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M-OH

Miami (OH) 29 at Northern Illinois 23

NIU
2022 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2022 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDSAFETYTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Kneel down by Miami (OH) at NIU29 for loss of 2 yards.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:39: Aveon Smith run for 10 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +11.0 pts (now 46%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:37: Aveon Smith run for 15 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +15.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:24: Nevan Cremascoli pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 53 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) — NIU win probability +17.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:48: Aveon Smith pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 47 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +17.5 pts (now 76%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:06: Antario Brown run for 86 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — NIU win probability +19.4 pts (now 47%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9M-OH made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:27M-OH 4th & 5 at M-OH 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:36NIU 4th & 5 at M-OH 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:10M-OH 4th & 3 at M-OH 36, down 3
    Close callPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:50M-OH 4th & 7 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:24M-OH 4th & 18 at M-OH 41, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−1.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:54NIU 4th & 17 at NIU 6, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−2.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:20M-OH 4th & 18 at NIU 46, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−1.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    33.0%−1.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:26NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 21, up 8
    Close callPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.8%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:27NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 34, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:44M-OH 4th & 18 at M-OH 34, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−4.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:08NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 21, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−3.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:24M-OH 4th & 8 at NIU 27, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    32.5%−8.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:37NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 25, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%−3.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:08NIU 4th & 10 at M-OH 31, down 2
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.9 ptsPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    48.4%
    54% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%−2.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:04M-OH 4th & 7 at M-OH 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−3.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:28NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 42, down 3
    Close callPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:02M-OH 4th & 5 at NIU 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    45.7%−18.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:40NIU 4th & 1 at M-OH 26, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    25.8%−5.9
    64% to make
    Punt
    16.0%−15.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3M-OH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 4:45NIU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:39M-OH Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:37M-OH Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:24NIU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:48M-OH Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:06NIU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    46.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    46.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1645% → 44%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
55.5%
Tyre Shelton run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 24Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
55.5%
Aveon Smith run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
55.6%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Mac HippenhammerSimilar
Q1 13:27
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
55.7%
Dom Dzioban punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2FG
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:4056% → 56%
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+55
55.7%
Jaiden Credle run for 55 yds to the MiaOh 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
56.1%
Harrison Waylee run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 13Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+1
56.3%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 12Similar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+1
56.2%
Nevan Cremascoli pass complete to Billy Dozier for 1 yd to the MiaOh 13Similar
Q1 10:36
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+31
56.4%
John Richardson 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1544% → 43%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
56.2%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Kenny TracySimilar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+1
56.3%
Tyre Shelton run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q1 9:34
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+8
56.7%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Tyre Shelton for 8 yds to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q1 9:10
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
56.7%
Dom Dzioban punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 4:1256% → 62%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
56.4%
Jaiden Credle run for 9 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+2
57.1%
Jaiden Credle run for 2 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
57.3%
Jaiden Credle run for 3 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+11
57.4%
Nevan Cremascoli pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 11 yds to the MiaOh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
57.8%
Harrison Waylee run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+9
57.9%
Nevan Cremascoli pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 9 yds to the MiaOh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
58.2%
MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MiaOh 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
58.3%
Jaiden Credle run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 15Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+15
61.8%
Nevan Cremascoli pass complete to Liam Soraghan for 15 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:3941% → 39%
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
59.3%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 13 yds to the MiaOh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
59.0%
Kenny Tracy run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 7
50
0
59.7%
Tyre Shelton run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 7
50
0
60.1%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Miles MarshallSimilar
Q1 2:50
4TH & 7
50
0
60.8%
Dom Dzioban punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6SF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:2560% → 61%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
60.4%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the NoIll 4Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 9
