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TOL

Toledo 27 at Buffalo 34

BUF
2022 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2022 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:46 · C.Snyder steps back to pass. C.Snyder pass incomplete intended for Q.Williams.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 86Home team on offense−9.9Pregame prior−9.7Score differential−4.2Garbage-time factor−3.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:21: D.Finn rushed to BUF End Zone for 17 yards. D.Finn for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — TOL win probability +5.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:24: D.Finn rushed to BUF End Zone for 3 yards. D.Finn for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — TOL win probability +11.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:14: C.Snyder rushed to TOL End Zone for 5 yards. C.Snyder for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — BUF win probability +13.7 pts (now 24%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:35: C.Snyder pass complete to TOL 32. Catch made by J.Gassett at TOL 32. Gain of 32 yards. J.Gassett for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — BUF win probability +29.4 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 8:24: R.Cook rushed to TOL End Zone for 30 yards. R.Cook for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. — BUF win probability +28.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 7TOL made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 12:03TOL 4th & 11 at TOL 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:12BUF 4th & 6 at TOL 38, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.8%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    36.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:02TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.9%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:40TOL 4th & 2 at BUF 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    62.0%−0.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    62.1%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:32BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:50TOL 4th & 11 at BUF 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    63.3%−3.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:21BUF 4th & 16 at BUF 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:36TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:47TOL 4th & 5 at BUF 5, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−3.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:46BUF 4th & 3 at TOL 33, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    26.1%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    25.1%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:31BUF 4th & 2 at TOL 22, down 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.0%−0.6
    72% to make
    Punt
    19.8%−4.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:54TOL 4th & 5 at BUF 37, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    74.2%−0.9
    40% to make
    Punt
    74.0%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:02BUF 4th & 4 at TOL 43, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    12.4%−2.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    13.3%−1.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:45TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 43, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.6%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:45TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.6%−4.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:52BUF 4th & 8 at TOL 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−1.8
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    83.2%−8.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:16TOL 4th & 1 at BUF 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    8.0%−6.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    7.0%−7.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TOL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 2:44TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 6:24TOL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:14BUF Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:35BUF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.6%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:24BUF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:5568% → 67%
Q1 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.9%
PENALTY on TOL-TOL, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q1 14:58
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
31.9%
J.Stuart rushed to TOL 24 for 4 yards. Tackled by BUF at TOL 24.Similar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
32.1%
D.Finn rushed to TOL 26 for 2 yards. Tackled by BUF at TOL 26.Similar
Q1 14:01
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+12
32.4%
D.Finn rushed to TOL 38 for 12 yards. Tackled by BUF at TOL 38.Similar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
32.4%
D.Finn rushed to TOL 40 for 2 yards. Tackled by BUF at TOL 40.Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 40
-1
32.7%
J.Stuart rushed to TOL 39 for -1 yards. Tackled by BUF at TOL 39.Similar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 11
OWN 39
0
33.1%
D.Finn steps back to pass. D.Finn pass incomplete intended for J.Newton.Similar
Q1 12:03
4TH & 11
OWN 39
+41
33.4%
