2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · Waldo Stadium
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Win probability · WMU
modelWMU aheadUNH aheadconfidence bandkey playWMU scoreUNH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:58 · Nick Mihalic punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Griffin Helm at the NHamp 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:34: La'Darius Jefferson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Palmer Domschke KICK) — WMU win probability +2.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:13: Jack Salopek pass complete to Sean Tyler for 76 yds for a TD, (Palmer Domschke KICK) — WMU win probability +2.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 14:42: Jack Salopek pass complete to Corey Crooms for 75 yds for a TD, (Palmer Domschke KICK) — UNH win probability +6.9 pts (now 16%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:07: Jack Salopek pass complete to Joshua Burgett for 3 yds for a TD, (Palmer Domschke KICK) — WMU win probability +4.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:15: Max Brosmer pass complete to Dylan Laube for 26 yds for a TD, (Nick Mazzie KICK) — UNH win probability +4.7 pts (now 7%) (top driver: UNH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9UNH made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 8:03UNH 4th & 9 at WMU 40, down 7Close callPunted · 16.4% before the snapGo for it16.4%32% to convertField goal16.4%−<0.134% to makePuntTheir call16.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 1:54UNH 4th & 13 at UNH 22, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snapGo for it13.7%−0.919% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.7%average punt
- Q2 13:22UNH 4th & 1 at UNH 29, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt8.8%−0.7average punt
- Q2 10:22UNH 4th & 14 at UNH 21, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snapGo for it3.0%−1.317% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.3%average punt
- Q2 8:15WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 44, up 28Close callPunted · 94.6% before the snapGo for it94.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.5%−0.2average punt
- Q2 8:15WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 44, up 28Close callPunted · 94.6% before the snapGo for it94.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.5%−0.2average punt
- Q2 5:09UNH 4th & 1 at UNH 30, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.7%−1.4average punt
- Q2 1:12WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 30, up 21Close callPunted · 95.1% before the snapGo for it95.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.7%−0.5average punt
- Q2 0:05UNH 4th & 7 at UNH 48, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snapGo for it5.1%−0.237% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.2%average punt
- Q3 15:00UNH 4th & 7 at UNH 28, down 21Close callWent for it · 5.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.2%−0.436% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.5%average punt
- Q3 11:24UNH 4th & 8 at WMU 48, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snapGo for it4.5%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.7%average punt
- Q3 10:23WMU 4th & 7 at WMU 12, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snapGo for it95.9%−0.435% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.3%average punt
- Q3 8:00UNH 4th & 7 at WMU 40, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.7%37% to convertField goal3.3%−0.434% to makePunt3.4%−0.2average punt
- Q3 6:23WMU 4th & 15 at WMU 43, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snapGo for it96.3%−0.617% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.0%average punt
- Q3 3:04WMU 4th & 15 at UNH 17, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snapGo for it96.8%−0.615% to convertField goalTheir call97.4%80% to makePunt95.7%−1.7average punt
- Q4 7:29UNH 4th & 19 at UNH 36, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.111% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 5:59WMU 4th & 8 at WMU 5, up 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 3:05UNH 4th & 2 at UNH 33, down 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 0:58WMU 4th & 7 at WMU 18, up 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 0:58WMU 4th & 7 at WMU 18, up 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UNH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 3:34WMU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.1%97% to makeGo for two86.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:13WMU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.0%97% to makeGo for two91.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:07WMU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.4%97% to makeGo for two96.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:15UNH Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.3%97% to makeGo for two5.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:23WMU Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:23WMU Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNHDrive 1PUNT15 plays · 34 yds · 6:3916% → 17%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
83.9%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Kyle Lepkowski for 9 yds to the NHamp 35Similar
