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BUF

Buffalo 38 at Bowling Green 7

BGSU
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
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Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:45 · Anthony Venneri punt for 44 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsRule era
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Home team on offense−51.6Score differential−38.2Garbage-time factor−18.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−7.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−7.7Rule era−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:42: Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +6.1 pts (now 60%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:43: Mike Washington run for 92 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +7.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:45: Al-Jay Henderson run for 7 yds to the BOWLGREEN 47 BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jamari Gassett) to the Buff 40 — BUF win probability +7.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:14: Mike Washington run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +6.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:33: James Patterson 97 Yd Fumble Return (Alex McNulty Kick) — BUF win probability +4.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9BUF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 6:43BUF 4th & 4 at BGSU 8, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.5%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    53.7%−2.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:08BGSU 4th & 13 at BGSU 19, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:53BGSU 4th & 5 at BGSU 18, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:48BGSU 4th & 7 at BUF 7, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.5%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    35.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−3.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00BUF 4th & 3 at BGSU 49, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    66.6%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:45BUF 4th & 1 at BGSU 1, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    68.5%−3.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    60.9%−10.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:27BGSU 4th & 1 at BGSU 34, down 17
    Close callPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:54BUF 4th & 15 at BUF 29, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−2.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:45BGSU 4th & 17 at BGSU 18, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−2.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:34BGSU 4th & 5 at BGSU 31, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:58BUF 4th & 17 at BUF 33, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:20BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 47, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:23BGSU 4th & 19 at BUF 32, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:45BUF 4th & 7 at BGSU 44, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:52BGSU 4th & 5 at BGSU 25, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:10BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 25, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:59BGSU 4th & 11 at BUF 35, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:23BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:42BUF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:43BUF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:14BUF Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:33BUF Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:57BGSU Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3650% → 51%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
50.0%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q1 14:59
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
50.0%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 8 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+33
50.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Quian Williams for 33 yds to the BwGrn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
50.0%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q1 14:59
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+6
50.0%
Mike Washington run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q1 14:59
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+2
50.0%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+18
50.0%
Cole Snyder run for 18 yds to the BwGrn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
48.8%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 2INT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:3149% → 49%
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.4%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Cavon CroomSimilar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
49.3%
Jamal Johnson run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+23
49.2%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 23 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 15
OWN 44
0
49.5%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Levi GazarekSimilar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 15
OWN 44
0
49.4%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Jamal JohnsonSimilar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 15
OWN 44
0
48.9%
Matt McDonald pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3FG
7 plays · 32 yds · 3:0952% → 53%
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
48.4%
Cole Snyder run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+1
48.3%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+20
48.4%
Mike Washington run for 20 yds to the BwGrn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
48.3%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 11Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+5
48.3%
Cole Snyder run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 6Similar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+2
48.4%
Cole Snyder run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 8Similar
Q1 6:43
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+26
47.3%
Alex McNulty 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2948% → 47%
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
47.6%
Jamal Johnson run for no gain to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-3
47.6%
Matt McDonald sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 19Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 13
OWN 19
0
47.2%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to CJ LewisSimilar
Q1 5:08
4TH & 13
OWN 19
+10
46.5%
Sami Sir punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BwGrn 48 , Quian Williams returns for 10 yds to the BwGrn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD
2 plays · 48 yds · 0:2654% → 60%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+47
46.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Jamari Gassett for 47 yds to the BwGrn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.1%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4341% → 40%
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
40.5%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Tyrone BrodenSimilar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+5
40.5%
Jaison Patterson run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 5
OWN 18
0
40.4%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Tyrone BrodenSimilar
Q1 3:53
4TH & 5
OWN 18
0
40.0%
Sami Sir punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BwGrn 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
40.3%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 12
OPP 49
0
40.3%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Robbie MangasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 8FUMBLE
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:0941% → 39%
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
40.5%
Jamal Johnson run for 5 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+35
40.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 35 yds to the Buff 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
41.0%
Jamal Johnson run for 1 yd to the Buff 7Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
