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TXST

Texas State 30 at UL Monroe 31

ULM
2022 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2022 · Malone Stadium
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Win probability · ULM
modelULM aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playULM scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:04 · Devyn McCormick punt for 49 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+22.5+11.30−11.3−22.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 75Home team on offense−12.7Pregame prior+5.3Score differential−6.5Garbage-time factor−3.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 4:30: Seth Keller 35 yd FG GOOD — TXST win probability +9.0 pts (now 63%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:24: Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 46 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK) — ULM win probability +14.0 pts (now 48%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:25: Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 18 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK) — ULM win probability +15.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. FG · Q4 14:56: Seth Keller 39 yd FG GOOD — TXST win probability +8.6 pts (now 67%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:20: Malik Jackson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK) — ULM win probability +25.3 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ULM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 5:07ULM 4th & 10 at ULM 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:54ULM 4th & 3 at TXST 3, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    38.8%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−4.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:39TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 46, up 14
    Close callPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:19ULM 4th & 14 at TXST 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    35.7%−4.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:30TXST 4th & 4 at ULM 18, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.3%−0.2
    79% to make
    Punt
    54.2%−4.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:04ULM 4th & 14 at ULM 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−0.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:45TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 16, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:49TXST 4th & 10 at ULM 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    52.0%−7.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:36TXST 4th & 1 at ULM 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    62.0%−2.3
    62% to make
    Punt
    56.4%−7.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:56TXST 4th & 9 at ULM 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−2.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    42.6%−13.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:33TXST 4th & 7 at ULM 44, down 1
    Close callPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    36.7%−1.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:14ULM 4th & 1 at ULM 19, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 7.6 ptsPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%−7.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:44TXST 4th & 8 at ULM 39, down 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 4.5 ptsWent for it · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.2%−4.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    37.7%
    36% to make
    Punt
    29.5%−8.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:07TXST 4th & 15 at ULM 21, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−42.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−47.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ULM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:12TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:06TXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:27TXST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:54ULM Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:24ULM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:25ULM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:20ULM Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−1.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4840% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
60.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 7 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
60.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+18
60.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+26
60.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 26 yds to the LaMon 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
60.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 8 yds to the LaMon 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+6
60.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the LaMon 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
60.5%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the LaMon 10Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
60.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 2 yds to the LaMon 8Similar
Q1 11:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
58.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 8 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:3759% → 59%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
59.1%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
59.1%
Malik Jackson run for 5 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+8
59.1%
Chandler Rogers run for 8 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
59.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Fred Lloyd Jr. for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 3
50
+12
59.1%
Bugs Mortimer run for 12 yds to the TexSt 38 Bugs Mortimer fumbled, recovered by TexSt Tory SpearsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 2:2142% → 47%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
58.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 22 yds to the LaMon 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
57.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 4 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+14
57.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 14 yds to the LaMon 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
57.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 9 yds to the LaMon 13Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 1
OPP 13
0
57.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+2
57.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the LaMon 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
53.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 11 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:5355% → 53%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
54.7%
Malik Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 18Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+4
54.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Nolan Quinlan for 4 yds to the LaMon 22Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 7
OWN 22
-3
54.5%
Chandler Rogers run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 19Similar
Q1 5:07
4TH & 10
OWN 19
+58
52.9%
Devyn McCormick punt for 43 yds , Ashtyn Hawkins returns for 58 yds to the LaMon 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5TD
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:4049% → 56%
Q1 5:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
51.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the LaMon 3Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
43.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2746% → 50%
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.2%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
46.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for 16 yds to the LaMon 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
47.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 10 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+29
47.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Andrew Henry for 29 yds to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
47.7%
Andrew Henry run for 1 yd to the TexSt 19Similar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
