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BGSU

Bowling Green 42 at Toledo 35

TOL
2022 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2022 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreBGSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-10.7TOL 29.0%Mason Lawler 35 yd FG GOODAWAY 27 - HOME 14 · Q3 5:31
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:31 · Mason Lawler 35 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 123Pregame prior+11.0Home team on offense−23.2Score differential−11.2Garbage-time factor−6.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 10:23: Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jamal Turner for 2 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +17.8 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  2. TD · Q4 9:20: Matt McDonald pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 59 yds for a TD, (Mason Lawler KICK) — BGSU win probability +21.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:09: Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 3 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +18.0 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 0:51: Tucker Gleason run for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +65.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:09: Matt McDonald pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 42 yds for a TD, (Matt McDonald pass to Ta'ron Keith for Two-Point Conversion) — BGSU win probability +56.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 12 of 12BGSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:47TOL 4th & 6 at TOL 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:47TOL 4th & 6 at TOL 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:55BGSU 4th & 16 at TOL 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    17.7%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:55BGSU 4th & 16 at TOL 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    17.7%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 9:10TOL 4th & 13 at TOL 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 5:53TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:35TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:19BGSU 4th & 9 at BGSU 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:00TOL 4th & 18 at TOL 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−2.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:05TOL 4th & 8 at BGSU 18, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    47.0%−4.8
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:51BGSU 4th & 7 at BGSU 18, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−1.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:26TOL 4th & 4 at BGSU 4, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    49.8%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    45.3%−5.0
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:05BGSU 4th & 12 at BGSU 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−2.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:37BGSU 4th & 10 at TOL 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−1.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    37.1%−7.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:55BGSU 4th & 3 at BGSU 9, up 10
    Close callPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%−0.8
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:31BGSU 4th & 9 at TOL 17, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−2.0
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    47.1%−11.6
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:31TOL 4th & 20 at TOL 27, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−3.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:04BGSU 4th & 23 at BGSU 35, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−6.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 15:00TOL 4th & 4 at BGSU 49, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.1%−0.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 15:00TOL 4th & 1 at BGSU 6, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.3%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    27.6%−2.7
    91% to make
    Punt
    20.5%−9.7
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:36BGSU 4th & 4 at BGSU 45, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%−1.2
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:52TOL 4th & 7 at BGSU 30, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    12.9%−5.6
    56% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−7.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BGSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 7:41BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:50BGSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:00BGSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:20TOL Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:26TOL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:23TOL Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:20BGSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:09TOL Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.8%−1.8
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:51TOL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.9%−8.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:09BGSU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    84.4%−2.0
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    86.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0780% → 80%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
80.1%
Micah Kelly run for no gain to the Toled 15Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
80.1%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+4
80.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Mikel Barkley for 4 yds to the Toled 19Similar
Q1 13:47
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
79.8%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 36 ydsSimilar
Q1 13:47
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
79.8%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 10 yds · 2:5220% → 21%
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
79.7%
Jaison Patterson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+3
79.7%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 5
50
+11
79.7%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 11 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-6
79.7%
Matt McDonald sacked by Desjuan Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 16
OPP 45
-5
79.8%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, False Start (Bronson Warner) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 21
50
+10
79.8%
Jaison Patterson run for 10 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 11
OPP 40
-5
79.8%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, False Start (Jaison Patterson) to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 16
OPP 45
0
79.8%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:55
4TH & 16
OPP 45
0
79.1%
Sami Sir punt for 31 ydsSimilar
Q1 10:55
4TH & 16
OPP 45
0
79.1%
Sami Sir punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:4579% → 78%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
79.1%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 8
OWN 16
-1
79.0%
Micah Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 15Similar
Q1 10:55
3RD & 9
OWN 15
-4
78.9%
Tucker Gleason sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 11Similar
Q1 9:10
4TH & 13
OWN 11
0
78.3%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 4TD
4 plays · 38 yds · 1:2922% → 25%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
78.1%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+13
78.1%
Camden Orth run for 13 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
78.0%
Camden Orth run for no gain to the Toled 25 Camden Orth fumbled, recovered by BwGrn Bronson WarnerSimilar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
75.3%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 25 yds for a TD, (Mason Lawler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4876% → 75%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
76.1%
Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 6 yards to the Toled 19Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+11
76.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 11 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+1
76.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 1 yd to the Toled 31Similar
Q1 5:53
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
74.7%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 37 yds, downed at the BwGrn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 6TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 3:0325% → 32%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+50
74.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 50 yds to the Toled 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
74.0%
Jaison Patterson run for 5 yds to the Toled 13Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+9
74.0%
Harold Fannin Jr. run for 9 yds to the Toled 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
74.0%
Camden Orth run for no gain to the Toled 4Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
74.0%
