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BGSU

Bowling Green 34 at Central Michigan 18

CMU
2022 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2022 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreBGSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-4.2CMU 56.0%Mason Lawler 38 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 3 · Q2 10:27
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:27 · Mason Lawler 38 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Home team on offense−4.3Pregame prior+10.6Score differential−1.6Garbage-time factor−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 10:27: Mason Lawler 38 yd FG GOOD — BGSU win probability +4.2 pts (now 44%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:22: Tyrone Broden 11 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Mason Lawler Kick) — BGSU win probability +14.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:46: Josh Rolston kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive Offside (-5 Yards) — CMU win probability +8.9 pts (now 47%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:49: Demetrius Hardamon 45 Yd Fumble Return (Mason Lawler Kick) — BGSU win probability +20.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:13: Joel Wilson 8 Yd pass from Jase Bauer (Jase Bauer Pass to Carlos Carriere for Two-Point Conversion) — CMU win probability +13.2 pts (now 22%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7BGSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 10:48BGSU 4th & 1 at CMU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    32.4%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    31.8%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:20CMU 4th & 11 at CMU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:20BGSU 4th & 16 at BGSU 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:15CMU 4th & 4 at BGSU 34, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.0%−0.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    62.8%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:12BGSU 4th & 17 at BGSU 49, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−1.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:05CMU 4th & 4 at CMU 13, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:27BGSU 4th & 14 at CMU 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    33.2%−4.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:41CMU 4th & 2 at BGSU 47, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:06BGSU 4th & 9 at CMU 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:06BGSU 4th & 9 at CMU 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:44CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 17, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%−1.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:59BGSU 4th & 18 at BGSU 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−3.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:48CMU 4th & 7 at BGSU 8, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.6%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    42.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    28.7%−13.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:15BGSU 4th & 13 at BGSU 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−4.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:53BGSU 4th & 2 at CMU 2, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.3%−2.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    61.5%−10.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:49CMU 4th & 4 at CMU 43, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.2%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:04BGSU 4th & 10 at CMU 41, up 9
    Close callPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    85.2%−0.7
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:49BGSU 4th & 5 at CMU 31, up 9
    Close callWent for it · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    94.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    92.5%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1BGSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 10:48BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:22BGSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:49BGSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:13CMU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    12.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    12.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:49BGSU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BGSUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1834% → 36%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
65.7%
Ta'ron Keith run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+46
65.7%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 46 yds to the CMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
65.5%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 9 yds to the CMich 11Similar
Q1 13:54
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+4
65.5%
Ta'ron Keith run for 4 yds to the CMich 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
65.5%
Jaison Patterson run for no gain to the CMich 7Similar
Q1 13:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
65.5%
Matt McDonald run for 3 yds to the CMich 4Similar
Q1 13:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
65.6%
Matt McDonald run for 3 yds to the CMich 1Similar
Q1 10:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.7%
Harold Fannin Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mason Lawler KICK)Similar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
63.8%
Lawler,Mason kickoff 60 yards to the CMU05 Stepney,De'Javion return 14 yards to the CMU19 (McGary,Avi) PENALTY BGS Offside 5 yards from BGS35 to BGS30. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1464% → 63%
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
64.2%
Marion Lukes run for 1 yd to the CMich 42Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+2
64.1%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 11
OWN 40
0
63.9%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Jalen McGaughySimilar
Q1 9:20
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
63.2%
Luke Elzinga punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BwGrn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 2:0037% → 37%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
63.4%
Jamal Johnson run for no gain to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
63.4%
Matt McDonald run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-8
63.6%
Matt McDonald sacked by Thomas Incoom for a loss of 8 yards to the BwGrn 14Similar
Q1 7:20
