Try the model
JMU

James Madison 38 at Georgia Southern 45

GASO
2022 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2022 · Allen E. Paulson Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · GASO
modelGASO aheadJMU aheadconfidence bandkey playGASO scoreJMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · [NHSG] Kneel down by GS at GS22 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:48: Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Amare Jones for 75 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK) — GASO win probability +12.6 pts (now 34%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:59: Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jalen White for 37 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK) — GASO win probability +28.8 pts (now 76%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:24: Todd Centeio pass complete to Reggie Brown for 28 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +30.1 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 2:28: Todd Centeio pass complete to Terrance Greene Jr. for 25 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +60.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:10: Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 22 yds for a TD JMU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chauncey Logan) to the JMads 0, (J. White Run For Two-point Conversion) — GASO win probability +36.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GASO made the numbers' call on 8 of 11JMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:12GASO 4th & 3 at GASO 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:01GASO 4th & 8 at GASO 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:50GASO 4th & 12 at GASO 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:58JMU 4th & 18 at JMU 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−1.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:33JMU 4th & 8 at GASO 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−4.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:09GASO 4th & 13 at JMU 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.9
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:29JMU 4th & 4 at GASO 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    70.1%−0.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    68.7%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00GASO 4th & 3 at JMU 22, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.1%−0.7
    72% to make
    Punt
    26.4%−7.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:39JMU 4th & 3 at GASO 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    67.4%−0.7
    79% to make
    Punt
    59.9%−8.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:31GASO 4th & 7 at GASO 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:04JMU 4th & 13 at JMU 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−4.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:39GASO 4th & 3 at JMU 3, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.6%−2.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    24.6%−14.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:38JMU 4th & 3 at JMU 40, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:52GASO 4th & 9 at JMU 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−1.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    65.4%−10.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:22JMU 4th & 18 at JMU 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−3.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:21GASO 4th & 9 at JMU 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%−1.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:53GASO 4th & 6 at JMU 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−1.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    54.4%−21.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:17JMU 4th & 9 at JMU 26, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.0%−2.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:28GASO 4th & 10 at JMU 47, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.6%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.7%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GASO made the numbers' call on 5 of 5JMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:33JMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:55JMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:48GASO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:58GASO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:00JMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:48GASO Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:59GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:24JMU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.4%−1.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:28JMU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.0%−1.9
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:10GASO Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    82.2%−1.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    83.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASODrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:4823% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
22.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jalen White for 11 yds to the GeoSo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
22.7%
Jalen White run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+6
22.7%
Jalen White run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
22.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:12
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
23.6%
Anthony Beck II punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:3976% → 76%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
23.6%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 5 yds to the JMads 25Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+51
23.6%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 51 yds to the GeoSo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
23.4%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+3
23.4%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+6
23.5%
Todd Centeio run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
23.4%
JMU Penalty, False Start (Cole Potts) to the GeoSo 18Similar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 15
OPP 18
+1
23.4%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 17Similar
Q1 13:12
2ND & 14
OPP 17
0
23.5%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 14
OPP 17
+17
23.7%
Todd Centeio run for 17 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2424% → 24%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
24.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 4 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
24.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 6
OWN 32
-2
23.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jalen White for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q1 8:01
4TH & 8
OWN 30
+12
23.8%
Anthony Beck II punt for 42 yds , Josh Sarratt returns for 12 yds to the JMads 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 4INT
6 plays · 52 yds · 2:2076% → 76%
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
23.6%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Reggie Brown for 20 yds to the GeoSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
23.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Reggie Brown for 14 yds to the GeoSo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
23.5%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 15 yds to the GeoSo 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
23.5%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+3
23.5%
Latrele Palmer run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 8Similar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
23.8%
Todd Centeio pass intercepted for a 1ST down GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Personal Foul (Anthony Wilson) to the GeoSo 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5125% → 24%
Q1 5:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
24.6%
Jalen White run for no gain to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-2
24.3%
Kyle Vantrease run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q1 5:41
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
24.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 5 yds to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q1 3:50
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
24.4%
Anthony Beck II punt for 59 yds, downed at the JMads 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 6TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 3:5575% → 80%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
24.7%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+8
24.8%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Drew Painter for 8 yds to the JMads 26Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+23
24.6%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 23 yds to the JMads 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
24.0%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Reggie Brown for 6 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+2
23.9%
Latrele Palmer run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+6
24.3%
Todd Centeio run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
24.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Reggie Brown for 12 yds to the GeoSo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
24.1%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for no gain to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+12
24.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Terrance Greene Jr. for 12 yds to the GeoSo 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
20.2%
