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BALL

Ball State 17 at Central Michigan 16

CMU
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · J. Paddock takes a knee
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ seconds remainingGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:01: John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 2 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK) — BALL win probability +7.9 pts (now 34%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:43: Sidney Houston Jr. 4 Yd Fumble Return (Ben VonGunten Kick) — BALL win probability +17.6 pts (now 48%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:07: Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 17 yds for a TD, (Josh Rolston PAT MISSED) — CMU win probability +6.3 pts (now 70%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:14: Ben VonGunten 22 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +11.0 pts (now 50%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:11: Ben VonGunten kickoff for 54 yds , Irone Jackson return for no gain to the CMich 11 — BALL win probability +33.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 13 of 16BALL made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
  1. Q1 14:18BALL 4th & 5 at BALL 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:28BALL 4th & 2 at CMU 22, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.2%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:28CMU 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.9%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 11:28CMU 4th & 1 at BALL 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.9%−0.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    69.6%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:10CMU 4th & 10 at BALL 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    68.1%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:46BALL 4th & 20 at BALL 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−0.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  7. Q1 4:46CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.6%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q1 0:47CMU 4th & 1 at BALL 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    68.6%−0.8
    72% to make
    Punt
    66.4%−2.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 13:45BALL 4th & 9 at BALL 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 12:00CMU 4th & 13 at CMU 40, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−1.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 11:10CMU 4th & 8 at BALL 15, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    69.0%−5.0
    average punt
  12. Q2 11:10BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.2%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q2 8:38BALL 4th & 11 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  14. Q2 6:59CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 12, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  15. Q2 1:53CMU 4th & 16 at CMU 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.4%
    average punt
  16. Q2 0:57BALL 4th & 7 at BALL 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−1.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  17. Q2 0:40CMU 4th & 4 at CMU 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%
    average punt
  18. Q2 0:10BALL 4th & 14 at BALL 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−2.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  19. Q3 12:29CMU 4th & 1 at BALL 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    65.9%−4.0
    25% to make
    Punt
    67.5%−2.5
    average punt
  20. Q3 7:43BALL 4th & 1 at CMU 1, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    30.0%−3.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    20.1%−13.5
    average punt
  21. Q3 1:19BALL 4th & 3 at CMU 48, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%−1.6
    average punt
  22. Q3 0:03CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 11, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−0.3
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.9%
    average punt
  23. Q4 12:14BALL 4th & 2 at CMU 4, down 2
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.8%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    21.8%−14.8
    average punt
  24. Q4 8:42CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 34, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−3.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  25. Q4 0:11CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 34, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.1 ptsPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%−6.1
    average punt
  26. Q4 7:18BALL 4th & 2 at BALL 39, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.5 ptsPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%−3.5
    average punt
  27. Q4 3:13CMU 4th & 19 at BALL 39, down 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 7.0 ptsPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−8.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    46.3%
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%−7.0
    average punt
  28. Q4 1:23BALL 4th & 12 at BALL 19, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−12.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%
    average punt
  29. Q4 0:53CMU 4th & 4 at BALL 40, down 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.6 ptsWent for it · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.0%−3.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    39.6%
    34% to make
    Punt
    25.9%−13.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BALL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:00CMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:01BALL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:43BALL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:4227% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
72.6%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
72.6%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
72.6%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
72.6%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q1 14:18
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
72.5%
Lucas Borrow punt for 62 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:0072% → 72%
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
72.4%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Noah KoenigsknechtSimilar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+11
72.4%
Lew Nichols III run for 11 yds to the CMich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
72.4%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the CMich 21Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+9
72.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 9 yds Carlos Carriere fumbled, recovered by BalSt Malcolm LeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3MISSED FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5028% → 28%
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
72.1%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+1
72.1%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the CMich 24Similar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+2
72.1%
John Paddock pass complete to Tanner Koziol for 2 yds to the CMich 22Similar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+39
71.8%
Ben VonGunten 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4FG
15 plays · 52 yds · 5:1872% → 72%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
72.0%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+16
72.0%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Cade Conley for 16 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
72.1%
PENALTY CMU False Start (Swartout,Brayden) 5 yards from CMU41 to CMU36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+5
