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Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreAKR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:48 · DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 8 yds to the Ohio 20 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:31: Nolan McCormick run for 8 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — OHIO win probability +4.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:29: Sieh Bangura run for 12 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — OHIO win probability +7.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:38: Clyde Price III run for 4 yds for a TD, (Noah Perez KICK) — AKR win probability +7.8 pts (now 25%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:14: Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 30 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK) — OHIO win probability +7.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:13: Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sieh Bangura for 25 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos PAT MISSED) — OHIO win probability +5.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3AKR made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 10:37AKR 4th & 2 at OHIO 35, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call24.3%57% to convertField goal24.2%−0.145% to makePunt24.1%−0.2average punt
- Q1 10:37OHIO 4th & 1 at AKR 10, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call76.1%71% to convertField goal75.8%−0.288% to makePunt75.2%−0.9average punt
- Q2 13:26AKR 4th & 7 at OHIO 7, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.8% before the snapGo for it19.2%−0.328% to convertField goalTheir call19.5%91% to makePunt15.4%−4.0average punt
- Q2 6:28AKR 4th & 20 at OHIO 24, down 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.8% before the snapGo for it11.9%−1.99% to convertField goalTheir call13.9%68% to makePunt9.4%−4.4average punt
- Q2 2:31OHIO 4th & 1 at AKR 17, up 15Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call86.3%71% to convertField goal85.6%−0.780% to makePunt83.9%−2.4average punt
- Q3 7:26AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 44, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snapGo for it10.7%−0.732% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.5%average punt
- Q3 1:09AKR 4th & 6 at OHIO 26, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%−<0.139% to convertField goal0.3%64% to makePunt-0.2%−0.5average punt
- Q4 11:48OHIO 4th & 9 at OHIO 40, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snapGo for it98.5%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.6%average punt
- Q4 11:48AKR 4th & 7 at OHIO 28, down 21Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.3%−0.237% to convertField goal1.5%60% to makePunt0.3%−1.2average punt
- Q4 5:24AKR 4th & 1 at OHIO 1, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.7%59% to convertField goal1.1%−0.694% to makePunt0.1%−1.6average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 7 of 8AKR made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 14:48OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.7%97% to makeGo for two75.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:31OHIO Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.1%97% to makeGo for two80.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:29OHIO Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.6%97% to makeGo for two86.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:45AKR Touchdown, down 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call21.6%97% to makeGo for two21.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:00OHIO Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.8%97% to makeGo for two86.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:38AKR Touchdown, down 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.2%97% to makeGo for two20.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:14OHIO Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.6%97% to makeGo for two88.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:13OHIO Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call97.3%97% to makeGo for two97.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:54OHIO Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:54AKR Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.0%97% to makeGo for two2.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:24AKR Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.4%97% to makeGo for two3.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:08OHIO Touchdown, up 20 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.5%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartOHIODrive 1TD1 play · 75 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
74.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 75 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2DOWNS12 plays · 43 yds · 4:0625% → 25%
Q1 14:43
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+8
74.7%
DJ Irons pass complete to TJ Banks for 8 yds to the Akron 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
74.7%
DJ Irons pass complete to Clyde Price III for 3 yds to the Akron 35Similar
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
74.7%
DJ Irons pass complete to Clyde Price III for 6 yds to the Ohio 48Similar
Q1 14:43
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+5
74.7%
DJ Irons pass complete to Alex Adams for 5 yds to the Ohio 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
74.7%
DJ Irons pass complete to Daniel George for 3 yds to the Ohio 40Similar
Q1 10:37
4TH & 2
OPP 35
-2
74.7%
DJ Irons pass complete to Alex Adams for a loss of 2 yards to the Ohio 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3TD15 plays · 63 yds · 7:0675% → 80%
Q1 10:37
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+12
75.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to James Bostic for 12 yds to the Akron 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+6
75.4%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Tyler Foster for 6 yds to the Akron 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
75.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 35Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 12
OPP 35
-5
75.4%
OHIO Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Kurtis Rourke) to the Akron 40Similar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 15
OPP 38
+19
75.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Will Kacmarek for 19 yds to the Akron 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4FG11 plays · 61 yds · 4:5921% → 22%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+23
79.0%
DJ Irons pass complete to Daniel George for 23 yds to the Ohio 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
78.3%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 11 yds to the Ohio 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+11
77.9%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 11 yds to the Ohio 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
78.4%
DJ Irons pass complete to Clyde Price III for 1 yd to the Ohio 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 5TD7 plays · 89 yds · 3:5083% → 91%
Q2 13:19
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+19
83.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 19 yds to the Akron 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 12
OPP 35
-8
83.7%
Kurtis Rourke sacked by Antavious Fish for a loss of 8 yards to the Akron 43Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 20
OPP 43
+19
83.0%
AKRON Penalty, Personal Foul (KJ Martin) to the Akron 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6FG8 plays · 51 yds · 3:0114% → 15%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
86.1%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 32 yds to the Ohio 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
84.9%
DJ Irons pass complete to Daniel George for 14 yds to the Ohio 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
84.5%
DJ Irons pass complete to Alex Adams for 15 yds to the Ohio 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