Harold Fannin Jr. run for 1 yd to the Toled 3Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
68.0%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Andrew Bench for 3 yds for a TD, (Mason Lawler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:0569% → 68%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+20
68.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 20 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
68.8%
Micah Kelly run for 5 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
69.2%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
69.1%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:35
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
67.9%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:1633% → 37%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
67.1%
Matt McDonald pass complete to CJ Lewis for 8 yds to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+6
66.8%
Matt McDonald pass complete to CJ Lewis for 6 yds to the BwGrn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
64.5%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 3 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
64.5%
Jaison Patterson run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-1
64.7%
Matt McDonald run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 44
-5
65.0%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Delay Of Game (Tyrone Broden) to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
63.0%
Sami Sir punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9PUNT TD
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:1964% → 52%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
64.0%
Tucker Gleason sacked by Karl Brooks for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 26Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 14
OWN 26
0
63.8%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 14
OWN 26
-4
63.5%
Tucker Gleason sacked by Walter Haire and Karl Brooks for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 22Similar
Q2 12:00
4TH & 18
OWN 22
0
51.6%
Patrick Day 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Mason Lawler Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10MISSED FG
7 plays · 57 yds · 2:5552% → 48%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
51.9%
Tucker Gleason run for 8 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+21
52.5%
Jacquez Stuart run for 21 yds to the BwGrn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
53.8%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the BwGrn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
54.3%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 8
OPP 18
-4
54.3%
Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 4 yards to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 12
OPP 22
+4
53.4%
Tucker Gleason run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q2 9:05
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+36
48.4%
Thomas Cluckey 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:5358% → 59%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
41.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 4 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
41.5%
Matt McDonald pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12TD
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:5249% → 55%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
48.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
48.9%
Micah Kelly run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 9Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+5
48.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Micah Kelly for 5 yds to the BwGrn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
48.9%
Peny Boone run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 5Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
48.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
55.4%
Tucker Gleason run for 5 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2547% → 48%
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
53.2%
Jaison Patterson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 17Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+1
53.2%
Camden Orth run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
53.6%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:51
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
51.9%
Sami Sir punt for 46 yds, downed at the Toled 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 3:2553% → 59%
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
52.6%
Micah Kelly run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 32Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 14
OWN 32
0
51.6%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 14
OWN 32
+21
51.1%
Tucker Gleason run for 21 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
54.1%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+27
54.0%
Tucker Gleason run for 27 yds to the BwGrn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+19
54.8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Thomas Zsiros for 19 yds to the BwGrn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
54.8%
Micah Kelly run for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 4Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
54.8%
Peny Boone run for no gain to the BwGrn 4Similar
Q2 1:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
47.7%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
59.2%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Micah Kelly for 4 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 1:0144% → 44%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
55.6%
Jaison Patterson run for no gain to the BwGrn 14Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-4
55.8%
Jaison Patterson run for a loss of 4 yards to the BwGrn 10Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 14
OWN 10
+2
55.3%
Jaison Patterson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 12Similar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 12
OWN 12
+3
56.0%
Sami Sir punt for 30 yds , Adam Beale returns for 3 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0260% → 60%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
59.7%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
59.5%
Tucker Gleason pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17FG
6 plays · 59 yds · 1:1945% → 50%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
54.8%
Jaison Patterson run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+54
53.8%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 54 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
51.4%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
51.5%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
52.4%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:37
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+39
50.4%
Mason Lawler 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18FUMBLE
6 plays · 73 yds · 1:5850% → 51%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
49.6%
Micah Kelly run for 5 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
50.2%
Micah Kelly run for 8 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
50.8%
Micah Kelly run for 2 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+31
51.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 31 yds to the BwGrn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
53.9%
Micah Kelly run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+28
51.4%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to DeMeer Blankumsee for 28 yds DeMeer Blankumsee fumbled, recovered by BwGrn Tyrone BrodenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4452% → 51%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
48.0%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 10
OWN 2
0
48.3%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jalen Grant) declinedSimilar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 8
OWN 4
0
49.2%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:39
4TH & 8
OWN 4
+5
49.8%
SIR, Sami punt 33 yards to the BGS37, BEALE, Adam return 0 yards to the BGS37 (LORFILS, Darius;HORNE, Brock). PENALTY TOL Running Into the kicker on VANDEROSS III, Junior enforced 5 yards from the BGS4 to the BGS9. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:55
4TH & 3
OWN 9
0
49.3%
Sami Sir punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20INT
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:3049% → 49%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
49.3%
Micah Kelly run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+6
49.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Micah Kelly for 6 yds to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+3
49.2%
Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
49.1%
Tucker Gleason pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 3:5455% → 71%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
45.2%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Matt McDonald for 3 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+48
45.0%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 48 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
42.5%
Jaison Patterson run for no gain to the Toled 28Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
