Try the model
WMU

Western Michigan 12 at Central Michigan 10

CMU
2022 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2022 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGSAFETYFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:16 · Luke Elzinga punt for 40 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialTime remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 69Pregame prior+4.7Home team on offense+8.3Garbage-time factor+2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Score differential+0.8Time remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:39: Sean Tyler run for 53 yds for a TD, (Palmer Domschke KICK) — CMU win probability +26.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 3:55: Marshall Meeder 24 yd FG GOOD — CMU win probability +8.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. SAFETY · Q4 3:57: Andre Carter Safety — CMU win probability +5.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 1:52: Palmer Domschke 25 Yd Field Goal — CMU win probability +1.6 pts (now 73%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  5. INT · Q4 0:52: Jase Bauer pass intercepted — CMU win probability +27.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6WMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 10:58CMU 4th & 9 at WMU 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    74.7%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:06WMU 4th & 6 at CMU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    26.6%−1.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00WMU 4th & 1 at CMU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    28.6%−0.7
    64% to make
    Punt
    26.8%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:07CMU 4th & 2 at CMU 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:29WMU 4th & 11 at CMU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:13CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:58WMU 4th & 3 at CMU 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.0%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    29.6%−7.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:23WMU 4th & 17 at WMU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−4.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:31WMU 4th & 6 at WMU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−0.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:23CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−2.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:55CMU 4th & 6 at WMU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    53.8%−10.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:55WMU 4th & 11 at WMU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−3.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:16WMU 4th & 5 at CMU 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    31.0%−1.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    30.6%−2.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:16WMU 4th & 8 at CMU 40, down 3
    Close callPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    29.5%−1.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:16CMU 4th & 12 at CMU 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−3.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:39WMU 4th & 10 at CMU 49, down 4
    Close callPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%−0.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:52WMU 4th & 8 at CMU 8, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−1.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−17.3
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1TD
1 play · 60 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
77.1%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 60 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2PUNT
14 plays · 31 yds · 10:5878% → 75%
Q1 10:58
4TH & 9
OPP 39
0
77.6%
Luke Elzinga punt for 37 ydsSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
74.7%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 28Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+4
74.5%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 4 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+28
74.2%
Bert Emanuel Jr. pass complete to Jalen McGaughy for 28 yds to the WMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-3
75.9%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the WMich 43Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+3
75.3%
Bert Emanuel Jr. pass complete to Tyson Davis for 3 yds to the WMich 40Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+1
75.4%
Bert Emanuel Jr. pass complete to Jalen McGaughy for 1 yd to the WMich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3TD
5 plays · 98 yds · 8:3924% → 27%
Q1 8:39
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+53
76.3%
Sean Tyler run for 53 yds for a TD, (Palmer Domschke KICK)Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+18
74.0%
Treyson Bourguet run for 3 yds to the WMich 5 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jacques Bristol) to the WMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
73.8%
Treyson Bourguet pass complete to Keni-H Lovely for 8 yds to the WMich 28Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+11
73.3%
Treyson Bourguet run for 11 yds to the WMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
73.1%
Treyson Bourguet pass complete to Corey Crooms for 8 yds to the WMich 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4MISSED FG
15 plays · 56 yds · 1:0626% → 27%
Q1 1:06
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+25
73.8%
Palmer Domschke 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
73.5%
Treyson Bourguet pass incomplete to Malique Dieudonne, broken up by Donte KentSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
73.7%
Sean Tyler run for 9 yds to the WMich 44Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
72.9%
Sean Tyler run for 2 yds to the WMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
72.8%
Treyson Bourguet sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the WMich 41Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+7
73.5%
Sean Tyler run for 7 yds to the WMich 48Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+17
73.2%
Treyson Bourguet run for 17 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
72.3%
Treyson Bourguet pass complete to Corey Crooms for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 39Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 14
OPP 39
+2
73.1%
Sean Tyler run for 2 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 37
+10
73.3%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive holding (Quindario Lee) to the CMich 27Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+1
72.6%
Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the CMich 26Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+13
73.2%
Sean Tyler run for 13 yds to the CMich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
72.1%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 3 yds to the CMich 10Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+1
72.1%
Jalen Buckley run for 1 yd to the CMich 9Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
72.6%
Treyson Bourguet pass incomplete to Corey Crooms, broken up by De'Javion StepneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5375% → 74%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
74.6%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 5 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
74.8%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
74.3%
Similar
Q2 14:07
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