OWN 4
0
60.6%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7PUNT
12 plays · 16 yds · 4:3538% → 35%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
62.0%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Tyre Shelton for 5 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
61.8%
Kevin Davis run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
61.9%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Miles MarshallSimilar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
62.1%
Kevin Davis run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+8
62.3%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 8 yds to the MiaOh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
61.6%
Tyre Shelton run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 11
OWN 48
-5
62.4%
PENALTY MIAMI False Start 5 yards from MIAMI48 to MIAMI43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 16
OWN 43
0
63.5%
Aveon Smith run for no gain to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 16
OWN 43
-5
64.0%
PENALTY MIAMI Illegal Substitution 5 yards from MIAMI43 to MIAMI38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 21
OWN 38
+3
64.2%
Aveon Smith run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 41Similar
Q2 12:24
4TH & 18
OWN 41
0
65.1%
Dom Dzioban punt for 46 yds , Kacper Rutkiewicz returns for no gain to the NoIll 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:1963% → 62%
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
63.1%
Jaiden Credle run for 2 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 8
OWN 15
-11
63.2%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-11 Yards) to the NoIll 4Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 19
OWN 4
+2
62.1%
Harrison Waylee run for 2 yds to the NoIll 6Similar
Q2 10:54
4TH & 17
OWN 6
0
61.8%
Tom Foley punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jalen Walker at the NoIll 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:2837% → 33%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
62.9%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Mac HippenhammerSimilar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
63.1%
Kenny Tracy run for 2 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 8
OPP 36
-10
63.7%
Aveon Smith sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the NoIll 46Similar
Q2 9:20
4TH & 18
OPP 46
0
66.6%
Dom Dzioban punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5464% → 64%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
64.4%
Jaiden Credle run for 4 yds to the NoIll 16Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+4
64.6%
Jaiden Credle run for 4 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+1
65.0%
Jaiden Credle run for 1 yd to the NoIll 21Similar
Q2 7:26
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
64.4%
Tom Foley punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 2:4735% → 46%
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
64.8%
Tyre Shelton run for 8 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+10
64.7%
Aveon Smith run for 10 yds to the NoIll 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
64.1%
Aveon Smith run for 3 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+5
63.9%
Aveon Smith run for 5 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q2 5:04
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+13
65.4%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Jack Coldiron for 13 yds to the NoIll 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
54.4%
Aveon Smith run for 10 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:5660% → 59%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
59.9%
Jaiden Credle run for 1 yd to the NoIll 26Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-3
59.7%
Nevan Cremascoli pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 7 yds to the NoIll 33 NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NoIll 23Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
59.6%
Nevan Cremascoli run for no gain to the NoIll 23Similar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+11
58.5%
Nevan Cremascoli pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 11 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+17
58.7%
Tom Foley punt blocked by Corey Suttle blocked by Corey SuttleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13TD
6 plays · 51 yds · 1:3344% → 62%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
55.7%
Tyre Shelton run for 9 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+3
54.6%
Tyre Shelton run for 3 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
54.8%
Kevin Davis run for 9 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+15
53.3%
(00:55) No Huddle-Shotgun Smith,Aveon pass incomplete short left to Hippenhammer,Mac PENALTY NIU Pass Interference 15 yards from NIU30 to NIU15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
53.2%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Kenny TracySimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
37.8%
Aveon Smith run for 15 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
43.4%
Justin Lynch run for 4 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2546% → 64%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
45.6%
Nevan Cremascoli pass complete to Messiah Travis for 12 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
46.2%
Jaiden Credle run for 1 yd to the NoIll 38Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+9
46.2%
Nevan Cremascoli pass complete to Messiah Travis for 9 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
63.8%
Nevan Cremascoli pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 53 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:1842% → 38%
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
57.7%
Tyre Shelton run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
57.6%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Miles MarshallSimilar
Q3 12:21
3RD & 8
OWN 44
-10
58.9%
Aveon Smith sacked by Nick Alvarado for a loss of 10 yards to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q3 11:44
4TH & 18
OWN 34
0
62.5%
Dom Dzioban punt for 63 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:3160% → 59%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
60.4%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NoIll 5Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+15
60.2%
(11:36) No Huddle Cremascoli,Nevan pass incomplete short left to Rutkiewicz,Kacper PENALTY MIAMI Pass Interference 15 yards from NIU05 to NIU20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
60.9%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the NoIll 20Similar
Q3 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
60.7%
Nevan Cremascoli pass incomplete to Shemar ThorntonSimilar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+1
59.2%
Nevan Cremascoli run for 1 yd to the NoIll 21Similar
Q3 10:08
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
58.7%
Tom Foley punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jalen Walker at the MiaOh 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18FG
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:3742% → 51%
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+30
58.1%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 30 yds to the NoIll 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
55.3%
Tyre Shelton run for 2 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
55.3%
Aveon Smith run for no gain to the NoIll 27Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
57.4%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Miles MarshallSimilar
Q3 8:24
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+44
49.5%
Graham Nicholson 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3451% → 49%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.4%
Jaiden Credle run for no gain to the NoIll 25Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
51.1%
Nevan Cremascoli pass incomplete to Kacper RutkiewiczSimilar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