4TH & 16
OWN 14
0
62.6%
Sami Sir punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4FG
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:0563% → 64%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
63.0%
Jase Bauer run for 4 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+5
63.2%
Marion Lukes run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+6
63.2%
Jase Bauer run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
63.3%
Jase Bauer run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+4
63.3%
Jase Bauer run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
63.3%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Finn HoganSimilar
Q1 4:15
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+52
63.7%
Marshall Meeder 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:5737% → 37%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+36
63.2%
Jaison Patterson run for 36 yds to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
62.1%
PENALTY BGS False Start (Wollschlaeger,Alex) 5 yards from CMU44 to CMU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 15
OPP 49
-10
62.4%
Matt McDonald sacked by LaQuan Johnson Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 25
OWN 41
-5
62.9%
Matt McDonald sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 30
OWN 36
+13
63.3%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 13 yds to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 30
OWN 36
+13
63.3%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 13 yds to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q1 1:12
4TH & 17
OWN 49
0
62.6%
Sami Sir punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:0762% → 61%
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
62.1%
Marion Lukes run for 3 yds to the CMich 10Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 10
-7
61.7%
Daniel Richardson sacked by Demetrius Hardamon for a loss of 7 yards to the CMich 3Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 3
+10
61.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Jalen McGaughy for 10 yds to the CMich 13Similar
Q2 14:05
4TH & 4
OWN 13
+27
60.7%
Luke Elzinga punt for 54 yds , Jake Rogers returns for 27 yds to the CMich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7FG
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:3840% → 44%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
60.1%
Ta'ron Keith run for 2 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+1
60.2%
Jamal Johnson run for 1 yd to the CMich 39Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+23
60.4%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 23 yds to the CMich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
59.9%
Cavon Croom run for 6 yds to the CMich 10Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+1
59.9%
Jaison Patterson run for 1 yd to the CMich 11Similar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 5
OPP 11
-9
60.2%
Matt McDonald sacked by Kyle Moretti for a loss of 9 yards to the CMich 20Similar
Q2 10:27
4TH & 14
OPP 20
+38
56.0%
Mason Lawler 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 1:4657% → 57%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
56.5%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Cashius Howell) to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
57.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Joel Wilson for 4 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+4
58.4%
Marion Lukes run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q2 10:27
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
58.5%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Cade ConleySimilar
Q2 10:27
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
58.5%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Cade ConleySimilar
Q2 8:41
4TH & 2
OPP 47
0
56.5%
Luke Elzinga punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9PUNT
13 plays · 43 yds · 8:3544% → 54%
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+20
55.7%
Jaison Patterson run for 20 yds to the BwGrn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
54.5%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+14
55.1%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 14 yds to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+1
53.2%
Jamal Johnson run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
53.3%
Matt McDonald sacked by LaQuan Johnson Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+17
55.1%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 17 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
52.8%
Jamal Johnson run for 4 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+2
52.7%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 2 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 4
OPP 43
-5
53.0%
PENALTY BGS False Start (Grant,Jalen) 5 yards from CMU43 to CMU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
53.1%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to CJ LewisSimilar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
53.1%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to CJ LewisSimilar
Q2 4:06
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
50.4%
Sami Sir punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jesse Prewitt III at the CMich 8Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
45.6%
Sami Sir punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jesse Prewitt III at the CMich 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2251% → 50%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
51.1%
Marion Lukes run for no gain to the CMich 8Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+7
51.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Jake Tafelski for 7 yds to the CMich 15Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+2
50.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 2 yds to the CMich 17Similar
Q2 2:44
4TH & 1
OWN 17
0
49.9%
Luke Elzinga punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jake Rogers at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 2:2256% → 72%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
50
-10
44.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Keith,Ta'ron rush left for 4 yards gain to the CMU46 (Moretti,Kyle), out of bounds PENALTY BGS Holding (Hiliare,Odieu) 10 yards from CMU50 to BGS40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 20
OWN 40
+19
46.3%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 19 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+13
44.2%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 13 yds to the CMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+19
43.9%
