2022 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2022 · Cajun Field
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Win probability · UL
modelUL aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playUL scoreGASO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:23 · Anthony Beck II punt for 47 yds , Eric Garror returns for 28 yds to the LaLaf 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:43: OJ Arnold pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 32 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK) — GASO win probability +7.5 pts (now 46%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:28: Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 18 yds for a TD, (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +5.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:45: Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 28 yds for a TD, (Kenneth Almendares KICK) — UL win probability +8.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Kenneth Almendares 34 yd FG GOOD — UL win probability +8.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:25: Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 25 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK) — GASO win probability +9.2 pts (now 14%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UL made the numbers' call on 7 of 11GASO made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
- Q1 13:35GASO 4th & 9 at GASO 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snapGo for it39.1%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.2%average punt
- Q1 11:52UL 4th & 1 at UL 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call60.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt60.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:23GASO 4th & 4 at GASO 43, down 7Close callPunted · 36.9% before the snapGo for it37.0%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 6:32UL 4th & 1 at GASO 37, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call64.0%70% to convertField goal63.3%−0.640% to makePunt63.3%−0.7average punt
- Q1 2:15UL 4th & 3 at GASO 3, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call65.3%44% to convertField goal64.8%−0.593% to makePunt62.0%−3.3average punt
- Q2 14:55GASO 4th & 1 at GASO 37, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call34.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt34.1%−0.8average punt
- Q2 10:54GASO 4th & 10 at GASO 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.7% before the snapGo for it32.0%−0.629% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.7%average punt
- Q2 8:22GASO 4th & 5 at GASO 30, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.1% before the snapGo for it25.0%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.3%average punt
- Q2 5:01UL 4th & 4 at GASO 37, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call77.1%48% to convertField goal75.7%−1.440% to makePunt75.4%−1.8average punt
- Q2 3:34UL 4th & 10 at GASO 31, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.9% before the snapGo for it76.8%−0.529% to convertField goalTheir call77.3%54% to makePunt75.9%−1.5average punt
- Q3 11:18UL 4th & 1 at GASO 13, up 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.3%71% to convertField goal91.8%−1.585% to makePunt87.0%−6.3average punt
- Q3 10:01UL 4th & 8 at GASO 10, up 20Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.0% before the snapGo for it93.3%−0.428% to convertField goalTheir call93.7%88% to makePunt90.1%−3.7average punt
- Q3 9:16GASO 4th & 8 at GASO 27, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snapGo for it5.6%−0.633% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.2%average punt
- Q3 7:33UL 4th & 4 at UL 37, up 23Close callPunted · 94.6% before the snapGo for it94.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 5:07GASO 4th & 7 at UL 42, down 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.4%37% to convertField goal4.0%−0.430% to makePunt4.3%−0.1average punt
- Q4 14:09UL 4th & 5 at GASO 25, up 16Close callKicked a field goal · 93.5% before the snapGo for it93.5%41% to convertField goalTheir call93.5%−<0.166% to makePunt90.1%−3.4average punt
- Q4 11:59GASO 4th & 15 at UL 22, down 19Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.0% before the snapGo for it2.6%−1.416% to convertField goalTheir call3.9%72% to makePunt0.5%−3.4average punt
- Q4 10:13UL 4th & 3 at GASO 23, up 16Close callKicked a field goal · 95.3% before the snapGo for it95.3%52% to convertField goalTheir call94.9%−0.470% to makePunt92.1%−3.2average punt
- Q4 4:19GASO 4th & 6 at UL 6, down 19Close callWent for it · 2.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.3%−0.131% to convertField goal2.4%91% to makePunt0.8%−1.6average punt
- Q4 2:35UL 4th & 1 at UL 15, up 19Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snapGo for it99.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.7%−0.3average punt
- Q4 1:56GASO 4th & 7 at GASO 35, down 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.2%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.9%−0.2average punt
- Q4 0:38GASO 4th & 20 at GASO 42, down 19Close callWent for it · 1.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.8%−<0.110% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3GASO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 10:52UL Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.9%97% to makeGo for two61.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:43GASO Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call38.8%97% to makeGo for two38.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:28UL Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.3%97% to makeGo for two65.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:45UL Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call73.7%97% to makeGo for two73.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:25GASO Touchdown, down 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call8.6%97% to makeGo for two8.5%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGASODrive 1FUMBLE5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2243% → 43%
ULDrive 2TD7 plays · 60 yds · 2:3857% → 59%
Q1 12:24
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+5
56.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 5 yds to the LaLaf 49Similar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
57.3%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 4 yds to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+5
57.5%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Latrell Bullard) to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+28
58.9%
John Stephens Jr. 28 Yd pass from Ben Wooldridge (Kenneth Almendares Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3PUNT11 plays · 30 yds · 2:1842% → 41%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
58.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 7 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
58.8%
LOUISIANA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Trey Amos) to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
58.6%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, False Start (Marcus Sanders Jr.) to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+11
59.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 11 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q1 8:23
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+28
59.5%
Anthony Beck II punt for 47 yds , Eric Garror returns for 28 yds to the LaLaf 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4INT14 plays · 59 yds · 6:0160% → 62%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
60.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Johnny Lumpkin for 8 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
61.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Errol Rogers Jr. for 6 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+16
