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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadUTU aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreUTU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:12 · Connor Brooksby 21 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:07: Victor Gabalis pass complete to Deven Osborne for 80 yds for a TD, (Connor Brooksby KICK) — UTU win probability +9.2 pts (now 54%) (top driver: UTU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:53: Jaren Hall pass complete to Chase Roberts for 59 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +10.5 pts (now 58%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:17: Victor Gabalis pass complete to Joey Hobert for 9 yds for a TD, (Connor Brooksby KICK) — UTU win probability +9.4 pts (now 56%) (top driver: UTU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:15: Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 45 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +12.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:25: Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +8.2 pts (now 72%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6UTU made the numbers' call on 5 of 12
- Q1 11:41BYU 4th & 2 at midfield, tiedClose callPunted · 50.8% before the snapGo for it50.8%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 8:47UTU 4th & 6 at BYU 30, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 49.3% before the snapGo for it49.3%40% to convertField goalTheir call49.3%−<0.156% to makePunt49.1%−0.2average punt
- Q1 7:12UTU 4th & 4 at BYU 4, up 3Close callKicked a field goal · 49.8% before the snapGo for it49.8%40% to convertField goalTheir call49.7%−0.193% to makePunt48.5%−1.3average punt
- Q1 3:57BYU 4th & 6 at BYU 48, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snapGo for it49.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.1%average punt
- Q1 0:48UTU 4th & 2 at BYU 46, up 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call53.0%57% to convertField goal51.5%−1.523% to makePunt52.2%−0.7average punt
- Q2 12:10UTU 4th & 2 at UTU 27, down 1Close callPunted · 44.7% before the snapGo for it45.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.7%−0.6average punt
- Q2 10:29BYU 4th & 14 at BYU 39, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snapGo for it52.5%−0.818% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.3%average punt
- Q3 12:20UTU 4th & 10 at UTU 42, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snapGo for it27.9%−2.029% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.8%average punt
- Q3 10:43BYU 4th & 2 at BYU 30, up 8Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 71.0% before the snapGo for it72.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.2%−1.4average punt
- Q3 9:19UTU 4th & 7 at UTU 20, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snapGo for it25.2%−1.035% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.1%average punt
- Q3 3:15UTU 4th & 3 at UTU 43, down 15Close callPunted · 13.3% before the snapGo for it14.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.8%−0.3average punt
- Q3 0:01UTU 4th & 7 at UTU 48, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snapGo for it10.1%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.4%average punt
- Q4 12:49BYU 4th & 8 at UTU 43, up 15Close callPunted · 93.2% before the snapGo for it93.4%34% to convertField goal92.8%−0.728% to makePuntTheir call93.3%−0.1average punt
- Q4 11:12UTU 4th & 4 at UTU 16, down 15Close callPunted · 7.0% before the snapGo for it6.5%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.3%−0.2average punt
- Q4 8:49UTU 4th & 8 at UTU 27, down 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.333% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q4 3:39BYU 4th & 5 at UTU 15, up 22Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call99.2%83% to makePunt98.5%−0.7average punt
- Q4 3:39UTU 4th & 5 at BYU 38, down 25Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%−0.142% to convertField goal0.4%38% to makePunt0.3%−0.1average punt
- Q4 0:42UTU 4th & 5 at UTU 26, down 26Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7UTU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 13:45BYU Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.4%97% to makeGo for two52.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:07UTU Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.6%97% to makeGo for two53.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:53BYU Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.8%97% to makeGo for two52.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:17UTU Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.5%97% to makeGo for two56.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:15BYU Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.6%97% to makeGo for two52.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:25BYU Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.9%97% to makeGo for two66.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:38BYU Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.5%97% to makeGo for two85.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:15BYU Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:49UTU Touchdown, down 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick1.1%−<0.197% to makeGo for twoTheir call1.1%45% to convert
- Q4 0:47BYU Touchdown, up 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBYUDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 39 yds · 3:1250% → 51%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+21
50.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 21 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
50.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 10 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+5
50.0%
PENALTY UTU Offside (Kirkland,Justin) 5 yards from BYU42 to BYU47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+3
50.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 2FG9 plays · 60 yds · 2:5449% → 50%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
50.6%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Joey Hobert for 2 yds to the Utah 12Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+54
50.6%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Deven Osborne for 54 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 5
OPP 29
-5
50.0%
PENALTY UTU False Start (Kannike,Bayo) 5 yards from BYU29 to BYU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:41
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
50.1%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Quali Conley for 4 yds to the BYU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3FUMBLE3 plays · 9 yds · 0:1550% → 50%
UTUDrive 4FG7 plays · 30 yds · 1:2050% → 51%
Q1 8:32
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+15
50.1%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Malcolm Ross-Turner for 15 yds to the BYU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
50.1%
BYU Penalty, Face Mask (7 yards) (Keenan Pili) to the BYU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
50.1%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to David Fisher for 3 yds to the BYU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5PUNT9 plays · 26 yds · 3:1049% → 48%
Q1 7:07
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+13
48.8%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Hinckley Ropati for 13 yds to the BYU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 6DOWNS10 plays · 35 yds · 3:0952% → 54%
BYUDrive 7TD5 plays · 55 yds · 2:0348% → 55%
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+30
48.0%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 30 yds to the Utah 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
49.6%
Shotgun Ropati,Hinckley rush right for 4 yards gain to the UTU20 (Kanongata'a,Sam) PENALTY BYU Holding 10 yards from UTU24 to UTU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 16
OPP 30
+30
54.7%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 30 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 1:2747% → 44%
BYUDrive 9PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:4157% → 54%
Q2 12:10
3RD & 7
OWN 46
-7
55.7%
Jaren Hall sacked by Mackavelli Malotumau for a loss of 7 yards to the BYU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 10TD4 plays · 80 yds · 0:2245% → 54%
