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WMU

Western Michigan 16 at Miami (OH) 10

M-OH
2022 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2022 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:55 · Palmer Domschke 39 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 10Pregame prior+18.3Home team on offense−1.4Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 10:20: Graham Nicholson 23 yd FG GOOD — M-OH win probability +22.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q3 7:15: Sean Tyler 20 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick) — WMU win probability +24.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 4:24: Palmer Domschke 37 Yd Field Goal — WMU win probability +12.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:44: Brett Gabbert 9 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick) — M-OH win probability +26.6 pts (now 43%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:11: Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 1 yd to the WMich 42 — WMU win probability +15.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 6 of 11WMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 11
  1. Q1 13:35WMU 4th & 10 at WMU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:20M-OH 4th & 5 at WMU 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    67.7%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:55WMU 4th & 1 at M-OH 22, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.2%−0.6
    72% to make
    Punt
    31.4%−2.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:32M-OH 4th & 12 at M-OH 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−0.6
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:14WMU 4th & 12 at M-OH 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:03M-OH 4th & 14 at WMU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:22WMU 4th & 9 at WMU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:53M-OH 4th & 5 at M-OH 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:50WMU 4th & 3 at M-OH 34, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.6%−1.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    36.6%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:46M-OH 4th & 8 at midfield, down 3
    Close callPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:38WMU 4th & 15 at WMU 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−3.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:25M-OH 4th & 4 at WMU 46, down 3
    Close callPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    55.7%−3.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:24WMU 4th & 8 at M-OH 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−1.5
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    57.4%−10.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:28M-OH 4th & 5 at WMU 20, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    25.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−5.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:36WMU 4th & 4 at M-OH 34, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.0%−1.9
    47% to make
    Punt
    80.7%−3.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:44M-OH 4th & 8 at WMU 9, down 13
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.0 ptsWent for it · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.5%−2.0
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    21.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    13.9%−7.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:52WMU 4th & 9 at WMU 26, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−2.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:07M-OH 4th & 20 at WMU 46, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−3.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    26.0%−1.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:18WMU 4th & 2 at WMU 17, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%−1.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:24M-OH 4th & 17 at M-OH 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:49WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 45, up 6
    Close callPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%−0.7
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:03M-OH 4th & 10 at WMU 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.0%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    10.6%−3.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−6.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1WMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 7:15WMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 11:44M-OH Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WMUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 13:35
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.2%
Nick Mihalic punt for 42 yds , Jalen Walker returns for 3 yds to the MiaOh 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2FG
1 play · 58 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 10:20
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+23
71.3%
Graham Nicholson 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3MISSED FG
1 play · 53 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 3:55
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+39
68.8%
Palmer Domschke 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4PUNT
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 2:32
4TH & 12
OWN 20
0
67.5%
Dom Dzioban punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5PUNT
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 1:14
4TH & 12
OPP 47
0
68.4%
punt for 2 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6PUNT
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:5771% → 69%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-4
70.8%
Keyon Mozee run for a loss of 4 yards to the WMich 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 47
0
69.5%
pass incomplete to Mac HippenhammerSimilar
Q2 14:03
4TH & 14
OPP 47
+1
68.6%
Dom Dzioban punt for 33 yds , Anthony Sambucci returns for 1 yd to the WMich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 11:2231% → 36%
Q2 11:22
4TH & 9
OWN 28
+11
68.8%
Nick Mihalic punt for 39 yds , Jalen Walker returns for 11 yds to the MiaOh 44Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
62.9%
Mareyohn Hrabowski run for 1 yd to the WMich 16Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+6
63.2%
Treyson Bourguet pass complete to Jehlani Galloway for 6 yds to the WMich 22Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+5
63.6%
Sean Tyler run for 5 yds to the WMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
62.7%
pass incomplete to Jehlani GallowaySimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
63.7%
pass incomplete to Anthony SambucciSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 8:5369% → 66%
Q2 8:53
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
68.5%
Dom Dzioban punt for 31 ydsSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
68.2%
Keyon Mozee run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 46Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+4
68.3%
Tyre Shelton run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
50
-5
68.1%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (Mac Hippenhammer) to the MiaOh 45Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+4
66.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 4 yds to the MiaOh 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9FG
12 plays · 46 yds · 3:5039% → 45%
Q2 3:50
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+52
60.9%
Palmer Domschke 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