72.0%
Myles Bailey run for 5 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
72.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Lew Nichols III for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 1
50
0
72.2%
Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 1
50
+12
72.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Noah Koenigsknecht for 12 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
72.3%
Lew Nichols III run for 6 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+2
72.4%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+1
72.3%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the BalSt 29Similar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+3
72.1%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the BalSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
72.4%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Joel WilsonSimilar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
72.4%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Finn HoganSimilar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 10
OPP 26
0
72.2%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Finn HoganSimilar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+44
71.7%
Josh Rolston 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:2428% → 28%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.8%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 5 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
71.6%
John Paddock pass complete to Nick Presley for 6 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
71.6%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 4 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
71.3%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
71.5%
BALL ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (John Paddock) to the BalSt 26Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
71.5%
BALL ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (John Paddock) to the BalSt 26Similar
Q1 4:46
4TH & 20
OWN 26
0
72.4%
Lucas Borrow punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 3:5972% → 71%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
71.9%
Marion Lukes run for 2 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+3
72.1%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+2
71.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 2 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q1 4:46
4TH & 3
OWN 48
+6
71.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 6 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
72.3%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Carlos CarriereSimilar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+15
72.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Noah Koenigsknecht for 15 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
72.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+7
72.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 7 yds to the BalSt 22Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 1
OPP 22
0
72.2%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Noah KoenigsknechtSimilar
Q1 0:47
4TH & 1
OPP 22
0
71.1%
Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the BalSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7FUMBLE
1 play · -19 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-19
70.9%
John Paddock sacked by Donte Kent for a loss of 19 yards to the BalSt 3 John Paddock fumbled, recovered by CMich Thomas Incoom , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8TD
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:4072% → 76%
Q1 0:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
72.2%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the BalSt 1Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.9%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Rolston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1525% → 24%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
74.8%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+2
75.0%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 20
0
75.3%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Tanner KoziolSimilar
Q2 13:45
4TH & 9
OWN 20
+15
76.2%
Lucas Borrow punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 43 , Jordyn Williams returns for 15 yds to the CMich 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:4576% → 74%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
75.9%
Lew Nichols III run for 2 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 12
OWN 41
0
75.5%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Carlos CarriereSimilar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 12
OWN 41
-1
74.9%
Daniel Richardson sacked by Kyle King for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 40Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 12
OWN 41
-1
74.9%
Daniel Richardson sacked by Kyle King for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 40Similar
Q2 12:00
4TH & 13
OWN 40
0
74.4%
Luke Elzinga punt for 42 yds , Jayshon Jackson returns for no gain to the BalSt 17 Jayshon Jackson fumbled, recovered by CMich Ryan PelusoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11MISSED FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5077% → 76%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
76.5%
Daniel Richardson run for 3 yds to the BalSt 20Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 13
OPP 20
+5
76.4%
Lew Nichols III run for 5 yds to the BalSt 15Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
76.0%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Noah KoenigsknechtSimilar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+33
75.7%
Josh Rolston 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:3225% → 23%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
75.3%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 20 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
74.5%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Nick PresleySimilar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
74.7%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+9
75.2%
John Paddock run for 9 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+2
74.8%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
74.0%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+1
74.5%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 11
50
0
74.8%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 8:38
4TH & 11
50
0
77.0%
Lucas Borrow punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jordyn Williams at the CMich 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3976% → 76%
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
75.9%
Lew Nichols III run for 5 yds to the CMich 17Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 5
OWN 17
-8
75.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bailey,Myles rush right for 0 yards to the CMU17 (Houston,Sidney) PENALTY CMU Chop Block (Kimbrough,Jamezz) 8 yards from CMU17 to CMU09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 13
OWN 9
+3
75.7%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the CMich 12Similar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 10
OWN 12
0
75.2%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Irone JacksonSimilar
Q2 6:59
4TH & 10
OWN 12
0
75.5%
Luke Elzinga punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 14TD
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:5825% → 34%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
75.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 11 yds to the CMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
74.4%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+13
74.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 13 yds to the CMich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