J.Batzke punts 41 yards to BUF 20, Center-TOL. Fair catch by Q.Williams.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2MISSED FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 4:5133% → 35%
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
33.2%
C.Snyder pass complete to BUF 20. Catch made by J.Gassett at BUF 20. Gain of 8 yards. Tackled by TOL at BUF 28.Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+8
33.6%
R.Cook rushed to BUF 36 for 8 yards. Tackled by TOL at BUF 36.Similar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
33.7%
C.Snyder pass complete to BUF 36. Catch made by J.Gassett at BUF 36. Gain of 6 yards. Tackled by TOL at BUF 42.Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+5
34.2%
R.Cook rushed to BUF 47 for 5 yards. Tackled by TOL at BUF 47.Similar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
34.5%
R.Cook rushed to BUF 49 for 2 yards. Tackled by TOL at BUF 49.Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+7
34.8%
C.Snyder pass complete to BUF 49. Catch made by R.Mangas at BUF 49. Gain of 7 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 44.Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
35.0%
R.Cook rushed to TOL 42 for 2 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 42.Similar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
35.3%
R.Cook rushed to TOL 39 for 3 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 39.Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+1
35.5%
R.Cook rushed to TOL 38 for 1 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 38.Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 6
OPP 38
0
35.7%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. C.Snyder pass incomplete intended for J.Marshall.Similar
Q1 7:12
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
35.4%
A.McNulty 57 yard field goal attempt is no good, Center-BUF, Holder-BUF.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1065% → 65%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
34.7%
D.Finn pass complete to TOL 38. Catch made by J.Newton at TOL 38. Gain of 8 yards. Tackled by BUF at TOL 46.Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
34.5%
D.Finn steps back to pass. D.Finn pass incomplete intended for TOL.Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+1
34.7%
D.Finn rushed to TOL 47 for 1 yards. Tackled by BUF at TOL 47.Similar
Q1 6:02
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
35.3%
D.Finn steps back to pass. D.Finn pass incomplete intended for P.Boone.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4TD
6 plays · 47 yds · 2:1465% → 69%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
35.1%
P.Boone rushed to BUF 46 for 1 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 46.Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+1
35.2%
D.Finn pass complete to BUF 46. Catch made by J.Newton at BUF 46. Gain of 1 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 45.Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+6
35.5%
D.Finn rushed to BUF 39 for 6 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 39.Similar
Q1 3:40
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+9
36.1%
D.Finn pass complete to BUF 39. Catch made by P.Boone at BUF 39. Gain of 9 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 30.Similar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
35.3%
P.Boone rushed to BUF 26 for 4 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 26.Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+26
31.2%
D.Finn pass complete to BUF 26. Catch made by J.Turner at BUF 26. Gain of 26 yards. J.Turner for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3833% → 32%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
32.6%
C.Snyder pass complete to BUF 26. Catch made by Q.Williams at BUF 26. Gain of 4 yards. Tackled by TOL at BUF 30.Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 6
OWN 30
-1
32.7%
M.Washington rushed to BUF 29 for -1 yards. Tackled by TOL at BUF 29.Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
32.3%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. C.Snyder pass incomplete intended for M.Johnson.Similar
Q1 0:32
4TH & 7
OWN 29
+49
31.8%
A.Venneri punts 49 yards to TOL 22, Center-BUF. A.Beale returned punt from the TOL 22. Tackled by BUF at BUF 49.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6FG
12 plays · 28 yds · 3:4269% → 69%
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
31.0%
P.Boone rushed to BUF 45 for 4 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 45.Similar
Q1 0:09
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+2
31.0%
D.Finn pass complete to BUF 45. Catch made by P.Boone at BUF 45. Gain of 2 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 43.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+11
31.2%
J.Stuart rushed to BUF 32 for 11 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 32.Similar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
30.8%
D.Finn rushed to BUF 28 for 4 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 28.Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+4
30.7%
J.Stuart rushed to BUF 24 for 4 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 24.Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+4
31.0%
J.Stuart rushed to BUF 20 for 4 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 20.Similar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
30.7%
PENALTY on TOL-TOL, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 15
OPP 25
