2022 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2022 · Dix Stadium
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Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreAKR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:44 · Andrew Glass 42 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:47: Bryan Bradford run for 58 yds for a TD, (Andrew Glass KICK) — KENT win probability +5.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q2 7:36: Marquez Cooper run for 8 yds to the Akron 35 for a 1ST down — KENT win probability +4.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:18: Devontez Walker 14 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — KENT win probability +6.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:41: DJ Irons 5 Yd Run (Cory Smigel Kick) — AKR win probability +12.7 pts (now 24%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:39: Cory Smigel 42 Yd Field Goal — AKR win probability +5.2 pts (now 10%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KENT made the numbers' call on 8 of 8AKR made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 11:24KENT 4th & 13 at AKR 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.8% before the snapGo for it83.7%−0.119% to convertField goalTheir call83.8%75% to makePunt83.4%−0.4average punt
- Q1 9:44KENT 4th & 17 at KENT 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snapGo for it81.8%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.0%average punt
- Q1 3:03KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 46, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.9% before the snapGo for it78.0%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.1%average punt
- Q2 15:00AKR 4th & 6 at KENT 42, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call25.3%40% to convertField goal24.8%−0.530% to makePunt25.1%−0.2average punt
- Q2 10:52AKR 4th & 2 at KENT 4, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 28.5% before the snapGo for it28.4%50% to convertField goalTheir call27.6%−0.893% to makePunt24.0%−4.4average punt
- Q2 7:36AKR 4th & 2 at KENT 47, up 3Close callPunted · 27.1% before the snapGo for it27.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.5%−0.9average punt
- Q2 7:36KENT 4th & 2 at AKR 43, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call74.8%57% to convertField goal73.0%−1.828% to makePunt73.5%−1.3average punt
- Q3 10:07AKR 4th & 20 at AKR 35, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snapGo for it11.8%−2.510% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.3%average punt
- Q3 6:33KENT 4th & 6 at AKR 10, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.5% before the snapGo for it86.0%−0.235% to convertField goalTheir call86.2%88% to makePunt81.6%−4.6average punt
- Q3 0:31KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 40, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snapGo for it81.4%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.7%average punt
- Q4 13:12AKR 4th & 26 at AKR 2, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snapGo for it15.0%−5.45% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.4%average punt
- Q4 11:44KENT 4th & 8 at AKR 25, up 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.4% before the snapGo for it85.4%−0.533% to convertField goalTheir call85.9%66% to makePunt78.2%−7.7average punt
- Q4 11:42AKR 4th & 5 at KENT 34, down 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.9%42% to convertField goal12.1%−0.747% to makePunt11.0%−1.9average punt
- Q4 6:51AKR 4th & 1 at KENT 17, down 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.1%71% to convertField goal9.6%−2.580% to makePunt2.5%−9.5average punt
- Q4 4:53KENT 4th & 7 at KENT 32, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snapGo for it90.7%−0.936% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.6%average punt
- Q4 4:53AKR 4th & 3 at AKR 48, down 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.9%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt7.9%−1.0average punt
- Q4 0:39AKR 4th & 24 at KENT 24, down 9Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.6% before the snapGo for it5.1%−1.46% to convertField goalTheir call6.5%68% to makePunt4.2%−2.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2AKR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 11:12AKR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call16.8%97% to makeGo for two16.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:47KENT Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.5%97% to makeGo for two75.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:18KENT Touchdown, up 10 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick86.6%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call86.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:41AKR Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call16.7%97% to makeGo for two16.6%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENTDrive 1MISSED FG9 plays · 55 yds · 3:3687% → 86%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-10
86.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Kargman,Devin pass incomplete short left to Leach,Kris PENALTY KENT Holding (Marshall,Marcellus) 10 yards from ZIPS14 to ZIPS24. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2TD1 play · 80 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
85.1%
DJ Irons pass complete to Alex Adams for 80 yds for a TD, (Cory Smigel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 5 yds · 1:2885% → 84%
AKRDrive 4INT10 plays · 51 yds · 4:3116% → 19%
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
84.3%
DJ Irons pass complete to Clyde Price III for 15 yds to the Akron 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+7
84.1%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 7 yds to the KntSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
84.0%
DJ Irons sacked by Macyo Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 2:1082% → 80%
Q1 5:13
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+13
81.4%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Raymond James for 13 yds to the KntSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6FG16 plays · 86 yds · 7:1120% → 28%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-4
80.1%
DJ Irons sacked by Kesean Gamble for a loss of 4 yards to the Akron 6Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+8
80.3%
DJ Irons pass complete to Alex Adams for 8 yds to the Akron 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 42
+8
77.3%
DJ Irons pass complete to Alex Adams for 8 yds to the KntSt 34 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+22
