2022 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2022 · InfoCision Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreM-OH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · DJ Irons run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 19 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 12:54: Cory Smigel 25 yd FG GOOD — AKR win probability +2.8 pts (now 29%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:26: Keyon Mozee 3 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick), (Graham Nicholson KICK) — M-OH win probability +5.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- FG · Q2 1:11: Graham Nicholson 33 yd FG GOOD — M-OH win probability +4.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- FG · Q4 14:04: Graham Nicholson 44 yd FG GOOD — M-OH win probability +2.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:15: Jacquez Warren 62 Yd Interception Return (Graham Nicholson Kick) — M-OH win probability +4.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 7 of 10M-OH made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
- Q1 13:03M-OH 4th & 3 at M-OH 42, tiedClose callPunted · 70.2% before the snapGo for it70.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 10:02AKR 4th & 6 at M-OH 47, tiedClose callPunted · 31.3% before the snapGo for it31.3%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 7:25M-OH 4th & 3 at M-OH 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snapGo for it67.6%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.7%average punt
- Q1 6:07AKR 4th & 17 at AKR 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snapGo for it31.7%−0.612% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.4%average punt
- Q2 15:00AKR 4th & 1 at M-OH 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.2%71% to convertField goal30.0%−1.262% to makePunt27.0%−4.3average punt
- Q2 12:54AKR 4th & 7 at M-OH 7, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.2% before the snapGo for it30.5%−0.328% to convertField goalTheir call30.8%91% to makePunt26.0%−4.8average punt
- Q2 9:31M-OH 4th & 3 at M-OH 39, up 4Close callPunted · 65.4% before the snapGo for it65.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.0%−0.5average punt
- Q2 7:40AKR 4th & 1 at AKR 34, down 4Close callPunted · 33.5% before the snapGo for it34.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.3%−0.9average punt
- Q2 2:40AKR 4th & 3 at AKR 32, down 11Close callPunted · 24.1% before the snapGo for it24.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.0%−0.1average punt
- Q2 1:11M-OH 4th & 8 at AKR 15, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.6% before the snapGo for it75.8%−0.531% to convertField goalTheir call76.3%83% to makePunt72.9%−3.4average punt
- Q3 13:17AKR 4th & 5 at AKR 42, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snapGo for it20.4%−0.441% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.9%average punt
- Q3 10:21M-OH 4th & 2 at M-OH 35, up 14Close callPunted · 82.4% before the snapGo for it83.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.7%−0.5average punt
- Q3 6:42AKR 4th & 2 at M-OH 13, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call18.0%56% to convertField goal17.3%−0.785% to makePunt12.1%−5.9average punt
- Q3 4:30M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 22, up 14Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 86.3% before the snapGo for it87.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.9%−1.1average punt
- Q3 3:04AKR 4th & 6 at AKR 21, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snapGo for it13.5%−1.038% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.4%average punt
- Q4 14:04M-OH 4th & 9 at AKR 17, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.2% before the snapGo for it88.5%−1.329% to convertField goalTheir call89.8%80% to makePunt82.4%−7.4average punt
- Q4 11:16M-OH 4th & 14 at M-OH 5, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.7% before the snapGo for it92.0%−1.716% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.7%average punt
- Q4 9:21AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 30, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q4 6:45M-OH 4th & 3 at M-OH 37, up 24Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 2:03M-OH 4th & 7 at M-OH 38, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.3%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.4%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AKR made the numbers' call on 0 of 1M-OH made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 3:21M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.7%97% to makeGo for two68.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:26M-OH Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.3%97% to makeGo for two74.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:15M-OH Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%−0.297% to makeGo for two98.4%45% to convert
- Q4 4:01AKR Touchdown, down 18 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick2.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call2.5%−0.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartM-OHDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5778% → 77%
AKRDrive 2PUNT10 plays · 40 yds · 3:0123% → 25%
Q1 13:03
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+11
22.9%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 11 yds to the Akron 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
23.0%
DJ Irons pass complete to Daniel George for 11 yds to the Akron 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:02
4TH & 6
OPP 47
+9
24.5%
Noah Gettman punt for 41 yds , Yahsyn McKee returns for 9 yds to the MiaOh 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 2:3776% → 74%
AKRDrive 4PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 1:1826% → 26%
M-OHDrive 5TD7 plays · 39 yds · 2:4674% → 77%
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
25.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 9 yds to the Akron 30Similar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
25.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kenny Tracy for 9 yds to the Akron 18Similar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
25.3%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kenny Tracy for no gain to the Akron 11Similar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+11
23.5%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Nate Muersch for 11 yds for a TD, (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6FG17 plays · 70 yds · 5:2225% → 29%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+31
24.5%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 31 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
25.4%
DJ Irons pass complete to Clyde Price III for 2 yds Clyde Price III fumbled, recovered by MiaOh Clyde Price IiiSimilar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 12
OPP 48
+12
24.8%
DJ Irons pass complete to Alex Adams for 12 yds to the MiaOh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+4