0
30.8%
D.Finn steps back to pass. D.Finn pass incomplete intended for J.Newton.Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 15
OPP 25
+3
31.0%
D.Finn rushed to BUF 22 for 3 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 22.Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 12
OPP 22
+1
31.1%
D.Finn pass complete to BUF 22. Catch made by D.Maddox at BUF 22. Gain of 1 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 21.Similar
Q2 11:50
4TH & 11
OPP 21
+39
31.2%
T.Cluckey 39 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-TOL, Holder-TOL.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7FUMBLE
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
34.4%
D.Maddox rushed to BUF 28 for 7 yards. J.Stuart FUMBLES, forced by K.Cobb. Fumble RECOVERED by BUF-J.Muse at BUF 28. J.Muse for yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:1564% → 71%
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
36.4%
D.Finn pass complete to TOL 25. Catch made by M.Barkley at TOL 25. Gain of 9 yards. Tackled by BUF at TOL 34.Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
35.7%
J.Stuart rushed to TOL 38 for 4 yards. Tackled by BUF at TOL 38.Similar
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
35.4%
J.Stuart rushed to TOL 44 for 6 yards. Tackled by BUF at TOL 44.Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+12
35.1%
J.Stuart rushed to BUF 44 for 12 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 44.Similar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
34.8%
D.Finn steps back to pass. D.Finn pass incomplete intended for M.Barkley.Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+23
34.9%
D.Finn pass complete to BUF 44. Catch made by T.Zsiros at BUF 44. Gain of 23 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 21.Similar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
34.2%
P.Boone rushed to BUF 17 for 4 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 17.Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+17
29.2%
D.Finn rushed to BUF End Zone for 17 yards. D.Finn for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:5629% → 28%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
29.4%
C.Snyder pass complete to BUF 25. Catch made by J.Gassett at BUF 25. Gain of 23 yards. Tackled by TOL at BUF 48.Similar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
30.2%
A.Henderson rushed to BUF 49 for 1 yards. Tackled by TOL at BUF 49.Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 9
OWN 49
-7
29.9%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. C.Snyder sacked at BUF 42 for -7 yards (J.Hines)Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 16
OWN 42
0
28.3%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. C.Snyder pass incomplete intended for J.Marshall.Similar
Q2 6:21
4TH & 16
OWN 42
+12
27.6%
A.Venneri punts 12 yards to TOL 46, Center-BUF. Out of bounds.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10FG
15 plays · 34 yds · 4:3472% → 77%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
27.6%
D.Finn steps back to pass. D.Finn pass incomplete intended for TOL.Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-1
27.6%
D.Finn pass complete to TOL 46. Catch made by D.Maddox at TOL 46. Gain of -1 yards. Tackled by BUF at TOL 45.Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
28.0%
D.Finn steps back to pass. D.Finn pass incomplete intended for D.Maddox.Similar
Q2 5:36
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
29.1%
J.Batzke punts yards to BUF 1, Center-TOL. Downed by TOL. PENALTY on BUF-BUF, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
27.4%
PENALTY on TOL-D.Beckenhaupt, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+3
27.6%
J.Stuart rushed to BUF 42 for 3 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 42.Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+9
27.3%
D.Finn pass complete to BUF 42. Catch made by P.Boone at BUF 42. Gain of 9 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 33.Similar
Q2 4:13
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+12
27.5%
D.Finn pass complete to BUF 33. Catch made by J.Newton at BUF 33. Gain of 12 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 21.Similar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
26.8%
P.Boone rushed to BUF 20 for 1 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 20.Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+13
26.5%
D.Finn pass complete to BUF 20. Catch made by T.Zsiros at BUF 20. Gain of 13 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 7.Similar
Q2 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
26.4%
J.Stuart rushed to BUF 8 for -1 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 8.Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
26.3%
D.Finn pass complete to BUF 8. Catch made by J.Turner at BUF 8. Gain of 3 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 5.Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
26.1%
D.Finn steps back to pass. D.Finn pass incomplete intended for J.Turner.Similar
Q2 1:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
22.9%
T.Cluckey 23 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-TOL, Holder-TOL.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11DOWNS
11 plays · 48 yds · 0:4825% → 26%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
24.7%
C.Snyder pass complete to BUF 19. Catch made by J.Marshall at BUF 19. Gain of 9 yards. Tackled by TOL at BUF 28.Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+7
