Try the model
BUF

Buffalo 27 at Central Michigan 31

CMU
2022 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2022 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+4.5CMU 42.7%Marshall Meeder 40 yd FG GOOD BUFFALOPenalty, Illegal Formation (JustinMarshall) declinedAWAY 24 - HOME 17 · Q3 5:02
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:02 · Marshall Meeder 40 yd FG GOOD BUFFALO Penalty, Illegal Formation (Justin Marshall) declined
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 119Home team on offense−6.2Pregame prior+3.5Score differential−2.9Garbage-time factor−3.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:55: Al-Jay Henderson run for 30 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +13.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:50: Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 75 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK) — CMU win probability +12.1 pts (now 40%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:13: Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 87 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK) — CMU win probability +21.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 9:42: Alex McNulty 54 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +13.0 pts (now 63%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:29: Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK) — CMU win probability +30.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6BUF made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 14:45BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    41.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:03BUF 4th & 13 at BUF 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:35CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00BUF 4th & 3 at CMU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    42.2%−1.0
    25% to make
    Punt
    42.8%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:58CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−1.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:37CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:20BUF 4th & 10 at CMU 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    65.8%−4.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:45BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 37, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    63.1%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:26CMU 4th & 2 at BUF 2, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    33.5%−1.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−9.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:59BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 8, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−<0.1
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:02CMU 4th & 8 at BUF 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−8.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:34BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    44.7%−4.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:42BUF 4th & 8 at CMU 36, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.6%−1.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    44.7%−1.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:57BUF 4th & 12 at BUF 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−1.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:30CMU 4th & 4 at BUF 44, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    81.7%−4.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%−2.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:03BUF 4th & 1 at CMU 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    18.4%−7.3
    68% to make
    Punt
    7.3%−18.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:53BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:54CMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:48BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:55BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:50CMU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:13CMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:29CMU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1TD
16 plays · 71 yds · 6:5239% → 43%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
60.8%
Cole Snyder run for 5 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+1
60.7%
Cole Snyder run for 1 yd to the Buff 33Similar
Q1 14:45
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+5
60.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Mike Washington for 5 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q1 14:45
4TH & 1
OWN 38
+11
60.8%
Mike Washington run for 11 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
60.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 17 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
60.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 6 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+6
60.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 6 yds to the CMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-15
60.2%
BUFFALO Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the CMich 35Similar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 23
OPP 35
+5
60.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Robbie Mangas for 5 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 18
OPP 30
+14
60.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 14 yds to the CMich 16Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+6
60.4%
Cole Snyder run for 6 yds to the CMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
60.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 8 yds to the CMich 2Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
60.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the CMich 1Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.3%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:5959% → 62%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+17
59.0%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 17 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
59.4%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Finn HoganSimilar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+2
59.3%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+14
59.0%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 14 yds to the Buff 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
59.4%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 3Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
59.4%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 1Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.9%
De'Javion Stepney run for 1 yd for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5139% → 39%
Q1 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.6%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.6%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
61.0%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q1 4:03
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
61.3%
Anthony Venneri punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Alec Ward at the CMich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:2861% → 61%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
61.0%
De'Javion Stepney run for 5 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q1 4:03
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+10
61.8%
De'Javion Stepney run for 10 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 15
OWN 29
-5
60.3%
PENALTY CMU Delay Of Game 5 yards from CMU29 to CMU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:03
3RD & 20
OWN 24
+12
60.3%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 12 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q1 1:35
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
60.5%
Luke Elzinga punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD
15 plays · 90 yds · 6:4740% → 51%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
60.2%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the Buff 14Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+9
60.1%
Mike Washington run for 9 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
60.0%
Cole Snyder run for 3 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+5
59.9%
Mike Washington run for 5 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+5
59.7%
Cole Snyder run for 5 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
59.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Trevor Borland for 1 yd to the Buff 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+11
59.6%
Cole Snyder run for 11 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
58.6%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
50
0
58.4%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
50
+5
58.9%
Cole Snyder run for 5 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 45
+4
59.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 4 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
58.4%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+4
58.4%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+9
58.4%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 9 yds to the CMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
49.5%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 25 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5052% → 51%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.2%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Tyson DavisSimilar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
52.1%
De'Javion Stepney run for 2 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
51.4%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Carlos CarriereSimilar
Q2 8:58
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
50.7%
Luke Elzinga punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Quian Williams at the Buff 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7TD
4 plays · 74 yds · 2:0349% → 62%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
51.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+1
50.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the Buff 31Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+39
51.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 39 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
38.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 30 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:1840% → 39%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.8%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for no gain to the CMich 25Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
39.7%
De'Javion Stepney run for 2 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
39.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Richardson,Daniel pass incomplete short middle to Hogan,Finn, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UAB Pass Interference (Cobb,Keyshawn) 9 yards from CMU27 to CMU36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
40.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Finn Hogan for 4 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+1
41.2%
De'Javion Stepney run for 1 yd to the CMich 41 De'Javion Stepney fumbled, recovered by CMich De'Javion StepneySimilar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
41.2%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Jalen McGaughySimilar
Q2 4:37
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
38.7%
Luke Elzinga punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Quian Williams at the Buff 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9FG
18 plays · 63 yds · 4:1763% → 75%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
37.1%
Mike Washington run for 9 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+2
36.8%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
37.0%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+9
35.1%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 9 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
34.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+15