49.5%
Nevan Cremascoli pass incomplete to Shemar ThorntonSimilar
Q3 7:37
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
48.5%
Tom Foley punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jalen Walker at the MiaOh 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20FUMBLE
7 plays · 6 yds · 2:2953% → 54%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
47.4%
Aveon Smith run for no gain to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
47.6%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Jack ColdironSimilar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+20
48.9%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Matt Bjorson for 20 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
44.9%
Tyre Shelton run for 2 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+7
44.9%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 7 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 1
OPP 31
-10
44.6%
(05:21) No Huddle-Shotgun Smith,Aveon rush left for 7 yards gain to the NIU24 (Pugh,Kyle; Lafayette,Devin) PENALTY MIAMI Holding 10 yards from NIU31 to NIU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:48
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+2
45.7%
Aveon Smith sacked by Devonte O'Malley for a loss of 13 yards to the NORTHERNIL 46 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, O'Malley,Devonte at MIAMI46, End Of Play PENALTY MIAMI Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MiaOh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3257% → 50%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
56.9%
Justin Lynch run for no gain to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
56.8%
Nevan Cremascoli pass incomplete to Messiah TravisSimilar
Q3 4:14
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
54.2%
Nevan Cremascoli pass incomplete to Shemar ThorntonSimilar
Q3 4:08
4TH & 10
OPP 31
0
49.6%
Justin Lynch punt for 10 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 22TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 3:1053% → 76%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
47.5%
Tyre Shelton run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
46.4%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Jack ColdironSimilar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
47.0%
Aveon Smith run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+21
49.2%
Aveon Smith run for 21 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
43.3%
Kevin Davis run for 2 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
41.4%
Tyre Shelton run for no gain to the NoIll 47Similar
Q3 0:48
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+47
23.9%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 47 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23TD
3 plays · 91 yds · 0:2927% → 47%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
27.3%
Antario Brown run for 5 yds to the NoIll 14Similar
Q3 0:06
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+86
46.7%
Antario Brown run for 86 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5657% → 54%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
43.3%
Tyre Shelton run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q4 14:37
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+2
43.3%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Kenny Tracy for 2 yds to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
44.4%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Mac HippenhammerSimilar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
46.2%
Dom Dzioban punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Kacper Rutkiewicz at the NoIll 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:2148% → 44%
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
48.0%
Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
50.7%
Nevan Cremascoli pass incomplete to Messiah TravisSimilar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+2
47.0%
Nevan Cremascoli pass complete to Billy Dozier for 2 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q4 12:28
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
43.9%
Tom Foley punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Jalen Walker at the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 26FG
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:1463% → 74%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+32
37.5%
Aveon Smith pass complete to Miles Marshall for 32 yds to the NoIll 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
34.6%
Kevin Davis run for 5 yds to the NoIll 19Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+2
34.2%
Tyre Shelton run for 2 yds to the NoIll 17Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+6
33.5%
Aveon Smith run for 6 yds to the NoIll 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
31.0%
Kenny Tracy run for 4 yds to the NoIll 7Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+1
30.2%
Kevin Davis run for 1 yd to the NoIll 6Similar
Q4 9:07
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
31.8%
Aveon Smith pass incomplete to Nate MuerschSimilar
Q4 9:02
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+24
26.0%
Graham Nicholson 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 27INT
11 plays · 40 yds · 4:0534% → 33%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
33.6%
Nevan Cremascoli pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 13 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
35.2%
Jaiden Credle run for 8 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+19
37.8%
Nevan Cremascoli pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 19 yds to the MiaOh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
39.8%
Nevan Cremascoli pass complete to Liam Soraghan for 4 yds to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+2
38.4%
Jaiden Credle run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+3
35.3%
Billy Dozier run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 26Similar
Q4 5:40
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+1
32.1%
Nevan Cremascoli pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 1 yd to the MiaOh 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
36.7%
Nevan Cremascoli pass incomplete to Tristen TewesSimilar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-10
36.5%
(05:16) No Huddle-Shotgun Credle,Jaiden rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIAMI23 (Ugwu,Brian; Salopek,Matthew) PENALTY NIU Holding 10 yards from MIAMI25 to MIAMI35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 20
OPP 35
0
32.5%
Nevan Cremascoli pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 28END OF GAME
12 plays · 53 yds · 4:3683% → 96%
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
17.3%
Aveon Smith run for 15 yds to the MiaOh 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
14.7%
Tyre Shelton run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+37
12.6%
Aveon Smith run for 37 yds to the NoIll 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
9.2%
Tyre Shelton run for 2 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+7
8.0%
Aveon Smith run for 7 yds to the NoIll 18Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+3
7.9%
Aveon Smith run for 3 yds to the NoIll 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
5.8%
Kneel down by Miami (OH) at NIU25 for loss of 10 yards.Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 20
OPP 25
-2
4.6%
Kneel down by Miami (OH) at NIU27 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 22
OPP 27
-2
4.0%
Kneel down by Miami (OH) at NIU29 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:06
Antario Brown run for 86 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+19.4
TD · Q3 13:24
Nevan Cremascoli pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 53 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)
+17.5
TD · Q3 0:48
Aveon Smith pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 47 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK)
-17.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com