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BUF

Buffalo 24 at Ohio 45

OHIO
2022 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2022 · Peden Stadium
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Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:46 · Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 16 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 156Home team on offense+29.6Score differential+23.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.0Pregame prior−1.6Garbage-time factor+7.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:03: Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 5 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — OHIO win probability +15.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:20: Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 12 yds for a TD OHIO Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Torrie Cox Jr.) declined, (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +11.9 pts (now 24%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:00: Keyshawn Cobb 26 Yd Interception Return (Alex McNulty Kick) — BUF win probability +13.1 pts (now 39%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:05: Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 2 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — OHIO win probability +13.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:16: Cam Dorsey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — OHIO win probability +15.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BUF made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:19BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:19BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:01OHIO 4th & 5 at BUF 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    49.3%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:05BUF 4th & 10 at OHIO 10, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−1.5
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    22.5%−9.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:39OHIO 4th & 7 at BUF 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:57BUF 4th & 11 at BUF 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:15BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 14, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−0.5
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:32OHIO 4th & 12 at OHIO 15, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−3.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:51BUF 4th & 11 at BUF 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−2.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:46BUF 4th & 2 at OHIO 2, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    13.7%−2.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    5.4%−10.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:46BUF 4th & 10 at OHIO 47, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:46OHIO 4th & 14 at OHIO 43, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:46BUF 4th & 13 at BUF 29, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 6 of 6BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:22OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:38OHIO Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:03OHIO Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:20BUF Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:00BUF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:05OHIO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:46BUF Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:16OHIO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:10OHIO Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3561% → 60%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.0%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
39.0%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the Buff 26Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
39.0%
Cole Snyder run for 8 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 13:19
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
39.6%
Anthony Venneri punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 2TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:5740% → 42%
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+23
39.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 23 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
39.8%
Nolan McCormick run for 2 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+12
39.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Nolan McCormick for 12 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
39.8%
BUFFALO Penalty, Personal Foul (Jaylon Bass) to the Buff 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
42.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 16 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:5859% → 57%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
41.5%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 17Similar
Q1 11:17
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+5
41.5%
Cole Snyder run for 5 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 3
OWN 22
-7
41.6%
Cole Snyder sacked by Bryce Houston for a loss of 7 yards to the Buff 15Similar
Q1 9:19
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
43.4%
Anthony Venneri punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 4FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 3:1844% → 46%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
43.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 6 yds to the Ohio 41Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+16
44.1%
Jake Neatherton run for 16 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
44.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+18
44.2%
Kurtis Rourke run for 18 yds to the Buff 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
44.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
44.3%
Nolan McCormick run for 4 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+1
44.2%
Kurtis Rourke run for 1 yd to the Buff 20Similar
Q1 6:01
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
45.8%
Nathanial Vakos 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5INT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:3455% → 52%
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
45.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 24Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-3
48.0%
Cole Snyder sacked by Rodney Mathews for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 21Similar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
48.2%
Cole Snyder pass interceptedSimilar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
48.2%
Cole Snyder pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 6TD
6 plays · 42 yds · 2:4954% → 65%
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
54.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to James Bostic for 5 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+1
55.3%
Nolan McCormick run for 1 yd to the Buff 36Similar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+32
55.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 32 yds to the Buff 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
54.7%
Nolan McCormick run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 5Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
64.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 5 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:3343% → 42%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
56.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 6 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+27
56.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 27 yds to the Ohio 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
55.2%