34.8%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 15 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
33.8%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the CMich 47Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 9
OPP 47
-3
33.9%
Cole Snyder sacked by Jason Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 12
50
+15
28.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ray Embry for 15 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
27.2%
Cole Snyder sacked by Thomas Incoom for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 40Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+16
27.6%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 16 yds to the CMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
27.0%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
27.3%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Cole HarritySimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
26.4%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+42
25.2%
Alex McNulty 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10END OF HALF
7 plays · 60 yds · 0:2031% → 40%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
30.7%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Christian Brown for 9 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
31.0%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Cade Conley for no gain to the CMich 34Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+12
30.7%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Christian Brown for 12 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+39
39.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Cade Conley for 39 yds to the CENTMICH 15 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass Illegal Block in Back ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
39.5%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 75 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0560% → 62%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
39.6%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the Buff 31Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+3
39.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q3 14:50
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+3
40.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 3 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q3 12:45
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
38.2%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Ron Cook Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:1941% → 38%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
41.4%
Daniel Richardson run for 9 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+4
43.2%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
43.2%
De'Javion Stepney run for 1 yd to the Buff 23Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+22
43.2%
Bert Emanuel Jr. pass complete to Cade Conley for 22 yds to the Buff 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
43.2%
De'Javion Stepney run for no gain to the Buff 1Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.2%
De'Javion Stepney run for 1 yd to the Buff 2Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
41.5%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Finn HoganSimilar
Q3 9:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
37.6%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Carlos CarriereSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2763% → 63%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
36.7%
PENALTY CMU Offside (Whiteside,Justin) 5 yards from UAB02 to UAB07. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 5
OWN 7
0
36.7%
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the Buff 7Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+1
36.9%
Cole Snyder run for 1 yd to the Buff 8Similar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 4
OWN 8
0
37.6%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q3 7:59
4TH & 4
OWN 8
0
37.4%
Anthony Venneri punt for 42 yds , Alec Ward returns for no gain to the CMich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15FG
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:5738% → 43%
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
37.6%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 1 yd to the CMich 48Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+11
37.0%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 11 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
38.3%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 17 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
40.4%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 1 yd to the Buff 23Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+1
40.4%
De'Javion Stepney run for 1 yd to the Buff 22Similar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
38.2%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to De'Javion StepneySimilar
Q3 5:02
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+40
42.7%
Marshall Meeder 40 yd FG GOOD BUFFALO Penalty, Illegal Formation (Justin Marshall) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:2364% → 66%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
35.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
35.6%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
35.6%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
34.8%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+6
36.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 6 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
34.5%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Quian WilliamsSimilar
Q3 1:34
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
34.1%
Anthony Venneri punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Alec Ward at the CMich 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17TD
2 plays · 87 yds · 0:2138% → 60%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
38.0%
Bert Emanuel Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+87
59.5%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 87 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18INT
11 plays · 33 yds · 4:5045% → 50%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
55.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 11 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
54.0%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the Buff 37Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+6
54.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Trevor Borland for 6 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+2
51.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+3
53.6%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
50.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the Buff 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+1
51.1%
Cole Snyder run for 1 yd to the Buff 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+11
53.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 11 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
50.4%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the CMich 42Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 11
OPP 42
0
49.8%
Cole Snyder pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19FUMBLE
1 play · -12 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
50
-12
64.7%
Bert Emanuel Jr. sacked by Keyshawn Cobb for a loss of 12 yards to the CMich 38 Bert Emanuel Jr. fumbled, recovered by Buff Damian Jackson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3351% → 63%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
49.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Trevor Borland for 2 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
49.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the CMich 36Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 8
OPP 36
0
50.0%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Cole HarritySimilar
Q4 9:42
4TH & 8
OPP 36
+54
37.0%
Alex McNulty 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 2:0949% → 84%
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
48.8%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 17 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
50.4%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q4 9:38
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+12
53.4%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 12 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
53.3%
Bert Emanuel Jr. pass incomplete to Cade ConleySimilar
Q4 9:38
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+21
53.0%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 21 yds to the Buff 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.5%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 1:3027% → 24%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
73.3%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
73.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 7 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+1
72.9%
Cole Snyder run for 1 yd to the Buff 30Similar
Q4 7:27
4TH & 2
OWN 30
-5
74.7%
PENALTY UAB Delay Of Game 5 yards from UAB30 to UAB25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:27
4TH & 7
OWN 25
-5
75.7%
PENALTY UAB Delay Of Game 5 yards from UAB25 to UAB20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:57
4TH & 12
OWN 20
0
76.4%
Anthony Venneri punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:2783% → 87%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
50
+1
82.8%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 1 yd to the Buff 49Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+4
82.7%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+1
82.3%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 1 yd to the Buff 44Similar
Q4 3:30
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
86.9%
Luke Elzinga punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24DOWNS
11 plays · 56 yds · 2:2723% → 19%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+26
76.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 26 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
72.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
71.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 4 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+1
69.6%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 1 yd to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
70.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 9 yds to the CMich 35Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+2
67.0%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 2 yds to the CMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
67.9%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+9
68.1%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 9 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 1
OPP 24
0
69.2%
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the CMich 24Similar
Q4 1:03
4TH & 1
OPP 24
0
80.6%
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the CMich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 61 yds · 1:0394% → 97%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
94.2%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 4 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+21
95.0%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 6 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Keyshawn Cobb) to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+37
95.4%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 22 yds to the CENTMICH 29 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Keyshawn Cobb) to the Buff 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
96.8%
Kneel down by Central Mich. at UAB15 for loss of 1 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:29
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK)
+30.4
TD · Q3 1:13
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 87 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK)
+21.5
TD · Q2 6:55
Al-Jay Henderson run for 30 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)
-13
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com