Try the model
BALL

Ball State 27 at Kent State 20

KENT
2022 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2022 · Dix Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Kneel down by Ball St. at KENTST38 for loss of 2 yards.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:40: Carson Steele run for 15 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK) — BALL win probability +6.4 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 36%).
  2. TD · Q2 4:54: John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 43 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK) — BALL win probability +10.3 pts (now 42%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 12:17: Ben VonGunten 31 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +8.2 pts (now 55%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:08: Marquez Cooper run for 23 yds for a TD, (Johan Silver KICK) — KENT win probability +29.6 pts (now 66%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:21: John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 8 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK) — BALL win probability +33.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KENT made the numbers' call on 13 of 14BALL made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 11:32KENT 4th & 7 at BALL 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    68.6%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:28KENT 4th & 9 at BALL 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    68.2%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:36BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 30, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:45BALL 4th & 9 at BALL 46, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:58KENT 4th & 8 at KENT 22, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:45KENT 4th & 12 at BALL 29, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    68.5%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:01BALL 4th & 16 at BALL 46, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−1.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:00KENT 4th & 3 at KENT 37, up 6
    Close callPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:54KENT 4th & 1 at BALL 42, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    60.8%−2.9
    30% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−2.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:17KENT 4th & 24 at KENT 43, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−2.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:17KENT 4th & 28 at KENT 43, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−2.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:14BALL 4th & 10 at KENT 16, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−2.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.3%
    81% to make
    Punt
    36.9%−5.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:17BALL 4th & 10 at KENT 14, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−1.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    36.2%−9.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:06KENT 4th & 15 at BALL 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−3.7
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    33.5%−10.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:10BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−2.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:47KENT 4th & 1 at BALL 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    38.2%−4.3
    87% to make
    Punt
    25.1%−17.4
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:15BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 29, up 7
    Close callPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%−1.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:22KENT 4th & 8 at KENT 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−1.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:46BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:31KENT 4th & 8 at KENT 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−1.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  21. Q4 8:10BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−2.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:05KENT 4th & 3 at KENT 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.4%−5.2
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:05KENT 4th & 3 at KENT 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.4%−5.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BALL made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 4:25KENT Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:40BALL Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:54BALL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:08KENT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.9%−1.0
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:21BALL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.2 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%−1.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
KENTDrive 1FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 3:2369% → 69%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
68.9%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Devontez WalkerSimilar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+15
68.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 15 yds to the KntSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
68.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 8 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+9
68.9%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Trell Harris for 9 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
68.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 9 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+3
68.9%
Collin Schlee run for 3 yds to the BalSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
68.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the BalSt 24Similar
Q1 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+1
68.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the BalSt 23Similar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+1
68.9%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the BalSt 22Similar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+40
68.9%
Andrew Glass 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2INT
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:3231% → 31%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
68.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 12 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
68.6%
John Paddock pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 3FG
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:3269% → 70%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
69.1%
Marquez Cooper run for 6 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+3
69.2%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 3 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
69.0%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the BalSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
69.2%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+1
69.2%
Collin Schlee run for 1 yd to the BalSt 24Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
69.0%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Devontez WalkerSimilar
Q1 9:28
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+42
69.8%
Andrew Glass 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5231% → 30%
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
69.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 3 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+7
69.5%
Carson Steele run for 7 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
69.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for no gain to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 7:36
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
70.0%
Lucas Borrow punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KntSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 5TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:1170% → 76%
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
70.1%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Raymond James for 6 yds to the KntSt 44Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+1
70.3%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 1 yd to the KntSt 45Similar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+20
70.0%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Kris Leach for 20 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
70.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 5 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+6
70.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 6 yds to the BalSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
70.4%
Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the BalSt 24Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+8
70.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 8 yds to the BalSt 16Similar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+2
70.2%
Collin Schlee run for 2 yds to the BalSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
75.7%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Devontez Walker for 14 yds for a TD, (Andrew Glass KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:4027% → 25%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
73.4%
Carson Steele run for 20 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
73.0%
Carson Steele run for no gain to the BalSt 45Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
73.0%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 46Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
