Try the model
TOL

Toledo 14 at Western Michigan 20

WMU
2022 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2022 · Waldo Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:19 · Nick Mihalic punt for 42 yds , Adam Beale returns for 3 yds to the Toled 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 166Pregame prior−3.8Home team on offense+22.9Garbage-time factor+11.7Score differential+11.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.4Blowout margin−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:13: Sean Tyler run for 63 yds for a TD, (Palmer Domschke KICK) — WMU win probability +16.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 1:30: Palmer Domschke 38 yd FG GOOD — WMU win probability +9.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:11: Tucker Gleason pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 17 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +23.9 pts (now 34%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:11: Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 1 yd to the WMich 26 — WMU win probability +12.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:27: Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 4 yds to the Toled 38 — WMU win probability +8.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 12 of 17TOL made the numbers' call on 12 of 14
  1. Q1 13:07WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:32TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:50WMU 4th & 18 at WMU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:24TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:46WMU 4th & 13 at WMU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:36WMU 4th & 14 at WMU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−0.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:36WMU 4th & 14 at WMU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−0.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:45TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:29WMU 4th & 13 at WMU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−1.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:24TOL 4th & 20 at TOL 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−2.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:51WMU 4th & 22 at WMU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−2.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:28TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q2 2:04WMU 4th & 7 at TOL 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    42.5%−0.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q2 1:03TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−1.4
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  15. Q2 0:00WMU 4th & 7 at TOL 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    38.1%−6.5
    average punt
  16. Q3 12:49TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 47, down 3
    Close callPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%−0.9
    average punt
  17. Q3 11:46WMU 4th & 8 at WMU 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−1.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  18. Q3 6:46TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−2.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  19. Q3 5:11WMU 4th & 4 at midfield, up 10
    Close callPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%−1.0
    average punt
  20. Q3 3:26TOL 4th & 20 at TOL 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−5.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  21. Q3 1:30WMU 4th & 14 at TOL 21, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−2.9
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    66.8%−8.9
    average punt
  22. Q3 1:06TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 25, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  23. Q4 14:49WMU 4th & 7 at WMU 38, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.6%
    average punt
  24. Q4 11:09TOL 4th & 3 at WMU 27, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    11.9%−0.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−5.9
    average punt
  25. Q4 9:19WMU 4th & 7 at WMU 30, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.1%
    average punt
  26. Q4 8:19TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 40, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.5%−1.9
    average punt
  27. Q4 5:55WMU 4th & 4 at TOL 34, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    94.3%−0.6
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%−1.2
    average punt
  28. Q4 3:35WMU 4th & 14 at WMU 21, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−5.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%
    average punt
  29. Q4 2:28WMU 4th & 4 at TOL 36, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    91.2%−0.9
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%−1.7
    average punt
  30. Q4 1:43TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.4%−8.6
    average punt
  31. Q4 1:43TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.4%−8.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TOL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 11:33TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:16WMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:13WMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:11TOL Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WMUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5327% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
27.0%
Sean Tyler run for 3 yds to the WMich 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+6
27.0%
Jack Salopek run for 6 yds to the WMich 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 27
0
27.0%
Sean Tyler run for no gain to the WMich 27Similar
Q1 13:07
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
27.8%
Nick Mihalic punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the Toled 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3572% → 72%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
27.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
27.8%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Thomas ZsirosSimilar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
27.8%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q1 12:32
4TH & 8
OWN 42
+3
28.2%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 40 yds , Anthony Sambucci returns for 3 yds to the WMich 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 2:4228% → 29%
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
28.2%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Malique DieudonneSimilar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+3
28.2%
Sean Tyler run for 3 yds to the WMich 24Similar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+10
28.1%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Malique Dieudonne for 10 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
28.2%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Malique DieudonneSimilar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
28.2%
Sean Tyler run for 6 yds to the WMich 28Similar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 16
OWN 28
-2
28.1%
Jack Salopek sacked by Nate Givhan for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 26Similar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 18
OWN 26
+1
29.1%
Nick Mihalic punt for 45 yds , Adam Beale returns for 1 yd to the Toled 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:2671% → 69%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
29.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Mikel Barkley for 9 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+3
29.1%
Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
29.1%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 8
