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APP

App State 24 at Texas State 36

TXST
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:14 · Chase Brice pass complete to Nate Noel for 1 yd to the TexSt 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 169Pregame prior−3.1Home team on offense+30.7Score differential+12.3Garbage-time factor+7.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+15.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+5.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 6:46: Seth Keller 33 yd FG GOOD — TXST win probability +15.0 pts (now 50%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:40: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 23 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +13.8 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:06: Tory Spears 94 Yd Interception Return (Seth Keller Run for Two-Point Conversion) — TXST win probability +24.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:37: Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 12 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +10.8 pts (now 15%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:02: Henry Pearson 2 Yd pass from Chase Brice (Chase Brice Pass to Christan Horn for Two-Point Conversion) — APP win probability +11.3 pts (now 16%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6APP made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 7:18APP 4th & 1 at APP 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    84.8%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:44APP 4th & 9 at APP 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:26APP 4th & 1 at APP 34, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:46TXST 4th & 1 at APP 16, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.1%−3.0
    81% to make
    Punt
    30.2%−10.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:02TXST 4th & 21 at TXST 47, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−3.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:00APP 4th & 16 at APP 8, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−8.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:06APP 4th & 4 at TXST 12, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.0%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    16.6%−0.4
    86% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−9.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:37APP 4th & 1 at TXST 12, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%−1.9
    86% to make
    Punt
    -4.9%−8.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:04TXST 4th & 9 at APP 12, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    88.9%−5.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00APP 4th & 1 at TXST 46, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%−1.6
    23% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:44TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 32, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:45APP 4th & 14 at TXST 39, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    6.6%
    36% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:08TXST 4th & 17 at APP 19, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−1.0
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    93.4%−2.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:14APP 4th & 5 at TXST 5, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%−0.4
    92% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−1.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:42TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 6, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4APP made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 4:54TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:20TXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:40TXST Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:06TXST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    98.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:37APP Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:02APP Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    8.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1INT
12 plays · 71 yds · 4:428% → 11%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
8.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
8.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 5 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
8.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 6 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
8.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 7 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+5
8.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 5 yds to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
8.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the AppSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
8.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Lincoln PareSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+17
8.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 17 yds to the AppSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
8.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 12 yds to the AppSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
8.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hatcher,Layne pass incomplete short right to Barbee,Marcell PENALTY APP Pass Interference (Tucker,Milan) 15 yards from APP19 to APP04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
10.5%
Layne Hatcher pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2DOWNS
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:0090% → 89%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
10.2%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Miller GibbsSimilar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
10.2%
Nate Noel run for 6 yds to the AppSt 26Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+7
10.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Nate Noel for 7 yds to the AppSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
10.2%
Daetrich Harrington run for 2 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+10
10.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 10 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+1
10.1%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the AppSt 42Similar
Q1 7:18
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
11.4%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the AppSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3TD
6 plays · 42 yds · 2:2412% → 15%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+24
11.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 24 yds to the AppSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+13
12.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 13 yds to the AppSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
12.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the AppSt 2Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
12.0%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the AppSt 2Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
15.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:0285% → 83%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
14.7%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Kaedin RobinsonSimilar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+1
14.8%
Daetrich Harrington run for 1 yd to the AppSt 9Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 9
OWN 9
-4
15.0%
PENALTY APP False Start (Davis,Dashaun) 4 yards from APP09 to APP05. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 13
OWN 5
+4
15.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 4 yds to the AppSt 9Similar
Q1 2:44
4TH & 9
OWN 9
0
16.8%
Clayton Howell punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5TD
12 plays · 48 yds · 3:2417% → 25%
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
17.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+11
17.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Titus Lyons for 11 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 20
OPP 47
+20
16.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 20 yds to the AppSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
