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ULM

UL Monroe 34 at South Alabama 41

USA
2022 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2022 · Hancock Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-3.4USA 67.9%Calum Sutherland 40 yd FG GOODAWAY 20 - HOME 17 · Q2 1:45
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Q2 1:45 · Calum Sutherland 40 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 89Pregame prior+21.5Home team on offense−5.2Score differential−2.4Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Time remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:16: Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 25 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK) — ULM win probability +10.5 pts (now 33%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:01: Marco Lee run for 4 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +7.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:49: Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 20 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +6.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:36: Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 24 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK) — USA win probability +7.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:00: Chandler Rogers pass complete to Zach Rasmussen for 7 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK) — ULM win probability +5.3 pts (now 9%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9ULM made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 12:47ULM 4th & 12 at ULM 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:51USA 4th & 4 at ULM 16, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.1%−<0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    84.6%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:00ULM 4th & 14 at ULM 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−0.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:42USA 4th & 13 at USA 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:57ULM 4th & 7 at USA 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    15.8%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:48USA 4th & 13 at ULM 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    80.6%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:22USA 4th & 13 at ULM 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    79.5%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:22ULM 4th & 1 at USA 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.4%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:45ULM 4th & 4 at USA 23, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.0%−0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    22.8%−4.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00USA 4th & 2 at ULM 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    71.6%−1.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    64.7%−8.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:31ULM 4th & 7 at ULM 42, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:51USA 4th & 3 at ULM 11, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.5%−0.4
    87% to make
    Punt
    84.8%−4.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:29ULM 4th & 6 at ULM 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:50ULM 4th & 15 at ULM 20, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:37USA 4th & 14 at ULM 49, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:41USA 4th & 6 at USA 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:41USA 4th & 6 at USA 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:00ULM 4th & 1 at USA 7, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%−0.6
    91% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−3.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ULM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 8:36ULM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:54USA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:16ULM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:01USA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:49USA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:36USA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:55USA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:52ULM Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.3%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:00ULM Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1END OF GAME
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:0061% → 69%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+19
60.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Lincoln Sefcik for 19 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
64.0%
Marco Lee run for 2 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+11
62.0%
Marco Lee run for 11 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
65.4%
Marco Lee run for 3 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+32
66.2%
Marco Lee run for 32 yds to the LaMon 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
69.3%
Marco Lee run for 3 yds to the LaMon 17Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+2
69.5%
Omni Wells run for 2 yds to the LaMon 15Similar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+7
66.2%
Marco Lee run for 7 yds to the LaMon 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
69.2%
C. Bradley takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
68.7%
C. Bradley takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:5514% → 14%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
86.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 4 yds to the LaMon 37Similar
Q1 14:42
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+1
86.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Alred Luke for 1 yd to the LaMon 38Similar
Q1 14:42
3RD & 5
OWN 38
-7
86.5%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Wy'Kevious Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the LaMon 31Similar
Q1 12:47
4TH & 12
OWN 31
+7
86.0%
Devyn McCormick punt for 49 yds , Caullin Lacy returns for 7 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:5686% → 85%
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
86.0%
Jaden Voisin run for 5 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+7
86.0%
La'Damian Webb run for 7 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
86.0%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Devin VoisinSimilar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
86.0%
Omni Wells run for 5 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+14
86.0%
Carter Bradley run for 14 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+20
86.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 20 yds to the LaMon 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
86.1%
Omni Wells run for 4 yds to the LaMon 18Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+2
86.1%
Omni Wells run for 2 yds to the LaMon 16Similar
Q1 12:47
3RD & 4
OPP 16
0
86.1%
Marco Lee run for no gain to the LaMon 16Similar
Q1 8:51
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+34
85.2%
Diego Guajardo 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 4TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
84.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 75 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4284% → 85%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.0%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jalen WayneSimilar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
84.0%
Omni Wells run for 11 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
84.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 64 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:5415% → 16%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.0%
