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HCU

Houston Christian 0 at Texas State 34

TXST
2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadHCU aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreHCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Fudge Woods run for 3 yds to the HstnB 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. PUNT · Q1 8:50: Brady Buell punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 43 — HCU win probability +0.8 pts (now 7%) (top driver: Tied - offense's timeout count is neutral here).
  2. TD · Q2 14:19: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 3 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +1.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 9:27: Layne Hatcher pass incomplete — TXST win probability +0.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 8:55: Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 38 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +2.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 1:11: Seth Keller 33 yd FG GOOD — TXST win probability +1.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9HCU made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    94.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:50HCU 4th & 14 at HCU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:09TXST 4th & 16 at TXST 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:32HCU 4th & 5 at HCU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:32TXST 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    92.7%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:15HCU 4th & 4 at HCU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:02HCU 4th & 10 at TXST 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:32TXST 4th & 5 at HCU 47, up 14
    Close callPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:44HCU 4th & 7 at HCU 42, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:04HCU 4th & 16 at HCU 41, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:00TXST 4th & 18 at TXST 7, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.6
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:13HCU 4th & 8 at TXST 36, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:13HCU 4th & 8 at TXST 36, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:13TXST 4th & 1 at HCU 22, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.8%−0.4
    72% to make
    Punt
    96.6%−1.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:11TXST 4th & 6 at HCU 16, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:29HCU 4th & 5 at HCU 30, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:02TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 24, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:20HCU 4th & 21 at HCU 17, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.1%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:19TXST 4th & 20 at TXST 33, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:06HCU 4th & 15 at HCU 42, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 2:22TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:19TXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:55TXST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:46TXST Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1INT
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:3895% → 94%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.6%
Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
94.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 6 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
94.6%
Calvin Hill run for no gain to the TexSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+4
94.6%
Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the TexSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+34
94.6%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 34 yds to the HstnB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
94.1%
Layne Hatcher pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:326% → 7%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
94.0%
RJ Smith run for no gain to the HstnB 1Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+4
94.1%
RJ Smith run for 4 yds to the HstnB 5Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+16
94.0%
Justin Fomby pass complete to Vernon Harrell for 16 yds to the HstnB 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
94.0%
Justin Fomby pass complete to Joshlyn McCarter for 3 yds to the HstnB 24Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+2
94.0%
RJ Smith run for 2 yds to the HstnB 26Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 5
OWN 26
-9
94.0%
Justin Fomby sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the HstnB 17Similar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 14
OWN 17
0
93.2%
Brady Buell punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:4193% → 93%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
93.3%
Calvin Hill run for no gain to the TexSt 43Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
93.2%
Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 16
OWN 37
0
93.0%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q1 7:09
4TH & 16
OWN 37
0
92.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Branden Walker at the HstnB 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:377% → 7%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.6%
Justin Fomby pass complete to Karl Reynolds for 5 yds to the HstnB 30Similar
Q1 7:09
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
92.5%
Justin Fomby pass incomplete to Deon CormierSimilar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
92.6%
HOUSTON CHRISTI Penalty, Illegal Formation (Xavier Toliver) declinedSimilar
Q1 6:32
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
92.6%
Brady Buell punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 4:1092% → 93%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+26
92.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 26 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
92.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Ashtyn HawkinsSimilar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
92.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Charles BrownSimilar
Q1 6:32
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+9
92.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:32
4TH & 1
50
+1
92.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the HstnB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
92.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 17 yds to the HstnB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
92.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the HstnB 26Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+4
92.8%
Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the HstnB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
92.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
92.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 3 yds to the HstnB 19Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+19
92.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 19 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:018% → 8%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
92.5%
RJ Smith run for 9 yds to the HstnB 34Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
92.2%
Justin Fomby pass complete to Ismael Fuller for 3 yds to the HstnB 31Similar
Q1 2:16
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
92.5%
Justin Fomby pass incomplete to Deuce McMillanSimilar
Q1 1:15
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
92.4%
Brady Buell punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 1:5692% → 94%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
92.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Donnovan MoorerSimilar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
92.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hatcher,Layne pass incomplete short left to Brown,Charles PENALTY HCU Pass Interference (Hargrove,Devion) 15 yards from TXST20 to TXST35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