Todd Centeio run for 13 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 7TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0722% → 29%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
21.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Amare Jones for 1 yd to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
21.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+27
21.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 27 yds to the JMads 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+33
22.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 33 yds to the JMads 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
22.8%
Gerald Green run for 1 yd to the JMads 13Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
28.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Amare Jones for 13 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 8PUNT TD
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:4674% → 66%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
26.1%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for no gain to the JMads 20Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
26.1%
Latrele Palmer run for 1 yd to the JMads 21Similar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-9
26.4%
Todd Centeio sacked by Justin Ellis and Jalen Jackson for a loss of 9 yards to the JMads 12Similar
Q2 10:58
4TH & 18
OWN 12
0
33.6%
Joshua Thompson 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Alex Raynor Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 9FG
11 plays · 78 yds · 3:2168% → 70%
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
32.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Reggie Brown for 11 yds to the JMads 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
32.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 9 yds to the JMads 33Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+7
31.4%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 7 yds to the JMads 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
31.2%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 3 yds to the JMads 43Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
30.8%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive Holding (Tyler Bride) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
30.0%
Latrele Palmer run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 20Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+9
30.0%
Latrele Palmer run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
30.0%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+2
30.0%
Todd Centeio run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 9Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
30.6%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:33
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+26
30.1%
Camden Wise 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:2431% → 32%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
31.4%
Jalen White run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+29
31.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Amare Jones for 29 yds to the JMads 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
33.8%
Jalen White run for 4 yds to the JMads 41Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 6
OPP 41
-2
33.9%
Jalen White run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMads 43Similar
Q2 7:33
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
33.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:33
4TH & 8
OPP 43
-5
31.5%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the JMads 48Similar
Q2 5:09
4TH & 13
OPP 48
0
31.7%
Anthony Beck II punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Josh Sarratt at the JMads 9Similar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
32.3%
JMU Penalty, False Start ( Yards) to the JMads 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 11DOWNS
12 plays · 60 yds · 3:4368% → 71%
Q2 5:09
1ST & 14
OWN 5
+4
32.3%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 4 yds to the JMads 9Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+23
32.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Reggie Brown for 23 yds to the JMads 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
31.1%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 5 yds to the JMads 37Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+11
30.5%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 11 yds to the JMads 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
31.0%
Todd Centeio sacked by Anthony Wilson for a loss of 1 yard to the JMads 47Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+16
31.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Drew Painter for 16 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
30.2%
Todd Centeio run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 2
OPP 29
0
29.9%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:29
4TH & 4
OPP 31
0
30.8%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 2
OPP 29
-2
28.7%
Todd Centeio run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12INT
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:1133% → 35%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
33.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 10 yds to the GeoSo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
35.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 13INT
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:3468% → 70%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
31.8%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Latrele Palmer for 8 yds to the JMads 36Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+5
30.6%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 5 yds to the JMads 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
30.3%
Todd Centeio pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14MISSED FG
9 plays · 17 yds · 0:4437% → 32%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
36.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
36.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+10
35.7%
JMU Penalty, Defensive Holding (Chris Chukwuneke) to the JMads 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
37.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Amare Jones for 6 yds to the JMads 23Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 4
OPP 23
0
37.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+1
33.7%
Jalen White run for 1 yd to the JMads 22Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+39
32.2%
Alex Raynor 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 15TD
3 plays · 36 yds · 1:0070% → 79%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+21
29.6%
Latrele Palmer run for 21 yds to the GeoSo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
28.7%
Latrele Palmer run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 10Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+10
21.1%
Todd Centeio run for 10 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
33.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Amare Jones for 75 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 39 yds · 3:0370% → 67%
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
30.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Devin Ravenel for 16 yds to the GeoSo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
30.0%
Latrele Palmer run for 16 yds to the GeoSo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-7
29.0%
Todd Centeio sacked by Derrick Canteen for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 17
OPP 32
+14
30.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Zach Horton for 14 yds to the GeoSo 18Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
31.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Zach Horton for no gain to the GeoSo 18Similar
Q3 10:39
4TH & 3
OPP 18
0
33.5%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:0835% → 36%
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-4
35.4%
Gerald Green run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 14Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 14
OWN 14
0
35.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 14
OWN 14
+29
33.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 29 yds to the GeoSo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
38.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
37.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 3 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
37.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:31
4TH & 7
OWN 46
+3
36.2%
Anthony Beck II punt for 43 yds , Josh Sarratt returns for 3 yds to the JMads 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2766% → 63%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
34.1%
Latrele Palmer run for 2 yds to the JMads 16Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 8
OWN 16
-5
34.1%
Latrele Palmer run for a loss of 5 yards to the JMads 11Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 13
OWN 11
0
35.4%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:04
4TH & 13
OWN 11
+7
37.1%
Sam Clark punt for 40 yds , Amare Jones returns for 7 yds to the JMads 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 20FG
4 plays · 41 yds · 1:2544% → 49%
Q3 7:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
43.5%
OJ Arnold run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMads 7Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
43.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 4 yds to the JMads 3Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
41.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
48.7%
Alex Raynor 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5559% → 57%
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
41.4%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+7