Matt McDonald pass complete to CJ Lewis for 19 yds to the CMich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
43.9%
Jaison Patterson run for 4 yds to the CMich 13Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+2
44.0%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 2 yds to the CMich 11Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
27.6%
Tyrone Broden 11 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Mason Lawler Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · -14 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-14
35.4%
Daniel Richardson sacked by Karl Brooks for a loss of 14 yards to the CMich 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13TD
3 plays · 35 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
38.3%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Joel Wilson for 14 yds to the BwGrn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+18
38.4%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Joel Wilson for 18 yds to the BwGrn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 3:4756% → 57%
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
44.0%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 11 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
42.3%
Ta'ron Keith run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+8
42.2%
Ta'ron Keith run for 8 yds to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
41.7%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Jamal Johnson for 1 yd to the CMich 45Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 11
OPP 45
0
41.8%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Ta'ron KeithSimilar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 11
OPP 45
-5
42.8%
PENALTY BGS Delay Of Game 5 yards from CMU45 to CMU50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 16
50
-15
44.2%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 16
50
+2
44.2%
Matt McDonald run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+17
41.9%
Matt McDonald run for 17 yds to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q3 9:59
4TH & 18
OWN 48
0
43.2%
Sami Sir punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15FUMBLE
11 plays · 64 yds · 5:1144% → 42%
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
43.8%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Joel Wilson for 1 yd to the CMich 21Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-6
43.7%
Jase Bauer sacked by Walter Haire for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 15Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+60
42.2%
Jase Bauer run for 60 yds to the BwGrn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
49.7%
Jake Tafelski run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
49.7%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Face Mask (0 yards) (Dierre Kelly) to the BwGrn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
49.7%
Jake Tafelski run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 12Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 11
OPP 12
-10
49.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bauer,Jase rush left for 2 yards gain to the BGS10 (Simms,Trent) PENALTY CMU Holding (McGaughy,Jalen) 10 yards from BGS12 to BGS22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 21
OPP 22
+7
48.6%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Langston Lewis for 7 yds to the BwGrn 15Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 14
OPP 15
+7
45.5%
Jase Bauer run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 8Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 14
OPP 15
+7
45.5%
Jase Bauer run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 8Similar
Q3 4:48
4TH & 7
OPP 8
-8
42.3%
Jase Bauer sacked by Patrick Day for a loss of 8 yards to the BwGrn 23 Jase Bauer fumbled, recovered by BwGrn Cashius Howell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 8 yds · 4:3363% → 65%
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
37.0%
Jaison Patterson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+3
36.7%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Andrew Bench for 3 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q3 4:48
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+6
37.0%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Cavon Croom for 6 yds to the BwGrn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
35.7%
Jaison Patterson run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 5
OWN 39
-5
34.3%
PENALTY BGS False Start (Grant,Jalen) 5 yards from BGS39 to BGS34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-12
36.3%
Matt McDonald sacked by Jason Williams for a loss of 12 yards to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q3 4:48
3RD & 22
OWN 22
-5
38.6%
PENALTY BGS Delay Of Game 5 yards from BGS22 to BGS17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:48
3RD & 27
OWN 17
+14
38.6%
Jamal Johnson run for 14 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q3 4:48
3RD & 27
OWN 17
+14
38.6%
Jamal Johnson run for 14 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q3 0:15
4TH & 13
OWN 31
0
35.1%
Sami Sir punt for 39 yds , Jesse Prewitt III returns for no gain to the CMich 28 Jesse Prewitt III fumbled, recovered by BwGrn Nick NiehoffSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17FG
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:0772% → 74%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
27.9%
Jaison Patterson run for 10 yds to the CMich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
27.8%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Kyle Moretti) to the CMich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
27.8%
Jaison Patterson run for 3 yds to the CMich 6Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
27.8%
Harold Fannin Jr. run for 3 yds to the CMich 3Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
28.7%
Jaison Patterson run for 1 yd to the CMich 2Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
28.7%
Jaison Patterson run for 1 yd to the CMich 2Similar
Q4 12:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
26.2%
Mason Lawler 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18FUMBLE RETURN TD
14 plays · 20 yds · 3:0425% → 7%
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
24.7%
Jase Bauer run for 7 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+18
25.7%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Joel Wilson for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
50
-10
27.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Stepney,De'Javion rush left for 6 yards gain to the BGS44 (Simms,Trent) PENALTY CMU Holding 10 yards from CMU50 to CMU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 20
OWN 40
