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USM

Southern Miss 20 at Texas State 14

TXST
2022 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2022 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:07 · Seamus O'Kelly punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 146Home team on offense−13.1Pregame prior−1.0Garbage-time factor−10.6Score differential−3.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:52: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 4 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +12.1 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:36: Jahmyl Jeter run for no gain to the TexSt 24 — TXST win probability +11.3 pts (now 32%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:14: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 6 yds to the TexSt 21 — TXST win probability +12.4 pts (now 23%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:21: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 74 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +50.2 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:32: Zach Wilcke pass complete to Chandler Pittman for 53 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK) — USM win probability +64.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 9 of 11USM made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 12:55TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:13USM 4th & 6 at USM 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:42TXST 4th & 24 at TXST 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−0.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:36USM 4th & 5 at TXST 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    51.7%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:05TXST 4th & 14 at TXST 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%−0.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:35TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    46.3%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:38USM 4th & 15 at USM 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:13TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 2, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−1.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00USM 4th & 6 at TXST 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    50.2%−6.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:43TXST 4th & 1 at USM 35, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    37.3%−4.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    36.0%−5.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:32USM 4th & 5 at TXST 41, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    65.3%−1.8
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%−1.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:14TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 31, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−1.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:15USM 4th & 7 at USM 23, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−2.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:40TXST 4th & 14 at TXST 40, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−3.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:22USM 4th & 13 at TXST 42, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−1.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    70.0%−1.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:51TXST 4th & 18 at TXST 12, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−4.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:51TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 27, down 6
    Close callPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:24USM 4th & 14 at USM 35, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−4.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:07TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 24, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.9 ptsPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%−3.9
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:14USM 4th & 5 at TXST 44, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    86.3%−1.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%−1.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:32USM 4th & 4 at USM 47, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.5%−7.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USM made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 6:32USM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:52TXST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 1:21TXST Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.1%−7.8
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:32USM Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.6 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%−1.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:0035% → 36%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
34.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 4 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+20
34.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 20 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
34.7%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Lincoln PareSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
34.7%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Charles BrownSimilar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+5
34.7%
PENALTY USM Offside (Quewon,Dominic) 5 yards from TXST41 to TXST46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+1
34.7%
Layne Hatcher run for 1 yd to the TexSt 45Similar
Q1 12:55
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
35.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:4265% → 63%
Q1 12:55
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+11
35.5%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 11 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
35.3%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Antavious Willis for 4 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+8
35.5%
Zach Wilcke run for 8 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
35.3%
Zach Wilcke pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
35.5%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 4 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+3
35.4%
Antavious Willis run for 3 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q1 10:13
4TH & 6
OWN 45
+32
36.6%
Mason Hunt punt blocked by Kenny Haynes, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 23 blocked by Kenny HaynesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
3 plays · -16 yds · 1:3137% → 37%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
36.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TexSt 22Similar
Q1 10:13
3RD & 19
OWN 14
+5
36.3%
Lincoln Pare pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 5 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 24
OWN 9
0
36.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4FG
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:0664% → 63%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
36.2%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 7 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+7
36.1%
Janari Dean run for 7 yds to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
36.1%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Antavious Willis for 1 yd to the TexSt 20Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+3
36.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 6
OPP 17
-5
36.4%
PENALTY USM False Start (Baker,Luke) 5 yards from TXST17 to TXST22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 11
OPP 22
+6
36.5%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 6 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q1 5:36
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+33
37.3%
Briggs Bourgeois 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 3:3137% → 37%
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
37.0%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+15
37.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hatcher,Layne sacked for loss of 6 yards to the TXST17 (Ratcliff,Josh) PENALTY USM Personal Foul (Mahaffey,Jordyn) 15 yards from TXST23 to TXST38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
37.4%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+7
38.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Calvin Hill for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
50
+2
38.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Calvin Hill for 2 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 12
OWN 48
+2
37.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 2 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q1 2:05
4TH & 14
OWN 46
0
37.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6INT
4 plays · 30 yds · 1:4262% → 63%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
37.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 23Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+8
38.0%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 8 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+21
37.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 21 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
37.2%
Zach Wilcke pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2538% → 39%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+12
38.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 12 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+6
39.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 6 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+1
39.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 13:35
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
39.4%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the TexSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:5763% → 60%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
37.0%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Demarcus Jones for 5 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+2
36.8%
Zach Wilcke run for 2 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 7
OPP 43
-8
37.3%
Zach Wilcke sacked by Nelson Mbanasor for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 49Similar
Q2 11:38
4TH & 15
OWN 49
0
39.6%
Mason Hunt punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2539% → 38%
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
39.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 8
OWN 4
0
39.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 8
OWN 4
-2
38.2%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Dominic Quewon for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 2Similar
Q2 10:13
4TH & 10
OWN 2
0
38.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 33 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for no gain to the TexSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10TD
7 plays · 37 yds · 3:4163% → 71%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
37.5%
Chandler Pittman run for no gain to the TexSt 37Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
37.5%
Janari Dean run for 5 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+6
37.5%
Janari Dean run for 6 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
36.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+4
37.0%
Chandler Pittman run for 4 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+20
37.5%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 20 yds to the TexSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
28.9%
Janari Dean run for 2 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4030% → 44%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+45
30.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 45 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
32.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Titus LyonsSimilar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+15
32.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 15 yds to the SoMis 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
32.9%
Calvin Hill run for no gain to the SoMis 15Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+4