73.6%
Luke Elzinga punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 6PUNT
1 play · 21 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 11:29
4TH & 11
OPP 49
0
73.1%
Nick Mihalic punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7PUNT
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:5373% → 72%
Q2 8:06
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+5
72.6%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 5 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q2 7:13
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
72.0%
Luke Elzinga punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 8MISSED FG
1 play · 89 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 0:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
65.1%
Palmer Domschke 22 yd FG MISSED , Thomas Incoom return for no gain to the CMich 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9Uncategorized
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q3 8:23
4TH & 17
OWN 28
+52
66.9%
Nick Mihalic punt for 42 yds CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding (Jarvarius Sims) to the CMich 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 13:3132% → 39%
Q3 13:31
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
67.9%
Nick Mihalic punt for 46 ydsSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
59.9%
Treyson Bourguet run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 21Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+6
60.6%
Sean Tyler run for 6 yds to the WMich 27Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
61.0%
pass incomplete to Keni-H LovelySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 11:2366% → 64%
Q3 11:23
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
65.9%
Luke Elzinga punt for 48 ydsSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
64.0%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 2 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+5
64.0%
Lew Nichols III run for 5 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 34
-7
64.1%
Bert Emanuel Jr. sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the CMich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12FG
1 play · 74 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q3 3:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
72.4%
Marshall Meeder 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13PUNT
2 plays · -1 yds · 2:5526% → 29%
Q3 2:55
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+2
74.1%
Nick Mihalic punt for 36 yds , Alec Ward returns for 2 yds to the CMich 42 Alec Ward fumbled, recovered by WMich Corey Crooms , return for no gain to the CMich 42Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
70.9%
Sean Tyler run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14PUNT
3 plays · 2 yds · 1:0032% → 30%
Q3 2:16
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+3
67.7%
Treyson Bourguet pass complete to Malique Dieudonne for 3 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q3 2:16
4TH & 5
OPP 37
-4
69.3%
Treyson Bourguet run for 6 yds to the CMich 31 WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive holding (Trevor Campbell) to the CMich 40Similar
Q3 1:16
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
70.3%
Nick Mihalic punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 5:4475% → 73%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
75.2%
Lew Nichols III run for 5 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 31
-2
75.7%
Lew Nichols III run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+8
73.9%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Finn Hogan for 8 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
76.1%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
77.1%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+6
76.3%
Jase Bauer run for 6 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
77.7%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
50
+2
77.7%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 2 yds to the WMich 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 48
-5
77.1%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Carlos Carriere CENTRAL MICH Penalty, inelgible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the CMich 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 47
0
74.8%
pass incomplete to Tyson DavisSimilar
Q4 9:16
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
72.6%
Luke Elzinga punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 38 yds · 5:3928% → 22%
Q4 5:39
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
71.7%
Nick Mihalic punt for 44 ydsSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
79.1%
Corey Crooms run for a loss of 3 yards to the WMich 10Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 10
+23
79.4%
Treyson Bourguet pass complete to Corey Crooms for 23 yds to the WMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
77.0%
Treyson Bourguet run for 18 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
73.6%
Treyson Bourguet run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 49Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 49
0
76.0%
Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+2
78.0%
Treyson Bourguet run for 2 yds to the CMich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17SF
3 plays · 1 yds · 3:5783% → 74%
Q4 3:57
3RD & 9
OWN 6
0
83.3%
Andre Carter SafetySimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
74.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the CMich 7Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 7
-1
73.9%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18FG
8 plays · 57 yds · 2:0433% → 35%
Q4 2:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
67.5%
Sean Tyler run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 11Similar
Q4 2:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+3
71.7%
Sean Tyler run for 3 yds to the CMich 8Similar
Q4 1:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
73.3%
Palmer Domschke 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
78.1%
Treyson Bourguet run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 34Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
78.6%
pass incomplete to Corey CroomsSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+36
80.3%
Treyson Bourguet pass complete to Corey Crooms for 36 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+20
66.7%
Sean Tyler run for 20 yds to the CMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
65.3%
Sean Tyler run for 2 yds to the CMich 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:5293% → 88%
Q4 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
92.8%
Jase Bauer pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 32
0
88.2%
pass incomplete to Jalen McGaughySimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+4
87.8%
Jase Bauer run for 4 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-10
87.3%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding (Davis Heinzen) to the CMich 14Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 14
+18
88.0%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Cade Conley for 18 yds to the CMich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
80.2%
Treyson Bourguet run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 25Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 25
-2
80.4%
Treyson Bourguet run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-80.4
INT · Q4 0:52
Jase Bauer pass intercepted
+27.5
TD · Q1 8:39
Sean Tyler run for 53 yds for a TD, (Palmer Domschke KICK)
+26.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com