SNYDER, Cole pass up the middle complete for 11 yards to BORLAND, Trevor caught at the OHI36 and advanced to the OHI31 (MCCRORY, Jack). PENALTY BUF Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on WRIGHT, Isaiah enforced 5 yards from the OHI42 to the OHI47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+15
56.4%
OHIO Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Zach Sanders) to the Ohio 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
57.7%
Cole Snyder run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+4
58.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 4 yds to the Ohio 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+13
58.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 13 yds to the Ohio 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
57.7%
Cole Snyder run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+1
57.9%
run for 1 yd to the Ohio 10Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
58.5%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
58.0%
Alex McNulty 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:2167% → 70%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
66.8%
Nolan McCormick run for 2 yds to the Ohio 18Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+6
67.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Alec Burton for 6 yds to the Ohio 24Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+25
66.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to James Bostic for 25 yds to the Ohio 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
68.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
71.0%
Nolan McCormick run for 3 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
70.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:39
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
70.2%
Jack Wilson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Quian Williams at the Buff 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:4235% → 32%
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
64.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 8 yds to the Buff 17Similar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+7
64.0%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 7 yds to the Buff 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
63.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 7
OWN 27
-4
63.9%
Al-Jay Henderson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 23Similar
Q2 9:39
3RD & 11
OWN 23
0
64.8%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:57
4TH & 11
OWN 23
+38
68.0%
Anthony Venneri punt for 38 yds , Sam Wiglusz returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 10TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:5474% → 88%
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
73.8%
Julian Ross run for 3 yds to the Ohio 41Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+49
73.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 49 yds to the Buff 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
73.8%
Julian Ross run for 8 yds to the Buff 2Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
72.9%
Julian Ross run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 5Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
88.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 5 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3516% → 10%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
84.5%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the Buff 11Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+3
84.5%
Cole Snyder run for 3 yds to the Buff 14Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 4
OWN 14
0
84.5%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:15
4TH & 4
OWN 14
0
86.3%
Anthony Venneri punt for 59 yds, downed at the Ohio 17Similar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
90.2%
ROURKE, Kurtis scrambles up the middle for a gain of 7 yards to the OHI24 (DOLAC, Shaun). PENALTY Before the snap, OHI Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the OHI17 to the OHI12. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:4391% → 90%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 15
OWN 12
0
90.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 15
OWN 12
+3
90.1%
Nolan McCormick run for 3 yds to the Ohio 15Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 12
OWN 15
0
89.9%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:32
4TH & 12
OWN 15
0
89.5%
Jack Wilson punt for 20 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13TD
8 plays · 35 yds · 1:1211% → 24%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
88.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 9 yds to the Ohio 26Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+1
85.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 1 yd to the Ohio 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
88.2%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+2
88.8%
Cole Snyder run for 2 yds to the Ohio 23Similar
Q2 1:32
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+11
89.3%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 11 yds to the Ohio 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
88.1%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
88.4%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+12
76.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 12 yds for a TD OHIO Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Torrie Cox Jr.) declined, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.2%
[NHSG] Kneel down by ROURKE, Kurtis at OHI22 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 15INT TD
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:5575% → 61%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
74.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+6
74.3%
Cam Dorsey run for 6 yds to the Ohio 22Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 4
OWN 22
-26
61.2%
Keyshawn Cobb 26 Yd Interception Return (Alex McNulty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 16TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5561% → 78%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
61.4%
Cam Dorsey run for 4 yds to the Ohio 29Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+24
61.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Will Kacmarek for 24 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
64.4%
OHIO Penalty, False Start (Kurt Danneker) to the Ohio 48Similar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+20
62.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Will Kacmarek for 20 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
64.6%
Cam Dorsey run for no gain to the Buff 32Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+13
64.5%
Kurtis Rourke run for 13 yds to the Buff 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
64.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 8 yds to the Buff 11Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+9
64.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to James Bostic for 9 yds to the Buff 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
78.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 2 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:1424% → 22%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.4%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
76.7%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-1
77.1%
Cole Snyder run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 24 Cole Snyder fumbled, recovered by BuffSimilar
Q3 8:51
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+7
78.5%
Anthony Venneri punt for 50 yds , Sam Wiglusz returns for 7 yds to the Ohio 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 18FUMBLE
1 play · 28 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+28
