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TXST

Texas State 21 at South Alabama 38

USA
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2022 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:01 · Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 22 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 79Pregame prior+24.2Home team on offense+12.8Score differential+7.1Garbage-time factor+4.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:55: Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 2 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +5.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:02: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 4 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +6.8 pts (now 15%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:53: Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 41 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +7.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:52: Josh Berry run for 5 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +8.5 pts (now 14%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:26: Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 28 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +7.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 11 of 13TXST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:40TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:40USA 4th & 1 at TXST 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    85.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:40USA 4th & 3 at TXST 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    85.8%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    85.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 11:40USA 4th & 3 at TXST 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    85.8%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    85.8%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:57USA 4th & 11 at TXST 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    84.4%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:16TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 48, down 10
    Close callPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:48USA 4th & 12 at USA 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%−0.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:41TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:35USA 4th & 6 at USA 36, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 11:10TXST 4th & 16 at TXST 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−0.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 11:10USA 4th & 4 at TXST 37, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    84.2%−0.8
    40% to make
    Punt
    84.1%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q2 6:55USA 4th & 2 at TXST 2, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    84.0%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    80.7%−4.1
    average punt
  13. Q2 5:01TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%
    average punt
  14. Q2 5:01USA 4th & 3 at TXST 47, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    90.7%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q3 13:21TXST 4th & 15 at TXST 22, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−2.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  16. Q3 11:20USA 4th & 8 at USA 37, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:04USA 4th & 2 at USA 46, up 10
    Close callPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%−0.8
    average punt
  18. Q3 3:05TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 13, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:49USA 4th & 3 at TXST 41, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    87.3%−1.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−1.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:54TXST 4th & 3 at USA 3, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    2.4%−1.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−2.7
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:59USA 4th & 8 at TXST 43, up 10
    Close callPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    93.3%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%−0.2
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:48TXST 4th & 3 at USA 45, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−0.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−0.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:45TXST 4th & 11 at USA 30, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:17USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:55USA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:02TXST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:53USA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:52TXST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:26USA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:54TXST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.0%−0.7
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:48USA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:3788% → 87%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
87.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+10
87.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 10 yds to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
87.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 11 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
87.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 41 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:3213% → 13%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-6
87.3%
Layne Hatcher sacked by James Miller for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 9Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 16
OWN 9
0
87.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 16
OWN 9
+6
87.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jahmyl Jeter for 6 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
Q1 11:40
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
87.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 25 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for no gain to the SAlab 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3FG
19 plays · 41 yds · 5:4387% → 87%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
87.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
87.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Devin VoisinSimilar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+6
87.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 6 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q1 11:40
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+1
87.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
87.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 8 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+1
87.3%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the TexSt 41Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
87.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q1 11:40
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+25
87.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 25 yds to the TexSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
87.3%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
87.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jalen WayneSimilar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+4
87.3%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
87.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 8 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+1
87.3%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the TexSt 41Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
87.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q1 11:40
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+25
87.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 25 yds to the TexSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
87.3%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
87.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jalen WayneSimilar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+4
87.3%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q1 5:57
4TH & 11
OPP 17
+35
86.6%
Diego Guajardo 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:4114% → 14%
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
86.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Drue Jackson for 11 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
86.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Lincoln PareSimilar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
86.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 6 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+1
86.0%
Layne Hatcher run for 1 yd to the TexSt 48Similar
Q1 4:16
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
86.1%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the SAlab 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 4:2887% → 86%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 14
OWN 4
0
86.6%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jalen WayneSimilar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 14
OWN 4
+5
86.6%
Marco Lee run for 5 yds to the SAlab 9Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+9
86.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Braylon McReynolds for 9 yds to the SAlab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
86.7%
Marco Lee run for 5 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+2
86.7%
Marco Lee run for 2 yds to the SAlab 25Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+5
86.5%
Carter Bradley run for 5 yds to the SAlab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
86.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 6 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 36
-8
86.4%
Carter Bradley sacked by London Harris for a loss of 8 yards to the SAlab 28 Carter Bradley fumbled, recovered by TexSt Carter Bradley , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 28
0
85.8%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Devin VoisinSimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
85.5%
Jack Brooks punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0714% → 14%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
85.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Titus LyonsSimilar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
85.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 2 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
86.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Donnovan MoorerSimilar
Q2 13:41
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+3
86.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 34 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 3 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0686% → 85%
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
86.1%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Devin VoisinSimilar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
86.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 4 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
Q2 13:41
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
85.9%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Devin VoisinSimilar
Q2 12:35
4TH & 6
OWN 36
+4
85.4%
Jack Brooks punt for 43 yds , Rontavius Groves returns for 4 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:2514% → 14%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TexSt 24Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
86.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-5
86.3%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Jamie Sheriff for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 19Similar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+10
86.3%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 34 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 10 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9TD
10 plays · 43 yds · 4:1587% → 92%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
86.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 3 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
