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TXST

Texas State 14 at Troy 17

TROY
2022 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2022 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:14 · Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Deshon Stoudemire at the Troy 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Pregame prior+35.3Home team on offense−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Score differential−0.2Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:22: Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +8.5 pts (now 25%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:23: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 64 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +12.1 pts (now 34%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:00: Timeout TROY, clock 04:00 — TXST win probability +9.2 pts (now 44%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:45: Jarret Doege pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 23 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK) — TROY win probability +20.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:42: Timeout TEXAS STATE, clock 01:42 — TROY win probability +11.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 6 of 8TXST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:14TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:04TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:47TXST 4th & 4 at TROY 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    17.7%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    17.6%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:47TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:08TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:00TXST 4th & 8 at TROY 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    15.7%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:20TROY 4th & 9 at TXST 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    83.1%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:19TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:48TROY 4th & 3 at TXST 6, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.8%−0.6
    91% to make
    Punt
    79.3%−4.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:44TROY 4th & 2 at TROY 33, down 4
    Close callPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:37TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 16, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−1.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:32TROY 4th & 5 at TROY 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:54TXST 4th & 11 at TXST 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−3.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:13TROY 4th & 14 at TROY 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−2.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:01TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.1%−3.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:30TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:53TROY 4th & 9 at TROY 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−3.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:28TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 38, down 3
    Close callPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 13:56TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:22TXST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:23TXST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:45TROY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1INT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:5387% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
87.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+10
87.1%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 10 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
87.1%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
87.1%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
86.7%
Gunnar Watson pass interceptedSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
86.5%
PARE, Lincoln rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the TXS35 (MARTIAL, Carlton;JACKSON, T.J.). PENALTY TXS Holding on COSTILLA, Alex enforced 10 yards from the TXS33 to the TXS23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5313% → 14%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 20
OWN 23
+5
86.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 5 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 15
OWN 28
0
86.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 15
OWN 28
+10
86.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 10 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q1 11:14
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
86.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Deshon Stoudemire at the Troy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1086% → 86%
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 2 yds to the Troy 27Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
86.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Clayton Ollendieck for 4 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
86.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:04
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
85.6%
Mike Rivers punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4DOWNS
11 plays · 38 yds · 6:1714% → 17%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
85.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 8 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
85.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TexSt 34Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+12
85.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 12 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
85.4%
Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 6
50
+4
85.4%
Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+3
85.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
85.4%
Layne Hatcher run for 4 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
85.3%
Layne Hatcher run for no gain to the Troy 39Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
85.4%
HATCHER, Layne pass to the left incomplete intended for BANKS, Javen thrown to the TRO15; QB hurried by SOLOMON, Javon. PENALTY TXS Holding on WEST, Richard TRO Holding on FLETCHER, O'shai , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+2
85.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q1 3:47
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
83.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0084% → 83%
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
83.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
83.7%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q1 3:47
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
83.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:47
4TH & 6
OWN 41
+2
83.0%
Mike Rivers punt for 42 yds , Rontavius Groves returns for 2 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:3917% → 19%
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
83.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 5 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+4
82.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 4 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+5
83.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
82.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 7 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+2
80.9%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 42
-3
81.0%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
81.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 35 yds, downed at the Troy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7TD
1 play · 74 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
85.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 74 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:5615% → 16%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
84.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 14 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
84.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 8 yds to the TexSt 47 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Marcell Barbee) to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
84.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+10
84.1%
Calvin Hill run for 10 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
84.0%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q2 13:56
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
84.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
84.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:00
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
84.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Deshon Stoudemire at the Troy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 43 yds · 3:4085% → 84%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
84.7%
DK Billingsley run for 9 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+4
84.8%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the Troy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+29
84.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 29 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
85.6%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the TexSt 47Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-3
85.5%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Jordan Revels for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 13
50
+4
84.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 4 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q2 7:20
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
84.4%
Mike Rivers punt for 40 yds, downed at the TexSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0116% → 15%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
84.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TexSt 8Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 8
OWN 8
0
84.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 8
OWN 8
0
85.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:19
4TH & 8
OWN 8
+5
85.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 45 yds , Deshon Stoudemire returns for 5 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11FG