81.4%
Julian Ross run for 28 yds to the Buff 44 Julian Ross fumbled, recovered by Buff Marcus FuquaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19TD
15 plays · 56 yds · 6:5325% → 36%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
74.8%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+2
74.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 2 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+8
74.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 8 yds to the Ohio 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
73.2%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
73.8%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the Ohio 41Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+18
73.7%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 18 yds to the Ohio 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
71.9%
Mike Washington run for 6 yds to the Ohio 17Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+4
71.9%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the Ohio 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
71.9%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the Ohio 12Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+4
71.9%
Cole Snyder run for 4 yds to the Ohio 8Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
72.9%
OHIO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Zach Sanders) to the Ohio 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
71.9%
Cole Snyder run for 1 yd to the Ohio 3Similar
Q3 8:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
71.9%
Cole Snyder sacked by Jack McCrory and Keye Thompson for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 4Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
72.9%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
64.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Mike Washington for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 20TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:2474% → 96%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
74.3%
Cam Dorsey run for 2 yds to the Ohio 22Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+43
73.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 43 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
80.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 19 yds to the Buff 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
80.7%
Cam Dorsey run for 9 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+6
80.3%
Cam Dorsey run for 6 yds to the Buff 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
80.4%
Kurtis Rourke run for no gain to the Buff 1Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.2%
Cam Dorsey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21FUMBLE
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:1512% → 12%
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.0%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
88.1%
Cole Snyder sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the Buff 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 22TD
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:5196% → 100%
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
96.4%
Cam Dorsey run for 3 yds to the Buff 9Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+9
99.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 9 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 28 yds · 1:242% → 1%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.5%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+28
98.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 28 yds to the Ohio 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
98.5%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
98.5%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
98.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Mike Washington for no gain to the Ohio 47Similar
Q4 10:46
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
98.7%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 24PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
99.6%
Cam Dorsey run for 2 yds to the Ohio 49Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+4
99.6%
Kurtis Rourke run for 4 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
99.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:46
4TH & 4
OPP 47
-10
99.6%
OHIO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ohio 43Similar
Q4 8:46
4TH & 14
OWN 43
0
99.6%
Jack Wilson punt for 52 yds, downed at the Buff 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25FUMBLE
18 plays · 78 yds · 4:271% → 1%
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
99.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 6 yds to the Buff 11Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+6
99.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Robbie Mangas for 6 yds to the Buff 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
99.0%
Cole Snyder run for 6 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 4
OWN 23
0
99.0%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+9
99.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 9 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.0%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-3
99.0%
Cole Snyder sacked by Adonis Williams Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 29Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 13
OWN 29
0
99.0%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:46
4TH & 13
OWN 29
+16
99.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 16 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.0%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
99.0%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+12
99.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 12 yds to the Ohio 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
98.9%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+8
98.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Robbie Mangas for 8 yds to the Ohio 35Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+8
98.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Robbie Mangas for 8 yds to the Ohio 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
98.7%
Cole Snyder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-9
98.8%
Cole Snyder sacked by Bryce Houston for a loss of 9 yards to the Ohio 36Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 19
OPP 36
+19
99.5%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Robbie Mangas for 19 yds Robbie Mangas fumbled, recovered by Ohio Keye Thompson , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 26END OF GAME
8 plays · 22 yds · 4:19100% → 100%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
50
-1
99.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 49Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+1
99.8%
Cam Dorsey run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 10
50
+15
99.8%
Cam Dorsey run for 15 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
99.8%
Cam Dorsey run for 3 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+9
99.8%
Kurtis Rourke run for 9 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.8%
[NHSG] Kneel down by ROURKE, Kurtis at BUF26 (team loss of 3).Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 13
OPP 26
0
99.9%
[NHSG] Kneel down by ROURKE, Kurtis at BUF28 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:03
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 5 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
+15.9
TD · Q4 13:16
Cam Dorsey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
+15.7
TD · Q3 10:05
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 2 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
+13.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com