73.2%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
75.3%
Lucas Borrow punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Raymond James at the KntSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4776% → 76%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
75.9%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Ja'Shaun PokeSimilar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
75.9%
Bryan Bradford run for 2 yds to the KntSt 22Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
75.5%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Ja'Shaun PokeSimilar
Q1 1:58
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
75.8%
Josh Smith punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jayshon Jackson at the BalSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:1826% → 33%
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
74.4%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 7 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 3
OWN 41
0
74.0%
Vaughn Pemberton run for no gain to the BalSt 41Similar
Q1 1:58
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+9
74.1%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
50
+8
74.6%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 8 yds to the KntSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+8
74.5%
Carson Steele run for 8 yds to the KntSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+19
74.1%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 19 yds to the KntSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
73.9%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Tanner KoziolSimilar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
67.5%
Carson Steele run for 15 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 9MISSED FG
7 plays · 26 yds · 1:4972% → 71%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
72.2%
Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the KntSt 45Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
71.8%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Raymond James for 6 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
72.4%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Kris LeachSimilar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
72.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 12
OPP 29
0
71.7%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Kris LeachSimilar
Q2 11:45
4TH & 12
OPP 29
+47
70.8%
Andrew Glass 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:4430% → 28%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 20
OWN 19
+8
70.1%
Carson Steele run for 8 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+8
70.1%
John Paddock pass complete to Carson Steele for 8 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+6
69.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 6 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
69.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 11 yds to the KntSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
68.2%
Will Jones run for 3 yds to the KntSt 45Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 11
OPP 49
0
69.4%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 8:01
4TH & 16
OWN 46
0
71.9%
Lucas Borrow punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:0172% → 72%
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+11
72.4%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 11 yds to the KntSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+16
72.6%
Marquez Cooper run for 16 yds to the KntSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
72.8%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Ja'Shaun PokeSimilar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
72.6%
Marquez Cooper run for 7 yds to the KntSt 37Similar
Q2 8:01
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
73.0%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Luke FlorieaSimilar
Q2 7:00
4TH & 3
OWN 37
+5
72.1%
Josh Smith punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 23 , Jayshon Jackson returns for 5 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 2:0629% → 42%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
70.9%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+2
70.4%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+12
70.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 12 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
69.7%
Carson Steele run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 1
50
+7
68.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 7 yds to the KntSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
58.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 43 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13PUNT
17 plays · 40 yds · 3:3762% → 61%
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+8
61.7%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 8 yds to the KntSt 11Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 2
OWN 11
+4
62.0%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the KntSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+20
62.0%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Trell Harris for 20 yds to the KntSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
62.5%
Collin Schlee sacked by Cole Pearce for a loss of 4 yards to the KntSt 31Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+9
62.0%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 9 yds to the KntSt 40Similar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+9
63.5%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Trell Harris for 9 yds to the KntSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
64.7%
Bryan Bradford run for 3 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+3
65.1%
Bryan Bradford run for 3 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+3
64.7%
Bryan Bradford run for 3 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q2 4:54
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+3
63.5%
Bryan Bradford run for 3 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
65.1%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 2 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+1
65.1%
Bryan Bradford run for 1 yd to the BalSt 36Similar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 24
OWN 43
0
60.5%
Josh Smith punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jayshon Jackson at the BalSt 15Similar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 28
OWN 43
0
60.5%
Josh Smith punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jayshon Jackson at the BalSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14FG
10 plays · 69 yds · 1:0340% → 46%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
60.4%
Carson Steele run for 11 yds to the BalSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+21
60.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 21 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
57.6%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+23
57.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 23 yds to the KntSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
55.3%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+14
55.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 14 yds to the KntSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
55.1%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Brady HuntSimilar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
55.1%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
56.4%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q2 0:14
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+34
54.1%
Ben VonGunten 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:0958% → 58%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
58.3%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Trell HarrisSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+10
58.1%
Marquez Cooper run for 10 yds to the KntSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16FG
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:3349% → 55%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
51.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 6 yds to the KntSt 20Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+6
51.1%
Carson Steele run for 6 yds to the KntSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
51.1%
John Paddock run for 3 yds to the KntSt 11Similar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+3
51.1%
John Paddock pass complete to Ryan Lezon for 3 yds to the KntSt 14Similar
Q3 14:50
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
52.8%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Brady HuntSimilar
Q3 12:17
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+31
44.6%
Ben VonGunten 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17MISSED FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 3:0548% → 44%
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
47.8%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Raymond James for 5 yds to the KntSt 42Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
49.8%
Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the KntSt 42Similar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
50.8%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 14 yds to the BalSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
52.3%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Marcus Harris for 13 yds to the BalSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
52.3%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Ja'Shaun PokeSimilar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 19
OPP 25
-4
50.4%