Malik Jackson run for 2 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
84.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Bugs Mortimer for 15 yds to the LaMon 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
84.7%
Malik Jackson run for 1 yd to the LaMon 41Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+4
84.8%
Chandler Rogers run for 4 yds to the LaMon 45Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 7
OWN 45
-7
84.8%
Chandler Rogers sacked by Brock Higdon for a loss of 7 yards to the LaMon 38Similar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 14
OWN 38
0
84.5%
Devyn McCormick punt for 62 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1884% → 83%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+2
84.0%
Omni Wells run for 2 yds to the SAlab 17Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 13
OWN 17
0
83.9%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Devin VoisinSimilar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
83.7%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Omni WellsSimilar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
83.1%
Jack Brooks punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Tyrone Howell at the SAlab 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 8FG
12 plays · 42 yds · 5:4517% → 20%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
83.2%
Chandler Rogers run for no gain to the SAlab 49Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+18
83.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 18 yds to the SAlab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
83.0%
Chandler Rogers run for 1 yd to the SAlab 30Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+5
83.0%
Andrew Henry run for 5 yds to the SAlab 25Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+6
83.2%
Chandler Rogers run for 6 yds to the SAlab 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
82.9%
Chandler Rogers run for 2 yds to the SAlab 17Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+3
81.2%
Malik Jackson run for 3 yds to the SAlab 14Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+6
81.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Rylan Green for 6 yds to the SAlab 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
81.2%
Malik Jackson run for 2 yds to the SAlab 6Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
81.2%
Chandler Rogers run for 1 yd to the SAlab 7Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
81.6%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Deuce MayberrySimilar
Q2 12:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
80.0%
Calum Sutherland 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:2682% → 79%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
82.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 13 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
82.1%
Marco Lee run for no gain to the LaMon 36Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
82.1%
Marco Lee run for 3 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q2 12:48
3RD & 7
OPP 33
-6
81.9%
Carter Bradley sacked by Wembley Mailei for a loss of 6 yards to the LaMon 39 Carter Bradley fumbled, recovered by LaMon Jaden Voisin , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 12:48
4TH & 13
OPP 39
0
80.4%
Jack Brooks punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 13
OPP 39
0
79.4%
Jack Brooks punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 10TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 4:0622% → 33%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
78.2%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Alred LukeSimilar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
78.5%
Malik Jackson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 45Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+6
78.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Andrew Henry for 6 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+6
78.6%
Andrew Henry run for 6 yds to the SAlab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
77.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 15 yds to the SAlab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
77.2%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Tyrone HowellSimilar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+3
77.4%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 3 yds to the SAlab 25Similar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+25
66.9%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 25 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11TD
6 plays · 79 yds · 2:0769% → 80%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
69.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 2 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+44
69.1%
Omni Wells run for 44 yds to the LaMon 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+17
72.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 17 yds to the LaMon 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 18
OPP 24
+20
72.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 20 yds to the LaMon 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
79.8%
Marco Lee run for 4 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 12FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 2:1625% → 32%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
75.0%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Bugs Mortimer for 11 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
74.3%
Andrew Henry run for no gain to the LaMon 36Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+35
74.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jevin Frett for 35 yds to the SAlab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
72.1%
Malik Jackson run for 2 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+4
69.7%
Malik Jackson run for 4 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 4
OPP 23
0
70.3%
Malik Jackson run for no gain to the SAlab 23Similar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+40
67.9%
Calum Sutherland 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 48 yds · 1:3969% → 67%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
69.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 11 yds to the LaMon 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
70.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 16 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
71.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 9 yds to the LaMon 23Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+4
71.4%
Omni Wells run for 4 yds to the LaMon 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
71.4%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Caullin LacySimilar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+4
71.4%
Carter Bradley run for 4 yds to the LaMon 15Similar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+4
70.1%
Carter Bradley run for 4 yds to the LaMon 11Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 11
0
67.4%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Devin VoisinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1172% → 83%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
71.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 9 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
73.6%
Omni Wells run for no gain to the SAlab 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+46
72.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 46 yds to the LaMon 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
75.7%
Marco Lee run for no gain to the LaMon 20Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