62.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Pearse Migl for 16 yds to the GeoSo 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
-4
61.8%
Ben Wooldridge pass intercepted Derrick Canteen return for 4 yds to the GeoSo 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 5TD8 plays · 96 yds · 3:2339% → 46%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
61.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 12 yds to the GeoSo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+7
62.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 7 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+25
61.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Evan Lester for 25 yds to the LaLaf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
53.8%
OJ Arnold pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 32 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0457% → 65%
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+54
57.3%
Dre'lyn Washington run for 54 yds to the GeoSo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
59.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for 3 yds to the GeoSo 18Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+18
65.2%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jacob Bernard for 18 yds for a TD, (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 7PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 1:2937% → 36%
ULDrive 8TD1 play · 28 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
72.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 28 yds for a TD, (Kenneth Almendares KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 2:1631% → 28%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jalen White for no gain to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
69.8%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Khaleb Hood) to the GeoSo 15Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+6
70.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jalen White for 6 yds to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+9
71.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to OJ Arnold for 9 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q2 8:22
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+2
71.7%
Anthony Beck II punt for 43 yds , Eric Garror returns for 2 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10FG11 plays · 40 yds · 4:4173% → 81%
Q2 5:01
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+6
73.3%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Chris Smith for 6 yds to the GeoSo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 11FUMBLE13 plays · 50 yds · 2:4520% → 20%
Q2 2:59
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+7
79.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 7 yds to the GeoSo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
80.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 5 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
79.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 7 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
79.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 14 yds to the LaLaf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+33
79.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 33 yds to the LaLaf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 5
OPP 11
-5
78.9%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, False Start (Logan Langemeier) to the LaLaf 16Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+12
79.7%
Kyle Vantrease sacked by Andre Jones for a loss of 22 yards to the 50 yard line Kyle Vantrease fumbled, forced by Andre Jones, recovered by LaLaf Mason Narcisse , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard line , return for 12 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12END OF HALF9 plays · 33 yds · 0:2986% → 94%
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
50
+6
84.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Neal Johnson for 6 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+20
83.3%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 20 yds to the GeoSo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-3
85.6%
Ben Wooldridge sacked by Justin Ellis for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13FG14 plays · 62 yds · 4:4492% → 94%
GASODrive 14PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:366% → 6%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3894% → 94%
Q3 7:33
4TH & 4
OWN 37
+14
94.3%
Rhys Byrns punt for 45 yds , Khaleb Hood returns for 14 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16TD10 plays · 68 yds · 3:035% → 14%
Q3 6:16
3RD & 4
50
+5
95.3%
LOUISIANA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Zi'Yon Hill-Green) to the LaLaf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+9
95.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Gerald Green for 9 yds to the LaLaf 36Similar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 7
OPP 42
+17
95.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 17 yds to the LaLaf 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
86.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 25 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 17FG12 plays · 45 yds · 4:5991% → 97%
GASODrive 18FG10 plays · 60 yds · 1:535% → 7%
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+50
94.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Joshua Thompson for 50 yds to the LaLaf 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+9
95.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 9 yds to the LaLaf 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
94.8%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Illegal Procedure (Logan Langemeier) to the LaLaf 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19FG6 plays · 19 yds · 1:3995% → 98%
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
95.3%
Terrence Williams run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 20DOWNS16 plays · 69 yds · 5:494% → 2%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Darius Lewis for 1 yd to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
96.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 7 yds to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
96.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 8 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
96.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 5 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+7
96.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 7 yds to the LaLaf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+17
97.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 17 yds to the LaLaf 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3798% → 99%
Q4 3:18
3RD & 5
OWN 11
+4
99.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Johnny Lumpkin for 4 yds to the LaLaf 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 22DOWNS10 plays · 10 yds · 1:492% → 2%
Q4 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
98.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dalen Cobb for 3 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 7
OWN 35
+17
98.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 17 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
98.1%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Logan Langemeier) to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 20
OWN 42
+1
98.4%
Connor Cigelske pass complete to Gerald Green for 1 yd to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 19
OWN 43
-1
98.4%
Connor Cigelske sacked by Zi'Yon Hill-Green and Andre Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 23END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:25
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 25 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)
-9.2
FG · Q2 0:00
Kenneth Almendares 34 yd FG GOOD
+8.5
TD · Q2 10:45
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 28 yds for a TD, (Kenneth Almendares KICK)
+8.2