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KENT

Kent State 30 at Buffalo 27

BUF
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2022 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreKENT score
0%25%50%75%100%OTQ1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4FGTDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:07 · Anthony Venneri punt for 16 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5OTQ1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q3Q4Play 120Home team on offense+3.8Pregame prior+0.4Garbage-time factor−1.5Score differential−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3Time remaining−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · OT 0:00: pass incomplete to Justin Marshall BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Justin Marshall) to the KntSt 13 — BUF win probability +18.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · OT 0:00: Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the Buff 7 — KENT win probability +57.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
  3. FG · Q1 3:32: Alex McNulty 47 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +42.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:12: Matt Myers 16 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick) — BUF win probability +16.3 pts (now 76%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:07: Marquez Cooper 2 Yd Run (Tommy Ulatowski Pass to Ja'Shaun Poke for Two-Point Conversion) — KENT win probability +45.7 pts (now 58%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 6 of 10KENT made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 10:43KENT 4th & 7 at BUF 7, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    36.3%−1.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:32BUF 4th & 15 at KENT 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    58.3%−1.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00BUF 4th & 1 at KENT 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    58.7%−1.8
    30% to make
    Punt
    59.1%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:38KENT 4th & 5 at KENT 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:54BUF 4th & 7 at KENT 39, down 4
    Close callPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    59.8%−0.5
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:05KENT 4th & 8 at KENT 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00BUF 4th & 1 at KENT 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    55.4%−2.7
    72% to make
    Punt
    48.0%−10.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:06KENT 4th & 10 at BUF 46, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    42.7%−1.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:48BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 11, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−0.5
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:21BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 32, tied
    Close callPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:46KENT 4th & 2 at BUF 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    42.4%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:46KENT 4th & 3 at BUF 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    42.4%−1.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    41.9%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:27KENT 4th & 9 at BUF 33, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.2%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    43.3%
    49% to make
    Punt
    41.0%−2.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:48KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:07BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    50.8%−12.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:07BUF 4th & 3 at KENT 46, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.8 ptsPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    48.7%−10.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%−6.8
    average punt
  17. Q3 10:09KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−1.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:07KENT 4th & 5 at KENT 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.7%−0.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:07KENT 4th & 4 at BUF 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    3.9%−0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−1.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:07BUF 4th & 11 at BUF 35, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:07BUF 4th & 1 at KENT 14, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.2%−1.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    90.2%−4.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1KENT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q3 11:12BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 2:07KENT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    5.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 2:07KENT Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    28.2%−1.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    29.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1FG
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0066% → 84%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-4
65.6%
Cole Snyder run for a loss of 4 yards to the KntSt 29 Cole Snyder fumbled, recovered by Buff Cole SnyderSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 14
OPP 29
0
62.9%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete, broken up by Saivon Taylor-DavisSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 29
+17
59.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 17 yds to the KntSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
65.6%
Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-1
65.6%
Mike Washington run for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 13Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 13
0
83.6%
pass incomplete to Justin Marshall BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Justin Marshall) to the KntSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0029% → 86%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
71.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 9 yds to the Buff 16Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+7
71.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 7 yds to the Buff 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
14.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the Buff 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 3FG
20 plays · 68 yds · 11:2839% → 43%
Q1 11:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
61.2%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Marquez Cooper for 1 yd to the Buff 7Similar
Q1 10:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
61.2%
Andrew Glass 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-3
58.5%
Marquez Cooper run for a loss of 3 yards to the KntSt 30Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+33
58.8%
Collin Schlee run for 33 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
57.4%
pass incomplete to Trell HarrisSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+15