47.7%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:21
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+9
47.3%
Chandler Rogers run for 9 yds to the TexSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
47.7%
Chandler Rogers run for 1 yd to the TexSt 9Similar
Q1 4:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
47.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Bugs Mortimer for 4 yds to the TexSt 5Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
41.1%
Andrew Henry run for 2 yds to the TexSt 3Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
49.6%
Will Derrick pass complete to Chandler Rogers for 3 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:1553% → 57%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
47.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
47.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 4 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
47.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 7 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
46.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
46.6%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 3 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
46.8%
Layne Hatcher run for no gain to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 11:39
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
43.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tyrone Howell at the LaMon 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8FG
10 plays · 69 yds · 3:2044% → 45%
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
44.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Andrew Henry for 2 yds to the LaMon 19Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+2
44.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 2 yds to the LaMon 21Similar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
44.0%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offsides Roughing the Passer on BELL, Ben enforced (Ben Bell) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
46.1%
ROGERS, Chandler pass to the right incomplete intended for HOWELL, Tyrone thrown to the TXS10. PENALTY TXS Pass Interference on MILLS, Chris enforced 15 yards to the TXS23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
46.6%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+14
46.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Zach Jackson for 14 yds to the TexSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
46.6%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
46.6%
Andrew Henry run for 4 yds to the TexSt 5Similar
Q2 11:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-9
46.1%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Nelson Mbanasor and Sione Tupou for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSt 14Similar
Q2 8:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
45.1%
Calum Sutherland 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9FG
7 plays · 57 yds · 3:4354% → 63%
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
46.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
45.8%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 29Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+47
46.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 47 yds to the LaMon 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
45.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for a loss of 2 yards to the LaMon 26Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 12
OPP 26
-6
45.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the LaMon 32Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 18
OPP 32
+14
45.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 14 yds to the LaMon 18Similar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+35
37.0%
Seth Keller 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10PUNT
13 plays · 21 yds · 3:2037% → 33%
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
37.2%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Jordan Revels for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 20Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 13
OWN 20
-5
36.9%
UL MONROE Penalty, False Start (Tyrone Howell) to the LaMon 15Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 18
OWN 15
+3
36.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jevin Frett for 3 yds to the LaMon 18Similar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 15
OWN 18
+17
36.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Alred Luke for 17 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
37.6%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
37.3%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+13
36.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Zach Rasmussen for 13 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
35.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Alred Luke for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 45Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+7
34.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Alred Luke for 7 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 6
OPP 48
-8
34.9%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Nico Ezidore for a loss of 8 yards to the LaMon 44Similar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 14
OWN 44
0
32.9%
Devyn McCormick punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:1968% → 68%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
31.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+8
32.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 8 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+1
31.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TexSt 16Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 1
OWN 16
0
32.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tyrone Howell at the LaMon 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12TD
3 plays · 58 yds · 0:2135% → 48%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
34.6%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+12
34.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 12 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
48.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 46 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:1061% → 60%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
39.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jahmyl Jeter for no gain to the TexSt 43Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
39.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+12
40.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jahmyl Jeter for 12 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14INT
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:3845% → 44%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
45.0%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Nelson Mbanasor for a loss of 6 yards to the LaMon 29Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 16
OWN 29
0
44.0%
Chandler Rogers pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15FG
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3361% → 62%
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
39.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 9 yds to the LaMon 15Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 1
OPP 15
-10
39.1%
PARE, Lincoln rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the ULM9 (SNYDER, Kenard). PENALTY TXS Holding on LOVELL, Evan enforced 10 yards from the ULM15 to the ULM25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 11
OPP 25
0
39.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:22
3RD & 11
OPP 25
+1
40.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jahmyl Jeter for 1 yd to the LaMon 24Similar
Q3 12:49
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+41
37.7%
Seth Keller 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0364% → 63%
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
35.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
35.7%
Layne Hatcher run for 3 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+6
36.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 6 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q3 11:36
4TH & 1
OPP 27
0
36.6%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the LaMon 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 5:1137% → 57%
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
36.8%
Malik Jackson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+15