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
83.9%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Adam Deese for 1 yd to the NHamp 40Similar
Q1 14:42
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+10
83.9%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Dylan Laube for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
50
+8
83.9%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Myles Thomason for 8 yds to the WMich 42Similar
Q1 14:42
3RD & 2
OPP 42
-12
83.9%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Dylan Laube for 3 yds to the NHamp 39 for a 1ST down NEW HAMPSHIRE Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Pop Bush) to the NHamp 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:42
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+4
83.9%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Sean Coyne for 4 yds to the NHamp 48Similar
Q1 14:42
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+11
83.9%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Joey Corcoran for 11 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2TD10 plays · 96 yds · 4:2983% → 87%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+17
83.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 17 yds to the WMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+10
83.5%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Corey Crooms for 10 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
83.5%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Corey Crooms for 9 yds to the WMich 44Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+25
83.8%
Jack Salopek pass complete to La'Darius Jefferson for 25 yds to the NHamp 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
83.9%
PENALTY WMU False Start (Sherwin,Jack) 5 yards from UNH31 to UNH36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+13
83.7%
Jack Salopek pass complete to La'Darius Jefferson for 13 yds to the NHamp 23Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+16
83.9%
Jack Salopek run for 8 yds to the NHamp 15 for a 1ST down NEW HAMPSHIRE Penalty, Personal Foul (Niko Kvietkus) to the NHamp 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
86.5%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 5 yds for a TD, (Palmer Domschke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 3PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 1:4015% → 14%
Q1 3:34
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
85.5%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Heron Maurisseau for 3 yds to the NHamp 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4TD3 plays · 78 yds · 0:4186% → 89%
UNHDrive 5FUMBLE3 plays · 14 yds · 0:5010% → 10%
WMUDrive 6INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 7DOWNS5 plays · -6 yds · 1:5310% → 9%
WMUDrive 8TD3 plays · 60 yds · 14:4284% → 90%
WMUDrive 9TD5 plays · 14 yds · 1:1591% → 95%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
91.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Abdus-Salaam,Zahir rush right for 1 yard gain to the UNH13 (Toscano,Ryan) PENALTY WMU Holding (Sherwin,Jack) 10 yards from UNH14 to UNH24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 20
OPP 24
+19
91.4%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Jehlani Galloway for 19 yds to the NHamp 5Similar
Q2 12:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.4%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Joshua Burgett for 3 yds for a TD, (Palmer Domschke KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:454% → 4%
Q2 10:22
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
96.1%
Sean Lehane punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Zahir Abdus-Salaam at the WMich 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0796% → 95%
Q2 10:22
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+6
95.7%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Corey Crooms for 6 yds to the WMich 44Similar
Q2 8:15
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+6
94.6%
Nick Mihalic punt for 42 yds , Dylan Laube returns for 6 yds to the NHamp 20Similar
Q2 8:15
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+6
94.6%
Nick Mihalic punt for 42 yds , Dylan Laube returns for 6 yds to the NHamp 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 12TD13 plays · 93 yds · 6:004% → 7%
Q2 8:15
2ND & 11
OWN 6
+15
96.5%
Shotgun Brosmer,Max pass incomplete short middle QB hurried by Fiske,Braden PENALTY WMU Personal Foul 15 yards from UNH06 to UNH21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-4
96.5%
Max Brosmer sacked by Dorian Jackson for a loss of 4 yards to the NHamp 17Similar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
97.1%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Mason Nelson) to the WMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
96.9%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Dylan Laube for 6 yds to the WMich 21Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 4
OPP 21
-5
96.7%
PENALTY UNH False Start (Michaud,Aidan) 5 yards from WMU21 to WMU26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+26
93.3%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Dylan Laube for 26 yds for a TD, (Nick Mazzie KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 9 yds · 1:0395% → 96%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-7
