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UL

Louisiana 24 at Southern Miss 39

USM
2022 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2022 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGSAFETYTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · [NHSG] Kneel down by USM at UL34 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ seconds remainingGarbage-time factor
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:29: Janari Dean run for 1 yd for a TD — USM win probability +2.3 pts (now 55%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. FG · Q1 0:00: Kenneth Almendares 50 Yd Field Goal — USM win probability +1.7 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 2:34: John Stephens Jr. 9 Yd pass from Ben Wooldridge (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — USM win probability +1.8 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 3:12: Terrence Williams 1 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick) — UL win probability +1.9 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 1:14: Natrone Brooks 52 Yd Interception Return (Briggs Bourgeois Kick) — UL win probability +1.2 pts (now 17%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 7 of 9UL made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:40UL 4th & 3 at USM 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    54.7%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    54.6%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:17USM 4th & 10 at USM 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:18UL 4th & 14 at UL 14, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:48UL 4th & 2 at UL 28, down 2
    Close callPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:00UL 4th & 13 at USM 33, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−0.5
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.8%
    49% to make
    Punt
    49.4%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:06USM 4th & 3 at USM 44, up 2
    Close callPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:47USM 4th & 6 at USM 29, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:06UL 4th & 10 at USM 23, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    40.6%−6.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:09USM 4th & 3 at USM 43, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:56USM 4th & 13 at USM 33, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−4.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:32UL 4th & 4 at USM 37, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    43.5%−2.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    43.1%−2.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:48USM 4th & 13 at USM 34, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−4.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:47USM 4th & 4 at midfield, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:30USM 4th & 8 at UL 8, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−1.8
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−19.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:11UL 4th & 4 at USM 4, down 2
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.3 ptsWent for it · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.9%−3.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    46.2%
    93% to make
    Punt
    20.7%−25.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:05USM 4th & 9 at USM 36, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−3.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:14UL 4th & 14 at UL 35, down 2
    Close callWent for it · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.7%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:08UL 4th & 1 at UL 33, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.3%−6.8
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.6%
Zach Wilcke pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0648% → 48%
Q1 14:46
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+4
51.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 4 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q1 14:46
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
51.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
51.6%
Chris Smith run for 3 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 13:40
4TH & 3
OPP 30
0
51.7%
Chris Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 3:2352% → 52%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
51.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+7
51.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
51.9%
run for 1 yd to the SoMis 43Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+2
51.9%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Latreal Jones for 2 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 7
OWN 45
-5
51.8%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 40Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+2
51.7%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 2 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
52.0%
Mason Hunt punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Eric Garror at the LaLaf 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
52.2%
Ben Wooldridge pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5TD
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:2953% → 55%
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
53.1%
Chandler Pittman run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 14Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+13
53.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 13 yds to the LaLaf 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
53.1%
Janari Dean run for no gain to the LaLaf 1Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
53.1%
Chandler Pittman run for no gain to the LaLaf 1Similar
Q1 7:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
55.4%
Janari Dean run for 1 yd for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:0147% → 46%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
53.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
53.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 10
OWN 18
-4
53.9%
Ben Wooldridge sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 14Similar
Q1 6:18
4TH & 14
OWN 14
+4
54.4%
Rhys Byrns punt for 49 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for 4 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7TD
3 plays · 59 yds · 1:4454% → 55%
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
54.2%
Janari Dean run for 2 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+5
54.3%
Chandler Pittman run for 5 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+52
54.7%
Tiaquelin Mims 52 Yd pass from Frank Gore Jr. (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4246% → 45%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
54.1%
Chris Smith run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
54.1%
Chris Smith run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
54.2%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:48
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
55.1%
Rhys Byrns punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9TD
1 play · 76 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+76
54.2%
Jason Brownlee 76 Yd pass from Zach Wilcke (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 10FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:3646% → 45%
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
54.1%
Terrence Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+24
54.2%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 24 yds to the LaLaf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
52.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
53.2%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
53.6%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offsides (Armondous Cooley) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
52.3%