42.8%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+10
43.7%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 10 yds to the Toled 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
42.5%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Toled 23Similar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 15
OPP 23
0
42.7%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 15
OPP 23
-5
39.2%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, False Start (Tunde Fatukasi) to the Toled 28Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 20
OPP 28
+7
39.1%
Matt McDonald run for 7 yds to the Toled 21Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 13
OPP 21
+4
39.7%
Jaison Patterson run for 4 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q3 5:31
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+35
29.0%
Mason Lawler 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 2:0037% → 30%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
36.6%
TOLEDO Penalty, Delay Of Game (Tucker Gleason) to the Toled 32Similar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 15
OWN 32
-10
35.6%
GLEASON, Tucker pass to the left complete for 40 yards to MADDOX, Devin caught at the BGS28 and advanced to the BGS28, End of Play. PENALTY TOL Holding on TURNER, Jamal enforced 10 yards from the TOL32 to the TOL22 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:31
1ST & 25
OWN 22
-3
35.3%
Micah Kelly run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 19Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 28
OWN 19
+6
35.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jamal Turner for 6 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 22
OWN 25
+2
34.2%
Tucker Gleason run for 2 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q3 3:31
4TH & 20
OWN 27
0
30.2%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 41 yds, downed at the BwGrn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 3:2776% → 79%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
24.4%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 6 yds to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+10
23.2%
Jaison Patterson run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
22.9%
Jaison Patterson run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 9
OWN 49
-9
23.0%
Matt McDonald sacked by Jamal Hines for a loss of 9 yards to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 18
OWN 40
-10
24.0%
MCDONALD, Matt scrambles to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the BGS45 (ALEXANDER, Darius;HINES, Jamal). PENALTY BGS Holding enforced 10 yards from the BGS40 to the BGS30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 28
OWN 30
+5
25.2%
Jaison Patterson run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q3 0:04
4TH & 23
OWN 35
0
20.8%
Sami Sir punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the Toled 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 4:3727% → 50%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
26.7%
Tucker Gleason run for 7 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+7
28.1%
Peny Boone run for 7 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
27.5%
Tucker Gleason run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 48
-1
29.5%
Peny Boone run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
28.5%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 49
+34
26.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Thomas Zsiros for 34 yds to the BwGrn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
31.7%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+8
31.7%
Tucker Gleason run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 7Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+1
29.8%
Micah Kelly run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 6Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+2
29.2%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
31.7%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 2Similar
Q4 10:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
49.6%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jamal Turner for 2 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 25TD
3 plays · 66 yds · 0:5869% → 90%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
30.8%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
31.2%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Jaison Patterson for 7 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+59
9.7%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 59 yds for a TD, (Mason Lawler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 4:0617% → 40%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
16.7%
GLEASON, Tucker pass to the left incomplete intended for ZSIROS, Thomas thrown to the TOL40; QB hurried by HAIRE, Walter. PENALTY BGS Holding enforced 10 yards from the TOL23 to the TOL33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
17.3%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
17.2%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+13
15.9%
Tucker Gleason run for 13 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+24
18.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Devin Maddox for 24 yds to the BwGrn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
22.1%
Micah Kelly run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+6
22.4%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Micah Kelly for 6 yds to the BwGrn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
22.4%
Micah Kelly run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 12
OPP 21
-8
21.3%
Tucker Gleason sacked by Dontrez Brown for a loss of 8 yards to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q4 9:15
3RD & 20
OPP 29
+25
18.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Devin Maddox for 25 yds to the BwGrn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
22.4%
Micah Kelly run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 3Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
40.4%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 3 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 21 yds · 2:1980% → 85%
Q4 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+6
19.6%
Jaison Patterson run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q4 4:55
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
19.4%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 25
OWN 24
+15
22.2%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 15 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
14.7%
Sami Sir punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the Toled 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 28TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 1:4527% → 84%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+14
26.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jamal Turner for 14 yds to the Toled 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
28.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Vinny Sciury) to the Toled 19Similar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 20
OWN 19
+20
26.9%
Tucker Gleason run for 20 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+28
29.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Devin Maddox for 28 yds to the BwGrn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
37.1%
Tucker Gleason run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
37.6%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
22.0%
Tucker Gleason pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:52
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+29
18.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 29 yds to the BwGrn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.6%
Tucker Gleason run for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 29TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 0:3833% → 95%
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
67.5%
Matt McDonald sacked by Dyontae Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 15
OWN 23
0
69.9%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 15
OWN 23
+35
72.3%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 35 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
59.4%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
61.2%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:09
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+42
4.7%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 42 yds for a TD, (Matt McDonald pass to Ta'ron Keith for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 30END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · 18 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+18
10.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 18 yds to the Toled 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:51
Tucker Gleason run for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
+65.3
TD · Q4 0:09
Matt McDonald pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 42 yds for a TD, (Matt McDonald pass to Ta'ron Keith for Two-Point Conversion)
-56.5
TD · Q4 9:20
Matt McDonald pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 59 yds for a TD, (Mason Lawler KICK)
-21.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com