74.4%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 12 yds to the CMich 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
65.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 2 yds for a TD, (Ben VonGunten KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 3:0270% → 68%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
69.7%
Daniel Richardson run for 5 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
69.9%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the CMich 26Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+5
69.1%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Finn Hogan for 5 yds to the CMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
70.0%
Lew Nichols III run for 17 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
71.8%
Myles Bailey run for 1 yd to the CMich 49Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 9
OWN 49
-7
71.5%
Daniel Richardson sacked by Jack Sape for a loss of 7 yards to the CMich 42Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 16
OWN 42
0
68.8%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Carlos CarriereSimilar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 16
OWN 42
0
67.7%
Luke Elzinga punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5630% → 28%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
69.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 5 yds to the BalSt 19Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+2
69.7%
John Paddock pass complete to Carson Steele for 2 yds to the BalSt 17Similar
Q2 1:53
3RD & 7
OWN 17
0
70.7%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Tanner KoziolSimilar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 7
OWN 17
+1
71.7%
Lucas Borrow punt for 47 yds , Jordyn Williams returns for 1 yd to the CMich 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:1770% → 69%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
70.1%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Lew Nichols IIISimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
69.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 6 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
70.4%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Kenny Brewer IIISimilar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
68.7%
Luke Elzinga punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jayshon Jackson at the BalSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:3030% → 27%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+17
69.6%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 17 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
69.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Carson Steele for 3 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
70.9%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 7
OWN 34
-7
71.8%
John Paddock sacked by Thomas Incoom for a loss of 7 yards to the BalSt 27Similar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 14
OWN 27
0
73.5%
Lucas Borrow punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jordyn Williams at the CMich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
71.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the CMich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:3170% → 71%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
69.7%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Joel WilsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
69.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the CMich 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+12
68.2%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 12 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
71.6%
Lew Nichols III run for 8 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+1
72.1%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the BalSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
71.5%
Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the BalSt 45Similar
Q3 12:29
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
70.8%
Lew Nichols III run for no gain to the BalSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 54 yds · 4:4633% → 34%
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
66.6%
Carson Steele run for 12 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
65.9%
Carson Steele run for 11 yds to the CMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
64.8%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+14
64.5%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 14 yds to the CMich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
64.5%
Vaughn Pemberton run for 6 yds to the CMich 10Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+8
64.5%
John Paddock pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 8 yds to the CMich 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
64.5%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the CMich 3Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
64.5%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the CMich 1Similar
Q3 12:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
65.7%
John Paddock run for no gain to the CMich 1Similar
Q3 7:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.3%
John Paddock run for no gain to the CMich 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22FUMBLE RETURN TD
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0070% → 52%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+9
69.5%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 9 yds to the CMich 10Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 1
OWN 10
+1
69.7%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the CMich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
69.7%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Jalen McGaughySimilar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+4
52.1%
Sidney Houston Jr. 4 Yd Fumble Return (Ben VonGunten Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:4835% → 37%
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
65.4%
Carson Steele run for 20 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
62.1%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+4
61.6%
Jayshon Jackson run for 4 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q3 2:07
3RD & 3
OPP 48
0
61.7%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q3 1:19
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
63.5%
Lucas Borrow punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1667% → 64%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
66.7%
Lew Nichols III run for 6 yds to the CMich 10Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 4
OWN 10
+1
66.9%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the CMich 11Similar
Q3 1:19
3RD & 3
OWN 11
0
65.3%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Carlos CarriereSimilar
Q3 0:03
4TH & 3
OWN 11
0
64.1%
Luke Elzinga punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jayshon Jackson at the BalSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 25TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 1:3270% → 73%
Q3 2:07
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+17
70.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 17 yds for a TD, (Josh Rolston PAT MISSED)Similar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
69.0%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Irone JacksonSimilar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
68.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 3 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q3 0:35
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+9
67.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
50
+32
71.2%
Myles Bailey run for 32 yds to the BalSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
72.5%