57.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 15 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
56.8%
Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+13
57.0%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Devontez Walker for 13 yds to the Buff 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
56.8%
Collin Schlee sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 11Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+3
57.0%
Marquez Cooper run for 3 yds to the Buff 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4FG
14 plays · 46 yds · 3:3259% → 59%
Q1 3:32
4TH & 15
OPP 29
+47
59.0%
Alex McNulty 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
58.6%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 6 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
59.5%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
59.0%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
59.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 13 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
60.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the KntSt 46Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+3
60.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the KntSt 43Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+1
60.1%
Matt Myers run for 1 yd to the KntSt 42Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+7
59.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 7 yds to the KntSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
60.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the KntSt 30Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+6
60.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 6 yds to the KntSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
60.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Robbie Mangas for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 26Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 26
-10
60.9%
Cole Snyder sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the KntSt 36Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 22
OPP 36
+7
58.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Trevor Borland for 7 yds to the KntSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3840% → 42%
Q1 1:38
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
59.9%
Josh Smith punt for 38 ydsSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
58.7%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Devontez Walker KENT ST Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the KntSt 20Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
58.8%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the KntSt 22Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+12
58.8%
Collin Schlee run for 12 yds to the KntSt 34Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-4
58.3%
Collin Schlee run for a loss of 4 yards to the KntSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:0659% → 59%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
58.8%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin Marshall for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Alex Branch) to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
60.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the KntSt 48Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 48
-5
60.4%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Quian Williams BUFFALO Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the Buff 47Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+11
59.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Trevor Borland for 11 yds to the KntSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
60.4%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin Marshall, broken up by Montre MillerSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
60.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the KntSt 39Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
60.1%
pass incomplete to Al-Jay HendersonSimilar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
59.0%
Anthony Venneri punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 13:0541% → 47%
Q2 13:05
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
59.1%
Josh Smith punt for 11 ydsSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
51.1%
Marquez Cooper pass complete to Trell Harris for 9 yds to the KntSt 29Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
49.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 3 yds to the KntSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
50.5%
Ja'Shaun Poke run for a loss of 3 yards to the KntSt 29Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 29
0
51.4%
pass incomplete to Trell HarrisSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 29
+2
52.6%
Collin Schlee run for 2 yds to the KntSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8TD
9 plays · 45 yds · 8:3660% → 58%
Q2 8:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
60.0%
Matt Myers 2 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
56.2%
Mike Washington run for 14 yds to the KntSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
58.0%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the KntSt 30Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+4
58.0%
Quian Williams run for 4 yds to the KntSt 26Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+4
55.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 4 yds to the KntSt 22Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+4
54.5%
Cole Snyder run for 4 yds to the KntSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
58.0%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the KntSt 15Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+9
58.0%
Matt Myers run for 9 yds to the KntSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
58.0%
Matt Myers run for 4 yds to the KntSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 6:5245% → 38%
Q2 6:52
3RD & 18
OWN 46
+8
55.0%
Gavin Garcia run for 8 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q2 6:06
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
55.3%
Josh Smith punt for 41 ydsSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
61.2%
pass incomplete to Devontez WalkerSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-5
61.6%
Bryan Bradford run for a loss of 5 yards to the KntSt 34Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 15
OWN 34
+20
64.1%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Bryan Bradford for 5 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Caleb Offord) to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-8
59.2%
Devin Kargman sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the KntSt 46Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 18
OWN 46
0
61.9%
Devin Kargman pass incomplete to Devontez Walker, broken up by Ibrahim KanteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 4:4862% → 62%
Q2 4:48
4TH & 4
OWN 11
0
62.0%
Anthony Venneri punt for 27 ydsSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
63.5%
Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+6
63.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 6 yds to the Buff 11Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 11
0