76.6%
DJ Irons pass complete to Alex Adams for 22 yds to the KntSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7TD5 plays · 71 yds · 1:0073% → 79%
Q2 10:47
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+12
72.6%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Dante Cephas for 12 yds to the KntSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 28 yds · 2:1122% → 25%
KENTDrive 9TD7 plays · 76 yds · 0:0076% → 83%
AKRDrive 10TD12 plays · 75 yds · 3:0812% → 23%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
87.7%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 8 yds to the Akron 33Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
87.8%
DJ Irons pass complete to Daniel George for 5 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
87.6%
DJ Irons pass complete to Caleb Anderson for 11 yds to the Akron 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+36
86.8%
DJ Irons pass complete to Alex Adams for 36 yds to the KntSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
76.6%
PENALTY ZIPS UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting KENT UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11TD9 plays · 48 yds · 1:1582% → 82%
Q2 1:42
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+5
81.9%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Raymond James for 5 yds to the Akron 41Similar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+25
82.0%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Dante Cephas for 25 yds to the Akron 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+10
81.5%
Devontez Walker 10 Yd pass from Devin Kargman (Andrew Glass Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13INT6 plays · 30 yds · 1:3222% → 25%
KENTDrive 14TD10 plays · 87 yds · 2:0579% → 88%
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
78.8%
PENALTY KENT False Start (Washington,Savion) 5 yards from KENT13 to KENT08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:23
3RD & 11
OWN 12
+46
77.7%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 46 yds to the Akron 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
81.0%
PENALTY KENT False Start 5 yards from ZIPS42 to ZIPS47. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15PUNT4 plays · -10 yds · 1:0515% → 13%
Q3 10:07
4TH & 20
OWN 35
+15
87.5%
Noah Gettman punt for 45 yds , Raymond James returns for 15 yds to the KntSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 16FG11 plays · 55 yds · 3:3487% → 91%
Q3 10:07
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+7
87.6%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Dante Cephas for 7 yds to the KntSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+24
87.7%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Gavin Garcia for 24 yds to the Akron 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
88.1%
PENALTY KENT False Start (Bailey,Jack) 5 yards from ZIPS14 to ZIPS19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+4
86.8%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Trell Harris for 4 yds to the Akron 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17TD12 plays · 71 yds · 3:4911% → 24%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
89.2%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 5 yds to the Akron 34Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+10
89.1%
DJ Irons pass complete to Daniel George for 10 yds to the Akron 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+24
88.9%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 24 yds to the KntSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
87.0%
DJ Irons pass complete to Daniel George for 7 yds to the KntSt 24Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+15
86.8%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shawn Naim for 15 yds to the KntSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 2:1083% → 83%
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
82.7%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Devontez Walker for 9 yds to the KntSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19PUNT4 plays · -16 yds · 1:4819% → 16%
KENTDrive 20FG4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2886% → 88%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
86.3%
Devin Kargman pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 5 yds to the Akron 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 21DOWNS14 plays · 48 yds · 4:5112% → 11%
Q4 11:42
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
87.1%
DJ Irons pass complete to Clyde Price III for 4 yds to the Akron 43Similar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
87.0%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 4 yds to the Akron 49Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+12
86.4%
DJ Irons pass complete to Alex Adams for 12 yds to the KntSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-4
86.2%
DJ Irons sacked by Saivon Taylor-Davis for a loss of 4 yards to the KntSt 43Similar
Q4 11:42
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+8
87.8%
DJ Irons pass complete to Alex Adams for 8 yds to the KntSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+6
86.4%
DJ Irons pass complete to Caleb Anderson for 6 yds to the KntSt 17Similar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 14
OPP 43
+9
88.5%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 9 yds to the KntSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 22PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 1:5892% → 97%
Q4 4:53
4TH & 7
OWN 32
+7
96.6%
Josh Smith punt for 44 yds , Tony Grimes Jr. returns for 7 yds to the Akron 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 23FG15 plays · 45 yds · 4:148% → 10%
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
91.6%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 10 yds to the Akron 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
91.1%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 4 yds to the Akron 45Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+3
90.9%
DJ Irons pass complete to Clyde Price III for 3 yds to the Akron 48Similar
Q4 4:53
4TH & 3
OWN 48
+16
91.4%
DJ Irons pass complete to Alex Adams for 16 yds to the KntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+6
89.3%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 6 yds to the KntSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 24END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:41
DJ Irons 5 Yd Run (Cory Smigel Kick)
-12.7
TD · Q3 11:18
Devontez Walker 14 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+6.6
TD · Q2 9:47
Bryan Bradford run for 58 yds for a TD, (Andrew Glass KICK)
+5.6