17.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the AppSt 23Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+5
17.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the AppSt 18Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+1
19.3%
Layne Hatcher run for 1 yd to the AppSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
19.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+5
19.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hatcher,Layne pass incomplete short right to Barbee,Marcell broken up by Jones Jr.,Steven PENALTY APP Offside (Haigler,Kevon) 5 yards from APP17 to APP12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+5
19.6%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (5 Yards) to the AppSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
19.6%
PENALTY APP UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (McKnight,DeShawn) 3 yards from APP05 to APP02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
25.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 2 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
24.6%
PENALTY APP UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Paillant,Hansky) 15 yards from TXST35 to TXST50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5477% → 74%
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-13
22.9%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (-13 Yards) to the AppSt 14Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+13
23.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Nate Noel for 13 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
23.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Nate Noel for 7 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
25.7%
Clayton Howell punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 5:4028% → 50%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
27.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 2 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+11
27.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 11 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
28.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hatcher,Layne pass incomplete short right to Banks,Javen PENALTY APP Offside (Parker,Andrew) 5 yards from TXST43 to TXST48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 5
OWN 48
+15
28.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 15 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
28.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Jahmyl Jeter for 1 yd to the AppSt 36Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+8
28.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 8 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+3
31.8%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 3 yds to the AppSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
32.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Titus LyonsSimilar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
32.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 3 yds to the AppSt 22Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+6
31.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 6 yds to the AppSt 16Similar
Q2 6:46
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+33
50.1%
Seth Keller 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8FUMBLE
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:2661% → 58%
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
39.5%
Daetrich Harrington run for 9 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 1
OWN 39
0
38.0%
Daetrich Harrington run for no gain to the AppSt 39Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+4
38.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 4 yds to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
39.1%
Chase Brice run for 4 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+6
42.5%
Nate Noel run for 6 yds to the TexSt 47 Nate Noel fumbled, recovered by AppSt Jarron MorrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:0956% → 56%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
56.0%
Lincoln Pare run for 9 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+2
55.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
56.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Charles BrownSimilar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
55.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Chandler Speights for 3 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q2 2:02
4TH & 21
OWN 47
0
56.3%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tyler Page at the AppSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · -6 yds · 1:0249% → 46%
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-6
50.6%
Chase Brice sacked by Levi Bell for a loss of 6 yards to the AppSt 8Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 16
OWN 8
+2
52.0%
Chase Brice run for 2 yds to the AppSt 10Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 14
OWN 10
+3
51.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 3 yds to the AppSt 13Similar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 11
OWN 13
-5
52.7%
PENALTY APP False Start (Favors,Jordan) 5 yards from APP13 to APP08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 16
OWN 8
+17
54.0%
Clayton Howell punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AppSt 33 , Ashtyn Hawkins returns for 17 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11TD
3 plays · 33 yds · 0:2064% → 76%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
63.6%
Shotgun Hatcher,Layne pass incomplete short right to Banks,Javen PENALTY APP Holding (Jones Jr.,Steven) 10 yards from APP33 to APP23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
62.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Charles BrownSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
76.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 23 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12FG
10 plays · 65 yds · 0:3432% → 27%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+16
68.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christan Horn for 16 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
68.2%
Chase Brice run for 1 yd to the AppSt 38Similar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
66.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Nate Noel for 3 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
65.7%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Henry PearsonSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+24
66.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 24 yds to the TexSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+30
73.4%
Michael Hughes 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13INT TD
11 plays · 63 yds · 4:5429% → 6%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.6%
Ahmani Marshall run for 2 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
70.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Ahmani Marshall for 4 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+23
69.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 23 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
68.6%
Ahmani Marshall run for 2 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+9
68.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Ahmani Marshall for 9 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+17
67.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christan Horn for 17 yds to the TexSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
66.8%
Ahmani Marshall run for 1 yd to the TexSt 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
66.8%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Michael HetzelSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+5
69.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Daetrich Harrington for 5 yds to the TexSt 12Similar
Q3 10:06
4TH & 4
OPP 12
-94
93.7%
Tory Spears 94 Yd Interception Return (Seth Keller Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 2:234% → 15%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
96.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to David Larkins for 6 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+55
