Try the model
TXST

Texas State 13 at James Madison 40

JMU
2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · Bridgeforth Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · JMU
modelJMU aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playJMU scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGSAFETYTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:57 · Seamus O'Kelly punt for 68 yds, downed at the JMads 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 48Pregame prior+31.1Home team on offense+3.2Score differential+0.7Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Blowout margin+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. SAFETY · Q2 4:25: run for a loss of 27 yards for a SAFETY — JMU win probability +1.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:34: Jailin Walker 22 Yd Interception Return (Camden Wise Kick) — JMU win probability +3.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:45: Latrele Palmer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +2.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:15: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 17 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +4.2 pts (now 6%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:53: Latrele Palmer run for 4 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK) — JMU win probability +1.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
JMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TXST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:29TXST 4th & 13 at TXST 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:47JMU 4th & 1 at JMU 31, tied
    Close callPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:07TXST 4th & 7 at TXST 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:55JMU 4th & 1 at TXST 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    88.5%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    87.1%−2.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:55TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:52JMU 4th & 10 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:57TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 27, down 7
    Close callPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:27JMU 4th & 7 at TXST 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    85.1%−2.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:03TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 36, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:11TXST 4th & 3 at JMU 31, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    4.0%−0.6
    54% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:01TXST 4th & 23 at TXST 20, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−1.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:45JMU 4th & 5 at JMU 19, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:36TXST 4th & 17 at TXST 41, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−1.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:52JMU 4th & 9 at JMU 29, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:37TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 30, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:25JMU 4th & 3 at JMU 33, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
JMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 5:42JMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:34JMU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:45JMU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:15TXST Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:53JMU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:46JMU Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:319% → 9%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
90.9%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the TexSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
90.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-4
90.9%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Mikail Kamara for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 22Similar
Q1 13:29
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
90.6%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 56 yds, downed at the JMads 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4291% → 90%
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
90.5%
Kaelon Black run for 1 yd to the JMads 22 Kaelon Black fumbled, recovered by JMadsSimilar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+9
90.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kaelon Black for 9 yds to the JMads 31Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 1
OWN 31
0
90.5%
Kaelon Black run for no gain to the JMads 31Similar
Q1 11:47
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+10
90.0%
Sam Clark punt for 53 yds , Ashtyn Hawkins returns for 10 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:4010% → 11%
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
90.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Josh Berry for 17 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
90.0%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, False Start (Kyle Hergel) to the TexSt 38Similar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 15
OWN 38
0
90.0%
Calvin Hill run for no gain to the TexSt 38Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+2
90.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 13
OWN 40
+6
90.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 6 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q1 9:07
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
89.3%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 30 yds, downed at the JMads 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 3:2589% → 90%
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
89.3%
Todd Centeio sacked by Levi Bell for a loss of 5 yards to the JMads 19Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+10
89.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kaelon Black for 10 yds to the JMads 29Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+46
89.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Solomon Vanhorse for 46 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
89.7%
Latrele Palmer run for 1 yd to the TexSt 24Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+2
89.7%
Latrele Palmer run for 2 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+8
89.6%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 8 yds to the TexSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
89.6%
Kris Thornton run for 5 yds to the TexSt 2Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
90.0%
Todd Centeio run for 2 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5INT
4 plays · 18 yds · 1:4910% → 11%
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.6%
Layne Hatcher run for 5 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
89.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 9 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
89.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 4 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
88.9%
Layne Hatcher pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 6DOWNS
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:5890% → 89%
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
89.7%
Latrele Palmer run for 1 yd to the JMads 49Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+28
89.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 28 yds to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
89.8%
Latrele Palmer run for 3 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+1
89.8%
Latrele Palmer run for 1 yd to the TexSt 19Similar
Q1 3:53
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+12
89.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Reggie Brown for 12 yds to the TexSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