82.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 20 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 15INT
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:4518% → 18%
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+10
82.4%
Chandler Rogers run for 10 yds to the LaMon 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
81.7%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Zach RasmussenSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
80.8%
Chandler Rogers run for no gain to the LaMon 38Similar
Q3 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
81.8%
Chandler Rogers pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16TD
2 plays · 41 yds · 0:2283% → 90%
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
83.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 17 yds to the LaMon 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
90.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 24 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:5810% → 9%
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
89.8%
Malik Jackson run for 10 yds to the LaMon 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
89.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Bugs Mortimer for 2 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+1
89.3%
Malik Jackson run for 1 yd to the LaMon 42Similar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 7
OWN 42
0
89.7%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Bugs MortimerSimilar
Q3 8:31
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
90.7%
Devyn McCormick punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18FG
10 plays · 67 yds · 4:4090% → 94%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
89.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 4 yds to the SAlab 18Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 14
OWN 18
+8
89.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 8 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+10
89.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 10 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
89.8%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jalen WayneSimilar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
89.6%
Omni Wells run for 2 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+44
89.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 44 yds to the LaMon 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
90.5%
Omni Wells run for no gain to the LaMon 18Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+3
90.5%
Omni Wells run for 3 yds to the LaMon 15Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+4
90.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 4 yds to the LaMon 11Similar
Q3 3:51
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+29
93.9%
Diego Guajardo 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:228% → 7%
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
92.4%
Malik Jackson run for 9 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
91.4%
Chandler Rogers pass incomplete to Bugs MortimerSimilar
Q3 3:51
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
91.9%
Malik Jackson run for no gain to the LaMon 34Similar
Q3 2:29
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+26
93.4%
Devyn McCormick punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 45 , Caullin Lacy returns for 26 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:3495% → 99%
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
95.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for no gain to the SAlab 45Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+19
95.2%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jalen Wayne for 19 yds to the LaMon 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
95.3%
Marco Lee run for 8 yds to the LaMon 28Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+8
95.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 8 yds to the LaMon 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
95.5%
Marco Lee run for 3 yds to the LaMon 17Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+12
96.1%
Marco Lee run for 12 yds to the LaMon 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.8%
Marco Lee run for 5 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 2:051% → 1%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.2%
Chandler Rogers run for no gain to the LaMon 25Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.2%
Andrew Henry run for 4 yds to the LaMon 29Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-9
99.2%
Chandler Rogers sacked by A.J. DeShazor Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the LaMon 20Similar
Q4 12:50
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
99.4%
Devyn McCormick punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 2:1399% → 99%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
99.1%
Omni Wells run for 2 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+5
99.0%
Omni Wells run for 5 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 7
OPP 42
-7
99.0%
Carter Bradley sacked by Tristan Driggers for a loss of 7 yards to the LaMon 49Similar
Q4 10:37
4TH & 14
OPP 49
0
99.0%
Jack Brooks punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Wembley Mailei at the LaMon 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23TD
2 plays · 90 yds · 0:451% → 4%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
99.5%
Chandler Rogers run for 7 yds to the LaMon 17Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+83
96.3%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 83 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:0697% → 97%
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+16
96.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Voisin for 16 yds to the SAlab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
96.8%
Omni Wells run for 4 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 14
OWN 27
0
96.7%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Jalen WayneSimilar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 14
OWN 27
+8
96.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 8 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q4 7:41
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
96.9%
Jack Brooks punt for 37 ydsSimilar
Q4 7:41
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
96.9%
Jack Brooks punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tyrone Howell at the LaMon 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 25TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 2:413% → 9%
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+41
97.1%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jevin Frett for 41 yds to the SAlab 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
96.6%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 15 yds to the SAlab 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
96.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Malik Jackson for 4 yds to the SAlab 20Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 14
OPP 20
+6
96.7%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 6 yds to the SAlab 14Similar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+7
96.8%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jevin Frett for 7 yds to the SAlab 7Similar
Q4 5:00
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+7
91.5%
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Zach Rasmussen for 7 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:16
Chandler Rogers pass complete to Tyrone Howell for 25 yds for a TD, (Calum Sutherland KICK)
-10.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+8.5
TD · Q2 4:01
Marco Lee run for 4 yds for a TD, (Diego Guajardo KICK)
+7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com