25.4%
C.Snyder pass complete to BUF 28. Catch made by R.Embry at BUF 28. Gain of 7 yards. Tackled by TOL at BUF 35.Similar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
25.0%
C.Snyder pass complete to BUF 35. Catch made by J.Marshall at BUF 35. Gain of 8 yards. Tackled by TOL at BUF 43.Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
25.8%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. C.Snyder pass incomplete intended for Q.Williams.Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+17
25.4%
M.Washington rushed to TOL 40 for 17 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 40.Similar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
26.4%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. C.Snyder pass incomplete intended for M.Washington.Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
26.3%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. C.Snyder pass incomplete intended for BUF.Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+7
25.5%
C.Snyder pass complete to TOL 40. Catch made by T.Borland at TOL 40. Gain of 7 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 33.Similar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 3
OPP 33
0
25.5%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. C.Snyder pass incomplete intended for Q.Williams.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12INT
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:4177% → 80%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
22.9%
J.Stuart rushed to TOL 43 for 10 yards. Tackled by BUF at TOL 43.Similar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
21.6%
D.Finn rushed to TOL 49 for 6 yards. Tackled by BUF at TOL 49.Similar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+7
20.4%
D.Finn pass complete to TOL 49. Catch made by J.Turner at TOL 49. Gain of 7 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 44.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
19.9%
D.Finn pass INTERCEPTED at BUF 7. Intercepted by M.Fuqua at BUF 7. Tackled by TOL at BUF 7.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13FG
7 plays · 63 yds · 3:2324% → 26%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
24.2%
C.Snyder pass complete to BUF 15. Catch made by Q.Williams at BUF 15. Gain of 6 yards. Tackled by TOL at BUF 21.Similar
Q3 14:34
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+49
24.5%
R.Cook rushed to TOL 30 for 49 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 30.Similar
Q3 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
27.1%
M.Washington rushed to TOL 28 for yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 28. PENALTY on BUF-BUF, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+4
26.4%
M.Washington rushed to TOL 31 for 4 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 31.Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+9
26.7%
C.Snyder pass complete to TOL 31. Catch made by B.Curry at TOL 31. Gain of 9 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 22.Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 2
OPP 22
0
25.0%
M.Washington rushed to TOL 22 for 0 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 22.Similar
Q3 11:31
4TH & 2
OPP 22
0
26.3%
A.McNulty 40 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-BUF, Holder-BUF.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · 52 yds · 0:2174% → 75%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
25.6%
J.Stuart rushed to TOL 29 for 4 yards. Tackled by BUF at TOL 29.Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+48
25.2%
J.Stuart rushed to BUF 23 for 48 yards. J.Stuart FUMBLES, forced by I.King. Fumble RECOVERED by BUF-I.King at BUF 23. Tackled by TOL at BUF 23.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15TD
8 plays · 42 yds · 2:2376% → 89%
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
23.9%
M.Kelly rushed to BUF 36 for 6 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 36.Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 4
OPP 36
-1
23.6%
M.Kelly rushed to BUF 37 for -1 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 37.Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
24.1%
D.Finn steps back to pass. D.Finn pass incomplete intended for TOL.Similar
Q3 7:54
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+12
24.9%
D.Finn pass complete to BUF 37. Catch made by M.Barkley at BUF 37. Gain of 12 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 25.Similar
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
23.2%
D.Finn rushed to BUF 22 for 3 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 22.Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+8
22.5%
M.Kelly rushed to BUF 14 for 8 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 14.Similar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
22.4%
D.Finn rushed to BUF 3 for 11 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 3.Similar
Q3 6:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
11.0%
D.Finn rushed to BUF End Zone for 3 yards. D.Finn for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 30 yds · 4:0114% → 14%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
14.1%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. C.Snyder pass incomplete intended for J.Marshall.Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+5
13.8%
M.Washington rushed to BUF 32 for 5 yards. Tackled by TOL at BUF 32.Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+6
13.8%