62.2%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Quian Williams, broken up by Montre MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11TD
4 plays · 38 yds · 3:5345% → 48%
Q2 3:53
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+21
55.2%
Marquez Cooper 21 Yd Run (Andrew Glass Kick)Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
53.1%
Marquez Cooper run for 13 yds to the Buff 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
52.0%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 4 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
52.0%
Devin Kargman pass incomplete, broken up by Shaun DolacSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:2159% → 59%
Q2 2:21
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+19
59.4%
Anthony Venneri punt for 42 yds , Ja'Shaun Poke returns for 19 yds to the KntSt 45Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.6%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the Buff 26Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
60.5%
pass incomplete to Mike WashingtonSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+6
59.0%
Cole Snyder run for 6 yds to the Buff 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13DOWNS
12 plays · 22 yds · 1:4644% → 46%
Q2 1:46
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+2
55.7%
Bryan Bradford run for 2 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
53.8%
pass incomplete to Devontez WalkerSimilar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
54.1%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Devontez Walker for 7 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 3
OPP 38
0
53.6%
Devin Kargman pass incomplete to Trell Harris, broken up by Caleb OffordSimilar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+4
55.5%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 4 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
52.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the Buff 33Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 9
OPP 33
0
52.6%
Devin Kargman pass incomplete to Ja'Shaun PokeSimilar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 9
OPP 33
0
54.1%
pass incomplete to Ja'Shaun PokeSimilar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 9
OPP 33
0
56.4%
pass incomplete to Luke FlorieaSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
54.5%
Marquez Cooper run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
50
0
53.6%
pass incomplete to Devontez WalkerSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
50
+3
54.0%
Marquez Cooper run for 3 yds to the Buff 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:3244% → 45%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.6%
Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
55.8%
Marquez Cooper run for 9 yds to the KntSt 34Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+10
54.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 10 yds to the KntSt 44 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) to the KntSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
52.1%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the KntSt 48Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
51.6%
Devin Kargman pass incomplete, broken up by Ibrahim KanteSimilar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
52.0%
pass incomplete to Devontez WalkerSimilar
Q3 2:48
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
55.5%
Josh Smith punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 15:3559% → 60%
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
58.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the Buff 15Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+7
58.5%
Matt Myers run for 7 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
60.5%
Matt Myers run for 1 yd to the Buff 38Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+7
60.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 7 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q3 2:07
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+1
61.9%
Matt Myers run for 1 yd to the Buff 46Similar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+15
57.6%
Matt Myers run for 15 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+1
59.2%
Matt Myers run for 1 yd to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
63.0%
Mike Washington run for 9 yds to the KntSt 44Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
64.2%
Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-2
63.3%
Matt Myers run for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 46Similar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
59.7%
Anthony Venneri punt for 16 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 11:1276% → 86%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
76.0%
Matt Myers 16 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
84.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 8 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+3
85.3%
Matt Myers run for 3 yds to the KntSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
85.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the KntSt 47Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+2
85.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Robbie Mangas for 2 yds to the KntSt 45Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+12
84.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 12 yds to the KntSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
85.7%
Matt Myers run for 8 yds to the KntSt 25Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+9
85.7%
Matt Myers run for 9 yds to the KntSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 10:0926% → 11%
Q3 10:09
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+1
74.4%
Josh Smith punt for 43 yds , Chandler Baker returns for 1 yd to the Buff 33Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.9%
Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.1%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Trell Harris for 5 yds to the KntSt 30Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
88.2%
pass incomplete to Marquez CooperSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-5
89.4%
KENT ST Penalty, false start (Saivon Taylor-Davis) to the KntSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 4:3690% → 94%
Q3 4:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.9%
Matt Myers 1 Yd Run (Alex McNulty Kick)Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
93.0%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+6
93.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Boobie Curry for 6 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+2
93.1%
Matt Myers run for 2 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
93.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Mike Washington for 2 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+14
93.4%
Matt Myers run for 14 yds to the KntSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
93.5%
Matt Myers run for 5 yds to the KntSt 36Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+4
93.5%
Matt Myers run for 4 yds to the KntSt 32Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+2
93.3%
Cole Snyder run for 2 yds to the KntSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+29
