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TOL

Toledo 27 at Eastern Michigan 24

EMU
2022 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2022 · Rynearson Stadium
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Win probability · EMU
modelEMU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playEMU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:03 · Mitchell Tomasek punt for 42 yds , Adam Beale returns for 4 yds to the Toled 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differential
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 101Pregame prior−5.6Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5Score differential−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 7:51: Jesus Gomez 34 yd FG GOOD — EMU win probability +13.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:12: Tucker Gleason pass complete to Mikel Barkley for 14 yds for a TD, (Luke Pawlak KICK) — TOL win probability +14.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:43: Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 35 yds for a TD, (Luke Pawlak KICK) — TOL win probability +15.0 pts (now 59%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:17: Samson Evans run for 11 yds for a TD, (Jesus Gomez KICK) — EMU win probability +22.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:09: Tucker Gleason pass complete to Lenny Kuhl for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Pawlak KICK) — TOL win probability +53.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
EMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 10:57EMU 4th & 13 at TOL 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:47TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:57TOL 4th & 7 at EMU 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    46.0%−3.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:43EMU 4th & 1 at TOL 46, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    46.1%−1.8
    23% to make
    Punt
    46.8%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:51EMU 4th & 5 at TOL 16, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    47.4%−4.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:29EMU 4th & 18 at EMU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−2.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:51EMU 4th & 26 at EMU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−1.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:03EMU 4th & 11 at EMU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−3.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:55TOL 4th & 5 at EMU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    52.3%−1.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    51.0%−2.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:37TOL 4th & 20 at EMU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−5.2
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    12.7%−10.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:20EMU 4th & 18 at EMU 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−6.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:07TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 34, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%−1.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:48EMU 4th & 4 at EMU 35, up 4
    Close callPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:31TOL 4th & 10 at EMU 39, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.0%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    21.9%
    36% to make
    Punt
    17.4%−4.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:21EMU 4th & 2 at EMU 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.3%−7.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:58TOL 4th & 8 at EMU 31, up 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 8.1 ptsPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−2.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    88.0%
    54% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%−8.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
EMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:35EMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:12TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:30EMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:43TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:17EMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:09TOL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
EMUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 3:5637% → 38%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
36.9%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Gunnar Oakes for 5 yds to the EMich 48Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+4
36.9%
Samson Evans run for 4 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+3
36.9%
Samson Evans run for 3 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
36.9%
Hassan Beydoun run for 2 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+2
36.9%
Samson Evans run for 2 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 6
OPP 41
-7
36.9%
Taylor Powell sacked by Dyontae Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 48Similar
Q1 10:57
4TH & 13
OPP 48
0
38.3%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 7 , Adam Beale returns for no gain to the Toled 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:1062% → 61%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
38.4%
Jacquez Stuart run for 9 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 1
OWN 16
+10
38.3%
Jacquez Stuart run for 10 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
38.3%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
38.4%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
38.5%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Mikel BarkleySimilar
Q1 9:47
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
39.1%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Dylan Drummond at the EMich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 3TD
15 plays · 61 yds · 6:1239% → 49%
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
39.1%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Darius Lassiter for no gain to the EMich 39Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
39.0%
Samson Evans run for no gain to the EMich 39Similar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+19
38.8%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 19 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
39.5%
Samson Evans run for 9 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+2
39.6%
Taylor Powell run for 2 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
39.6%
PENALTY EMU False Start (Rewolinski,Mickey) 5 yards from TOL31 to TOL36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+7
38.5%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 7 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+9
38.8%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 9 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
38.8%
Taylor Powell run for no gain to the Toled 20Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+8
38.8%
Samson Evans run for 8 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q1 9:47
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+9
38.5%
Jaylon Jackson run for 9 yds to the Toled 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
49.3%
Samson Evans run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jesus Gomez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4FG
10 plays · 56 yds · 3:3855% → 56%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
44.6%
Jacquez Stuart run for 7 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-5
44.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Gleason,Tucker pass complete deep right to Zsiros,Thomas for 13 yards to the EMU45 (Sparacio,Joe) PENALTY TOL Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Sciury,Vinny) 5 yards from TOL42 to TOL37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+15
44.5%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (Brandon Benson) to the EMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+24
43.7%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Devin Maddox for 24 yds to the EMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
42.9%
Jacquez Stuart run for 13 yds to the EMich 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
