
+26
34.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 26 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20DOWNS
11 plays · 30 yds · 6:0041% → 38%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.0%
Chandler Pittman run for 5 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
41.8%
Trey Lowe run for no gain to the SoMis 30Similar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
40.1%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 11 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
44.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-5
44.7%
Trey Lowe sacked by Yam Banks for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 38Similar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+12
39.8%
Trey Lowe run for 12 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:31
4TH & 1
50
+1
43.2%
Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd to the SAlab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
46.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the SAlab 49Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
45.7%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+4
42.4%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 4 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q4 5:31
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
37.9%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Holding on MAYS, Briason ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 3:3875% → 95%
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
24.7%
Braylon McReynolds run for 2 yds to the SAlab 47Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+9
24.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 9 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
23.7%
Braylon McReynolds run for 2 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+7
23.7%
Braylon McReynolds run for 7 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q4 5:31
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
23.4%
Marco Lee run for 2 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
5.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 33 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 1:406% → 18%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
6.3%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 14 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
6.9%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
6.9%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+13
6.2%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 13 yds to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
7.8%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+18
7.6%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 18 yds to the SAlab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
9.9%
Trey Lowe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
9.7%
Trey Lowe pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 6 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+11
7.0%
Trey Lowe run for 11 yds to the SAlab 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-6
6.3%
Trey Lowe sacked by Brock Higdon for a loss of 6 yards to the SAlab 19Similar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 16
OPP 19
+36
17.8%
Briggs Bourgeois 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
4.2%
[NH] Kneel down by USA at USA47 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:31
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 26 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)
-22.4
TD · Q3 1:09
Jason Brownlee 29 Yd pass from Frank Gore Jr. (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)
+20.9
TD · Q4 1:53
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 33 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)
-18.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com