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CMU

Central Michigan 35 at Northern Illinois 22

NIU
2022 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2022 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:02 · Tom Foley punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NORTHERNIL 35 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Nick Rattin) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 32Home team on offense−4.5Score differential−2.2Pregame prior+11.3Garbage-time factor−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:38: Daniel Richardson pass complete to Tyson Davis for 15 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK) — CMU win probability +13.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:36: Jase Bauer run for 7 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK) — CMU win probability +10.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:18: Tristen Tewes 34 Yd pass from Nevan Cremascoli (Shemar Thornton Pass to Nevan Cremascoli for Two-Point Conversion) — NIU win probability +17.9 pts (now 24%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:31: Izayah Green-May 57 Yd Fumble Return (John Richardson Kick) — NIU win probability +16.2 pts (now 27%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:17: Kyle Moretti 0 Yd Fumble Return (Marshall Meeder Kick) — CMU win probability +21.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9CMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 13:03NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    63.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:08NIU 4th & 10 at CMU 33, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    60.3%
    49% to make
    Punt
    60.1%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:02NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:42NIU 4th & 14 at NIU 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:28CMU 4th & 11 at CMU 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−2.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:18NIU 4th & 5 at CMU 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    45.1%−1.4
    27% to make
    Punt
    46.2%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:32NIU 4th & 2 at NIU 18, down 21
    Close callPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:11NIU 4th & 7 at CMU 39, down 21
    Close callPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    26.8%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:41CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 49, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    82.8%−2.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:35CMU 4th & 9 at NIU 47, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:28CMU 4th & 15 at NIU 33, up 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.3 ptsWent for it · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.4%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    82.7%
    49% to make
    Punt
    81.1%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:04CMU 4th & 17 at NIU 37, up 6
    Close callPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−2.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    73.3%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.6%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:17NIU 4th & 7 at CMU 13, down 13
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.9 ptsWent for it · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.4%−1.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    10.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−5.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:17NIU 4th & 7 at CMU 13, down 13
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.9 ptsWent for it · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.4%−1.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    10.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−5.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3CMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:30CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:50CMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:38CMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:29NIU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:36CMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:18NIU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    13.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:31NIU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:17CMU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.7%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5764% → 64%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
63.9%
Harrison Waylee run for 5 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
63.9%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
63.9%
Justin Lynch run for 1 yd to the NoIll 44Similar
Q1 13:03
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+1
63.8%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NoIll 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 2:3336% → 39%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
63.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 5 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+6
63.5%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Chris Parker for 6 yds to the NoIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
63.5%
Jase Bauer run for 10 yds to the NoIll 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
63.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 5 yds to the NoIll 17Similar
Q1 13:03
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+11
63.5%
Jase Bauer run for 11 yds to the NoIll 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
61.4%
Jase Bauer run for 6 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3DOWNS
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:0562% → 61%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
62.0%
Nevan Cremascoli pass complete to Tristen Tewes for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
50
+5
62.3%
Antario Brown run for 5 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
62.2%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the CMich 45Similar
Q1 8:43
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+12
61.8%
Nevan Cremascoli pass complete to Cole Tucker for 12 yds to the CMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
62.1%
Nevan Cremascoli pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
62.0%
Nevan Cremascoli pass incomplete to Harrison WayleeSimilar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
61.5%
Nevan Cremascoli pass incomplete to Tristen TewesSimilar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 10
OPP 33
0
60.9%
Nevan Cremascoli pass incomplete to Kacper RutkiewiczSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 3:0440% → 46%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