32.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 4 yds to the SoMis 11Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+7
31.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Tyler Huff for 7 yds Tyler Huff fumbled, recovered by SoMis Tyler Huff for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
43.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 4 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12FG
15 plays · 52 yds · 3:5261% → 69%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
39.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 24Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+21
39.2%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 21 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
36.1%
Zach Wilcke run for 7 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+2
35.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+1
35.5%
Chandler Pittman run for 1 yd to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+18
35.6%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 18 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
34.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 13
OPP 30
+9
34.6%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Antavious Willis for 9 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+2
35.1%
Zach Wilcke run for 2 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+40
30.9%
Briggs Bourgeois 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13INT
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:1267% → 70%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
32.6%
Janari Dean run for 5 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
31.9%
Zach Wilcke pass incomplete to Tiaquelin MimsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
32.6%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 5 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
31.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+8
30.8%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Antavious Willis for 8 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
30.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
50
+2
30.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
30.4%
Zach Wilcke pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14DOWNS
6 plays · 17 yds · 3:0537% → 37%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
37.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 9 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+2
38.7%
Layne Hatcher run for 2 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
38.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 4 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+3
38.7%
Layne Hatcher run for 3 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+2
38.2%
Layne Hatcher run for 2 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q3 8:43
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+3
37.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 2:1171% → 70%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 5
OWN 43
+11
29.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 11 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
28.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the TexSt 45Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+4
28.5%
Janari Dean run for 4 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
28.9%
Zach Wilcke pass incomplete to Luke BakerSimilar
Q3 6:32
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
30.1%
Mason Hunt punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:1834% → 33%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
33.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 11 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
34.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
34.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 5 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
33.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q3 5:14
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
32.6%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5969% → 68%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
31.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-4
30.0%
Zach Wilcke sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 22Similar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+1
32.5%
Zach Wilcke run for 1 yd to the SoMis 23Similar
Q3 3:15
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
32.4%
Mason Hunt punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:3534% → 32%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
34.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 7 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
36.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+15
34.8%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
37.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 4 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 14
OWN 40
0
34.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 14
OWN 40
0
33.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q3 0:40
4TH & 14
OWN 40
0
31.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:3872% → 73%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
28.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 8 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
26.7%
Janari Dean run for 3 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
27.3%
Chandler Pittman run for 3 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+3
26.9%
Chandler Pittman run for 3 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+9
26.4%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Antavious Willis for 9 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
24.4%
Janari Dean run for 2 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 12
OPP 41
0
24.4%
Zach Wilcke pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 12
OPP 41
+1
25.3%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Antavious Willis for 1 yd to the TexSt 42Similar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 13
OPP 42
0
27.5%
Mason Hunt punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:3133% → 29%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
32.7%
Layne Hatcher run for 1 yd to the TexSt 21Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-9
32.6%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Quentin Bivens for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSt 12Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 18
OWN 12
0
30.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q4 9:51
4TH & 18
OWN 12
0
29.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 13 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21FUMBLE
3 plays · 1 yds · 1:1580% → 79%
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
20.4%
Janari Dean run for 1 yd to the TexSt 26Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+3
20.5%
Janari Dean run for 3 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q4 8:36
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+1
21.0%
Janari Dean run for 1 yd to the TexSt 24 Janari Dean fumbled, recovered by SoMis Sione TupouSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:4532% → 27%
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
32.3%
Jahmyl Jeter run for no gain to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
33.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for no gain to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+3
31.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 3 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q4 6:51
4TH & 7
OWN 27
0
26.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2782% → 78%
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
18.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
18.2%
Jake Lange pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q4 6:51
3RD & 6
OWN 43
-8
18.7%
Jake Lange sacked by Nelson Mbanasor for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 35 Jake Lange fumbled, recovered by SoMis Jake Lange , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 5:24
4TH & 14
OWN 35
0
22.1%
Mason Hunt punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1729% → 23%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
28.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 1 yd to the TexSt 18Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+6
28.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 6 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 3
OWN 24
0
28.3%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Julian Ortega-JonesSimilar
Q4 4:07
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
23.3%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the SoMis 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25PUNT
11 plays · 16 yds · 1:5385% → 90%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
15.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 9 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 1
OWN 49
-10
14.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Pittman,Chandler rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USM50 (Hockley,Rodrick) PENALTY USM Holding (Doss,Tykeem) 10 yards from USM49 to USM39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+12
15.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 12 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
14.0%
Janari Dean run for 2 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+1
11.1%
Janari Dean run for 1 yd to the TexSt 48Similar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+4
11.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q4 2:20
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
10.1%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Delay Of Game (Natrone Brooks) declinedSimilar
Q4 2:14
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
10.1%
Mason Hunt punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 26TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 0:5323% → 72%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
22.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 6 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+5
22.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 5 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
22.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
22.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Julian Ortega-JonesSimilar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+74
72.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 74 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 27TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 0:4535% → 96%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
65.2%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 7 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+3
60.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
62.2%
Zach Wilcke run for 5 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
59.4%
Zach Wilcke pass incomplete to Tiaquelin MimsSimilar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+1
61.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 47Similar
Q4 0:32
4TH & 4
OWN 47
+53
4.2%
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Chandler Pittman for 53 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 28INT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:2610% → 12%
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
9.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+22
9.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 22 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
11.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q4 0:06
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
11.5%
Layne Hatcher pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
3.0%
Kneel down by Southern Miss. at TXST35 for loss of 3 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:32
Zach Wilcke pass complete to Chandler Pittman for 53 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)
-64.8
TD · Q4 1:21
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 74 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)
+50.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:14
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 6 yds to the TexSt 21
+12.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com