C.Snyder rushed to BUF 38 for 6 yards. Tackled by TOL at BUF 38.Similar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
14.6%
M.Washington rushed to BUF 39 for 1 yards. Tackled by TOL at BUF 39.Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+12
14.0%
C.Snyder pass complete to BUF 39. Catch made by B.Curry at BUF 39. Gain of 12 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 49.Similar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
14.8%
R.Cook rushed to TOL 44 for 5 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 44.Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+2
15.0%
M.Washington rushed to TOL 42 for 2 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 42.Similar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 3
OPP 42
-1
14.6%
M.Washington rushed to TOL 43 for -1 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 43.Similar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
13.7%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. C.Snyder pass incomplete intended for Q.Williams.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1792% → 91%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
8.3%
M.Kelly rushed to TOL 38 for -5 yards. Tackled by BUF at TOL 38.Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 16
OWN 37
0
8.5%
D.Finn steps back to pass. D.Finn pass incomplete intended for M.Kelly.Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 15
OWN 38
+5
8.4%
D.Finn rushed to TOL 43 for 5 yards. Tackled by BUF at TOL 43.Similar
Q3 0:45
4TH & 10
OWN 43
+21
8.8%
J.Batzke punts 21 yards to BUF 36, Center-TOL. Downed by TOL.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 2:2011% → 24%
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+23
11.3%
C.Snyder pass complete to BUF 36. Catch made by R.Mangas at BUF 36. Gain of 23 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 41.Similar
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
12.3%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. C.Snyder pass incomplete intended for BUF.Similar
Q3 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
12.1%
C.Snyder pass complete to TOL 41. Catch made by Q.Williams at TOL 41. Gain of 5 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 36.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+10
12.4%
C.Snyder pass complete to TOL 36. Catch made by Q.Williams at TOL 36. Gain of 10 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 26.Similar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
13.2%
R.Cook rushed to TOL 20 for 6 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 20.Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+12
11.7%
C.Snyder pass complete to TOL 20. Catch made by Q.Williams at TOL 20. Gain of 12 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 8.Similar
Q4 13:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
10.7%
C.Snyder pass complete to TOL 8. Catch made by R.Cook at TOL 8. Gain of 3 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 5.Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
24.4%
C.Snyder rushed to TOL End Zone for 5 yards. C.Snyder for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:0118% → 46%
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
17.8%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. C.Snyder pass incomplete intended for BUF.Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+13
17.6%
C.Snyder pass complete to BUF 20. Catch made by R.Cook at BUF 20. Gain of 13 yards. Tackled by TOL at BUF 33.Similar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
18.4%
M.Washington rushed to BUF 39 for 6 yards. Tackled by TOL at BUF 39.Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+5
19.1%
R.Cook rushed to BUF 44 for 5 yards. Tackled by TOL at BUF 44.Similar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+24
16.8%
C.Snyder pass complete to BUF 44. Catch made by R.Cook at BUF 44. Gain of 24 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 32.Similar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
46.2%
C.Snyder pass complete to TOL 32. Catch made by J.Gassett at TOL 32. Gain of 32 yards. J.Gassett for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0567% → 67%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.6%
D.Finn steps back to pass. D.Finn pass incomplete intended for T.Zsiros.Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
32.9%
D.Finn pass INTERCEPTED at TOL 43. Intercepted by M.Fuqua at TOL 43. Tackled by TOL at TOL 43.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21TD
4 plays · 43 yds · 1:0244% → 75%
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
44.1%
C.Snyder pass complete to TOL 43. Catch made by C.Harrity at TOL 43. Gain of 8 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 35.Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+5
46.4%
R.Cook rushed to TOL 30 for 5 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 30.Similar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
46.5%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. C.Snyder pass incomplete intended for J.Marshall.Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
75.0%
R.Cook rushed to TOL End Zone for 30 yards. R.Cook for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:1034% → 34%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
66.2%
D.Finn pass complete to TOL 16. Catch made by M.Kelly at TOL 16. Gain of 7 yards. Tackled by BUF at TOL 23.Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 3
OWN 23
0
65.0%
