Try the model
TROY

Troy 10 at South Alabama 6

USA
2022 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2022 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · La'Damian Webb run for 15 yds to the SAlab 49 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior+9.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q4 7:35: Brooks Buce 51 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +10.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:35: Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 5 yds to the SAlab 30 — USA win probability +10.2 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  3. PUNT · Q4 4:01: Jack Brooks punt for 25 yds — TROY win probability +9.9 pts (now 67%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:01: DK Billingsley run for 6 yds to the Troy 30 — TROY win probability +9.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:54: Timeout SOUTH ALABAMA, clock 01:54 — TROY win probability +12.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9TROY made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00USA 4th & 1 at USA 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:13USA 4th & 22 at USA 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:38TROY 4th & 3 at TROY 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:09USA 4th & 7 at USA 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:09TROY 4th & 2 at USA 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    40.8%−0.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    40.5%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:46TROY 4th & 3 at USA 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    48.6%−0.7
    51% to make
    Punt
    48.0%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:06TROY 4th & 22 at USA 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−1.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    52.9%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:04USA 4th & 8 at USA 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:05TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:47TROY 4th & 10 at USA 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:43USA 4th & 4 at USA 13, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−0.5
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:17TROY 4th & 11 at USA 19, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−2.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    42.7%−11.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:28USA 4th & 20 at USA 10, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−4.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:32USA 4th & 10 at TROY 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    42.0%−0.8
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:48TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 25, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.5 ptsPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%−3.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:27USA 4th & 7 at TROY 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−2.8
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    27.9%−14.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:35TROY 4th & 18 at USA 33, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−6.1
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.0%
    49% to make
    Punt
    49.5%−3.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:01USA 4th & 11 at TROY 49, down 4
    Close callPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%−0.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:12TROY 4th & 9 at TROY 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 14:56TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 3 yds · 3:4759% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
59.2%
Omni Wells run for 7 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
59.2%
Omni Wells run for no gain to the SAlab 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
59.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 2 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+15
59.2%
La'Damian Webb run for 15 yds to the SAlab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 39
-4
59.2%
Carter Bradley sacked by TJ Harris for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 24
OWN 35
0
59.2%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to DJ Thomas-JonesSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 24
OWN 35
+2
59.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 2 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q1 11:13
4TH & 22
OWN 37
0
59.1%
Jack Brooks punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Deshon Stoudemire at the Troy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:3541% → 41%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
59.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 18Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+5
59.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 4
OWN 23
-3
59.5%
Jarret Doege sacked by Jamie Sheriff for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 20Similar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
59.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
59.2%
DK Billingsley run for 5 yds to the Troy 42Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
59.0%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Tez JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:38
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
59.2%
Mike Rivers punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 2:2959% → 59%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+11
59.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 11 yds to the SAlab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
59.5%
Marco Lee run for 3 yds to the SAlab 20Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+7
59.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 7 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 6
OWN 27
-1
59.3%
Carter Bradley sacked by T.J. Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 26Similar
Q1 5:09
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
58.9%
Jack Brooks punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Deshon Stoudemire at the Troy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 5:1341% → 49%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
59.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Deshon Stoudemire for 8 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+9
58.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
50
+5
58.3%
DK Billingsley run for 5 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+6
58.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
58.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+1
57.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the SAlab 32Similar
Q1 5:09
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+1
58.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the SAlab 31Similar
Q1 5:09
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+15
58.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 15 yds to the SAlab 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
56.7%
DK Billingsley run for 11 yds to the SAlab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
51.4%
DK Billingsley run for 5 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5INT
7 plays · 32 yds · 3:0654% → 53%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
53.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to DJ Thomas-Jones for 6 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+9
54.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 9 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
54.1%
La'Damian Webb run for 2 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+21
54.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 21 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
55.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 4 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 16
OPP 44
0
53.4%
Carter Bradley pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6PUNT
15 plays · 26 yds · 7:4049% → 53%
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
51.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+5
50.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
50.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+7
50.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 7 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
50.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+5
50.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to DK Billingsley for 5 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+4
50.3%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q2 11:46
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+4
51.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Tez Johnson for 4 yds to the SAlab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
49.8%
PENALTY TROY False Start (King,Daniel) 5 yards from SOAL28 to SOAL33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 15
OPP 33
-9
49.8%
Jarret Doege sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the SAlab 42Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 24
OPP 42
+2
50.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Devonte Ross for 2 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 22
OPP 40
0
51.1%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to RaJae' JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 24
OPP 42
+2
50.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Devonte Ross for 2 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
Q2 11:46
3RD & 22
OPP 40
0
51.1%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to RaJae' JohnsonSimilar
Q2 4:06
4TH & 22
OPP 40
0
47.1%
Mike Rivers punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 2:0247% → 45%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
47.4%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the SAlab 12Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 9
OWN 12
0
47.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to DJ Thomas-JonesSimilar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 9
OWN 12
0
47.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to DJ Thomas-JonesSimilar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 9
OWN 12
+15
44.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 15 yds to the SAlab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
45.8%
Omni Wells run for 3 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
46.0%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+4
44.9%
Carter Bradley run for 4 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q2 2:04
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
44.8%
Jack Brooks punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5957% → 56%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
42.9%
Jarret Doege run for 1 yd to the Troy 23Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 11
OWN 23
0
43.5%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to RaJae' JohnsonSimilar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+6
44.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 6 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+6