60.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 5 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 5
OWN 38
-10
59.8%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the CMich 32Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+8
60.1%
Lew Nichols III run for 8 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+10
59.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Bryant Kieft for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
50
+1
58.7%
Joel Wilson run for 1 yd to the CMich 49Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+28
58.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Finn Hogan for 28 yds to the NoIll 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
54.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 23 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3056% → 55%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.7%
Harrison Waylee run for no gain to the NoIll 25Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
55.5%
Nevan Cremascoli pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
55.3%
Nevan Cremascoli pass incomplete to Harrison WayleeSimilar
Q1 4:02
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+25
55.1%
Tom Foley punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NORTHERNIL 35 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Nick Rattin) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:2647% → 47%
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
50
0
53.3%
Jase Bauer run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 10
50
0
52.9%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to De'Javion StepneySimilar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 10
50
0
53.1%
Daniel Richardson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1755% → 53%
Q1 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
54.6%
Antario Brown run for 6 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 4
OPP 41
0
54.5%
Nevan Cremascoli pass complete to Cole Tucker for no gain to the CMich 41Similar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 4
OPP 41
-10
54.0%
(02:13) No Huddle-Shotgun Cremascoli,Nevan rush left for 2 yards gain to the CMU39 (Whiteside,Justin) PENALTY NIU Holding (Lippe,J.J.) 10 yards from CMU41 to NIU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 14
OWN 49
0
53.0%
Nevan Cremascoli pass incomplete to Tristen TewesSimilar
Q1 1:42
4TH & 14
OWN 49
0
52.8%
Tom Foley punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 4:0148% → 52%
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
51.9%
Lew Nichols III run for 4 yds to the CMich 5Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+6
51.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 6 yds to the CMich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
50.3%
Lew Nichols III run for 5 yds to the CMich 16Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+4
50.0%
Jase Bauer run for 4 yds to the CMich 20Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+3
49.8%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the CMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
48.7%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
48.2%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Carlos CarriereSimilar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 8
OWN 25
-10
48.5%
(13:20) No Huddle-Shotgun Richardson,Daniel pass complete deep middle to Nichols,Lew for 14 yards to the CMU39 (Brown,C.J.) PENALTY CMU Holding 10 yards from CMU25 to CMU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 18
OWN 15
+7
48.3%
Christian Brown run for 7 yds to the CMich 22Similar
Q2 12:28
4TH & 11
OWN 22
0
48.3%
Luke Elzinga punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9DOWNS
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:5749% → 47%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
48.9%
Harrison Waylee run for 4 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+11
48.2%
Nevan Cremascoli pass complete to Tristen Tewes for 11 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
48.5%
PENALTY NIU False Start (Buss,Evan) 5 yards from CMU49 to NIU46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 15
OWN 46
0
47.4%
Nevan Cremascoli pass incomplete to Kacper RutkiewiczSimilar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 15
OWN 46
0
47.1%
Nevan Cremascoli pass incomplete to Fabian McCraySimilar
Q2 10:45
3RD & 15
OWN 46
+10
46.4%
Nevan Cremascoli run for 10 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q2 10:18
4TH & 5
OPP 44
+3
47.0%
Nevan Cremascoli pass complete to Harrison Waylee for 3 yds to the CMich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 2:1557% → 72%
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
42.9%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 8 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+33
42.1%
Jase Bauer run for 33 yds to the NoIll 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
41.4%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for no gain to the NoIll 18Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+3
41.8%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q2 7:38
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+15
27.9%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Tyson Davis for 15 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4532% → 30%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
32.0%
Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the NoIll 14Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+3
31.2%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the NoIll 17Similar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+1
30.4%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the NoIll 18Similar
Q2 5:32
4TH & 2
OWN 18
0
29.7%
Tom Foley punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Christian Brown at the CMich 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12FUMBLE
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5875% → 77%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
25.4%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 6 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
24.0%
Lew Nichols III run for 5 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
23.4%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Finn HoganSimilar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
23.1%
Lew Nichols III run for 4 yds to the CMich 42 Lew Nichols III fumbled, recovered by NoIll Nick RattinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:5531% → 28%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
30.6%
Justin Lynch run for 2 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+3
29.8%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+2