7 plays · 42 yds · 3:3186% → 86%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
85.7%
DK Billingsley run for 9 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+2
85.8%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+24
85.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Michael Vice for 24 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
85.9%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+3
85.9%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the TexSt 6Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 3
OPP 6
0
85.4%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:48
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+24
86.0%
Brooks Buce 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:2614% → 25%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
85.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 10 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
85.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Titus Lyons for 1 yd to the TexSt 36Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+4
85.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 4 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+11
85.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 11 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
84.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 11 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
84.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 11 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
83.7%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+24
82.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Titus Lyons for 24 yds to the Troy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
75.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13END OF HALF
6 plays · 56 yds · 0:1979% → 81%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
79.3%
DK Billingsley run for 7 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+4
79.8%
Gunnar Watson run for 4 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
80.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 2
50
+37
80.8%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 37 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 1:3022% → 34%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
78.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TexSt 31Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+5
78.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 5 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+64
66.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 64 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3968% → 66%
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.0%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
67.8%
Jarret Doege run for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 21Similar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+12
66.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kimani Vidal for 12 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q3 11:44
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
65.5%
Mike Rivers punt for 56 yds, downed at the TexSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0734% → 34%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
65.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 3 yds to the TexSt 14Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+1
65.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TexSt 15Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+1
66.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 1 yd to the TexSt 16Similar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 5
OWN 16
0
66.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0567% → 63%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
67.2%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
65.7%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 5 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
66.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:32
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
63.3%
Mike Rivers punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Rontavius Groves at the TexSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3838% → 38%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
61.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-1
62.4%
Layne Hatcher run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
63.9%
Layne Hatcher run for no gain to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 6:54
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
61.8%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:4161% → 53%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-21
61.0%
VIDAL, Kimani rush up the middle for a gain of 21 yards to the TRO39 (SPEARS, Tory). PENALTY TRO Personal Foul on BUTLER, Deandre enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the TRO18 to the TRO9 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 19
OWN 9
+5
60.4%
DK Billingsley run for 5 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 14
OWN 14
+17
60.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 17 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+22
61.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 22 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-12
65.3%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Nico Ezidore and Jordan Revels for a loss of 12 yards to the Troy 41Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 22
OWN 41
0
57.7%
Gunnar Watson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 22
OWN 41
+8
56.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Tez Johnson for 8 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q3 3:13
4TH & 14
OWN 49
0
53.0%
Mike Rivers punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:1248% → 48%
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
52.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+5
52.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the TexSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
51.5%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+3
52.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 3 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q3 3:13
3RD & 7
OWN 21
0
53.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:01
4TH & 7
OWN 21
0
52.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 58 yds, downed at the Troy 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 4:1653% → 79%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
52.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 9 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+16
54.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 16 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
55.8%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+13
52.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Marcus Rogers for 13 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
57.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+15
57.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Devonte Ross for 15 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
59.0%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
58.8%
Tez Johnson run for 3 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+23
78.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 23 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 3:1127% → 29%
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
73.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 4 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+15
73.5%
TROY Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Javon Solomon) to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
71.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
68.9%
Layne Hatcher run for no gain to the TexSt 37Similar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+6
74.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 6 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 8:30
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
71.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3277% → 73%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
76.9%
Jarret Doege pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
76.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 6
OWN 31
-3
75.7%
Jarret Doege sacked by Nico Ezidore and Jordan Revels for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 28Similar
Q4 6:53
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
72.9%
Mike Rivers punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2531% → 29%
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
68.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 8 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 2
OWN 41
-3
65.4%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 38Similar
Q4 6:53
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
67.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:28
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
70.8%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 25END OF GAME
11 plays · 31 yds · 5:2877% → 96%
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
76.8%
Kimani Vidal run for 6 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+4
77.1%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
77.2%
DK Billingsley run for 7 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+2
79.0%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+3
78.7%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
89.5%
DK Billingsley run for 7 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+2
89.9%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+2
89.2%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
90.3%
DK Billingsley run for no gain to the TexSt 47Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
96.0%
[NHSG] Kneel down by DOEGE, Jarret at TXS49 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:45
Jarret Doege pass complete to RaJae' Johnson for 23 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)
+20
TD · Q3 13:23
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 64 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)
-12.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:42
Timeout TEXAS STATE, clock 01:42
+11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com