-5
25.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Stepney,De'Javion rush right for 18 yards gain to the BGS42 (Jones Jr.,Deshawn) PENALTY CMU Illegal Formation 5 yards from CMU40 to CMU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 25
OWN 35
+5
24.6%
PENALTY BGS Offside (Howell,Cashius) 5 yards from CMU35 to CMU40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 20
OWN 40
+6
25.4%
Jase Bauer run for 6 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 14
OWN 46
-5
25.4%
PENALTY CMU False Start (Swartout,Brayden) 5 yards from CMU46 to CMU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 19
OWN 41
+10
25.3%
Shotgun Bauer,Jase pass complete short middle to Jackson,Irone for 10 yards to the BGS49 (Brown,JB) PENALTY BGS Holding 10 yards from CMU41 to BGS49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
28.1%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Ke'Shon ParkerSimilar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
27.4%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Langston LewisSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
28.1%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Ke'Shon ParkerSimilar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
27.4%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Langston LewisSimilar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+45
7.4%
Demetrius Hardamon 45 Yd Fumble Return (Mason Lawler Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 3:367% → 22%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
7.0%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Irone Jackson for 12 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
7.2%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Jake TafelskiSimilar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
7.1%
Jase Bauer pass complete to De'Javion Stepney for 2 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+4
7.1%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Irone Jackson for 4 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q4 9:49
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+10
7.3%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Joel Wilson for 10 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
7.8%
Jase Bauer run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+15
7.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bauer,Jase pass incomplete short middle to Lewis,Langston PENALTY BGS Pass Interference (Oladokun,Jordan) 15 yards from BGS45 to BGS30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
8.6%
Jase Bauer run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+16
8.7%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jake Tafelski for 16 yds to the BwGrn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
8.7%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Ke'Shon ParkerSimilar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+16
8.7%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jake Tafelski for 16 yds to the BwGrn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
8.7%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Ke'Shon ParkerSimilar
Q4 6:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
22.0%
Joel Wilson 8 Yd pass from Jase Bauer (Jase Bauer Pass to Carlos Carriere for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20PUNT
13 plays · 14 yds · 6:0087% → 97%
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
13.1%
Jaison Patterson run for 14 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
12.6%
Jaison Patterson run for 2 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+1
10.9%
Jaison Patterson run for 1 yd to the CMich 40Similar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+4
10.4%
Jaison Patterson run for 4 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q4 5:13
4TH & 5
OPP 36
-5
9.4%
PENALTY BGS Delay Of Game 5 yards from CMU36 to CMU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:04
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
9.6%
Sami Sir punt for 37 ydsSimilar
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
3.4%
Jaison Patterson run for 14 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
3.2%
Jaison Patterson run for 2 yds to the CMich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21INT
6 plays · 58 yds · 2:2412% → 8%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+18
12.4%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 18 yds to the CMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-9
13.0%
Jase Bauer sacked by Karl Brooks for a loss of 9 yards to the CMich 13Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 19
OWN 13
+13
12.6%
Jase Bauer run for 13 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+22
12.3%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 22 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
14.9%
Jase Bauer run for 14 yds to the BwGrn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
7.8%
Jase Bauer pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:5194% → 99%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
5.6%
Jaison Patterson run for 1 yd to the CMich 35Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+1
5.5%
Jaison Patterson run for 1 yd to the CMich 34Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+3
5.6%
Jaison Patterson run for 3 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q4 0:49
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+31
1.1%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 31 yds for a TD CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined, (Mason Lawler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23END OF GAME
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:452% → 2%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
2.0%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jake Tafelski for 6 yds to the CMich 35Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+14
2.0%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 14 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
2.1%
Jase Bauer pass incomplete to Carlos CarriereSimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
2.0%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Finn Hogan for 3 yds to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+8
2.0%
Jase Bauer pass complete to Jake Tafelski for 8 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:49
Demetrius Hardamon 45 Yd Fumble Return (Mason Lawler Kick)
-20
TD · Q2 0:22
Tyrone Broden 11 Yd pass from Matt McDonald (Mason Lawler Kick)
-14.9
TD · Q4 6:13
Joel Wilson 8 Yd pass from Jase Bauer (Jase Bauer Pass to Carlos Carriere for Two-Point Conversion)
+13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com