42.0%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 7 yds to the JMads 40Similar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
39.6%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:38
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
42.9%
Sam Clark punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Amare Jones at the GeoSo 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 22TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 2:3946% → 76%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
46.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Amare Jones for 7 yds to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+8
47.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 8 yds to the GeoSo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
47.3%
Jalen White run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+8
47.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 8 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+4
49.0%
Jalen White run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
49.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
48.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+21
46.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 21 yds to the JMads 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
75.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jalen White for 37 yds for a TD, (Alex Raynor KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 23FUMBLE
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:4633% → 31%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
67.0%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Percy Agyei-Obese for 3 yds to the JMads 28Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+17
69.0%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Devin Ravenel for 17 yds Devin Ravenel fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Tyler BrideSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 24FG
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:2179% → 80%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
78.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 20 yds to the JMads 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
79.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
81.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jalen White for 1 yd to the JMads 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
80.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+41
80.0%
Alex Raynor 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:3019% → 16%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.6%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 2 yds to the JMads 27Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
80.2%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 7 yds to the JMads 34Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
79.1%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 9 yds to the JMads 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
78.4%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 2 yds to the JMads 45Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
78.0%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 8
OWN 45
-10
79.0%
CENTEIO, Todd scrambles to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the JMU50 (JACKSON, Jalen). PENALTY JMU Holding on WYATT, Tyshawn enforced 10 yards from the JMU45 to the JMU35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 18
OWN 35
0
81.7%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:22
4TH & 18
OWN 35
0
84.1%
Sam Clark punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Amare Jones at the GeoSo 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 26PUNT
12 plays · 39 yds · 5:0183% → 89%
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
82.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+4
82.3%
Jalen White run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+18
81.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 18 yds to the GeoSo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
83.8%
Jalen White run for no gain to the GeoSo 39Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
83.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
50
+10
84.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 10 yds to the JMads 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-15
84.3%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Personal Foul (Derwin Burgess Jr.) to the JMads 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
84.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jalen White for no gain to the JMads 45Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
84.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+6
83.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 6 yds to the JMads 39Similar
Q4 12:22
4TH & 4
OPP 39
-5
82.6%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the JMads 44Similar
Q4 7:21
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
89.2%
Anthony Beck II punt for 35 yds, downed at the JMads 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 27TD
3 plays · 91 yds · 0:5710% → 43%
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+41
90.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 41 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
50
+22
87.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Reggie Brown for 22 yds to the GeoSo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
57.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Reggie Brown for 28 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 28FG
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:2772% → 91%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
72.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 11 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
72.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jalen White for 17 yds to the JMads 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+38
76.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 38 yds to the JMads 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
77.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 4 yds to the JMads 6Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
85.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
83.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
90.5%
Alex Raynor 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 29TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:2514% → 71%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.6%
Todd Centeio run for 1 yd to the JMads 26Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
86.5%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
91.1%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:17
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+20
91.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 20 yds to the JMads 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
88.7%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+8
89.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Devin Ravenel for 8 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+21
88.9%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Terrance Greene Jr. for 21 yds to the GeoSo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
28.6%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Terrance Greene Jr. for 25 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 30TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:1851% → 97%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
50.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 15 yds to the GeoSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
55.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
52.5%
JMU Penalty, Offsides (Jamare Edwards) to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
56.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+8
54.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Marcus Sanders Jr. for 8 yds to the JMads 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
57.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
56.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
52.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:28
4TH & 10
OPP 47
+14
50.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Khaleb Hood for 14 yds to the JMads 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
60.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 11 yds to the JMads 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
97.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 22 yds for a TD JMU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chauncey Logan) to the JMads 0, (J. White Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 31INT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:449% → 11%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
91.2%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
91.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Percy Agyei-Obese for 8 yds to the JMads 46Similar
Q4 0:24
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+16
91.8%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Terrance Greene Jr. for 16 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
89.5%
Todd Centeio pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 32END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
98.1%
[NHSG] Kneel down by GS at GS22 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:28
Todd Centeio pass complete to Terrance Greene Jr. for 25 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)
-60.3
TD · Q4 1:10
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 22 yds for a TD JMU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chauncey Logan) to the JMads 0, (J. White Run For Two-point Conversion)
+36.2
TD · Q4 6:24
Todd Centeio pass complete to Reggie Brown for 28 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)
-30.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com