42.9%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the EMich 9Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+2
42.9%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 2 yds to the EMich 7Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+2
46.1%
Tucker Gleason run for 2 yds to the EMich 9Similar
Q2 14:57
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+27
44.1%
Luke Pawlak 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 5FG
15 plays · 54 yds · 6:5244% → 59%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
43.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Powell,Taylor pass intercepted by Mitchell,Quinyon at EMU47, End Of Play PENALTY TOL Roughing The Passer (Johnson,Desjuan) 15 yards from EMU30 to EMU45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
45.1%
Jaylon Jackson run for 2 yds to the EMich 47Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+5
45.0%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Tanner Knue for 5 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+2
44.6%
Samson Evans run for 2 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q2 14:43
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+4
44.0%
Samson Evans run for 4 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
45.4%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 18
50
+2
44.3%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 2 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 16
OPP 48
+10
43.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Powell,Taylor pass complete short right to Jackson,Jaylon for 1 yard to the TOL47, End Of Play PENALTY TOL Holding (Ford,Zachary) 10 yards from TOL48 to TOL38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+17
45.4%
Austin Smith run for 17 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
45.5%
Samson Evans run for 5 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 5
OPP 16
0
45.5%
Hassan Beydoun run for no gain to the Toled 16Similar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
45.1%
Austin Smith pass incomplete to Gunnar OakesSimilar
Q2 7:51
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+34
58.5%
Jesus Gomez 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:3944% → 62%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
56.0%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (David Carter Jr.) to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+19
54.2%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Mikel Barkley for 19 yds to the EMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
52.6%
Peny Boone run for 12 yds to the EMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
52.3%
Tucker Gleason run for 8 yds to the EMich 14Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+14
38.2%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Mikel Barkley for 14 yds for a TD, (Luke Pawlak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 3 yds · 2:4346% → 44%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.0%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for no gain to the EMich 25Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
45.7%
Jaylon Jackson run for 1 yd to the EMich 26Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
44.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Powell,Taylor pass incomplete short right to Beydoun,Hassan PENALTY TOL Holding (Delancy III,Ronald) 10 yards from EMU26 to EMU36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
46.9%
Taylor Powell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
46.4%
Taylor Powell run for 2 yds to the EMich 38Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-10
46.0%
Taylor Powell sacked by Desjuan Johnson for a loss of 10 yards to the EMich 28Similar
Q2 3:29
4TH & 18
OWN 28
0
44.2%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -16 yds · 1:3850% → 47%
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
50.2%
Hassan Beydoun run for 1 yd to the Toled 36Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 11
OPP 36
-10
49.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Smith,Austin rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TOL30 (Bauer,Nate) PENALTY EMU Holding (Rewolinski,Mickey) 10 yards from TOL36 to TOL46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:29
2ND & 21
OPP 46
+5
48.0%
Austin Smith run for 5 yds to the EMich 49Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 26
OWN 49
0
46.7%
Taylor Powell pass incomplete to Samson EvansSimilar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 26
OWN 49
0
46.7%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9FUMBLE
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
46.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the Toled 5 Jacquez Stuart fumbled, recovered by EMich Jose RamirezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1453% → 67%
Q2 1:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
52.5%
Darius Boone Jr. run for 2 yds to the Toled 3Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
52.5%
Samson Evans run for 2 yds to the Toled 1Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.8%
Samson Evans run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jesus Gomez KICK)Similar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
66.8%
PENALTY TOL Leaping 15 yards from EMU35 to EMU50. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
67.3%
Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the Toled 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1741% → 59%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
59.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Mikel Barkley for 11 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
58.2%
Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+4
57.0%
Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+2
57.0%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
56.8%
TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 6
50
0
56.1%
Micah Kelly run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
50
+15
56.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Gleason,Tucker pass incomplete short right to Newton,Jerjuan PENALTY EMU Pass Interference (Shine,Kempton) 15 yards from EMU50 to EMU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
41.2%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 35 yds for a TD, (Luke Pawlak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3548% → 46%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
47.9%
Samson Evans run for no gain to the EMich 14Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+1
47.6%
Austin Smith pass complete to Jaylon Jackson for 1 yd to the EMich 13Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 11
OWN 13
0
46.3%
Austin Smith pass incomplete to Tanner KnueSimilar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 11
OWN 13
+4
46.1%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 42 yds , Adam Beale returns for 4 yds to the Toled 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14DOWNS
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:0858% → 56%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
41.7%
Peny Boone run for 9 yds to the EMich 42Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 1
OPP 42
0
40.8%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Thomas ZsirosSimilar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+2
41.0%
Tucker Gleason run for 2 yds to the EMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
41.2%
Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the EMich 37Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+2
41.2%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Peny Boone for 2 yds to the EMich 35Similar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
41.5%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q3 7:55
4TH & 5
OPP 35
0
44.2%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 15TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:3848% → 75%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
47.7%
Samson Evans run for 4 yds to the EMich 39Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
50.4%
Austin Smith run for no gain to the EMich 39Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+10
47.7%
Austin Smith run for 10 yds to the EMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
51.1%
Samson Evans run for 3 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+23