44.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 6 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
44.2%
Mike Rivers punt for 46 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for no gain to the SAlab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9FG
12 plays · 53 yds · 1:0545% → 54%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
45.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 16 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-6
46.9%
Carter Bradley sacked by Richard Jibunor for a loss of 6 yards to the SAlab 34Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 16
OWN 34
+5
44.3%
PENALTY TROY Delay Of Game 5 yards from SOAL34 to SOAL39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+2
45.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Omni Wells for 2 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+14
44.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 14 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
48.1%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Devin VoisinSimilar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+11
47.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 11 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
49.8%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+11
49.8%
Omni Wells run for 11 yds to the Troy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+41
53.7%
Diego Guajardo 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 26 yds · 2:1353% → 50%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
47.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+1
47.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the SAlab 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+4
47.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q3 12:47
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
50.2%
Mike Rivers punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:0450% → 47%
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
49.7%
La'Damian Webb run for no gain to the SAlab 7Similar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+6
49.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 6 yds to the SAlab 13Similar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 4
OWN 13
0
48.6%
Carter Bradley run for no gain to the SAlab 13Similar
Q3 10:43
4TH & 4
OWN 13
0
47.2%
Jack Brooks punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12MISSED FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:2654% → 55%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
46.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 14 yds to the SAlab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
45.5%
DK Billingsley run for 7 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+18
45.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 18 yds to the SAlab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
44.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Doege,Jarret pass complete deep right to Ross,Devonte for 12 yards to the SOAL06 (Jordan,Jalen) PENALTY TROY Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Betts,Grant) 5 yards from SOAL18 to SOAL23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+1
44.4%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the SAlab 22Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 14
OPP 22
0
44.7%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Kimani VidalSimilar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 14
OPP 22
0
44.7%
Jarret Doege pass incomplete to Kimani VidalSimilar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 14
OPP 22
+3
45.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Tez Johnson for 3 yds to the SAlab 19Similar
Q3 7:17
4TH & 11
OPP 19
+37
45.3%
Brooks Buce 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:4948% → 46%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 20
OWN 10
0
48.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 20
OWN 10
0
48.2%
La'Damian Webb run for no gain to the SAlab 10Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 20
OWN 10
0
46.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Omni Wells for no gain to the SAlab 10Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 20
OWN 10
0
48.2%
La'Damian Webb run for no gain to the SAlab 10Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 20
OWN 10
0
46.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Omni Wells for no gain to the SAlab 10Similar
Q3 5:28
4TH & 20
OWN 10
0
45.9%
Jack Brooks punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14INT
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:5357% → 54%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-15
43.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Doege,Jarret pass incomplete short left to Johnson,Tez PENALTY TROY Personal Foul (King,Daniel) 15 yards from TROY39 to TROY24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 25
OWN 24
+3
46.4%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 25
OWN 24
+3
46.4%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 22
OWN 27
0
45.9%
Jarret Doege pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:0351% → 45%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
51.1%
Marco Lee run for 5 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+7
51.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 7 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
52.0%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Devin VoisinSimilar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
51.8%
Carter Bradley run for no gain to the Troy 41Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
51.8%
Carter Bradley run for no gain to the Troy 41Similar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
51.1%
Marco Lee run for 5 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q3 2:32
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
45.0%
Jack Brooks punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:4458% → 59%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
42.4%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the Troy 7Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+9
42.7%
DK Billingsley run for 9 yds to the Troy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
41.2%
DK Billingsley run for 5 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+2
40.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to DK Billingsley for 2 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+2
39.3%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 2 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 1
OWN 25
+5
40.7%
Mike Rivers punt for 54 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 5 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 4:2145% → 55%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
44.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 12 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
45.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 7 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+1
48.0%
La'Damian Webb run for 1 yd to the SAlab 46Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+16
47.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 16 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
49.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 5 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+16
51.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 16 yds to the Troy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
51.8%
La'Damian Webb run for 3 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 13
OPP 20
+6
51.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 6 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
49.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q4 10:27
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+32
55.1%
Diego Guajardo 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18FG
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:5253% → 66%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+36
47.5%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 36 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
42.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 14 yds to the SAlab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
41.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the SAlab 24Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-3
41.0%
Gunnar Watson sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 27Similar
Q4 10:27
3RD & 12
OPP 27
-6
44.0%
Jarret Doege sacked by Charles Coleman III for a loss of 6 yards to the SAlab 33Similar
Q4 7:35
4TH & 18
OPP 33
+51
33.7%
Brooks Buce 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:3441% → 33%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 5 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
42.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 4 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
42.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 4 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
43.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to La'Damian Webb for 9 yds to the SAlab 47Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+5
46.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 5 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
46.9%
Carter Bradley run for 3 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+4
47.0%
La'Damian Webb run for 4 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 11
OPP 49
0
42.8%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jalen WayneSimilar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 11
OPP 49
0
32.9%
Jack Brooks punt for 25 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20PUNT
13 plays · 23 yds · 3:4976% → 94%
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
23.9%
DK Billingsley run for 6 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+3
23.0%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+2
23.3%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
23.3%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+9
11.3%
DK Billingsley run for 9 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
10.3%
DK Billingsley run for 9 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 1
OPP 45
0
6.9%
DK Billingsley run for no gain to the SAlab 45Similar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+3
5.2%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
Q4 1:04
4TH & 4
OPP 48
-5
6.7%
PENALTY TROY Delay Of Game 5 yards from SOAL48 to TROY47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:12
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
6.2%
Mike Rivers punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:1213% → 13%
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
13.2%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jalen WayneSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+2
12.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 2 yds Devin Voisin fumbled, recovered by Troy Caullin LacySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-12.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:54
Timeout SOUTH ALABAMA, clock 01:54
-12
FG · Q4 7:35
Brooks Buce 51 yd FG GOOD
-10.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com