58.2%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 6 yds to the WMich 26Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+6
57.6%
Treyson Bourguet pass complete to Corey Crooms for 6 yds to the WMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
57.6%
Treyson Bourguet pass incomplete to Corey Crooms, broken up by Caiden WoullardSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
58.1%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 4 yds to the WMich 36Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+9
58.1%
Treyson Bourguet pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 9 yds to the WMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
56.0%
Treyson Bourguet pass incomplete to Corey Crooms, broken up by Nolan JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-1
56.5%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 44Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+15
57.8%
MIAMI OH Penalty, personal foul (Caiden Woullard) to the MiaOh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
55.0%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
54.8%
pass incomplete to Corey CroomsSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+4
55.3%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:5964% → 64%
Q2 1:59
3RD & 5
OPP 47
-3
63.5%
Tyre Shelton run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 8
50
0
60.3%
Dom Dzioban punt for 23 ydsSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
59.8%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Miles Marshall for 23 yds to the MiaOh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
62.8%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 5 yds to the WMich 47Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
63.5%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 1:4340% → 46%
Q2 1:43
2ND & 18
OWN 19
+2
59.8%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 2 yds to the WMich 21Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 16
OWN 21
+1
60.7%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 1 yd to the WMich 22Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 15
OWN 22
0
61.0%
Nick Mihalic punt for a 1ST down , Jalen Walker returns for no gain to the WMich 22 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, roughing kicker (Camden Rogers) to the WMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
57.7%
Treyson Bourguet pass complete to Anthony Sambucci for 9 yds to the WMich 46Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+8
55.7%
Treyson Bourguet pass complete to Jehlani Galloway for 8 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
55.4%
pass incomplete to Corey CroomsSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+9
55.7%
Treyson Bourguet run for 9 yds to the MiaOh 37Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+8
54.8%
Treyson Bourguet pass complete to Jehlani Galloway for 8 yds to the MiaOh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-8
58.1%
Treyson Bourguet sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the WMich 19Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+46
53.7%
Palmer Domschke 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12PUNT
1 play · 29 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q3 12:25
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
59.4%
Dom Dzioban punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q3 7:15
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+20
35.4%
Sean Tyler 20 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14FG
1 play · 12 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q3 4:24
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+37
23.1%
Palmer Domschke 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15DOWNS
2 plays · 42 yds · 1:2827% → 24%
Q3 1:28
4TH & 5
OPP 20
-13
26.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 2 yds to the WMich 18 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, personal foul (Caleb Shaffer) to the WMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
24.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Mac Hippenhammer for 5 yds to the MiaOh 30 for a 1ST down WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (Keni-H Lovely) to the MiaOh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16MISSED FG
3 plays · 33 yds · 1:2485% → 83%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+1
15.2%
Mareyohn Hrabowski run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+1
15.6%
Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+51
16.8%
Palmer Domschke 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17TD
1 play · 66 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q4 11:44
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+9
43.3%
Brett Gabbert 9 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18PUNT
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q4 10:52
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
34.7%
Nick Mihalic punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19PUNT
1 play · 22 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q4 7:07
4TH & 20
OPP 46
0
31.3%
Dom Dzioban punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20PUNT
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q4 5:18
4TH & 2
OWN 17
0
23.7%
Nick Mihalic punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21PUNT
1 play · -7 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q4 4:24
4TH & 17
OWN 49
0
25.9%
Dom Dzioban punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 22PUNT
3 plays · 36 yds · 0:2290% → 90%
Q4 2:11
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+1
10.4%
Zahir Abdus-Salaam run for 1 yd to the WMich 42Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+3
11.0%
Treyson Bourguet run for 3 yds to the WMich 45Similar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
10.5%
Nick Mihalic punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 23Uncategorized
11 plays · 65 yds · 1:4620% → 27%
Q4 1:49
2ND & 18
OWN 1
+15
20.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Miles Marshall for 15 yds to the MiaOh 16Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+11
20.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Miles Marshall for 11 yds to the MiaOh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
22.4%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (Ben Jackson) to the MiaOh 22Similar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+15
21.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Miles Marshall for 15 yds to the MiaOh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
23.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Miles Marshall for 11 yds to the MiaOh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
26.6%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jack Coldiron, broken up by Zaire BarnesSimilar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
31.9%
pass incomplete to Mac HippenhammerSimilar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
26.7%
pass incomplete to Mac HippenhammerSimilar
Q4 0:03
4TH & 10
OPP 34
0
17.8%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jalen Walker, broken up by Andre CarterSimilar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+18
20.3%
Brett Gabbert run for 18 yds to the WMich 34 Brett Gabbert fumbled, recovered by MiaOh Ben Jackson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
27.1%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Miles Marshall, broken up by Zaire BarnesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-27.1
TD · Q4 11:44
Brett Gabbert 9 Yd Run (Graham Nicholson Kick)
+26.6
TD · Q3 7:15
Sean Tyler 20 Yd Run (Palmer Domschke Kick)
-24
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com