M.Kelly rushed to TOL 23 for 0 yards. Tackled by BUF at TOL 23.Similar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+16
67.6%
D.Finn pass complete to TOL 23. Catch made by D.Maddox at TOL 23. Gain of 16 yards. Tackled by BUF at TOL 39.Similar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
63.8%
PENALTY on TOL-G.Schwiebert, False Start, 5 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+12
66.7%
D.Finn pass complete to TOL 34. Catch made by J.Newton at TOL 34. Gain of 12 yards. Tackled by BUF at TOL 46.Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
61.9%
D.Finn steps back to pass. D.Finn pass incomplete intended for M.Barkley.Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
62.5%
D.Finn steps back to pass. D.Finn pass incomplete intended for M.Barkley.Similar
Q4 5:45
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
66.1%
D.Finn steps back to pass. D.Finn pass incomplete intended for D.Maddox.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23FUMBLE
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:5082% → 85%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
82.2%
M.Washington rushed to TOL 43 for 3 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 43.Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
85.4%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. C.Snyder pass incomplete intended for R.Cook.Similar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
84.7%
C.Snyder steps back to pass. C.Snyder FUMBLES, forced by J.Hines. C.Snyder sacked at TOL 43 for 0 yards (J.Hines) Fumble RECOVERED by TOL-D.Johnson at TOL 43.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24INT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4734% → 29%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
66.5%
D.Finn pass complete to TOL 43. Catch made by M.Barkley at TOL 43. Gain of 18 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 39.Similar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
66.1%
D.Finn steps back to pass. D.Finn pass incomplete intended for D.Blankumsee.Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
66.3%
D.Finn rushed to BUF 10 for yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 10. PENALTY on TOL-D.Rogers, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, accepted. No Play.Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 20
OPP 49
0
70.7%
D.Finn pass INTERCEPTED at BUF 40. Intercepted by M.Fuqua at BUF 40. Tackled by TOL at TOL 39.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25FG
11 plays · 15 yds · 2:2288% → 95%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
87.5%
R.Cook rushed to TOL 39 for 0 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 39.Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
87.6%
R.Cook rushed to TOL 34 for 5 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 34.Similar
Q4 2:09
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+8
88.6%
C.Snyder rushed to TOL 26 for 8 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 26.Similar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
89.6%
R.Cook rushed to TOL 27 for -1 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 27.Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+2
91.8%
R.Cook rushed to TOL 25 for 2 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 25.Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+1
91.0%
C.Snyder rushed to TOL 24 for 1 yards. Tackled by TOL at TOL 24.Similar
Q4 0:52
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+42
94.8%
A.McNulty 42 yard field goal attempt is good, Center-BUF, Holder-BUF.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26INT
9 plays · 53 yds · 0:4311% → 17%
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
89.2%
D.Finn pass complete to TOL 25. Catch made by D.Maddox at TOL 25. Gain of 18 yards. Tackled by BUF at TOL 43.Similar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
87.1%
D.Finn pass complete to TOL 43. Catch made by J.Newton at TOL 43. Gain of 12 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 45.Similar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
85.4%
D.Finn steps back to pass. D.Finn pass incomplete intended for J.Newton.Similar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
85.8%
D.Finn steps back to pass. D.Finn pass incomplete intended for J.Stuart.Similar
Q4 0:23
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+9
87.1%
D.Finn pass complete to BUF 45. Catch made by J.Newton at BUF 45. Gain of 9 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 36.Similar
Q4 0:16
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+6
85.8%
D.Finn pass complete to BUF 36. Catch made by L.Kuhl at BUF 36. Gain of 6 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 30.Similar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+8
81.6%
D.Finn pass complete to BUF 30. Catch made by J.Stuart at BUF 30. Gain of 8 yards. Tackled by BUF at BUF 22.Similar
Q4 0:04
3RD & 2
OPP 22
0
83.1%
D.Finn pass INTERCEPTED at BUF 2. Intercepted by C.Offord at BUF 2. Tackled by TOL at BUF 10.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:35
C.Snyder pass complete to TOL 32. Catch made by J.Gassett at TOL 32. Gain of 32 yards. J.Gassett for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+29.4
TD · Q4 8:24
R.Cook rushed to TOL End Zone for 30 yards. R.Cook for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
+28.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+16.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com