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TOL

Toledo 52 at Northern Illinois 32

NIU
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:42 · Tom Foley punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the Toled 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 60Home team on offense−16.2Score differential−7.9Garbage-time factor−2.9Pregame prior−8.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:57: Justin Lynch run for 15 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) — NIU win probability +3.1 pts (now 38%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:46: Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 11 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +3.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 13:57: Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +8.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:27: Quinyon Mitchell 20 Yd Interception Return (Thomas Cluckey Kick) — TOL win probability +13.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:20: Ethan Hampton pass complete to Messiah Travis for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — NIU win probability +2.5 pts (now 3%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:56TOL 4th & 2 at NIU 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.2%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    64.1%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    63.6%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:42NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:42NIU 4th & 12 at NIU 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:05TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 29, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    83.4%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:59TOL 4th & 11 at NIU 49, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.2%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:45TOL 4th & 18 at TOL 47, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:40NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 14, down 28
    Close callPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:03TOL 4th & 6 at NIU 15, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:26NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 20, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:03NIU 4th & 11 at TOL 28, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.4%
    60% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:27NIU 4th & 1 at TOL 29, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:29NIU 4th & 2 at NIU 43, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4TOL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 11:56TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:22TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:57NIU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:46TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 13:57TOL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:27TOL Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:45TOL Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:56NIU Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    0.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:20NIU Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    1.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 4:02TOL Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 0:48NIU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    0.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 2:5563% → 63%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
37.4%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q1 14:36
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+6
37.5%
Jacquez Stuart run for 6 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q1 14:19
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+8
37.6%
Jacquez Stuart run for 8 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+43
37.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 43 yds to the NoIll 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
37.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the NoIll 9Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+1
37.8%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the NoIll 10Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+6
38.0%
Devin Maddox run for 6 yds to the NoIll 4Similar
Q1 11:56
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+4
37.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 4 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2INT TD
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:1037% → 35%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
37.3%
Harrison Waylee run for 2 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-25
35.1%
Quinyon Mitchell 25 Yd Interception Return (Thomas Cluckey Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3TD
13 plays · 69 yds · 6:0035% → 38%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
35.0%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+4
36.5%
Justin Lynch run for 4 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+4
36.8%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 4 yds to the NoIll 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
36.6%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+5
35.1%
Antario Brown run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 2
50
+4
35.2%
Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+16
35.1%
Antario Brown run for 16 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
35.1%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+5
35.0%
PENALTY TOL Offside 5 yards from TOL27 to TOL22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+7
34.8%
Jaiden Credle run for 7 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
37.9%
Justin Lynch run for 15 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4TD
5 plays · 73 yds · 0:4864% → 69%
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
36.3%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the Toled 28Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+26
36.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 11 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+35
35.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 35 yds to the NoIll 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
31.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 11 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:4532% → 32%
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
32.3%
Antario Brown run for 5 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
32.4%
Antario Brown run for 5 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
32.2%
Antario Brown run for 4 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
32.5%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to George GumbsSimilar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
32.3%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Kacper RutkiewiczSimilar
Q1 1:42
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
31.9%
Tom Foley punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 2:2869% → 80%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
31.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Mikel Barkley for 7 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+4
30.7%
Dequan Finn run for 4 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+28
30.3%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 28 yds to the NoIll 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
29.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Devin Maddox for 1 yd to the NoIll 32Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 32
0
29.6%
Micah Kelly run for no gain to the NoIll 32Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 11
OPP 32
0
29.8%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Thomas ZsirosSimilar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 11
OPP 32
+15
30.4%
(14:55) No Huddle-Shotgun Finn,Dequan pass incomplete short right to Zsiros,Thomas PENALTY NIU Roughing The Passer 15 yards from NIU32 to NIU17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