36.8%
Malik Jackson run for 15 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
38.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 2 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+8
38.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 8 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
39.5%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+9
39.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for 9 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+2
39.3%
Malik Jackson run for 2 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
40.8%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
40.8%
Andrew Henry run for 3 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+8
39.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 8 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
40.9%
Malik Jackson run for 6 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+18
56.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 18 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18FG
14 plays · 48 yds · 6:2252% → 67%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
47.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+3
47.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 3 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+8
48.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jahmyl Jeter for 8 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
45.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 3 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+6
45.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 6 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+14
45.1%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 14 yds to the LaMon 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
43.6%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd to the LaMon 33Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 9
OPP 33
-10
43.6%
HATCHER, Layne scrambles up the middle for a gain of 9 yards to the ULM24, End of Play. PENALTY TXS Holding on HERGEL, Kyle enforced 10 yards from the ULM33 to the ULM43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 19
OPP 43
+16
46.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 16 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+4
44.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Drue Jackson for 4 yds to the LaMon 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
43.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
43.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jahmyl Jeter for no gain to the LaMon 23Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+1
41.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jahmyl Jeter for 1 yd to the LaMon 22Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+39
33.2%
Seth Keller 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:3040% → 70%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+28
39.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 28 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
44.3%
Chandler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
43.8%
Malik Jackson run for no gain to the LaMon 48Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+19
40.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 19 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
47.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jevin Frett for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+5
47.3%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Disconcerting Signals enforced (Jarron Morris) to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+11
47.3%
Malik Jackson run for 11 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
47.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jevin Frett for 4 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+5
47.2%
Chandler Rogers run for 5 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+1
44.8%
Malik Jackson run for 1 yd to the TexSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
70.1%
Malik Jackson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:4738% → 40%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
61.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
59.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
60.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 3 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+15
58.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 15 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
56.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
56.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
57.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:33
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
60.1%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tyrone Howell at the LaMon 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:1965% → 60%
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
64.6%
Andrew Henry run for 2 yds to the LaMon 12Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+6
63.2%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Andrew Henry for 6 yds to the LaMon 18Similar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+1
61.5%
Malik Jackson run for 1 yd to the LaMon 19Similar
Q4 5:14
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
60.0%
Devyn McCormick punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Rontavius Groves at the TexSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22DOWNS
7 plays · 31 yds · 3:3041% → 39%
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
59.2%
Layne Hatcher run for 12 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
56.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+15
55.7%
HATCHER, Layne pass to the right incomplete intended for BROWN, Charles thrown to the ULM15. PENALTY ULM Pass Interference on MAYBERRY, Duece enforced 15 yards to the ULM41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
54.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the LaMon 40Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+4
54.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 4 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 5
OPP 36
-3
54.6%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Fitzroy Gardner and Quincy Ledet Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 39Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
61.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23FUMBLE
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0973% → 76%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
72.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Boogie Knight for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 34Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+2
77.0%
Malik Jackson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 36Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+3
76.2%
Chandler Rogers run for 3 yds to the LaMon 39 Chandler Rogers fumbled, recovered by TexSt Jordan RevelsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24MISSED FG
10 plays · 18 yds · 1:2342% → 23%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
57.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 7 yds to the LaMon 32Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+1
54.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the LaMon 31Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+15
57.5%
PARE, Lincoln rush up the middle for a loss of 3 yards to the ULM34 (SNYDER, Kenard). PENALTY ULM Face mask on SNYDER, Kenard enforced 15 yards from the ULM31 to the ULM16 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
54.5%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 21Similar
Q4 0:17
2ND & 15
OPP 21
0
64.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:12
3RD & 15
OPP 21
0
71.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:07
4TH & 15
OPP 21
+38
77.1%
Seth Keller 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
92.9%
[NH] Kneel down by ROGERS, Chandler at ULM20 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:20
Malik Jackson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)
+25.3
TD · Q3 6:25
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 18 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)
+15.8
TD · Q2 0:24
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 46 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)
+14
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com