93.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 29 yds to the KntSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 19INT
4 plays · -4 yds · 10:009% → 4%
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
90.7%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the KntSt 31Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-5
95.6%
KENT ST Penalty, false start (Elijah Ratliff) to the KntSt 26Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 14
OWN 26
0
96.0%
Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 14
OWN 26
0
96.1%
Devin Kargman pass incomplete, broken up by C.J. BazileSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 20TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 6:257% → 14%
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
92.7%
Marquez Cooper run for 10 yds to the KntSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
95.6%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Trell Harris for 5 yds to the KntSt 35Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
95.4%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incomplete to Trell Harris, broken up by Isaiah KingSimilar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
95.6%
pass incomplete to Ja'Shaun PokeSimilar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+5
95.7%
Marquez Cooper run for 5 yds to the KntSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
95.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the KntSt 42Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+42
95.4%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Devontez Walker for 42 yds to the BUFFALO 16 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Elijah Blades) to the Buff 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
94.4%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incomplete to Devontez Walker, broken up by Isaiah KingSimilar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+7
94.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 7 yds to the Buff 9Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 3
OPP 9
-1
94.7%
Marquez Cooper run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 10Similar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+10
89.0%
Ja'Shaun Poke 10 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
Q4 2:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
86.3%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incomplete to Ja'Shaun PokeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 3:4991% → 94%
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.0%
Mike Washington run for 5 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
94.5%
Mike Washington run for 6 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
94.7%
Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
94.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Mike Washington for 4 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-5
94.8%
Cole Snyder sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 35Similar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
93.5%
Anthony Venneri punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22MISSED FG
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
95.2%
Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+8
95.2%
Matt Myers run for 8 yds to the KntSt 15Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+1
95.0%
Matt Myers run for 1 yd to the KntSt 14Similar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+33
94.3%
Alex McNulty 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 23TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 0:008% → 58%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
91.6%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Devontez Walker for 15 yds to the KntSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
90.0%
Marquez Cooper run for 8 yds to the KntSt 47Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+8
88.6%
Tommy Ulatowski run for 8 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
89.0%
pass incomplete to Devontez WalkerSimilar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
89.1%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incomplete to Devontez Walker, broken up by Isaiah KingSimilar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+11
90.1%
Tommy Ulatowski run for 11 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
87.1%
Marquez Cooper run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 35Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+9
87.5%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Trell Harris for 9 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+24
87.7%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Trell Harris for 24 yds to the Buff 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
42.0%
Marquez Cooper 2 Yd Run (Tommy Ulatowski Pass to Ja'Shaun Poke for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q4 2:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
42.0%
Tommy Ulatowski pass incomplete to Devontez Walker BUFFALO Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Isaiah King) to the Buff 3Similar
Q4 2:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
42.0%
Tommy Ulatowski pass complete to Ja'Shaun PokeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24FUMBLE
8 plays · 24 yds · 1:0759% → 58%
Q4 2:07
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
59.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Mike Washington for 9 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
60.3%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin Marshall, broken up by D.J. Miller Jr. KENT ST Penalty, off-side (Saivon Taylor-Davis) to the Buff 44Similar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 5
OWN 44
0
63.1%
pass incomplete to Mike WashingtonSimilar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+10
63.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ray Embry for 10 yds to the KntSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
64.1%
Cole Snyder sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the BUFFALO 49 BUFFALO Penalty, intentional grounding (Cole Snyder) to the Buff 49Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 15
OWN 49
0
59.1%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Quian Williams, broken up by Alex BranchSimilar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 15
OWN 49
+8
56.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Mike Washington for 8 yds Cole Snyder fumbled, recovered by KntSt CJ HarrisSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
57.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 5 yds to the Buff 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 25Uncategorized
2 plays · 9 yds · 1:5556% → 54%
Q4 2:07
2ND & 1
OPP 48
-7
43.8%
Tommy Ulatowski sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the KntSt 25Similar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
45.8%
Tommy Ulatowski run for 9 yds to the Buff 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the Buff 7
-57
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-45.8
TD · Q4 2:07
Marquez Cooper 2 Yd Run (Tommy Ulatowski Pass to Ja'Shaun Poke for Two-Point Conversion)
-45.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com