29.3%
Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the NoIll 19Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+18
29.2%
Jacquez Stuart run for 18 yds to the NoIll 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
20.3%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7PUNT
12 plays · 22 yds · 4:5423% → 20%
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
23.4%
Harrison Waylee run for no gain to the NoIll 26Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
22.9%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+10
22.5%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Cole Tucker for 25 yds to the NORTHERNIL 46 for a 1ST down NORTHERNIL Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
22.8%
Harrison Waylee run for 3 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 13
OWN 36
+5
21.7%
PENALTY TOL Offside 5 yards from NIU36 to NIU41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+9
22.4%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Messiah Travis for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
50
+3
22.4%
Antario Brown run for 3 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q2 9:39
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+7
21.8%
Justin Lynch run for 7 yds to the NoIll 46 Justin Lynch fumbled, recovered by NoIll Antario BrownSimilar
Q2 9:13
3RD & 14
OWN 46
+2
20.6%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Harrison Waylee for 2 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q2 8:42
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
20.0%
Tom Foley punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the Toled 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8PUNT
15 plays · 31 yds · 4:2585% → 85%
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
15.5%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 8 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
16.0%
Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the Toled 28Similar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
16.3%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 7:05
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+1
16.0%
Judge Culpepper run for 1 yd to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
14.9%
Micah Kelly run for no gain to the Toled 30Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+11
14.7%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 11 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
14.1%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Thomas ZsirosSimilar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+11
14.1%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jamal Turner for 11 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
13.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
13.0%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q2 4:51
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+7
13.2%
Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q2 4:13
4TH & 1
OPP 39
-5
13.5%
PENALTY TOL False Start 5 yards from NIU39 to NIU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:08
4TH & 6
OPP 44
-5
15.3%
(04:12) Batzke,Jonathon punt 24 yards to the NIU20, out of bounds at NIU20 PENALTY TOL Illegal Formation 5 yards from NIU44 to NIU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:59
4TH & 11
OPP 49
0
15.4%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9INT TD
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:2319% → 6%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
18.7%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (-7 Yards) to the NoIll 11Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 14
OWN 11
0
18.5%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Kacper RutkiewiczSimilar
Q2 3:27
3RD & 14
OWN 11
-20
5.5%
Quinyon Mitchell 20 Yd Interception Return (Thomas Cluckey Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10INT
18 plays · 74 yds · 3:026% → 4%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
5.5%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+6
5.1%
Antario Brown run for 6 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+6
4.7%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to George Gumbs for 6 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
5.1%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Harrison WayleeSimilar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
5.4%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Messiah Travis for 9 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+4
5.0%
Harrison Waylee run for 4 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
5.6%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
5.0%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to George GumbsSimilar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+12
3.4%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Messiah Travis for 12 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
3.9%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to George GumbsSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+13
3.6%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 13 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
3.9%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Harrison Waylee for 10 yds to the Toled 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
3.8%
PENALTY TOL Delay Of Game 5 yards from TOL17 to TOL12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 5
OPP 12
+4
3.6%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Harrison Waylee for 4 yds to the Toled 8Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+5
3.3%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Harrison Waylee for 5 yds to the Toled 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
4.0%
Ethan Hampton pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
5.5%
Kneel down by Toledo at TOL17 for loss of 3 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12INT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:354% → 5%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
4.2%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the NoIll 24Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
4.5%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q3 14:14
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
4.8%
Ethan Hampton pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:2095% → 95%
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
4.9%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jamal TurnerSimilar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
4.7%
Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the NoIll 45Similar
Q3 13:18
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-8
4.8%
Dequan Finn sacked by Michael Kennedy for a loss of 8 yards to the Toled 47Similar
Q3 12:45
4TH & 18
OWN 47
0
5.1%
Jonathon Batzke punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:524% → 4%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
4.2%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the NoIll 5Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+5
3.7%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Harrison Waylee for 5 yds to the NoIll 10Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 5
OWN 10
+4
3.6%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Messiah Travis for 4 yds to the NoIll 14Similar
Q3 10:40
4TH & 1
OWN 14
0
3.5%
Tom Foley punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Adam Beale at the Toled 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15FG
8 plays · 40 yds · 3:2797% → 96%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
3.5%
Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+2
3.0%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
3.1%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+23
3.0%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 23 yds to the NoIll 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
2.7%
Micah Kelly run for 5 yds to the NoIll 14Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+3