86.6%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Devin VoisinSimilar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+3
86.3%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+10
85.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 10 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
86.7%
La'Damian Webb run for 5 yds to the TexSt 12Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+7
86.7%
La'Damian Webb run for 7 yds to the TexSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
86.7%
La'Damian Webb run for no gain to the TexSt 5Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
86.7%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the TexSt 1Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.3%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the TexSt 2Similar
Q2 6:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 2 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:549% → 9%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
90.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 10 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
90.5%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the TexSt 35Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
90.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 5 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
90.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Julian Ortega-JonesSimilar
Q2 5:01
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
90.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11MISSED FG
16 plays · 49 yds · 5:0192% → 92%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
92.2%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to DJ Thomas-JonesSimilar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+6
92.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 6 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+8
92.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 8 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
92.5%
Carter Bradley run for 3 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
92.4%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to DJ Thomas-JonesSimilar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+4
92.2%
Braylon McReynolds run for 4 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q2 5:01
4TH & 3
OPP 47
+22
91.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 22 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
92.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+2
92.5%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+12
92.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 12 yds to the TexSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
92.7%
Omni Wells run for 3 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
0
92.4%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jalen WayneSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
+37
91.6%
Diego Guajardo 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:348% → 8%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
91.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Drue JacksonSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
91.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 4 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 31
-9
91.7%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Brock Higdon for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSt 22Similar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 15
OWN 22
0
92.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Caullin Lacy at the SAlab 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:0192% → 93%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
92.1%
Braylon McReynolds run for 1 yd to the SAlab 36Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-6
92.1%
Carter Bradley sacked by Sione Tupou for a loss of 6 yards to the SAlab 30Similar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+7
91.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Omni Wells for 7 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q3 11:20
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
92.7%
Jack Brooks punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Rontavius Groves at the TexSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 4:188% → 15%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
92.4%
Josh Berry run for 4 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
92.3%
Josh Berry run for 3 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+18
92.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 18 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
91.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 11 yds to the SAlab 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
91.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
91.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the SAlab 5Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
91.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Austin Groeschel for 1 yd to the SAlab 4Similar
Q3 7:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
84.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 4 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:5188% → 88%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
87.5%
Marco Lee run for 2 yds to the SAlab 22Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
87.4%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jalen WayneSimilar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+16
86.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 16 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
88.3%
Marco Lee run for 4 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
88.4%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to DJ Thomas-JonesSimilar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+4
87.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 4 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
87.5%
Jack Brooks punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:5913% → 12%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+11
87.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 11 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
87.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Charles BrownSimilar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
87.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Drue JacksonSimilar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 10
OWN 13
0
88.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Lincoln PareSimilar
Q3 3:05
4TH & 10
OWN 13
+3
88.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 42 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 3 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17TD
3 plays · 52 yds · 1:1289% → 96%
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
88.8%
Marco Lee run for 10 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
89.0%
Marco Lee run for 1 yd to the TexSt 41Similar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+41
96.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 41 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 2:545% → 14%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
95.0%
Josh Berry run for 10 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
94.9%
Josh Berry run for 7 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
94.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Donnovan MoorerSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+9
95.3%
Josh Berry run for 9 yds to the SAlab 28Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
94.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Charles BrownSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
94.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 3 yds to the SAlab 5Similar
Q4 13:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
86.1%
Josh Berry run for 5 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 3:2389% → 97%
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
88.9%
Marco Lee run for 8 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
89.9%
Marco Lee run for 5 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+2
89.9%
Marco Lee run for 2 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 13:49
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
89.4%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q4 13:49
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+11
88.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 11 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
90.0%
Omni Wells run for 2 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+28
97.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 28 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:323% → 8%
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
96.9%
Josh Berry run for 7 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+13
96.7%
Josh Berry run for 13 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
96.7%
Josh Berry run for 11 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
96.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 4 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+6
96.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 6 yds to the SAlab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
96.3%
Josh Berry run for 1 yd to the SAlab 33Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+2
96.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Josh Berry for 2 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
96.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+12
96.1%
Josh Berry run for 12 yds to the SAlab 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
96.1%
Josh Berry run for 3 yds to the SAlab 1Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+3
96.1%
Josh Berry run for 3 yds to the SAlab 4Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
96.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Chandler Speights for 1 yd to the SAlab 3Similar
Q4 3:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
91.7%
Layne Hatcher run for 3 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 0:5594% → 95%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+7
93.5%
Marco Lee run for 7 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+3
95.1%
Marco Lee run for 3 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q4 3:14
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+2
95.2%
Marco Lee run for 2 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
95.1%
Jack Brooks punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-15
99.4%
Ke'Shun Brown 15 Yd Interception Return (Diego Guajardo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 45 yds · 2:031% → 1%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 12 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
99.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 11 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
99.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Chandler Speights for 8 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+1
99.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jahmyl Jeter for 1 yd to the SAlab 45Similar
Q4 2:48
4TH & 3
OPP 45
+6
99.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jahmyl Jeter for 6 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
99.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dennis Robinson for 10 yds to the SAlab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
99.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Jahmyl JeterSimilar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+1
99.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Dennis Robinson for 1 yd to the SAlab 30Similar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 11
OPP 30
0
99.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Dennis RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:52
Josh Berry run for 5 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)
-8.5
TD · Q4 10:26
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 28 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)
+7.2
TD · Q3 1:53
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 41 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)
+7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com