Collin Schlee sacked by Justen Ramsey for a loss of 4 yards to the BalSt 29Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 23
OPP 29
+8
48.3%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 8 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q3 9:06
4TH & 15
OPP 21
+39
44.0%
Andrew Glass 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:5657% → 59%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
43.2%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
42.0%
Carson Steele run for no gain to the BalSt 26Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+8
43.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 8 yds to the BalSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
41.9%
Jayshon Jackson run for no gain to the BalSt 34Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
42.5%
Carson Steele run for no gain to the BalSt 34Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
44.1%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q3 6:10
4TH & 10
OWN 34
+12
41.4%
Lucas Borrow punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KntSt 40 , Luke Floriea returns for 12 yds to the KntSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 49 yds · 3:2343% → 43%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+1
42.6%
Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the KntSt 36Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+8
42.8%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 8 yds to the KntSt 44Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+14
44.3%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Trell Harris for 14 yds to the BalSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
47.4%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 12 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
49.1%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Marcus HarrisSimilar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
49.0%
Marquez Cooper run for 5 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
49.1%
Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the BalSt 16Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+5
49.1%
Marquez Cooper run for 5 yds to the BalSt 11Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 1
OPP 11
0
47.2%
Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the BalSt 11Similar
Q3 2:47
4TH & 1
OPP 11
0
42.9%
Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the BalSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:3264% → 65%
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
36.1%
Carson Steele run for 8 yds to the BalSt 19Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+3
35.1%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the BalSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
35.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 4 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
35.1%
Carson Steele run for no gain to the BalSt 26Similar
Q3 2:47
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+3
36.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Amir Abdur-Rahman for 3 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q3 0:15
4TH & 3
OWN 29
+3
34.9%
Lucas Borrow punt for 40 yds , Luke Floriea returns for 3 yds to the KntSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3837% → 32%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
36.6%
Collin Schlee run for 2 yds to the KntSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+2
37.0%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 2 yds to the KntSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 29
+7
33.8%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 7 yds to the KntSt 36Similar
Q4 13:22
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
32.0%
Josh Smith punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 2:3670% → 73%
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
29.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 9 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 1
OWN 26
0
28.2%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Tanner KoziolSimilar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+3
29.1%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the BalSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
28.8%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+6
28.2%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 6 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
26.8%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
26.8%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
27.2%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q4 10:46
4TH & 5
OWN 44
+13
27.0%
Lucas Borrow punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the KntSt 25 , Luke Floriea returns for 13 yds to the KntSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1532% → 27%
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.1%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Ja'Shaun PokeSimilar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
31.9%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 6 yds to the KntSt 31Similar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
31.6%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Marquez Cooper for 4 yds to the KntSt 27Similar
Q4 9:31
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
26.7%
Josh Smith punt for 43 yds , Jayshon Jackson returns for no gain to the BalSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:2177% → 75%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
23.2%
Jayshon Jackson run for 1 yd to the BalSt 27Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+1
24.3%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 28Similar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
25.0%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q4 8:10
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
25.2%
Lucas Borrow punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Luke Floriea at the KntSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 25TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:0230% → 66%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
29.6%
Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the KntSt 37Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+24
30.0%
Collin Schlee run for 24 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
34.7%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Trell HarrisSimilar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+7
34.4%
Collin Schlee run for 7 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+3
34.5%
Collin Schlee run for 3 yds to the BalSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
36.8%
Marquez Cooper run for 6 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+23
66.4%
Marquez Cooper run for 23 yds for a TD, (Johan Silver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 26TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4747% → 89%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
52.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 9 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+13
49.5%
Carson Steele run for 13 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
47.6%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the KntSt 48Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+2
47.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 2 yds to the KntSt 46Similar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+37
47.8%
Carson Steele run for 37 yds to the KntSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
44.6%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the KntSt 8Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
10.9%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 8 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 27DOWNS
9 plays · 25 yds · 1:1622% → 18%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
22.3%
Marquez Cooper run for 8 yds to the KntSt 33Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
25.1%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Raymond JamesSimilar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
23.5%
Marquez Cooper run for 8 yds to the KntSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
25.4%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Trell HarrisSimilar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+7
23.8%
Marquez Cooper run for 7 yds to the KntSt 48Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
26.3%
Collin Schlee pass incomplete to Luke FlorieaSimilar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 3
OWN 48
+2
18.0%
Collin Schlee run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 3
OWN 48
+2
18.0%
Collin Schlee run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 28END OF GAME
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:0591% → 96%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
50
+3
8.9%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the KntSt 47Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+4
6.6%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the KntSt 43Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+9
4.9%
Carson Steele run for 9 yds to the KntSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
4.9%
Kneel down by Ball St. at KENTST36 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 36
-2
4.0%
Kneel down by Ball St. at KENTST38 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:21
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 8 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)
-33.3
TD · Q4 6:08
Marquez Cooper run for 23 yds for a TD, (Johan Silver KICK)
+29.6
TD · Q2 4:54
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 43 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)
-10.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com