Terrence Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 33Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 13
OPP 33
0
52.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 13
OPP 33
0
53.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 13
OPP 33
+50
55.2%
Kenneth Almendares 50 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:4755% → 56%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
54.8%
Chandler Pittman run for 5 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+8
55.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 8 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
55.3%
GORE, Frank rush to the right for a gain of 31 yards to the UL32 (AMOS, Trey). PENALTY Before the snap, USM Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the USM37 to the USM32. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 15
OWN 32
0
54.8%
Janari Dean run for no gain to the SoMis 32Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+11
54.6%
run for 11 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+1
55.5%
run for 1 yd to the SoMis 44Similar
Q2 11:06
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
55.5%
Mason Hunt punt for 55 yds, downed at the LaLaf 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12SF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:4544% → 44%
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
55.8%
Chris Smith run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 2Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 9
OWN 2
-2
56.1%
Camron Harrell SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 4:4356% → 61%
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
56.0%
Antavious Willis run for 7 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+6
57.3%
run for 6 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
57.3%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 14 yds to the LaLaf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
57.9%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
57.7%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+12
56.8%
run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
58.3%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+2
60.1%
Chandler Pittman run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+14
59.2%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Chandler Pittman for 14 yds to the LaLaf 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
60.1%
run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 12Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
60.7%
Jason Brownlee 12 Yd pass from Zach Wilcke (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5044% → 44%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
56.3%
Terrence Williams run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
54.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 2 yds to the LaLaf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
55.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
55.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrence Williams for 2 yds to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+63
56.5%
Michael Jefferson 63 Yd pass from Ben Wooldridge (Kenneth Almendares PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:5258% → 56%
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
57.9%
Chandler Pittman run for 1 yd to the SoMis 26Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
57.6%
LOUISIANA Penalty, Offsides (Mason Narcisse) to the SoMis 31Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
58.9%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 30Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-1
57.5%
Zach Wilcke sacked by Zi'Yon Hill-Green for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 29Similar
Q2 1:47
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
56.1%
Mason Hunt punt for 40 yds , Eric Garror returns for no gain to the LaLaf 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16MISSED FG
6 plays · 46 yds · 0:4144% → 44%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+20
56.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 20 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+26
53.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 26 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
51.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
52.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
53.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+40
56.3%
Kenneth Almendares 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:5060% → 60%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
59.5%
Janari Dean run for 3 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+10
59.7%
Antavious Willis run for 10 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
60.5%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
60.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+3
59.8%
Janari Dean run for 3 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
59.9%
Mason Hunt punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Eric Garror at the LaLaf 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
59.4%
Terrence Williams run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 49 yds · 1:2542% → 45%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
57.8%
Chris Smith run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
56.8%
Chris Smith run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+22
55.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Neal Johnson for 22 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
54.9%
Chris Smith run for 11 yds to the SoMis 26 Chris Smith fumbled, recovered by SoMis Jay StanleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 3:3960% → 57%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
59.5%
Chandler Pittman run for 6 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+1
60.7%
Zach Wilcke run for 1 yd to the SoMis 33Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+3
58.9%
run for 3 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
60.3%
Janari Dean run for 2 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+3
60.5%
Chandler Pittman run for 3 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-8
60.2%
run for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 33Similar
Q3 9:56
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
57.4%
Mason Hunt punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Eric Garror at the LaLaf 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 45 yds · 3:2441% → 42%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
58.7%
Terrence Williams run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 23Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+34
58.4%
Dontae Fleming run for 34 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
54.9%
Ben Wooldridge run for 5 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+1
54.5%
Terrence Williams run for 1 yd to the SoMis 37Similar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
55.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Peter LeBlanc for no gain to the SoMis 37Similar
Q3 6:32
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
57.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:4462% → 58%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
61.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the SoMis 37Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
61.1%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 2 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-5
60.3%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, False Start (Jason Brownlee) to the SoMis 34Similar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 13
OWN 34
0
58.8%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:48
4TH & 13
OWN 34
0
57.7%
Mason Hunt punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Eric Garror at the LaLaf 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 23TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 2:1441% → 46%