92.5%
Lincoln Pare run for 7 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+3
92.7%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+39
92.5%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 39 yds to the TEXSTATE 16 for a 1ST down HOUSTON CHRISTI Penalty, Defensive Offside (Corey Smooth) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
92.6%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Lincoln PareSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+13
92.6%
Lincoln Pare run for 13 yds to the HstnB 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
94.3%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 3 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 26 yds · 2:177% → 7%
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.5%
Justin Fomby pass complete to Karl Reynolds for 2 yds to the HstnB 27Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
93.5%
Justin Fomby pass incomplete to Ismael FullerSimilar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
93.4%
PENALTY HCU False Start (Alvarado,Andrew) 5 yards from HCU32 to HCU27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
93.6%
Justin Fomby run for 9 yds to the HstnB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
93.4%
Justin Fomby pass incomplete to Nate LivingstonSimilar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
93.5%
Nate Livingston run for 7 yds to the HstnB 43Similar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+8
93.3%
Justin Fomby pass complete to Nate Livingston for 8 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
93.2%
Justin Fomby pass incomplete to Nate LivingstonSimilar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
93.4%
Justin Fomby pass incomplete to Desmond YoungSimilar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
93.4%
Justin Fomby pass incomplete to Deon CormierSimilar
Q2 12:02
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
93.4%
Brady Buell punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 40 yds · 2:3094% → 94%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+14
93.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 14 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+21
94.0%
Calvin Hill run for 21 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
94.2%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the TexSt 49Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+4
94.2%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 4 yds to the HstnB 47Similar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
94.1%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q2 9:32
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
93.7%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 10INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
93.3%
Justin Fomby pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11TD
2 plays · 32 yds · 0:3294% → 97%
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
94.2%
Layne Hatcher pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+38
96.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 38 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:114% → 4%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
96.4%
Justin Fomby pass complete to RJ Smith for 8 yds to the HstnB 33Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
96.2%
Justin Fomby pass complete to Joshua Graham for 6 yds to the HstnB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
96.3%
Justin Fomby pass complete to Desmond Young for 5 yds to the HstnB 44Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+3
96.2%
Justin Fomby run for 3 yds to the HstnB 47Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+5
96.2%
Justin Fomby pass complete to Nate Livingston for 5 yds to the HstnB 42Similar
Q2 5:44
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
96.4%
Brady Buell punt for 46 yds , Ashtyn Hawkins returns for no gain to the TexSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13FG
17 plays · 78 yds · 5:4497% → 98%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
96.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TexSt 13Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+12
96.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 12 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
96.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 8 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
97.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 9 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
97.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 7 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+5
97.1%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the HstnB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
97.1%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 4 yds to the HstnB 42Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+1
97.1%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the HstnB 41Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+6
97.7%
Calvin Hill run for 6 yds to the HstnB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
97.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Calvin Hill for 8 yds to the HstnB 27Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+1
97.8%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the HstnB 26Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+2
97.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the HstnB 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
98.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 11 yds to the HstnB 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
98.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Lincoln Pare for 3 yds to the HstnB 10Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+27
97.9%
Seth Keller 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 16 yds · 2:563% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.1%
RJ Smith run for 6 yds to the HstnB 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
97.0%
Justin Fomby pass complete to RJ Smith for 4 yds to the HstnB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
97.0%
Justin Fomby pass incomplete to RJ SmithSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
97.0%
Justin Fomby pass complete to Karl Reynolds for 9 yds to the HstnB 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
96.9%
RJ Smith run for 3 yds to the HstnB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
97.0%
Justin Fomby pass incomplete to Desmond YoungSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
97.0%
Justin Fomby pass complete to RJ Smith for 1 yd to the HstnB 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 48
-5
97.0%
PENALTY HCU False Start (Daniels,Dion) 5 yards from HCU48 to HCU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 43
-2
97.2%
Justin Fomby sacked by Levi Bell for a loss of 2 yards to the HstnB 41Similar
Q3 12:04
4TH & 16
OWN 41
0
97.7%
Brady Buell punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 2:0498% → 98%
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-4
97.7%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Carlton Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 11Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 14
OWN 11
+6
97.7%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 6 yds to the TexSt 17Similar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 8
OWN 17
-10
97.6%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Jalyx Hunt for a loss of 10 yards to the TexSt 7Similar
Q3 10:00
4TH & 18
OWN 7
0
97.6%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Branden Walker at the TexSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 16 yds · 3:472% → 2%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
97.8%
Justin Fomby pass incomplete to Karl ReynoldsSimilar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
97.8%
Justin Fomby pass complete to Fudge Woods for 1 yd to the TexSt 48Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 9