84.5%
DJ Irons pass complete to Daniel George for no gain to the Ohio 14Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-5
84.5%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for a loss of 5 yards to the Ohio 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7DOWNS11 plays · 63 yds · 3:5289% → 91%
Q2 6:23
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+21
89.1%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Will Kacmarek for 21 yds to the Ohio 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
89.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 3
50
+3
89.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 3 yds to the Akron 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+21
89.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 21 yds to the Akron 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 15
OPP 31
+14
89.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 14 yds to the Akron 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8TD13 plays · 83 yds · 1:4612% → 19%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
88.1%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 6 yds to the Akron 23Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+12
88.2%
DJ Irons pass complete to Daniel George for 12 yds to the Akron 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
88.3%
DJ Irons pass complete to Daniel George for 8 yds to the Akron 38Similar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+20
88.0%
DJ Irons pass complete to Alex Adams for 20 yds to the Ohio 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
86.4%
DJ Irons pass complete to Tristian Brank for 11 yds to the Ohio 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+15
86.0%
IRONS, DJ pass to the left incomplete intended for GEORGE, Daniel thrown to the OHI0; QB hurried by DUGAN, Bryce. PENALTY OHI Pass Interference on BIRCHETTE, Justin enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the OHI9 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+10
86.0%
OHIO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Vonnie Watkins) to the Ohio 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9TD6 plays · 78 yds · 0:4184% → 86%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
84.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to James Bostic for 13 yds to the Ohio 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
84.2%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 22 yds to the Akron 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
85.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 5 yds to the Akron 38Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+11
85.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 11 yds to the Akron 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+26
85.5%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 26 yds to the Akron 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10TD12 plays · 65 yds · 3:2215% → 25%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+19
86.0%
DJ Irons pass complete to Daniel George for 19 yds to the Ohio 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
84.4%
DJ Irons pass complete to Daniel George for 11 yds to the Ohio 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
83.8%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 13 yds to the Ohio 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
83.4%
DJ Irons pass complete to Clyde Price III for 1 yd to the Ohio 21Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+10
83.7%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 10 yds to the Ohio 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
82.5%
DJ Irons pass complete to Clyde Price III for 7 yds to the Ohio 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 11TD7 plays · 60 yds · 2:1682% → 90%
Q3 11:30
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-10
81.2%
ROURKE, Kurtis pass to the left incomplete intended for WIGLUSZ, Sam broken up by LEWIS, Darrian at the OHI50; QB hurried by JONES, Victor. PENALTY OHI Holding on DENNISON, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the OHI41 to the OHI31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
82.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 9 yds to the Akron 32Similar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
89.7%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 30 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 1:4214% → 13%
OHIODrive 13TD6 plays · 65 yds · 2:1391% → 98%
Q3 7:26
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+15
91.0%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 15 yds to the Akron 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
91.8%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Miles Cross for 12 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
97.6%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sieh Bangura for 25 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 14FUMBLE RETURN TD2 plays · -6 yds · 0:134% → 1%
AKRDrive 15TD13 plays · 72 yds · 4:541% → 2%
Q3 4:48
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+5
99.4%
DJ Irons pass complete to Daniel George for 5 yds to the Akron 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
99.5%
DJ Irons pass complete to Tristian Brank for 22 yds to the Ohio 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
99.4%
DJ Irons pass complete to Tristian Brank for 10 yds to the Ohio 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+22
99.6%
DJ Irons pass complete to Alex Adams for 22 yds to the Ohio 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.6%
IRONS, DJ pass to the right incomplete intended for JACQUES-LOUIS, Shocky broken up by BIRCHETTE, Justin at the OHI0. PENALTY OHI Unsportsmanlike Conduct on HUNTER II, Dontay declined OHI Pass Interference on BIRCHETTE, Justin enforced 2 yards to the OHI2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 16PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 3:0099% → 100%
AKRDrive 17TD16 plays · 83 yds · 6:241% → 4%
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
98.9%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 13 yds to the Akron 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
98.9%
DJ Irons pass complete to Daniel George for 5 yds to the Akron 35Similar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+34
98.9%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 34 yds to the Ohio 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
2ND & 15
OPP 36
+8
98.9%
DJ Irons pass complete to Daniel George for 8 yds to the Ohio 28Similar
Q4 11:48
4TH & 7
OPP 28
+8
98.9%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 8 yds to the Ohio 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
99.1%
DJ Irons pass complete to Clyde Price III for 3 yds to the Ohio 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 18TD6 plays · 48 yds · 1:4199% → 100%
Q4 4:49
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+42
99.3%
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Jacoby Jones for 42 yds to the Akron 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19INT6 plays · 28 yds · 1:210% → 0%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
99.7%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 4 yds to the Akron 35Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+9
99.7%
DJ Irons pass complete to Tristian Brank for 9 yds to the Akron 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+15
99.7%
DJ Irons pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 15 yds to the Ohio 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 20END OF GAME3 plays · -9 yds · 1:40100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
3RD & 16
OWN 13
0
99.9%
[NHSG] Kneel down by ROURKE, Kurtis at OHI10 (team loss of 3), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:38
Clyde Price III run for 4 yds for a TD, (Noah Perez KICK)
-7.8
TD · Q2 9:29
Sieh Bangura run for 12 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
+7.7
TD · Q3 9:14
Kurtis Rourke pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 30 yds for a TD, (Nathanial Vakos KICK)
+7.5