89.8%
Todd Centeio run for no gain to the TexSt 7Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
89.8%
Latrele Palmer run for 5 yds to the TexSt 2Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
89.0%
Latrele Palmer run for 1 yd to the TexSt 1Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
88.7%
Latrele Palmer run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0012% → 11%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
88.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the TexSt 7Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 7
0
88.6%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Block below the waist on HUFF, Tyler ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 7
0
88.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:55
4TH & 5
OWN 7
0
88.8%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Josh Sarratt at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0389% → 88%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
50
0
89.0%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 10
50
0
88.9%
Todd Centeio run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 10
50
0
88.5%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:52
4TH & 10
50
+4
87.9%
Sam Clark punt for 36 yds , Ashtyn Hawkins returns for 4 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5512% → 12%
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-10
88.0%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexSt 19Similar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 9
OWN 19
-4
88.0%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 15Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 13
OWN 15
0
88.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 13
OWN 15
+12
88.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Micah Hilts for 12 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q2 10:57
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
88.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 68 yds, downed at the JMads 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 10FG
13 plays · 85 yds · 5:3088% → 88%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
87.8%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 3 yds to the JMads 8Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+1
87.2%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 1 yd to the JMads 9Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 6
OWN 9
+30
86.8%
Todd Centeio run for 30 yds to the JMads 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+24
88.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Terrance Greene Jr. for 24 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
88.4%
Latrele Palmer run for 2 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+6
88.5%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 6 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+5
88.2%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 5 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
88.5%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Latrele Palmer for 11 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
88.5%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+3
88.5%
Latrele Palmer run for 3 yds to the TexSt 10Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 7
OPP 10
0
88.2%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:27
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+27
87.5%
Camden Wise 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11SF
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0212% → 10%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
87.7%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
87.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-27
89.8%
run for a loss of 27 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 12FUMBLE
4 plays · 35 yds · 1:3590% → 90%
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+14
90.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Reggie Brown for 14 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
90.2%
Latrele Palmer run for 11 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
90.2%
Todd Centeio run for 5 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+5
90.3%
Latrele Palmer run for 5 yds to the TexSt 16 Latrele Palmer fumbled, recovered by TexSt Sione TupouSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-22
93.4%
Jailin Walker 22 Yd Interception Return (Camden Wise Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:247% → 7%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
93.1%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 29Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+7
93.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 7 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
93.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
93.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 11 yds · 1:0396% → 96%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
96.1%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 7 yds to the JMads 20Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+4
96.1%
Percy Agyei-Obese run for 4 yds to the JMads 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1596% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.9%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Devin Ravenel for 1 yd to the JMads 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+18
95.9%
Todd Centeio run for 18 yds to the JMads 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
96.1%
Latrele Palmer run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
50
+11
96.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Reggie Brown for 11 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
96.1%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
96.1%
Todd Centeio run for 2 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+9
96.0%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Wayne Knight for 9 yds to the TexSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+27
96.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 27 yds to the TexSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
96.1%
Latrele Palmer run for no gain to the TexSt 1Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.8%
Latrele Palmer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:301% → 6%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+24
98.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 24 yds to the JMads 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
98.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 11 yds to the JMads 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
98.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-1
98.6%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 1 yard to the JMads 39Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+22
98.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 22 yds to the JMads 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
98.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
94.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 17 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 18INT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:2997% → 97%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
96.8%
Latrele Palmer run for 7 yds to the JMads 32Similar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
96.9%
Latrele Palmer run for 3 yds to the JMads 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
96.9%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
96.8%
Latrele Palmer run for 4 yds to the JMads 39Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+7
96.8%
CENTEIO, Todd pass to the left incomplete intended for GREENE JR., Terrance thrown to the TSU35. PENALTY TSU Pass Interference on SPEARS, Tory enforced at the spot of the foul for 7 yards to the JMU46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