41.0%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Tyrone BrodenSimilar
Q1 2:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
40.6%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Levi GazarekSimilar
Q1 0:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+19
38.8%
Mason Lawler run for 9 yds Mason Lawler fumbled, recovered by Buff Keyshawn Cobb BUFFALO Penalty, Illegal Block (Elijah Blades) to the Buff 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9DOWNS
15 plays · 84 yds · 6:0363% → 69%
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
37.5%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 15 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
36.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Cole Harrity for 6 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+8
36.5%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 8 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
36.0%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the Buff 43 Ron Cook Jr. fumbled, recovered by Buff Ron Cook Jr.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+8
36.1%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 8 yds to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 49
0
36.2%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Cole HarritySimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 49
+5
36.8%
Robbie Mangas run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
35.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+15
35.9%
Quian Williams pass complete to Cole Snyder for 15 yds to the BwGrn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
35.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+21
35.9%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 21 yds to the BwGrn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
35.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 1Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
35.9%
Ron Cook Jr. run for no gain to the BwGrn 1Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
36.1%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Trevor BorlandSimilar
Q2 9:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
30.6%
Mike Washington run for no gain to the BwGrn 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 4:1833% → 32%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+11
32.9%
Matt McDonald run for 11 yds to the BwGrn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 16
OWN 6
+5
32.9%
Matt McDonald run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 11Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+4
32.9%
Matt McDonald run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 15Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+10
32.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun McDonald,Matt pass incomplete short middle to Hiliare,Odieu, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UB Pass Interference (Cobb,Keyshawn) 10 yards from BGSU15 to BGSU25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.2%
Jaison Patterson run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.1%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 5 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
32.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun McDonald,Matt pass complete deep left to Keith,Ta'ron for 15 yards to the BGSU45 (Offord,Caleb) PENALTY BGSU Holding offsetting UB Holding offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
32.7%
Matt McDonald run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q2 5:27
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
32.3%
Sami Sir punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Quian Williams at the Buff 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:3365% → 70%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
35.0%
run for 10 yds to the Buff 24 fumbled, recovered by Buff Al-Jay HendersonSimilar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 20
OWN 24
0
35.5%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 20
OWN 24
+5
35.8%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q2 3:54
4TH & 15
OWN 29
+42
29.6%
Anthony Venneri punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 33 , Jhaylin Embry returns for 42 yds to the Buff 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12FUMBLE
1 play · 32 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+32
33.6%
Jaison Patterson run for 32 yds to the Buff 1 Jaison Patterson fumbled, recovered by Buff Marcus FuquaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13TD
4 plays · 99 yds · 1:0071% → 78%
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
29.5%
Cole Snyder run for 2 yds to the Buff 3Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+5
29.6%
Mike Washington run for 5 yds to the Buff 8Similar
Q2 2:43
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+92
22.3%
Mike Washington run for 92 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:5822% → 21%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
22.2%
Matt McDonald run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 15 Matt McDonald fumbled, recovered by Buff Matt McdonaldSimilar
Q2 2:43
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
21.9%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Christian SimsSimilar
Q2 2:43
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+3
21.8%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 3 yds to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q2 1:45
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
21.3%
Sami Sir punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Quian Williams at the Buff 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15TD
9 plays · 54 yds · 1:3186% → 93%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
14.0%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 7 yds to the BOWLGREEN 47 BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jamari Gassett) to the Buff 40Similar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 16
OWN 40
+5
14.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 5 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+11
14.0%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 11 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
13.6%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Al-Jay Henderson for 2 yds to the BwGrn 42Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+11
12.8%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Justin Marshall for 11 yds to the BwGrn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
13.0%
Cole Snyder run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-10
12.5%
Cole Snyder sacked by Anthony Hawkins for a loss of 10 yards to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 20
OPP 21
+20
13.4%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Boobie Curry for 20 yds to the BwGrn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.2%
Mike Washington run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 16END OF HALF
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:146% → 6%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
6.2%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Christian SimsSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
5.9%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Jamal JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+23
5.6%
Jamal Johnson run for 23 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:227% → 7%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
6.6%
Jamal Johnson run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+1
6.4%
Jamal Johnson run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
6.4%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Cavon CroomSimilar
Q3 13:34
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
6.9%
Sami Sir punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:3694% → 95%
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
5.9%
BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Buff 32Similar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 18
OWN 32
-10
6.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Snyder,Cole rush right for 8 yards gain to the UB40, End Of Play PENALTY UB Holding (Doty,Tyler) 10 yards from UB32 to UB22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 28
OWN 22
+11
6.1%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 11 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 17
OWN 33
0