OPP 48
-5
97.9%
PENALTY HCU False Start (McMillan,Deuce) 5 yards from TXST48 to HCU47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 14
OWN 47
+5
98.0%
Justin Fomby pass complete to Fudge Woods for 5 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
97.9%
RJ Smith run for no gain to the TexSt 38Similar
Q3 8:09
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
97.9%
RJ Smith run for no gain to the TexSt 38Similar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+2
98.0%
Justin Fomby pass complete to Karl Reynolds for 2 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q3 6:13
4TH & 8
OPP 36
-3
98.1%
Justin Fomby sacked by Nelson Mbanasor for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 33 Justin Fomby fumbled, recovered by HstnB Justin Fomby , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 6:13
4TH & 8
OPP 36
-3
98.1%
Justin Fomby sacked by Nelson Mbanasor for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 33 Justin Fomby fumbled, recovered by HstnB Justin Fomby , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 5:0298% → 100%
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
98.3%
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q3 6:13
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+6
98.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
98.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 2 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q3 6:13
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+15
98.4%
HOUSTON CHRISTI Penalty, Personal Foul (Travis Greenawalt) to the HstnB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
98.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the HstnB 30Similar
Q3 6:13
2ND & 14
OPP 35
+8
98.4%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Charles Brown for 8 yds to the HstnB 27Similar
Q3 6:13
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+5
98.4%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the HstnB 22Similar
Q3 6:13
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+2
98.2%
Lincoln Pare run for 2 yds to the HstnB 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
98.4%
Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the HstnB 16Similar
Q3 6:13
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
98.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q3 6:13
3RD & 6
OPP 16
0
98.4%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q3 1:11
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+33
99.8%
Seth Keller 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:420% → 0%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Justin Fomby pass complete to Fudge Woods for 1 yd to the HstnB 26Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-10
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Fomby,Justin pass complete short right to Cormier,Deon for 0 yards to the HCU26 (Edwards, Jr.,Alonzo; Holloway,Brian) PENALTY HCU Holding (Brewer,William) 10 yards from HCU26 to HCU16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+8
99.9%
Justin Fomby run for 8 yds to the HstnB 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+6
99.9%
Justin Fomby pass complete to Deuce McMillan for 6 yds to the HstnB 30Similar
Q4 14:29
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Brady Buell punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:27100% → 100%
Q4 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.8%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 5 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q4 14:29
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
99.8%
Lincoln Pare run for 1 yd to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 14:29
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
99.8%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Javen BanksSimilar
Q4 13:02
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
99.8%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:420% → 0%
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Justin Fomby pass incomplete to Joshlyn McCarterSimilar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
99.9%
RJ Smith run for no gain to the HstnB 28Similar
Q4 13:02
3RD & 10
OWN 28
-11
99.9%
Justin Fomby sacked by Ben Bell for a loss of 11 yards to the HstnB 17Similar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 21
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Brady Buell punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 2:01100% → 100%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
99.9%
Calvin Hill run for 6 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+2
99.9%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 6
OWN 47
-14
99.9%
Layne Hatcher sacked by Zae Smith for a loss of 14 yards to the TexSt 33Similar
Q4 9:19
4TH & 20
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Branden Walker at the HstnB 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:130% → 0%
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
99.9%
Justin Fomby pass complete to Branden Walker for 5 yds to the HstnB 33Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+14
99.9%
Justin Fomby pass complete to Deon Cormier for 14 yds to the HstnB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
99.9%
Justin Fomby pass complete to Nate Livingston for 1 yd to the HstnB 46Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 11
OWN 46
-15
99.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Fomby,Justin pass complete deep left to Harrell,Vernon for 39 yards to the TXST15 (Anderson,Kevin; Hockley,Rodrick) PENALTY HCU Pass Interference (Harrell,Vernon) 15 yards from HCU46 to HCU31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 26
OWN 31
+1
99.9%
Justin Fomby pass complete to RJ Smith for 1 yd to the HstnB 32Similar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 25
OWN 32
+10
99.9%
Justin Fomby pass complete to Vernon Harrell for 10 yds to the HstnB 42Similar
Q4 6:06
4TH & 15
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Brady Buell punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23TD
12 plays · 91 yds · 5:20100% → 100%
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
99.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TexSt 12Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+8
99.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 8 yds to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Charles BrownSimilar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 3 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+5
99.9%
PENALTY HCU Offside (Smith,Zae) 5 yards from TXST23 to TXST28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+5
99.9%
Lincoln Pare run for 5 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Layne Hatcher pass incomplete to Marcell BarbeeSimilar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
99.9%
Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+41
99.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Javen Banks for 41 yds to the HstnB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+17
99.9%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 17 yds to the HstnB 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
99.9%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the HstnB 10Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+10
100.0%
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Donnovan Moorer for 10 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:400% → 0%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
100.0%
Fudge Woods run for 4 yds to the HstnB 19Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+3
100.0%
Fudge Woods run for 3 yds to the HstnB 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:55
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 38 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)
+2.8
TD · Q2 14:19
Layne Hatcher pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 3 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)
+1.7
FG · Q3 1:11
Seth Keller 33 yd FG GOOD
+1.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com