Q2 10:07
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+80
45.7%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Deven Osborne for 80 yds for a TD, (Connor Brooksby KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11TD5 plays · 82 yds · 1:0947% → 58%
UTUDrive 12TD12 plays · 75 yds · 3:3643% → 56%
Q2 8:53
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+24
58.4%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Joey Hobert for 24 yds to the Utah 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
53.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Gabalis,Victor pass incomplete short right to Osborne,Deven PENALTY BYU Pass Interference (Robinson,Jakob) 15 yards from BYU24 to BYU09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
44.5%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Joey Hobert for 9 yds for a TD, (Connor Brooksby KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13TD5 plays · 55 yds · 1:5450% → 62%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
62.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 45 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 14INT3 plays · 4 yds · 0:3340% → 41%
BYUDrive 15TD12 plays · 84 yds · 2:1762% → 72%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
61.2%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Brayden Cosper for 23 yds to the Utah 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+18
62.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 18 yds to the Utah 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
62.9%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Isaac Rex for 12 yds to the Utah 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+5
59.7%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 5 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
71.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 16END OF HALF2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 17PUNT9 plays · 17 yds · 2:4031% → 29%
BYUDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3771% → 70%
UTUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2429% → 26%
Q3 9:19
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
73.7%
Andrew Day punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20TD11 plays · 55 yds · 3:4175% → 87%
Q3 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-15
74.4%
Brooks,Christopher rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BYU50 (Smith-Bejgrowicz,Kaejin) PENALTY BYU Personal Foul (Wake,Masen) 15 yards from BYU45 to BYU30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 25
OWN 30
+23
72.2%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Chase Roberts for 23 yds to the Utah 47Similar
Q3 9:19
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+10
74.3%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 10 yds to the Utah 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
75.5%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Puka Nacua for 14 yds to the Utah 23 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Joe Tukuafu) to the Utah 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 12
OPP 40
+27
75.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Christopher Brooks for 27 yds to the Utah 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-15
75.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hall,Jaren pass complete short left to Rex,Isaac for 0 yards to the UTU13 PENALTY BYU Pass Interference (Rex,Isaac) 15 yards from UTU13 to UTU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 25
OPP 28
+18
79.3%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Christopher Brooks for 18 yds to the Utah 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 21PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 2:2316% → 15%
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
84.3%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to David Fisher for 6 yds to the Utah 31Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-10
83.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Conley,Quali rush left for 1 yard gain to the UTU37 (Mangelson,Blake) PENALTY UTU Holding (Eldredge,Kana'i) 10 yards from UTU36 to UTU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+17
84.8%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Malcolm Ross-Turner for 17 yds to the Utah 43Similar
Q3 3:15
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
85.3%
Andrew Day punt for 35 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for no gain to the BYU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22INT7 plays · 40 yds · 1:2691% → 95%
Q3 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+14
92.4%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Isaac Rex for 14 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+36
92.6%
Jaren Hall pass complete to Brayden Cosper for 36 yds to the Utah 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
93.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hall,Jaren pass complete deep right to Cosper,Brayden for 19 yards to the UTU13 (Malaki,Malaki; Sheridan,Jayden) PENALTY BYU Holding (Suamataia,Kingsley) 10 yards from UTU32 to UTU42. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 23PUNT4 plays · -12 yds · 1:4813% → 12%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
86.9%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Michael Moten for 3 yds to the Utah 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24PUNT7 plays · 29 yds · 2:1296% → 97%
UTUDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:379% → 8%
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
90.9%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Joey Hobert for 1 yd to the Utah 11Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+7
91.0%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Damani Wilks for 7 yds to the Utah 18Similar
Q4 11:12
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
92.3%
Andrew Day punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 26TD4 plays · 58 yds · 0:5798% → 100%
UTUDrive 27PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:261% → 1%
Q4 10:15
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
98.9%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Joey Hobert for 4 yds to the Utah 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 28FG11 plays · 46 yds · 5:10100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 29TD9 plays · 75 yds · 1:501% → 2%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Gabalis,Victor pass incomplete short right to Hobert,Joey PENALTY BYU Pass Interference (Criddle,Matthew) 15 yards from UTU25 to UTU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
99.4%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Malcolm Ross-Turner for 17 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
99.4%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Michael Moten for 5 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q4 3:39
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+20
99.4%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Daniel Thomason for 20 yds to the BYU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
97.7%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Joey Hobert for 18 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 30TD7 plays · 39 yds · 1:01100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTUDrive 31END OF GAME7 plays · 29 yds · 0:420% → 0%
Q4 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
100.0%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Michael Moten for 5 yds to the Utah 26Similar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 5
OWN 26
+5
100.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Gabalis,Victor pass incomplete short right to Moten,Michael PENALTY BYU Offside (Greer,Hunter) 5 yards from UTU26 to UTU31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+19
100.0%
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Joey Hobert for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:15
Jaren Hall pass complete to Keanu Hill for 45 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
+12.1
TD · Q2 8:53
Jaren Hall pass complete to Chase Roberts for 59 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
+10.5
TD · Q2 5:17
Victor Gabalis pass complete to Joey Hobert for 9 yds for a TD, (Connor Brooksby KICK)
-9.4