6.1%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Robbie MangasSimilar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 17
OWN 33
0
6.4%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Robbie MangasSimilar
Q3 11:58
4TH & 17
OWN 33
0
5.4%
Anthony Venneri punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19FUMBLE RETURN TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 3:256% → 2%
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
5.9%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Andrew Bench for 11 yds to the BwGrn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+27
6.0%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Andrew Bench for 27 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
6.8%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 4 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+17
6.7%
Matt McDonald pass complete to CJ Lewis for 17 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
7.0%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to CJ LewisSimilar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+16
6.7%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 16 yds to the Buff 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
6.7%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Tyrone BrodenSimilar
Q3 11:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
6.6%
Jamal Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 3Similar
Q3 8:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+97
2.4%
James Patterson 97 Yd Fumble Return (Alex McNulty Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:362% → 3%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
2.1%
Matt McDonald pass complete to CJ Lewis for 26 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+24
2.2%
Matt McDonald pass complete to CJ Lewis for 24 yds to the Buff 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
2.3%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 5 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+5
2.1%
Matt McDonald run for 5 yds to the Buff 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
2.3%
Ta'ron Keith run for 4 yds to the Buff 11Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
2.1%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Odieu HiliareSimilar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+11
2.5%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 11 yds for a TD, (Mason Lawler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:3797% → 98%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
3.3%
Mike Washington run for 3 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+6
3.3%
Mike Washington run for 6 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+8
3.0%
Mike Washington run for 8 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
3.1%
Mike Washington run for no gain to the Buff 47Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-10
3.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Snyder,Cole pass complete deep left to Johnson,Marlyn for 12 yards to the BGSU41 (Lorfils,Darius) PENALTY UB Holding (Bessent,Desmond) 10 yards from UB47 to UB37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 20
OWN 37
+10
3.2%
Cole Snyder pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 10 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
3.3%
Cole Snyder pass incomplete to Marlyn JohnsonSimilar
Q3 2:20
4TH & 10
OWN 47
+9
1.8%
Anthony Venneri punt for 43 yds , Jake Rogers returns for 9 yds to the BwGrn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 22DOWNS
12 plays · 57 yds · 3:572% → 1%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
1.6%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Christian SimsSimilar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+12
1.5%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Cavon Croom for 12 yds to the BwGrn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
1.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 8 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+6
1.6%
Matt McDonald run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
1.7%
Matt McDonald pass complete to CJ Lewis for 15 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
1.0%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Cavon Croom for 5 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+9
1.0%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Cavon Croom for 9 yds to the Buff 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 25
OPP 41
+15
0.9%
BUFFALO Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Jahmin Muse) to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
1.1%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to CJ LewisSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
1.0%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to Odieu HiliareSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 23
-9
1.0%
Matt McDonald sacked by Ibrahim Kante for a loss of 9 yards to the Buff 32Similar
Q4 13:23
4TH & 19
OPP 32
+8
0.6%
Matt McDonald run for 8 yds to the Buff 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 3:3899% → 100%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
0.8%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the Buff 25Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+28
0.8%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 28 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
0.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-2
0.7%
Cole Snyder sacked by DJ Taylor for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+4
0.8%
Mike Washington run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q4 9:45
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
0.4%
Anthony Venneri punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:530% → 0%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
0.3%
Matt McDonald sacked by Max Michel for a loss of 7 yards to the BwGrn 13Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+12
0.3%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 12 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
0.3%
Matt McDonald pass incomplete to CJ LewisSimilar
Q4 7:52
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
0.2%
Sami Sir punt for 61 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 4:42100% → 100%
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
0.4%
Mike Washington run for 6 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+2
0.3%
Mike Washington run for 2 yds to the Buff 15Similar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+3
0.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
0.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for no gain to the Buff 18Similar
Q4 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+3
0.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 3 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+4
0.3%
Al-Jay Henderson run for 4 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q4 3:10
4TH & 3
OWN 25
+1
0.2%
Anthony Venneri punt for 38 yds , Jake Rogers returns for 1 yd to the BwGrn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · 27 yds · 2:110% → 0%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+28
0.1%
Nick Mosley run for 13 yds to the BOWLGREEN 49 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Keyshawn Cobb) to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
0.2%
Nick Mosley run for 4 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+1
0.2%
Nick Mosley run for 1 yd to the Buff 29Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 5
OPP 29
-6
0.1%
Camden Orth sacked by George Wolo for a loss of 6 yards to the Buff 35Similar
Q4 0:59
4TH & 11
OPP 35
0
0.1%
Camden Orth pass incomplete to Griffin LittleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:59100% → 100%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
0.1%
Kneel down by Buffalo at UB33 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 33
-1
0.1%
Kneel down by Buffalo at UB32 for loss of 1 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:43
Mike Washington run for 92 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)
-7.6
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:45
Al-Jay Henderson run for 7 yds to the BOWLGREEN 47 BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jamari Gassett) to the Buff 40
-7.4
TD · Q2 0:14
Mike Washington run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)
-6.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com