97.1%
Todd Centeio pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:355% → 5%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
50
0
95.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 10
50
+6
95.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the JMads 44Similar
Q3 6:46
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+6
95.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 6 yds to the JMads 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
95.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
95.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:46
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+7
95.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 7 yds to the JMads 31Similar
Q3 4:11
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+1
95.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 1 yd to the JMads 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 20FUMBLE
4 plays · 37 yds · 1:4597% → 98%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
97.2%
Latrele Palmer run for 6 yds to the JMads 36Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+25
97.2%
Latrele Palmer run for 25 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
97.3%
Sammy Malignaggi run for 5 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+1
97.5%
Sammy Malignaggi run for 1 yd to the TexSt 33 Sammy Malignaggi fumbled, recovered by TexSt Jarron MorrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 1:254% → 4%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-4
95.7%
Lincoln Pare run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 29Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 14
OWN 29
0
96.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:26
3RD & 14
OWN 29
-9
96.0%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Jalen Green for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSt 20Similar
Q3 1:01
4TH & 23
OWN 20
0
96.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 66 yds, downed at the JMads 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1698% → 98%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
97.5%
Latrele Palmer run for 9 yds to the JMads 23Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 23
-4
97.9%
Latrele Palmer run for a loss of 4 yards to the JMads 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 19
0
97.8%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 5
OWN 19
0
97.7%
Sam Clark punt for 46 yds, downed at the TexSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:094% → 3%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
96.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 13 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
96.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the JMads 49Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 7
OPP 49
-15
96.2%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Marcell Barbee) to the TexSt 36Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 22
OWN 36
+2
96.6%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 20
OWN 38
+3
96.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 3 yds to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 12:36
4TH & 17
OWN 41
0
97.3%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 31 yds, downed at the JMads 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4498% → 98%
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
98.3%
Kaelon Black run for 1 yd to the JMads 29Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
98.3%
Todd Centeio run for no gain to the JMads 29Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
98.2%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:52
4TH & 9
OWN 29
0
98.2%
Sam Clark punt for 50 yds, downed at the TexSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25FUMBLE
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
97.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 9 yds to the TexSt 30 Lincoln Pare fumbled, recovered by JMads Sam KiddSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 26TD
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:5299% → 100%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
98.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Latrele Palmer for 13 yds to the TexSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
98.7%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offsides (Davon Sears Jr.) to the TexSt 12Similar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 5
OPP 12
+5
98.7%
Latrele Palmer run for 5 yds to the TexSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
98.7%
Latrele Palmer run for 3 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
Latrele Palmer run for 4 yds for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 27FUMBLE
1 play · 12 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.9%
Josh Berry run for 12 yds to the TexSt 37 Josh Berry fumbled, recovered by JMads Jarius ReimonenqSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 28TD
4 plays · 37 yds · 1:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.8%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+34
99.8%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kris Thornton for 34 yds to the TexSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.8%
Latrele Palmer run for 2 yds to the TexSt 1Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Latrele Palmer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:090% → 0%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Jahmyl Jeter run for no gain to the TexSt 25Similar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 7 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-2
99.9%
Jahmyl Jeter run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 5:37
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 44 yds, downed at the JMads 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:12100% → 100%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
99.9%
Wayne Knight run for 1 yd to the JMads 27Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+2
99.9%
Sammy Malignaggi run for 2 yds to the JMads 29Similar
Q4 5:37
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+4
99.9%
Sammy Malignaggi run for 4 yds to the JMads 33Similar
Q4 3:25
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Sam Clark punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 31TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 3:250% → 0%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
100.0%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 9 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+15
100.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 15 yds to the JMads 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+21
100.0%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 21 yds to the JMads 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
99.9%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 3 yds to the JMads 24Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+17
99.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 17 yds to the JMads 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
100.0%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the JMads 5Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
100.0%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 5 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:15
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 17 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)
-4.2
TD · Q2 2:34
Jailin Walker 22 Yd Interception Return (Camden Wise Kick)
+3.1
TD · Q3 10:45
Latrele Palmer run for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Wise KICK)
+2.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com