2.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Micah Kelly for 3 yds to the NoIll 11Similar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 2
OPP 11
-4
2.4%
Dequan Finn sacked by Daveren Rayner for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 15Similar
Q3 7:03
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+33
3.6%
Thomas Cluckey 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:212% → 2%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
2.2%
Antario Brown run for 1 yd to the NoIll 18Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 9
OWN 18
0
2.0%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to George GumbsSimilar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+2
2.0%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Harrison Waylee for 2 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q3 5:26
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
1.8%
Tom Foley punt for 40 yds , Adam Beale returns for no gain to the Toled 40 Adam Beale fumbled, recovered by Toled Adam BealeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 1:3298% → 99%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+25
2.5%
Dequan Finn run for 25 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
2.4%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+8
2.3%
Tucker Gleason run for 8 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+8
2.1%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Devin Maddox for 8 yds to the NoIll 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
1.3%
Micah Kelly run for 4 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+15
1.0%
Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jamal Turner for 15 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:351% → 1%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.8%
Justin Lynch run for no gain to the NoIll 25Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
0.7%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 11 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
0.7%
Harrison Waylee run for 10 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+25
0.7%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Harrison Waylee for 25 yds to the Toled 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
0.7%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Cole Tucker for 6 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+9
0.6%
Antario Brown run for 9 yds to the Toled 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
0.6%
Kacper Rutkiewicz run for 9 yds to the Toled 5Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+5
0.9%
Antario Brown 5 Yd Run (Liam Soraghan Pass to Ethan Hampton for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19FG
11 plays · 22 yds · 4:391% → 1%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
50
+2
0.8%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q4 13:59
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+10
0.7%
Antario Brown run for 10 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
0.7%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Drew Cassens for 2 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 8
OPP 36
-5
0.7%
PENALTY NIU False Start (Nygra,Pete) 5 yards from TOL36 to TOL41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 13
OPP 41
+12
0.5%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Cole Tucker for 12 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+2
0.5%
Harrison Waylee run for 2 yds to the Toled 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
0.5%
Antario Brown run for no gain to the Toled 27Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-1
0.5%
Ethan Hampton sacked by Desjuan Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 28Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 11
OPP 28
0
0.4%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Kacper RutkiewiczSimilar
Q4 10:03
4TH & 11
OPP 28
+46
0.5%
John Richardson 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20TD
11 plays · 52 yds · 3:331% → 3%
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
0.5%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+14
0.5%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to George Gumbs for 14 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
0.4%
Ethan Hampton sacked by Jamal Hines for a loss of 10 yards to the Toled 48Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 20
OPP 48
+18
0.4%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Harrison Waylee for 18 yds to the Toled 30Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+1
0.4%
Harrison Waylee run for 1 yd to the Toled 29Similar
Q4 7:27
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+4
0.3%
Harrison Waylee run for 4 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
0.4%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Harrison Waylee for 9 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+13
0.3%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Drew Cassens for 13 yds to the Toled 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
0.4%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q4 6:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
2.9%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Messiah Travis for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21TD
11 plays · 40 yds · 1:5799% → 100%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
1.2%
Peny Boone run for 4 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+7
1.0%
Peny Boone run for 7 yds to the NoIll 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
1.0%
Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+12
0.8%
Peny Boone run for 12 yds to the NoIll 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
0.8%
Peny Boone run for 5 yds to the NoIll 9Similar
Q4 4:08
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+1
0.8%
Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the NoIll 8Similar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+8
0.2%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Lenny Kuhl for 8 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 2:510% → 0%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
0.1%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Messiah Travis for 10 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
0.1%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Messiah TravisSimilar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
0.1%
Ethan Hampton run for 6 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+2
0.0%
Antario Brown run for 2 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q4 2:29
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+11
0.0%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to George Gumbs for 11 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
0.1%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Antario Brown for 7 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+6
0.0%
Ethan Hampton run for 6 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
0.1%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Cole Tucker for 13 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+16
0.1%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Harrison Waylee for 16 yds to the Toled 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
0.1%
Ethan Hampton run for no gain to the Toled 4Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
0.0%
Ethan Hampton pass incomplete to Kacper RutkiewiczSimilar
Q4 0:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.3%
Ethan Hampton pass complete to Drew Cassens for 4 yds for a TD, (H. Waylee Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
0.5%
Kneel down by Toledo at TOL45 for loss of 3 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:27
Quinyon Mitchell 20 Yd Interception Return (Thomas Cluckey Kick)
-13.1
TD · Q2 13:57
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
-8.9
TD · Q1 3:46
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 11 yds for a TD, (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
-3.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com