96.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 55 yds to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
95.5%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Nate NoelSimilar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+6
95.5%
Nate Noel run for 6 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+3
95.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Nate Noel for 3 yds to the TexSt 12Similar
Q3 7:37
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+12
84.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 12 yds for a TD, (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 6:3388% → 95%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TexSt 26Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+30
87.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 30 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
87.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 8 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+1
87.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the AppSt 35Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+8
87.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 8 yds to the AppSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
87.6%
Jahmyl Jeter run for no gain to the AppSt 27Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+7
87.6%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 7 yds to the AppSt 20Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+7
87.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 7 yds to the AppSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
87.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the AppSt 12Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
87.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 9
OPP 12
0
87.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q3 1:04
4TH & 9
OPP 12
+29
95.1%
Seth Keller 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
95.4%
PENALTY APP UNR: Unnecessary Roughness 15 yards from TXST35 to TXST50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:025% → 16%
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 5 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q3 1:04
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+15
95.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 15 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
95.2%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Dalton StromanSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
95.9%
Chase Brice run for 6 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+3
96.0%
Ahmani Marshall run for 3 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+6
96.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christan Horn for 6 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
95.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christan Horn for 12 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+25
95.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 25 yds to the TexSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
95.2%
Ahmani Marshall run for 1 yd to the TexSt 2Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
95.4%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Dashaun DavisSimilar
Q4 13:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.1%
Henry Pearson 2 Yd pass from Chase Brice (Chase Brice Pass to Christan Horn for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:1790% → 92%
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
89.7%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the TexSt 28Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+1
89.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Titus Lyons for 1 yd to the TexSt 27Similar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 11
OWN 27
+5
89.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 5 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q4 10:44
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
91.7%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tyler Page at the AppSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:5911% → 7%
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
88.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Nate Noel for 6 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+2
88.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Nate Noel for 2 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+3
88.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Nate Noel for 3 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
88.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Tyler Page for 4 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
86.9%
Chase Brice sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 39Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 14
OPP 39
0
88.1%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Christan HornSimilar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 14
OPP 39
0
89.1%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Ahmani MarshallSimilar
Q4 7:45
4TH & 14
OPP 39
0
93.1%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Tyler PageSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 2:3795% → 98%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
94.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+4
94.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 4 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+42
95.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 42 yds to the AppSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
96.1%
Lincoln Pare run for no gain to the AppSt 12Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+1
96.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the AppSt 11Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 9
OPP 11
-8
96.8%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Caden Sullivan for a loss of 8 yards to the AppSt 19Similar
Q4 5:08
4TH & 17
OPP 19
+37
98.1%
Seth Keller 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 46 yds · 1:451% → 1%
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
99.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Nate Noel for 7 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+5
98.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 5 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
98.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Eli Wilson for 10 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+24
98.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christan Horn for 24 yds to the TexSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
98.9%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Nate NoelSimilar
Q4 3:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
98.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Eli Wilson for 1 yd to the TexSt 5Similar
Q4 3:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.7%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Miller GibbsSimilar
Q4 3:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
98.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Nate Noel for 1 yd to the TexSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:32100% → 100%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
99.5%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 12
OWN 4
0
99.5%
Jahmyl Jeter run for no gain to the TexSt 4Similar
Q4 3:14
3RD & 12
OWN 4
+2
99.5%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the TexSt 6Similar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 10
OWN 6
+14
99.6%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 33 , Tyler Page returns for 14 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22TD
3 plays · 33 yds · 0:421% → 3%
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
99.2%
Chase Brice run for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+26
99.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 26 yds to the TexSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 3 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:06
Tory Spears 94 Yd Interception Return (Seth Keller Run for Two-Point Conversion)
+24.8
FG · Q2 6:46
Seth Keller 33 yd FG GOOD
+15
TD · Q2 0:40
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 23 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)
+13.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com