25.9%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 4 yds to the MiaOh 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 3:1772% → 71%
AKRDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5129% → 28%
Q2 7:40
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+6
28.3%
Noah Gettman punt for 48 yds , Yahsyn McKee returns for 6 yds to the MiaOh 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9TD8 plays · 76 yds · 3:1472% → 79%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+43
28.3%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Coldiron for 43 yds to the Akron 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
26.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Miles Marshall for 9 yds to the Akron 24Similar
Q2 4:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
20.7%
Keyon Mozee 3 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick), (Graham Nicholson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 1:4621% → 21%
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
20.8%
DJ Irons pass complete to Tristian Brank for 4 yds to the Akron 29Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
21.0%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 1 yd to the Akron 28Similar
Q2 4:26
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
20.3%
DJ Irons pass complete to Tristian Brank for 4 yds to the Akron 32Similar
Q2 2:40
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+2
20.5%
Noah Gettman punt for 45 yds , Yahsyn McKee returns for 2 yds to the MiaOh 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11FG5 plays · 60 yds · 1:2979% → 84%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+58
21.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 58 yds to the Akron 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12END OF HALF7 plays · 39 yds · 1:0417% → 19%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
16.8%
DJ Irons sacked by Brian Ugwu for a loss of 5 yards to the Akron 18Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+9
16.6%
DJ Irons pass complete to TJ Banks for 9 yds to the Akron 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+27
17.1%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 27 yds to the MiaOh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 1:4317% → 18%
M-OHDrive 14PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 2:5684% → 85%
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
15.8%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Miles Marshall for 3 yds to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q3 13:17
3RD & 7
OWN 30
-5
16.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Gabbert,Brett pass complete deep left to Tracy,Kenny for 64 yards to the AKRON06 (Lewis,Darrian) PENALTY MIAMI Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Borders,Kolby) 5 yards from MIAMI30 to MIAMI25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:17
4TH & 7
OWN 30
+5
16.7%
PENALTY AKRON Offside (Brank,Tristian) 5 yards from MIAMI30 to MIAMI35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:21
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
15.5%
Dom Dzioban punt for 42 yds , Tony Grimes Jr. returns for no gain to the Akron 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15DOWNS13 plays · 64 yds · 3:3916% → 17%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
16.1%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 9 yds to the Akron 32Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+7
17.1%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 7 yds to the Akron 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+10
17.5%
DJ Irons pass complete to Alex Adams for 10 yds to the MiaOh 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
18.5%
DJ Irons pass complete to Caleb Anderson for 4 yds to the MiaOh 17Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+4
18.5%
DJ Irons pass complete to Tony Grimes Jr. for 4 yds to the MiaOh 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 19 yds · 2:1289% → 89%
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
11.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 9 yds to the MiaOh 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2613% → 13%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
13.4%
DJ Irons pass complete to Clyde Price III for 2 yds to the Akron 19Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 8
OWN 19
-5
13.3%
PENALTY AKRON False Start (Whigan,Anthony) 5 yards from AKRON19 to AKRON14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 13
OWN 14
+7
12.9%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 7 yds to the Akron 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18FG10 plays · 28 yds · 4:0091% → 95%
Q3 3:04
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+15
9.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Gabbert,Brett pass incomplete short right to Hippenhammer,Mac PENALTY AKRON UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Jones,Victor) 15 yards from AKRON44 to AKRON29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19FUMBLE3 plays · 36 yds · 1:018% → 9%
M-OHDrive 20PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:3995% → 96%
Q4 12:55
3RD & 6
OWN 13
-8
5.0%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Darrian Lewis for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaOh 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 21INT TD3 plays · 22 yds · 1:016% → 2%
AKRDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:492% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 2:3699% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 24TD9 plays · 77 yds · 2:441% → 3%
Q4 6:45
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+35
1.2%
DJ Irons pass complete to Alex Adams for 35 yds to the MiaOh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+9
2.5%
DJ Irons pass complete to Alex Adams for 9 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-15
2.6%
PENALTY AKRON UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Undercuffler,Jeff) 15 yards from MIAMI18 to MIAMI28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-15
2.6%
PENALTY AKRON UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Undercuffler,Jeff) 15 yards from MIAMI28 to MIAMI03. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 25PUNT9 plays · 13 yds · 1:5898% → 99%
Q4 2:03
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+10
1.2%
Dom Dzioban punt for 46 yds , Tony Grimes Jr. returns for 10 yds to the Akron 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 26FUMBLE2 plays · 12 yds · 0:051% → 1%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
1.4%
DJ Irons pass complete to Alex Adams for 16 yds to the Akron 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-4
1.4%
DJ Irons sacked by Marlon Dawson Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the Akron 38 DJ Irons fumbled, recovered by MiaOh Nasir Washington , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:26
Keyon Mozee 3 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick), (Graham Nicholson KICK)
-5
TD · Q4 10:15
Jacquez Warren 62 Yd Interception Return (Graham Nicholson Kick)
-4.7
FG · Q2 1:11
Graham Nicholson 33 yd FG GOOD
-4.2