OWN 44
-8
29.1%
Dequan Finn sacked by Marshawn Kneeland for a loss of 8 yards to the Toled 36 Dequan Finn fumbled, recovered by Toled , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 16
OWN 36
+7
29.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 7 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 7:24
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
30.7%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Anthony Sambucci at the WMich 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:3831% → 31%
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
30.5%
PENALTY TOL Offside (Alexander,Darius) 5 yards from WMU16 to WMU21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 5
OWN 21
+6
30.6%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Corey Crooms for 6 yds to the WMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
30.6%
Jack Salopek run for 1 yd to the WMich 26Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+6
30.5%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 6 yds to the WMich 32Similar
Q1 7:24
3RD & 5
OWN 32
-8
30.4%
Jack Salopek sacked by Zachary Ford for a loss of 8 yards to the WMich 24Similar
Q1 4:46
4TH & 13
OWN 24
+7
31.1%
Nick Mihalic punt for 42 yds , Adam Beale returns for 7 yds to the Toled 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:3569% → 69%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
31.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 13 yds to the WMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
30.8%
Dequan Finn run for no gain to the WMich 46Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
30.8%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 2 yds to the WMich 44Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
31.5%
Dequan Finn pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:3533% → 33%
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
33.1%
Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the WMich 40Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+5
33.1%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 5 yds to the WMich 45Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 4
OWN 45
-10
33.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Salopek,Jack rush right for 3 yards gain to the WMU48 (Culpepper,Judge) PENALTY WMU Holding (Sherwin,Jack) 10 yards from WMU45 to WMU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 14
OWN 35
0
32.0%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Anthony SambucciSimilar
Q1 1:36
4TH & 14
OWN 35
+23
32.7%
Nick Mihalic punt for 49 yds , Adam Beale returns for 23 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q1 1:36
4TH & 14
OWN 35
+1
32.7%
Nick Mihalic punt for 49 yds , Adam Beale returns for 1 yd to the Toled 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:5167% → 66%
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
33.0%
Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the Toled 14Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+5
32.8%
Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the Toled 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
32.8%
Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the Toled 20Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+4
33.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Mikel Barkley for 4 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
33.9%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Mikel BarkleySimilar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
34.5%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:5536% → 35%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
35.8%
Jack Salopek sacked by Desjuan Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 44Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 12
OWN 44
0
35.1%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Anthony SambucciSimilar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 12
OWN 44
0
34.8%
Jack Salopek pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 2:1768% → 73%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
50
+8
32.5%
Peny Boone run for 8 yds to the WMich 42Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+15
32.4%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Mikel Barkley for 15 yds to the WMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
32.0%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the WMich 25Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 8
OPP 25
0
32.0%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+23
32.8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for 23 yds to the WMich 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
27.2%
Tucker Gleason run for 2 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:5930% → 28%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
29.5%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 2 yds to the WMich 37Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+1
29.7%
Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the WMich 36Similar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-4
29.0%
Jack Salopek sacked by Adrian Woliver for a loss of 4 yards to the WMich 32Similar
Q2 9:29
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
28.1%
Nick Mihalic punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the Toled 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12INT TD
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1372% → 64%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
28.5%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-36
36.0%
Keni-H Lovely 36 Yd Interception Return (Palmer Domschke Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:4564% → 63%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+15
36.0%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
35.3%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Thomas ZsirosSimilar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-10
35.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Gleason,Tucker pass complete short left to Boone,Peny for 4 yards to the TOL41 (Barnes,Zaire) PENALTY TOL Holding (Ateman,Kelvin) 10 yards from TOL37 to TOL27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 20
OWN 27
+2
36.3%
Tucker Gleason run for 2 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 18
OWN 29
0
37.0%
TOLEDO Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:24
4TH & 20
OWN 27
0
37.5%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Anthony Sambucci at the WMich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 2 yds · 3:3340% → 38%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
39.5%
Sean Tyler run for 3 yds to the WMich 36Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+17
38.5%
Sean Tyler run for 17 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
41.5%
Jalen Buckley run for 3 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-5
41.5%
PENALTY WMU False Start (Vandervest,Adam) 5 yards from TOL44 to TOL49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+3
40.2%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Corey Crooms for 3 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 9
OPP 46
-5
40.1%
PENALTY WMU False Start (Campbell,Trevor) 5 yards from TOL46 to WMU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 14
OWN 49
-8
38.4%
Jack Salopek sacked by Nate Givhan for a loss of 8 yards to the WMich 41Similar
Q2 3:51
4TH & 22
OWN 41
0
38.4%
Nick Mihalic punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:2363% → 63%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
36.9%
Peny Boone run for 15 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
36.0%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Lenny KuhlSimilar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
36.4%
Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q2 3:51
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
35.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Mikel Barkley) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:28
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
37.4%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 5 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:2444% → 41%
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
43.8%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Malique DieudonneSimilar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
43.5%
Sean Tyler run for 3 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
43.3%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Corey CroomsSimilar
Q2 2:04
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
41.4%
Nick Mihalic punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the Toled 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0162% → 60%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
38.1%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the Toled 10Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+4
38.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Peny Boone for 4 yds to the Toled 14Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 4
OWN 14
0
38.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Peny BooneSimilar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 4
OWN 14
0
40.5%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Anthony Sambucci at the Toled 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18FG
9 plays · 33 yds · 1:0345% → 47%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
44.7%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Corey Crooms for 17 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
45.9%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Anthony SambucciSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+13
45.8%
Jack Salopek run for 13 yds to the Toled 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
45.8%
Jack Salopek run for 1 yd to the Toled 18Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
45.9%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Corey CroomsSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+2
44.4%
Sean Tyler run for 2 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+33
47.4%
Palmer Domschke 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:1154% → 54%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
45.7%
Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
45.3%
Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
45.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jamal Turner for 8 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
43.7%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Peny BooneSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
44.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Larry Stephens for 2 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+5
44.6%
PENALTY WMU Offside 5 yards from TOL42 to TOL47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
43.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Mikel Barkley) declinedSimilar
Q3 12:49
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
46.5%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0349% → 47%
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.6%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Malique DieudonneSimilar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
48.3%
Sean Tyler run for 2 yds to the WMich 27Similar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
47.0%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Corey CroomsSimilar
Q3 11:46
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+17
46.7%
Nick Mihalic punt for 59 yds , Adam Beale returns for 17 yds to the Toled 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21FUMBLE
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:2153% → 53%
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
47.3%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to DeMeer BlankumseeSimilar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+15
47.9%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (Ryan Selig) to the WMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
44.4%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 9 yds to the WMich 40Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+2
44.0%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the WMich 42Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+11
44.8%
Peny Boone run for 11 yds to the WMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
43.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Gleason,Tucker pass complete deep right to Barkley,Mikel for 13 yards to the WMU18 (Lovely,Keni-H) PENALTY TOL Holding (Major,Kendall) 10 yards from WMU31 to WMU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 20
OPP 41
+17
47.0%
Tucker Gleason run for 17 yds to the WMich 31 Tucker Gleason fumbled, recovered by WMich Zaire BarnesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 22TD
3 plays · 69 yds · 1:1252% → 68%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
51.7%
Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the WMich 32Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+5
51.4%
Sean Tyler run for 5 yds to the WMich 37Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+63
68.2%
Sean Tyler run for 63 yds for a TD, (Palmer Domschke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2732% → 28%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
67.6%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Devin Maddox for 6 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-6
66.5%
Tucker Gleason sacked by Braden Fiske for a loss of 6 yards to the Toled 25Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
68.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q3 6:46
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
71.7%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3573% → 72%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
72.6%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Anthony SambucciSimilar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
72.1%
Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the WMich 43Similar
Q3 6:46
3RD & 11
OWN 43
+7
70.4%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Malique Dieudonne for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:11
4TH & 4
50
0
71.8%
Nick Mihalic punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:4529% → 24%
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
70.9%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the Toled 19Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+12
71.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for 12 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
70.3%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to DeMeer BlankumseeSimilar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
70.8%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to DeMeer BlankumseeSimilar
Q3 5:11
3RD & 10
OWN 31
-10
72.2%
Tucker Gleason sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the Toled 21Similar
Q3 3:26
4TH & 20
OWN 21
0
75.8%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 26FG
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:5676% → 84%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
76.2%
Sean Tyler run for 10 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+31
76.5%
Sean Tyler run for 31 yds to the Toled 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
76.8%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Anthony SambucciSimilar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+5
76.8%