28.5%
Harrison Waylee run for 2 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q2 2:11
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
27.5%
Tom Foley punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14MISSED FG
14 plays · 47 yds · 1:5480% → 86%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
20.0%
Jase Bauer run for 3 yds to the CMich 23Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
19.7%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Finn Hogan for 6 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
20.1%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the CMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
18.7%
Lew Nichols III run for 4 yds to the CMich 35Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+3
18.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+5
18.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 5 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 4
OWN 37
+15
18.2%
(00:39) Elzinga,Luke punt 31 yards to the NIU32, out of bounds at NIU32 PENALTY NIU Personal Foul (Rattin,Joey) 15 yards from CMU37 to NIU48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
16.1%
Jase Bauer run for 6 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
15.1%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Finn HoganSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+9
15.8%
Lew Nichols III run for 9 yds to the NoIll 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+51
13.9%
Marshall Meeder 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 2:5982% → 87%
Q3 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
17.7%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Cade Conley for 14 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
16.6%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+3
16.7%
De'Javion Stepney run for 3 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q3 13:14
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+4
16.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Cade Conley for 4 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q3 12:41
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+3
15.6%
Jase Bauer run for 3 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
13.6%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the NoIll 47Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
12.8%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Lew Nichols IIISimilar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
12.8%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Lew Nichols IIISimilar
Q3 11:35
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
13.5%
Luke Elzinga punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 4:5620% → 25%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
19.5%
Harrison Waylee run for 15 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
19.4%
Harrison Waylee run for 7 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
20.0%
Nevan Cremascoli pass incomplete to Fabian McCraySimilar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+4
19.1%
Nevan Cremascoli pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 4 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
18.5%
Harrison Waylee run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 6
50
+23
18.1%
Nevan Cremascoli pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 23 yds to the CMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
17.8%
Harrison Waylee run for 15 yds to the CMich 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
17.5%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the CMich 9Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+7
16.8%
Messiah Travis run for 7 yds to the CMich 16Similar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 14
OPP 16
0
14.7%
(07:28) No Huddle-Shotgun Cremascoli,Nevan pass incomplete short left to McCray,Fabian, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY CMU Pass Interference (Sims,Jarvarius) 11 yard from CMU16 to CMU05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+6
18.9%
Jaiden Credle run for 6 yds to the CMich 11Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
28.2%
Nevan Cremascoli pass complete to Liam Soraghan for 11 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
Q3 6:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
28.4%
PENALTY CMU Delay Of Game 2 yards from CMU03 to CMU03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
24.9%
PENALTY CMU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from NIU35 to NIU50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:3379% → 96%
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
21.0%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Jalen McGaughy for 18 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
19.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 8 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+1
18.2%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the NoIll 48Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
18.3%
Daniel Richardson run for 2 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
17.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the NoIll 45Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+4
17.1%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Marcus Young for 4 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+13
17.0%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 13 yds to the NoIll 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
15.4%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Chris ParkerSimilar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+5
15.4%
Jase Bauer run for 5 yds to the NoIll 33 Jase Bauer fumbled, recovered by CMich Bryant KieftSimilar
Q3 1:51
3RD & 15
OPP 33
0
15.7%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Lew Nichols IIISimilar
Q3 1:28
4TH & 15
OPP 33
+20
17.3%
Luke Elzinga pass complete to Bryant Kieft for 20 yds to the NoIll 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
14.2%
Jase Bauer run for 6 yds to the NoIll 7Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+7
3.8%
Jase Bauer run for 7 yds for a TD, (Marshall Meeder KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:026% → 24%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+28
5.8%
Harrison Waylee run for 28 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
6.0%
Harrison Waylee run for 7 yds to the CMich 35Similar
Q4 14:39
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+1
6.4%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the CMich 34Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+34
24.3%
Tristen Tewes 34 Yd pass from Nevan Cremascoli (Shemar Thornton Pass to Nevan Cremascoli for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19FUMBLE RETURN TD
