2022 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2022 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:22 · Collin Schlee pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:56: Collin Schlee run for 10 yds for a TD, (Andrew Glass KICK) — KENT win probability +10.4 pts (now 56%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:21: Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 36 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +6.9 pts (now 58%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:52: Dequan Finn pass complete to Mikel Barkley for 39 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +12.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:38: Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 7 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +18.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:11: Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 41 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +7.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5KENT made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 11:35TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 33, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snapGo for it68.7%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call68.7%average punt
- Q1 6:14KENT 4th & 3 at KENT 32, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snapGo for it37.8%−0.252% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.0%average punt
- Q1 3:30TOL 4th & 19 at TOL 22, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snapGo for it58.5%−1.910% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.3%average punt
- Q2 9:23KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 32, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snapGo for it49.2%−2.529% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.6%average punt
- Q2 5:56KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 31, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snapGo for it43.3%−2.029% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.3%average punt
- Q2 5:56TOL 4th & 1 at KENT 43, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call56.3%70% to convertField goal53.2%−3.128% to makePunt53.7%−2.5average punt
- Q2 0:00KENT 4th & 3 at TOL 3, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 40.5% before the snapGo for it42.3%44% to convertField goalTheir call40.0%−2.393% to makePunt32.1%−10.2average punt
- Q3 13:12TOL 4th & 6 at TOL 46, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snapGo for it57.0%−0.440% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.4%average punt
- Q3 11:16KENT 4th & 14 at KENT 16, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snapGo for it38.9%−3.717% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.6%average punt
- Q3 8:43TOL 4th & 5 at KENT 25, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 57.2% before the snapGo for it57.3%41% to convertField goalTheir call57.1%−0.166% to makePunt48.2%−9.1average punt
- Q3 5:25KENT 4th & 3 at TOL 18, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 42.6% before the snapGo for it42.9%51% to convertField goalTheir call42.0%−0.979% to makePunt31.3%−11.7average punt
- Q4 12:05KENT 4th & 11 at KENT 29, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snapGo for it7.1%−0.625% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.7%average punt
- Q4 4:22KENT 4th & 21 at TOL 26, down 21Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.6%−0.58% to convertField goal1.1%64% to makePunt0.5%−0.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7KENT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 12:56KENT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call30.4%97% to makeGo for two30.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:56KENT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call33.0%97% to makeGo for two33.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:40KENT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.4%97% to makeGo for two35.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:18TOL Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.7%97% to makeGo for two63.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:56KENT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.2%97% to makeGo for two51.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:34TOL Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.9%97% to makeGo for two52.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:21TOL Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call53.4%97% to makeGo for two53.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:52TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call62.4%97% to makeGo for two62.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:38TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.2%97% to makeGo for two75.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 13:11TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.3%97% to makeGo for two92.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:39TOL Touchdown, up 20 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.2%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENTDrive 1TD6 plays · 53 yds · 1:5130% → 31%
TOLDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1969% → 68%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 3TD6 plays · 76 yds · 1:3932% → 35%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+38
68.1%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 38 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
67.8%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Devontez Walker for 9 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+5
67.8%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Kris Leach for 5 yds to the Toled 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4FUMBLE1 play · 4 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
65.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 4 yds Jerjuan Newton fumbled, recovered by KntSt Montre MillerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 5TD1 play · 19 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6TD6 plays · 43 yds · 2:1466% → 64%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
65.9%
FINN, Dequan pass up the middle incomplete intended for KUHL, Lenny thrown to the KSU0. PENALTY KSU Pass Interference on BOLDEN, Nico enforced 15 yards to the KSU17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0437% → 38%
Q1 6:14
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
61.9%
Josh Smith punt for 48 yds , Adam Beale returns for no gain to the Toled 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 2 yds · 2:4463% → 59%
Q1 6:14
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+8
62.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 8 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+1
63.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 1 yd to the Toled 38Similar
Q1 3:30
4TH & 19
OWN 22
0
58.9%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Raymond James at the KntSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 9TD7 plays · 58 yds · 3:3442% → 56%
TOLDrive 10TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2247% → 55%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
55.4%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 27 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 11PUNT9 plays · 17 yds · 3:0548% → 51%
Q2 12:28
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
51.9%
SCHLEE, Collin pass to the right complete for 61 yards to CEPHAS, Dante caught at the TOL24 and advanced to the TOL7 (TURNER, Nick;BAUER, Nate). PENALTY KSU Personal Foul on CEPHAS, Dante declined KSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on MARSHALL, Marcellus enforced 5 yards from the KSU32 to the KSU27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
48.6%
BOONE, Peny rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the TOL19 (EVANS, JoJo;WEST, CJ). PENALTY KSU Personal Foul on WEST, Zayin enforced 15 yards from the KSU00 to the TOL15 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12TD7 plays · 85 yds · 3:0249% → 58%
KENTDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2147% → 45%
TOLDrive 14TD5 plays · 52 yds · 2:0457% → 68%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
68.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Mikel Barkley for 39 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 15FG15 plays · 62 yds · 3:4838% → 45%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 18 yds · 1:4759% → 57%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+14
58.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Mikel Barkley for 14 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:5644% → 42%
TOLDrive 18FG7 plays · 20 yds · 2:3360% → 65%
KENTDrive 19MISSED FG11 plays · 57 yds · 3:1840% → 43%
Q3 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
58.5%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Devontez Walker for 9 yds to the KntSt 49Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
56.9%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Devontez Walker for 2 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+10
57.9%
SCHLEE, Collin pass to the right incomplete intended for CEPHAS, Dante thrown to the TOL15. PENALTY TOL Holding on MITCHELL, Quinyon enforced 10 yards from the KSU49 to the TOL41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20TD11 plays · 80 yds · 4:4762% → 86%
Q3 5:25
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+16
66.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 16 yds to the KntSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
66.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Thomas Zsiros for 9 yds to the KntSt 28Similar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
85.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 7 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 21INT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3222% → 15%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22TD3 plays · 70 yds · 1:1785% → 94%
KENTDrive 23PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:029% → 8%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24TD8 plays · 48 yds · 4:2695% → 99%
KENTDrive 25DOWNS12 plays · 43 yds · 3:111% → 1%
Q4 7:33
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+12
99.0%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Devontez Walker for 12 yds to the KntSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
98.9%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Dante Cephas for 19 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
98.9%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Dante Cephas for 9 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+6
98.7%
Collin Schlee pass complete to Dante Cephas for 6 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26Uncategorized6 plays · 13 yds · 4:2299% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:38
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 7 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
+18.1
TD · Q2 3:52
Dequan Finn pass complete to Mikel Barkley for 39 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
+12.2
TD · Q2 14:56
Collin Schlee run for 10 yds for a TD, (Andrew Glass KICK)
-10.4