Shotgun Richardson,Daniel pass complete short middle to Bailey,Myles for 2 yards to the BSU16 (Potts,Tyler) PENALTY CMU Holding (Heinzen,Davis) 10 yards from BSU18 to BSU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 20
OPP 28
+10
71.8%
Myles Bailey run for 10 yds to the BalSt 18Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+1
72.5%
Myles Bailey run for 1 yd to the BalSt 17Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+1
72.5%
Myles Bailey run for 1 yd to the BalSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 26FG
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:4638% → 50%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
62.0%
Carson Steele run for 6 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+13
60.9%
Carson Steele run for 13 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
60.9%
Carson Steele run for 8 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+16
59.0%
John Paddock pass complete to Brady Hunt for 16 yds to the CMich 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
58.9%
Carson Steele run for 5 yds to the CMich 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+3
58.9%
Carson Steele run for 3 yds to the CMich 4Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 4
0
60.7%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Jayshon JacksonSimilar
Q4 12:14
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+22
49.8%
Ben VonGunten 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 27PUNT
20 plays · 23 yds · 12:0353% → 30%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
52.5%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the CMich 12Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+10
52.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 10 yds to the CMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
52.9%
Myles Bailey run for no gain to the CMich 22Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-10
52.7%
Shotgun Bailey,Myles rush right for 2 yards gain to the CMU24 (Potts,Tyler) PENALTY CMU Holding (Ferris,Tyden) 10 yards from CMU22 to CMU12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 20
OWN 12
+21
52.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 21 yds to the CMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
53.7%
Myles Bailey run for no gain to the CMich 33Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+1
53.4%
Myles Bailey run for 1 yd to the CMich 34Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
51.6%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Carlos CarriereSimilar
Q4 8:42
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
48.5%
Luke Elzinga punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jayshon Jackson at the BalSt 31Similar
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
32.9%
Lew Nichols III run for 1 yd to the CMich 12Similar
Q4 0:11
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+10
32.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 10 yds to the CMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
33.3%
Myles Bailey run for no gain to the CMich 22Similar
Q4 0:11
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-10
32.7%
Shotgun Bailey,Myles rush right for 2 yards gain to the CMU24 (Potts,Tyler) PENALTY CMU Holding (Ferris,Tyden) 10 yards from CMU22 to CMU12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:11
2ND & 20
OWN 12
+21
32.3%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 21 yds to the CMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
34.2%
Myles Bailey run for no gain to the CMich 33Similar
Q4 0:11
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+1
33.9%
Myles Bailey run for 1 yd to the CMich 34Similar
Q4 0:11
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
32.2%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Carlos CarriereSimilar
Q4 0:11
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
30.0%
Luke Elzinga punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jayshon Jackson at the BalSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2452% → 54%
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
47.9%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+1
46.7%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 34Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
49.5%
John Paddock pass incomplete to Brady HuntSimilar
Q4 8:42
4TH & 7
OWN 34
+5
51.6%
PENALTY CMU Delay Of Game (Cochran,Dakota) 5 yards from BSU34 to BSU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:18
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
45.6%
Lucas Borrow punt for 59 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 29PUNT
9 plays · 59 yds · 4:0550% → 45%
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+40
49.8%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Finn Hogan for 25 yds to the CMich 27 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Jordan Riley) to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
55.7%
Marion Lukes run for 1 yd to the CMich 43Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+3
55.6%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 3 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+8
54.0%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Joel Wilson for 8 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+16
57.5%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 16 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
59.5%
Marion Lukes run for 1 yd to the BalSt 31Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 11
OPP 31
0
59.2%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Finn HoganSimilar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 11
OPP 31
-8
55.5%
Daniel Richardson sacked by Tavion Woodard for a loss of 8 yards to the BalSt 39Similar
Q4 3:13
4TH & 19
OPP 39
0
45.2%
Luke Elzinga punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 30PUNT
11 plays · 17 yds · 1:5061% → 68%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
39.4%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the BalSt 6Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+15
38.5%
Carson Steele run for 15 yds to the BalSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
35.8%
Carson Steele run for 2 yds to the BalSt 19Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 12
OWN 19
-5
34.9%
PENALTY BSU False Start (Schmidt,Seth) 5 yards from BSU19 to BSU14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 17
OWN 14
+1
34.9%
Carson Steele run for 1 yd to the BalSt 15Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 16
OWN 15
+4
37.3%
Carson Steele run for 4 yds to the BalSt 19Similar
Q4 1:23
4TH & 12
OWN 19
+14
32.1%
Lucas Borrow punt for 41 yds , Jordyn Williams returns for 14 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 31DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3046% → 40%
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
46.1%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Jalen McGaughySimilar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
45.4%
Daniel Richardson pass complete to Jalen McGaughy for 6 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
45.1%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Myles BaileySimilar
Q4 0:53
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
39.7%
Daniel Richardson pass incomplete to Carlos CarriereSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 32END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:5381% → 94%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
19.1%
J. Paddock takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 38
-1
6.5%
J. Paddock takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:11
Ben VonGunten kickoff for 54 yds , Irone Jackson return for no gain to the CMich 11
-33
TD · Q3 6:43
Sidney Houston Jr. 4 Yd Fumble Return (Ben VonGunten Kick)
-17.6
FG · Q4 12:14
Ben VonGunten 22 yd FG GOOD
-11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com