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
59.1%
Chris Smith run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 17Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+27
59.2%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Neal Johnson for 27 yds to the LaLaf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+42
55.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Michael Jefferson for 42 yds to the SoMis 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
52.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+5
52.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrence Williams for 5 yds to the SoMis 9Similar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+9
54.5%
John Stephens Jr. 9 Yd pass from Ben Wooldridge (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:4761% → 63%
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
60.9%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 20Similar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+9
60.6%
Zach Wilcke run for 9 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
61.2%
run for no gain to the SoMis 29Similar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+15
59.8%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 15 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
64.1%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
64.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
50
0
65.4%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 4
50
0
63.2%
Mason Hunt punt for 19 yds, downed at the LaLaf 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 25INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1441% → 40%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
59.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
60.2%
Ben Wooldridge pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26FG
9 plays · 28 yds · 4:0367% → 66%
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
67.0%
Janari Dean run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+2
68.1%
Janari Dean run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q4 14:33
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+4
66.4%
run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
68.1%
run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 24Similar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
68.1%
WILCKE, Zach pass to the right incomplete intended for BROWNLEE, Jason thrown to the UL0. PENALTY UL Pass Interference on MCDANIEL, Amir enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the UL9 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
68.1%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 10Similar
Q4 14:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
68.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 8Similar
Q4 14:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
66.4%
Zach Wilcke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
66.2%
Briggs Bourgeois 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 27DOWNS
17 plays · 56 yds · 6:1941% → 36%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
59.1%
Ben Wooldridge run for no gain to the LaLaf 40Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+8
60.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Neal Johnson for 8 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 2
OWN 48
0
58.3%
LOUISIANA Penalty, Illegal Touch-Pass on BERNARD, Jacob enforced (Jacob Bernard) to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q4 8:42
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+5
61.0%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offsides (Daylen Gill) to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
58.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Errol Rogers Jr. for 8 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+1
57.9%
Terrence Williams run for 1 yd to the SoMis 38Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+5
58.3%
Terrence Williams run for 5 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
56.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+13
56.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to John Stephens Jr. for 13 yds to the SoMis 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
56.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 4 yds to the SoMis 16Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+5
56.1%
Ben Wooldridge run for 5 yds to the SoMis 11Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+3
58.1%
Terrence Williams run for 3 yds to the SoMis 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
56.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
56.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
58.2%
Terrence Williams run for 4 yds to the SoMis 4Similar
Q4 4:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
63.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 28FUMBLE
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
74.7%
run for 3 yds to the SoMis 7 Frank Gore Jr. fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Kam PedescleauxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 29TD
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5144% → 44%
Q4 4:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
56.1%
Chris Smith run for 6 yds to the SoMis 1Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
56.1%
Chris Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 1Similar
Q4 4:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+15
58.2%
WOOLDRIDGE, Ben pass to the right incomplete intended for OSSAI, KC. PENALTY USM Roughing the Passer on STANLEY, Jay enforced 15 yards from the UL00 to the UL15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
56.3%
Terrence Williams 1 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 30PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 1:0279% → 77%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
78.6%
run for no gain to the SoMis 35Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
78.5%
run for no gain to the SoMis 35Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+1
76.2%
run for 1 yd to the SoMis 36Similar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
77.3%
Mason Hunt punt for 45 yds, downed at the LaLaf 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 31INT TD
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:5115% → 17%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+20
84.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Errol Rogers Jr. for 20 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
82.5%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
83.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 10
OWN 39
-4
84.5%
Ben Wooldridge sacked by Dominic Quewon and Quentin Bivens for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 35Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 14
OWN 35
-52
83.3%
Natrone Brooks 52 Yd Interception Return (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 32DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5718% → 14%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-6
82.3%
Ben Wooldridge sacked by Brodarius Lewis for a loss of 6 yards to the LaLaf 18Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 16
OWN 18
+10
83.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Terrence Williams for 10 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+5
82.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Pearse Migl for 5 yds to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q4 0:08
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
85.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 33END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
95.9%
[NHSG] Kneel down by USM at UL34 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+4.1
TD · Q1 7:29
Janari Dean run for 1 yd for a TD
+2.3
TD · Q4 3:12
Terrence Williams 1 Yd Run (Kenneth Almendares Kick)
-1.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com