Jack Salopek run for 5 yds to the Toled 22 Jack Salopek fumbled, recovered by WMich Jalen BuckleySimilar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 15
OPP 22
+1
74.8%
Jack Salopek run for 1 yd to the Toled 21Similar
Q3 1:30
4TH & 14
OPP 21
+38
84.2%
Palmer Domschke 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2417% → 15%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.6%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
82.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
83.2%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Peny BooneSimilar
Q3 1:06
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
84.7%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1786% → 88%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
85.5%
Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the WMich 36Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+2
88.7%
Jalen Buckley run for 2 yds to the WMich 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
88.5%
Jack Salopek pass incomplete to Malique DieudonneSimilar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
87.8%
Nick Mihalic punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 29DOWNS
10 plays · 41 yds · 3:4017% → 13%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
83.5%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+21
84.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jamal Turner for 21 yds to the WMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
82.3%
Tucker Gleason run for 7 yds to the WMich 40Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 3
OPP 40
0
81.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Mikel BarkleySimilar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+6
82.2%
Tucker Gleason run for 6 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
81.1%
Willie Shaw III run for no gain to the WMich 34Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+5
81.2%
PENALTY WMU Offside (Carter,Andre) 5 yards from WMU34 to WMU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+4
80.7%
Willie Shaw III run for 4 yds to the WMich 25Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+2
82.0%
Willie Shaw III run for 2 yds to the WMich 27Similar
Q4 11:09
4TH & 3
OPP 27
0
87.3%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Mikel BarkleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5091% → 92%
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
91.3%
Jalen Buckley run for no gain to the WMich 27Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+3
91.1%
Jalen Buckley run for 3 yds to the WMich 30Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
91.0%
Jalen Buckley run for no gain to the WMich 30Similar
Q4 9:19
4TH & 7
OWN 30
+3
91.7%
Nick Mihalic punt for 42 yds , Adam Beale returns for 3 yds to the Toled 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 31DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0011% → 10%
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
89.1%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Thomas ZsirosSimilar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+8
89.9%
Jacquez Stuart run for 8 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+1
88.8%
Tucker Gleason run for 1 yd to the Toled 40Similar
Q4 8:19
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
90.0%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Mikel BarkleySimilar
Q4 8:19
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
90.0%
TOLEDO Penalty, Personal Foul (Mikel Barkley) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 32PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:2494% → 95%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
94.1%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 2 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+2
94.0%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 2 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+6
93.8%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 6 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 4
OPP 34
0
94.8%
Nick Mihalic punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 33TD
5 plays · 95 yds · 0:447% → 34%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+57
93.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Devin Maddox for 57 yds to the WMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
91.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+21
91.8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Larry Stephens for 21 yds to the WMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
66.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 17 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 34PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:3686% → 86%
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.3%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 1 yd to the WMich 26Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
86.0%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 1 yd to the WMich 27Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-6
85.1%
Jack Salopek sacked by Nate Bauer for a loss of 6 yards to the WMich 21Similar
Q4 3:35
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
85.8%
Nick Mihalic punt for 44 yds , Adam Beale returns for no gain to the Toled 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 35INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0818% → 17%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
81.7%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jacquez StuartSimilar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
82.9%
Tucker Gleason pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 36PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:5991% → 94%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
90.9%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 4 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 6
OPP 38
0
92.5%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for no gain to the Toled 38Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+2
91.8%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 2 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q4 2:28
4TH & 4
OPP 36
0
93.7%
Nick Mihalic punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 37DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:459% → 11%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
91.3%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jamal TurnerSimilar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
91.5%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to DeMeer BlankumseeSimilar
Q4 2:28
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+9
92.0%
Tucker Gleason run for 9 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
89.3%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jamal TurnerSimilar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
89.3%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jamal TurnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 38END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 1:4396% → 97%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
95.9%
Kneel down by Western Michigan at TOL31 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 12
OPP 31
-2
95.8%
Kneel down by Western Michigan at TOL33 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 33
-2
96.5%
Kneel down by Western Michigan at TOL35 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:11
Tucker Gleason pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 17 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
-23.9
TD · Q3 8:13
Sean Tyler run for 63 yds for a TD, (Palmer Domschke KICK)
+16.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 5:11
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 1 yd to the WMich 26
+12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com