95.4%
Jack Salopek sacked by Josiah Silver for a loss of 7 yards to the WMich 14Similar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 12
OWN 19
+5
95.9%
PENALTY UNH Offside (DeVaughn,Pierce) 5 yards from WMU19 to WMU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
96.0%
Nick Mihalic punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Dylan Laube at the NHamp 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 1:074% → 4%
WMUDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · 7 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 16PUNT9 plays · 27 yds · 3:365% → 4%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+10
94.9%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Caleb Burke for 10 yds to the NHamp 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0196% → 96%
UNHDrive 18DOWNS4 plays · -5 yds · 2:234% → 4%
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-9
95.6%
Max Brosmer sacked by Braden Fiske for a loss of 9 yards to the NHamp 48Similar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 13
OPP 46
+6
96.0%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Caleb Burke for 6 yds to the WMich 40Similar
Q3 8:00
4TH & 7
OPP 40
-8
96.4%
Max Brosmer sacked by Corvin Moment for a loss of 8 yards to the WMich 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 1:3797% → 97%
Q3 6:23
4TH & 15
OWN 43
0
96.6%
Nick Mihalic punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dylan Laube at the NHamp 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 20INT3 plays · 9 yds · 1:263% → 3%
WMUDrive 21FG8 plays · 21 yds · 1:5397% → 98%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
97.3%
PENALTY WMU False Start (West,Addison) 5 yards from UNH12 to UNH17. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 22FUMBLE2 plays · 10 yds · 0:462% → 2%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
97.8%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Heron Maurisseau for 13 yds to the NHamp 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
98.1%
Max Brosmer sacked by Kenny Givens for a loss of 3 yards to the NHamp 37 Max Brosmer fumbled, recovered by WMich Kenny Givens , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 23TD7 plays · 37 yds · 2:5098% → 100%
Q3 2:13
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+9
98.4%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Corey Crooms for 9 yds to the NHamp 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
98.4%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Jehlani Galloway for 2 yds to the NHamp 19Similar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.8%
Sean Tyler run for 11 yds for a TD, (Palmer Domschke PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 24PUNT13 plays · 23 yds · 6:540% → 0%
Q4 13:35
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+3
99.9%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Dylan Laube for 3 yds to the NHamp 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.9%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Caleb Burke for 10 yds to the NHamp 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+15
99.9%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the NHamp 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
99.8%
Max Brosmer sacked by Warren Dabney for a loss of 4 yards to the NHamp 41Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 14
OWN 41
-10
99.9%
NEW HAMPSHIRE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NHamp 32Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 23
OWN 32
+15
99.9%
Max Brosmer pass complete to Dylan Laube for 15 yds to the NHamp 47Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 8
OWN 47
-11
99.9%
Max Brosmer sacked by Joshua Nobles for a loss of 11 yards to the NHamp 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:30100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 26INT TD4 plays · -6 yds · 0:360% → 0%
Q4 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
99.9%
Shotgun Thomason,Myles rush left for 1 yard gain to the WMU07 (Carter,Andre) PENALTY WMU Face Mask (Carter,Andre) 4 yards from WMU08 to WMU04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-10
99.9%
Shotgun Thomason,Myles rush left for 0 yards to the WMU04 (Barnes,Zaire), out of bounds PENALTY UNH Holding 10 yards from WMU04 to WMU14. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNHDrive 27PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 2:130% → 0%
Q4 3:05
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
100.0%
Sean Lehane punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Zahir Abdus-Salaam at the WMich 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 28PUNT5 plays · 13 yds · 2:07100% → 100%
UNHDrive 29END OF GAME3 plays · 20 yds · 0:580% → 0%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
100.0%
PENALTY WMU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Cannon,Quinton) 15 yards from UNH30 to UNH45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 14:42
Jack Salopek pass complete to Corey Crooms for 75 yds for a TD, (Palmer Domschke KICK)
-6.9
TD · Q2 2:15
Max Brosmer pass complete to Dylan Laube for 26 yds for a TD, (Nick Mazzie KICK)
-4.7
TD · Q2 12:07
Jack Salopek pass complete to Joshua Burgett for 3 yds for a TD, (Palmer Domschke KICK)
+4.1