51.6%
Dylan Drummond pass complete to Tanner Knue for 23 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
52.8%
Jaylon Jackson run for 7 yds to the Toled 18Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+2
52.8%
Jaylon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+3
50.9%
Samson Evans run for 3 yds to the Toled 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
52.8%
Samson Evans run for 2 yds to the Toled 11Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+11
75.3%
Samson Evans run for 11 yds for a TD, (Jesus Gomez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16FG
14 plays · 52 yds · 4:3534% → 38%
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
66.4%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Mikel BarkleySimilar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
66.8%
Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+16
67.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Peny Boone for 16 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+23
64.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jamal Turner for 23 yds to the EMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
59.9%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the EMich 37Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 12
OPP 37
0
63.2%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 12
OPP 37
+21
64.4%
Tucker Gleason run for 21 yds to the EMich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
59.1%
Jacquez Stuart run for 4 yds to the EMich 12Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+2
62.6%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the EMich 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 10
-10
64.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Gleason,Tucker pass complete short right to Barkley,Mikel for 3 yards to the EMU07, out of bounds at EMU07 PENALTY TOL Holding (Rogers,Devan) 10 yards from EMU10 to EMU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 20
-6
68.0%
Tucker Gleason sacked by Jose Ramirez for a loss of 6 yards to the EMich 26 Tucker Gleason fumbled, recovered by Toled Mikel Barkley , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 13:37
4TH & 20
OPP 26
+44
62.4%
Luke Pawlak 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 20 yds · 4:0763% → 62%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
62.7%
Samson Evans run for 3 yds to the EMich 31Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+3
62.6%
Samson Evans run for 3 yds to the EMich 34Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+11
62.0%
Austin Smith pass complete to Tanner Knue for 11 yds to the EMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
66.0%
Samson Evans run for 11 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
67.0%
Samson Evans run for 1 yd to the Toled 45Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+2
66.1%
Austin Smith run for 2 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 13
OPP 47
+5
62.9%
Austin Smith pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 5 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 8
OPP 42
-5
62.3%
PENALTY EMU Delay Of Game 5 yards from TOL42 to TOL47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 13
OPP 47
-5
60.6%
PENALTY EMU Delay Of Game 5 yards from TOL47 to EMU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:20
4TH & 18
OWN 48
+28
61.9%
punt for 35 yds , Adam Beale returns for 28 yds to the Toled 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1338% → 36%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
62.5%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Mikel Barkley for 6 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+2
60.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 2
OWN 34
0
62.3%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q4 8:07
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
64.3%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Dylan Drummond at the EMich 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1969% → 70%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
68.6%
Samson Evans run for 5 yds to the EMich 34Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+1
69.5%
Samson Evans run for 1 yd to the EMich 35Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
67.9%
Austin Smith pass incomplete to Tanner KnueSimilar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 4
OWN 35
0
69.7%
Mitchell Tomasek punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20TD
16 plays · 74 yds · 4:3938% → 87%
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
62.4%
Peny Boone run for 8 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+3
58.9%
Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
60.9%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+5
59.3%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Devin Maddox for 20 yds to the EASTMICH 40 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jacquez Stuart) to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
58.4%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Mikel BarkleySimilar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
60.1%
Tucker Gleason run for 6 yds to the EMich 49Similar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 4
OPP 49
-5
56.8%
PENALTY TOL False Start (Major,Kendall) 5 yards from EMU49 to TOL46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+15
61.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Mikel Barkley for 15 yds to the EMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
62.9%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Jerjuan NewtonSimilar
Q4 3:31
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
63.2%
Peny Boone run for no gain to the EMich 39Similar
Q4 3:31
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
65.7%
Tucker Gleason pass incomplete to Peny BooneSimilar
Q4 3:31
4TH & 10
OPP 39
+36
68.8%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Devin Maddox for 36 yds to the EMich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
66.3%
PENALTY EMU Delay Of Game (Sparacio,Joe) 2 yards from EMU03 to EMU01. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
13.2%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Lenny Kuhl for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Pawlak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:4824% → 18%
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.8%
Taylor Powell pass incomplete to Dylan DrummondSimilar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
23.1%
Taylor Powell pass incomplete to Darius LassiterSimilar
Q4 2:09
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
22.1%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Samson Evans for 8 yds to the EMich 33Similar
Q4 1:21
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
18.4%
Taylor Powell pass incomplete to Darius LassiterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:2392% → 93%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
7.9%
Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the EMich 36Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 13
OPP 36
+4
7.1%
Tucker Gleason run for 4 yds to the EMich 32Similar
Q4 1:12
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+1
7.5%
Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the EMich 31Similar
Q4 0:58
4TH & 8
OPP 31
0
7.3%
Luke Pawlak punt for 19 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 23INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:2916% → 12%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
15.5%
Taylor Powell pass incomplete to Jaylon JacksonSimilar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+13
15.0%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Darius Lassiter for 13 yds to the EMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.7%
Taylor Powell pass incomplete to Samson EvansSimilar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
12.1%
Taylor Powell pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:09
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Lenny Kuhl for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Pawlak KICK)
-53.2
TD · Q3 3:17
Samson Evans run for 11 yds for a TD, (Jesus Gomez KICK)
+22.5
TD · Q3 11:43
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 35 yds for a TD, (Luke Pawlak KICK)
-15
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com