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:2686% → 60%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
14.4%
Lew Nichols III run for 5 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+9
12.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 9 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
11.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 9 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 1
OPP 39
0
10.8%
Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the NoIll 39Similar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+57
27.0%
Izayah Green-May 57 Yd Fumble Return (John Richardson Kick)Similar
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
40.0%
PENALTY NIU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from NIU35 to NIU20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 13 yds · 3:0874% → 72%
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
50
-10
26.5%
(11:19) No Huddle-Shotgun Bauer,Jase pass complete short right to Hogan,Finn for 6 yards to the NIU44, End Of Play PENALTY CMU Holding 10 yards from CMU50 to CMU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 20
OWN 40
+20
28.4%
Jase Bauer run for 20 yds to the NoIll 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
24.4%
Lew Nichols III run for 5 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+5
23.2%
(09:35) No Huddle-Shotgun Emanuel Jr.,Bert rush left for 1 yard gain to the NIU34 (Gandy,Jordan; Alvarado,Nick) PENALTY NIU Offside 5 yards from NIU35 to NIU30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-15
23.3%
PENALTY CMU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from NIU30 to NIU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 25
OPP 45
+5
24.3%
Jase Bauer run for 5 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 20
OPP 40
-15
24.5%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jalen McGaughy) to the CMich 45Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 35
OWN 45
+18
25.9%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jalen McGaughy for 18 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 17
OPP 37
0
25.1%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Kenny Brewer IIISimilar
Q4 8:04
4TH & 17
OPP 37
0
27.7%
Luke Elzinga punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21FUMBLE RETURN TD
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4733% → 7%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
33.4%
Harrison Waylee run for no gain to the NoIll 1Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
31.4%
Nevan Cremascoli pass incomplete to Shemar ThorntonSimilar
Q4 7:17
3RD & 10
OWN 1
0
9.9%
Kyle Moretti 0 Yd Fumble Return (Marshall Meeder Kick)Similar
Q4 7:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
6.6%
Bauer,Jase pass attempt failed PENALTY CMU Holding 10 yards from NIU03 to NIU13. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22DOWNS
13 plays · 62 yds · 2:5511% → 10%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.0%
Nevan Cremascoli pass incomplete to Fabian McCraySimilar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+34
10.7%
Harrison Waylee run for 34 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
12.7%
Harrison Waylee run for 4 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+7
12.6%
Nevan Cremascoli pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 7 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
14.3%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the CMich 29Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
13.8%
Nevan Cremascoli pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+13
12.2%
Nevan Cremascoli pass complete to Fabian McCray for 13 yds to the CMich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
14.2%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the CMich 13Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
12.9%
Nevan Cremascoli pass incomplete to Billy DozierSimilar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 7
OPP 13
0
11.4%
Nevan Cremascoli pass incomplete to Shemar ThorntonSimilar
Q4 4:17
4TH & 7
OPP 13
0
10.2%
Nevan Cremascoli pass incomplete to Shemar ThorntonSimilar
Q4 4:17
4TH & 7
OPP 13
0
10.2%
Nevan Cremascoli pass incomplete to Shemar ThorntonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23FUMBLE
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:5795% → 96%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
5.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the CMich 15Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+4
5.3%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 4 yds to the CMich 19Similar
Q4 3:55
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+4
5.0%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 4 yds to the CMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
3.6%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 8 yds to the CMich 31 Bert Emanuel Jr. fumbled, recovered by NoIll Jordan HansenSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
3.6%
Bert Emanuel Jr. run for 8 yds to the CMich 46 Bert Emanuel Jr. fumbled, recovered by NoIll Jordan HansenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24INT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:016% → 6%
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
5.7%
Nevan Cremascoli pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 5 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
5.7%
Nevan Cremascoli pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+6
5.3%
Nevan Cremascoli run for 6 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
6.5%
Nevan Cremascoli pass incomplete to Shemar ThorntonSimilar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
6.4%
Nevan Cremascoli pass incomplete to Tristen TewesSimilar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+10
5.4%
Nevan Cremascoli pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 10 yds to the CMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
5.9%
Nevan Cremascoli pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:5097% → 98%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
2.7%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the CMich 16Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+3
2.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the CMich 19Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+11
2.4%
Lew Nichols III run for 11 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
2.2%
Kneel down by Central Michigan at CMU29 for loss of 1 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:17
Kyle Moretti 0 Yd Fumble Return (Marshall Meeder Kick)
-21.5
TD · Q4 14:18
Tristen Tewes 34 Yd pass from Nevan Cremascoli (Shemar Thornton Pass to Nevan Cremascoli for Two-Point Conversion)
+17.9
TD · Q4 11:31
Izayah Green-May 57 Yd Fumble Return (John Richardson Kick)
+16.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com